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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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pigou

Quote from: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 06:37:13 PM
Is there anyone here who is still not feeling depressed and/or stressed out and/or very sad about the coronavirus?
I'm doing fine, though obviously it's not ideal and I'll be very excited when this is over.

Like everyone in the neighborhood where I live, I now wear a mask anytime I'm outside. During the height of the pandemic earlier this year, I had all my groceries delivered and didn't go anywhere. Now that cases are down, I go grocery shopping and meet up with friends for drinks (outdoor seating only). I go for runs late at night or early in the morning so I don't run into people, and skip the mask for those runs.

Teaching and research meetings are all via Zoom. The former is now running pretty smoothly. There are going to be some technical issues eventually, but students are much more understanding than in other years. Research meetings are actually more productive: those are going to stay on Zoom for the most part. Way easier to schedule a 15 minute call to touch base with coauthors when we would have communicated via Email before, or somehow felt the need to fill an hour until the next meeting, which is just way less productive.

My expenses have crashed dramatically and savings are way up (that's what happens when you stay home more)... I miss traveling the most, so once the virus is under control, I'm looking forward to a lengthy and overpriced vacation to make up for the missed trips.

As for my expectations: I'm still pretty optimistic about a vaccine. So far, all news have been good news (that one adverse reaction was a non-story and doesn't appear to have caused a meaningful delay). Everything looks to be on track for first availability in November, perhaps even end of October with an EUA. Putting some political pressure on the FDA for a quick EUA seems like a net-positive to me: every day we delay is a few hundred additional deaths and this sort of opportunity cost gets surprisingly little weight in normal times. Depending on which candidate(s) work out, we're looking at around 200m doses available by end of the year. I'm not in a vulnerable group, but I'll be in line for it the moment it becomes available to me, assuming the data suggest there's a good chance it's effective -- and given the number of research hospitals in the area, I'd expect it to be relatively early.

Will be far from over in other countries where the worst is probably still to come, but that's a separate problem.

spork

Quote from: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 06:37:13 PM
Is there anyone here who is still not feeling depressed and/or stressed out and/or very sad about the coronavirus?

I would have put myself in this category up until a week ago, but I have just hit a coronavirus wall. I think it's because I am starting to really and truly feel that normal is not right around the corner (instead of knowing it in a more purely intellectual way). I had no problem accepting temporary losses, but now it looks like some of these losses may be permanent or at least very long term.

On the plus side, at least I'm finding it a lot easier to empathize with others now.

To borrow from REM's "It's The End Of The World As We Know It," I feel fine. My life is simpler now. Far less driving. Far fewer pointless meetings. I can do yoga at home. I can still run outdoors. Lack of travel is a disappointment, but I can easily cope with that. I'm one of the lucky ones. I don't have to work in a meat-packing plant. My home hasn't burned down. No one is shooting at me.

It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Caracal

Quote from: Vkw10 on September 21, 2020, 08:57:45 PM
I think it was July when I decided that we would probably never go back to normal, that we'd have go forward until we reached a normal that's not quite the same as it was before. Some days I'm okay with that, testing alternative ways of accomplishing goals and even assessing whether the goals should change. Other days, I find myself overwhelmed with the rate of change. My journal reflects my seesawing emotions, but it also helps me see that my self-care routines are essential because my worst days occur when I've skimped on exercise, breathing exercises, and hobbies. I just wish our new normal would hurry up, because I'm tired of uncertainty.

The problem I have is that I don't think we are going to get to some stable "new normal" anytime soon. This does feel like the new normal. It doesn't feel like daily crisis usually now. Our kid has been in daycare all summer and (knocks wood) thus far, no cases there. Teaching is, for the moment, online (knocks wood) I've sort of got my risk calibrated. There are things I worried about in April, like going through a drive through window, or walking by people at a distance that don't remotely worry me anymore.

But, the problem I have is that I can't really get into the new normal because I don't believe it. I don't think there will be some new period of stability, but I also know this won't last forever. It seems increasingly clear that the end will be like the rest of it; slow, maddening and filled with lots of annoying personal choices with potentially huge consequences.

Hegemony

On the opposite end of the spectrum from Pigou's optimism, I was dismayed to learn that the powers that be could easily approve a vaccine that's only 30-50% effective. The flu vaccine is effective only 67% of the time, on average, apparently. As I am in several categories that mean if I get COVID-19, it's going to be very bad, 30-50% is not enough to make me sanguine about resuming normal life.  I'm actually doing fine in quarantine, but I'd rather not do this forever. Once we get one vaccine, I imagine the intense pressure to create more versions of it will lessen, and the improvements, if any, will come more slowly. That's depressing.

