Post CV19 predictions

[clean]

How do you think that things will change after the CV19 issues have been resolved, or at least we get tired of talking about them? 
How long will the crisis last?
Will the illness have political requssions?  (who is looking better and who worse?)
Will you university change much?

Here is MY first Prediction:


I predict that there will be a Santa Clause Baby Boom this year.
With few places to go, what will people do?.... I wonder?
Will it by like after a blackout or a hurricane, only nationwide?

[Anselm]

Many SLAC's will bite the dust.

I am expecting higher inflation sue to the newly created money, just not in the next few months.  Despite the monetary relief we can expect an economic depression.  In fact, I am declaring it already here.  I won't wait for some survey or revised GDP figures as in normal times.  There will be a few sucker rallies in the markets but it may take a long time for a full recovery. 

The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.

Healthcare will adjust to not be so dependent on a global supply chain.

Many employers will see that some workers are more productive and happy working from home and will stick with that option.

[spork]

But it's too soon to make predictions!!! We can't respond now to changing circumstances!!!! We first need to wait for two, six, maybe twenty years to know we understand the problem!!!!

In the USA the pandemic will accelerate the shift to online commerce and away from national retailers known primarily for their brick-and-mortar operations. Several will close. I'm thinking of companies like Macy's, which, as its traditional customer base disappeared due to increased income inequality, should have shifted to focusing on its prime real estate holdings. Drive-to shopping mall complexes will close at a faster pace.

[Hibush]

But it's too soon to make predictions!!! We can't respond now to changing circumstances!!!! We first need to wait for two, six, maybe twenty years to know we understand the problem!!!!

If we develop a proposal for a Professor of Post-CV19 Studies, they may be on board in two years, they'd have published something by six, and they will be starting to understand the situation in depth by twenty. Who says the academy isn't useful?

[Caracal]

The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.

Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.

[writingprof]

The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.

Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.

Yeah, give us a break.  In five years we will barely remember this.

[Caracal]

The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.

Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.

Yeah, give us a break.  In five years we will barely remember this.

Don't know about that, but epidemics are not some new thing. Humans have been dealing with them for a very long time. That isn't to say that there hasn't been lots of adaptations in response to them, but in person connection is a pretty basic human need. I haven't seen a lot of people saying "hey now that I've realized I can just talk to the people I know on Zoom, I've realized I never want to go to a bar." God I'd love to go to a bar.

[writingprof]

As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.

[Caracal]

As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.

Yes, I recall that and I recall thinking, "what a fool."

[Parasaurolophus]

Oooh! Baseless speculation! Here we go:

How long it'll last: Officially, say, after three weeks of 0 new cases. Actually: Canada may be starting up again in the late summer. For the US, I fully expect you'll start up before then, and go through a few more waves of it all. Unless it really does peak by mid-April.

But I'm guessing there'll be a lull period, and we'll have to reintroduce some of these measures again a few months later. Not that we'll have the stomach do so in the same way again.

Personally: I predict my courses will be cut back significantly by the winter semester, and I may be offered some sort of crappy online lifeline because, before this all started, I volunteered to teach a mided-modality course at our satellite campus a ferry ride away (nobody else wanted to, and if we didn't, they'd parachute someone with seniority into the department to do it and they'd gobble up our other courses).

More broadly: lots of cutbacks and school closures, definite recession and possible depression. It'll take a very long time to recover from the job losses and lost wages (which translate to a slower recovery in a lot of sectors, especially service). Air travel, hotels, and tourism are screwed until the fall.


Oh. And renewed inaction on climate change, because "we can't afford it".


Politically:

As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.

IMO, these are the weeks when Biden definitively lost the election. I guess we'll see, and I suppose things could change, but I don't believe it for a second. He has no control over the narrative, and that vacuum favours Trump (whose pandemic approval rating is above 50%!). That's the one-punch of the one-two punch. The two-punch is the credible rape allegation against him which, even if it struggles to get air time now, will be brought to the fore by the Republicans. Plus, visible cognitive decline. He's a goner.

That's my American political prediction. That, and renewed momentum for M4A. Whether it's sufficient to carry it past the Democrats, however, remains to be seen.

Canadawise, I have no idea, but it probably ends with the Tories back in power and one last attempt to prop up a dying fossil fuel economy.

[Caracal]

Plus, visible cognitive decline. He's a goner.

Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.

[Parasaurolophus]

Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.

Nah. I've just been following the campaign extremely closely. And I have years of experience caring for someone who had dementia. Biden has always been stupid, but he hasn't always been this inarticulate. Even in the recent past. And no, it's not a stutter.

But you know what? Even if I were to concede that Biden seems every bit as mentally with-it as he was five years ago, and that his outrageous lies and general inability to put together coherent sentences unprompted (there are exceptions, but it's the rule) are just a "stutter", that still leaves:

1. His lack of control over the coronavirus narrative.
2. His lack of leadership with respect to the coronavirus crisis.
3. Credible rape allegations.

And those things alone are enough to sink even a good candidacy. Which his manifestly isn't.

(And: yes, my preference, as an outsider, would have been Bernie. That hardly makes me a "Berniebro". And: no, I don't tweet.