I also don't see how we have the infrastructure to approve, manufacture, and distribute millions of doses of vaccine in a month or so, or even three months or so. But I guess we'll see.

apl68

Very concerned about our nation and our state, since the virus has become too firmly established to have any hope of eradicating now.

Somewhat concerned about our local community.  Although we've got much bigger long-term concerns than the virus, what with our local economy and culture in such decline.  People here haven't been as hard-headed about not wanting to take precautions as what I've heard described elsewhere.

Not particularly concerned about myself, or my family.  My parents have been taking good care of themselves, and my brother and nieces are all healthy.  I take reasonable precautions to avoid catching or spreading, am healthy enough still to have pretty good odds of not being hit too hard if I get it, and if I should die I know where I'm going.  My routine of work and life is not drastically different from what it was.  And after last year's succession of family and personal injuries and emergencies, this year mostly feels like an improvement.

I just registered for our state's big annual librarians' conference.  It's online of course.  No getting away from familiar surroundings to talk shop face-to-face with colleagues.  It's hard to get excited about a conference that's just going to involve sitting in the office staring at a screen for hours.  I already do enough of that!

It's hard to think that the future in general looks very bright in a world where it looks like much of the Revelation of John is happening right before our eyes.  But if that is indeed what's happening, I at least know how it ends. 
All we like sheep have gone astray
We have each turned to his own way
And the Lord has laid upon him the guilt of us all

Larimar

Quote from: apl68 on September 22, 2020, 07:42:02 AM

It's hard to think that the future in general looks very bright in a world where it looks like much of the Revelation of John is happening right before our eyes.  But if that is indeed what's happening, I at least know how it ends. 


So I'm not the only one who has thought this.


jimbogumbo

Quote from: Larimar on September 22, 2020, 08:57:16 AM
Quote from: apl68 on September 22, 2020, 07:42:02 AM

It's hard to think that the future in general looks very bright in a world where it looks like much of the Revelation of John is happening right before our eyes.  But if that is indeed what's happening, I at least know how it ends. 


So I'm not the only one who has thought this.

Even the non-Evangelicals (moi included) have thought this.

Caracal

Quote from: Hegemony on September 22, 2020, 05:59:00 AM
On the opposite end of the spectrum from Pigou's optimism, I was dismayed to learn that the powers that be could easily approve a vaccine that's only 30-50% effective. The flu vaccine is effective only 67% of the time, on average, apparently. As I am in several categories that mean if I get COVID-19, it's going to be very bad, 30-50% is not enough to make me sanguine about resuming normal life.  I'm actually doing fine in quarantine, but I'd rather not do this forever. Once we get one vaccine, I imagine the intense pressure to create more versions of it will lessen, and the improvements, if any, will come more slowly. That's depressing.

I also don't see how we have the infrastructure to approve, manufacture, and distribute millions of doses of vaccine in a month or so, or even three months or so. But I guess we'll see.

Thats why so many different vaccines are in development. The ones still in early trials have very little chance of being the first ones approved, but it is worth investing in them because they might end up working better in the end. of course ideally one of the early vaccines works pretty well, but its probably going to be a slow process where things improve. Hopefully...

pigou

Quote from: Hegemony on September 22, 2020, 05:59:00 AM
On the opposite end of the spectrum from Pigou's optimism, I was dismayed to learn that the powers that be could easily approve a vaccine that's only 30-50% effective. The flu vaccine is effective only 67% of the time, on average, apparently. As I am in several categories that mean if I get COVID-19, it's going to be very bad, 30-50% is not enough to make me sanguine about resuming normal life.
I recall reading that the expectation for the two leading vaccine candidates is closer to 70%, so I don't think we need to worry about a very ineffective vaccine. But more to the point, the value of the vaccine is not just that it protects you if you get infected, but that you are less likely to get infected in the first place when people around you are vaccinated.

Quote
I also don't see how we have the infrastructure to approve, manufacture, and distribute millions of doses of vaccine in a month or so, or even three months or so. But I guess we'll see.
The leading contenders are already being manufactured in the US, with over 200m doses expected to be delivered before the end of the year. It's really the one thing the Trump administration did right in this pandemic: they put key people from vaccine manufacturers/pharmaceutical companies in charge and let them do their thing.

It's almost surely true that these doses are already stored in secure locations across the country. There's no reason to keep them in a central location and start distribution only once the vaccine has received approval. They can just be stored on military bases and distributed to hospitals and pharmacies over night.

I am, however, predicting a glut of articles about how it'll be predominantly rich and white people who will get vaccinated initially. Basically, same as always.

secundem_artem

Quote from: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 06:37:13 PM
Is there anyone here who is still not feeling depressed and/or stressed out and/or very sad about the coronavirus? 

On the plus side, at least I'm finding it a lot easier to empathize with others now.

You are a better person than I am.  I fully acknowledge that BLM, climate change, California fires, the death of RBG, the dumpster fire that is the Congress, widespread unemployment, food insecurity, vaccine hesitancy and a hundred other things are fine and worthy priorities on which I should focus my attention.

But I just can't.  Whatever emotional reserves I have are devoted entirely to doing a good job with my students, wondering where the hell my research program has gone, and keeping Mrs Artem safe from the pandemic.  There is only so much "input" my brain can take and I am totally out of bandwidth.
Funeral by funeral, the academy advances

Anselm

pigou,

I suspect that the wealthiest people can stay safe in their mountain cabin and wait this all out.  I suspect that the vaccine will go first to front line medical workers and teachers.

Depressed?  No, just tired of it all and I too can now only try to focus on my own safety and keeping up at work.  When I first saw grocery store workers in masks I felt like tearing up.  I just never thought this would happen here at home.  I also feel fortunate to have no loss of income like so many others have experienced.

I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

Cheerful

Six months in, our current best tool to beat this thing is wearing a mask?  Wasn't that the case for the 1918 flu, over a century ago?  I thought we'd be much farther along by now.

jimbogumbo

Quote from: Cheerful on September 22, 2020, 06:38:34 PM
Six months in, our current best tool to beat this thing is wearing a mask?  Wasn't that the case for the 1918 flu, over a century ago?  I thought we'd be much farther along by now.

Saw a picture of the crowd at a football game in 1918. There were side=by-side, but every one of then was wearing a mask.

Treehugger

#1018
Quote from: secundem_artem on September 22, 2020, 01:11:24 PM
Quote from: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 06:37:13 PM
Is there anyone here who is still not feeling depressed and/or stressed out and/or very sad about the coronavirus? 

On the plus side, at least I'm finding it a lot easier to empathize with others now.

You are a better person than I am.  I fully acknowledge that BLM, climate change, California fires, the death of RBG, the dumpster fire that is the Congress, widespread unemployment, food insecurity, vaccine hesitancy and a hundred other things are fine and worthy priorities on which I should focus my attention.

But I just can't.  Whatever emotional reserves I have are devoted entirely to doing a good job with my students, wondering where the hell my research program has gone, and keeping Mrs Artem safe from the pandemic.  There is only so much "input" my brain can take and I am totally out of bandwidth.

Just wait until you are retired. Then you can have the leisure to deplete your emotional reserves on different problems!

But seriously, I suppose I am mainly sad for me. To a certain extent I've enjoyed (yes, actually enjoyed) the restrictions that came with the response to the pandemic and I didn't mind a break from some of my favorite activities (travel/exotic birding/choral singing & directing) and even some of my friends (shhh....), but now I am wondering if I will be ever able to pick up these activities again. Ever since I was diagnosed with an advanced cancer last year, my oncologists best guesstimate at my life expectancy was 3 to 4 years total and recurrence-free survival at 1 1/2 years  (On the other hand I do have a small, but not negligible chance of being "cured.") So, I don't feel like I have forever to wait. Also, if I have to start treatment again, I will be at even higher risk than I am now, so unless the vaccine is really good, I will probably still have to (reluctantly choose to) restrict my activities and contacts.

I am trying to revive my choir. We are meeting outside with masks and social distancing and people are enjoying it. But we are just singing for fun as we aren't planning on in-person services anytime soon and at the moment the choir isn't enthusiastic about making videos or audio tapes. I suppose it's better than nothing, but I find directing pretty difficult this way. Hard to hear, hard to sing with mask on, rehearsals cancelled or not at the last minute due to weather, wind blowing music away, hard to get people to sing together when they are so far apart physically, losing two really good singers due to pandemic-related financial hardships, etc.

As far as travel goes, I am beginning to wonder if I will ever be able to travel abroad again in my lifetime. We had a trip to Mexico planned for this coming March. Back in March and April of this year, it was almost inconceivable to me that we wouldn't be traveling again an entire year later. But now it seems likely that we will have to give up that trip and other as-of-yet unplanned future trips.


Sigh.

And that's just me. I am also sad about the pandemic's general effects, not to mention the effects of all the other disasters we are facing.

kaysixteen

Which pharmaceutical firms would spend huge money to pre-make 200 million doses of an as yet untested and unapproved vax?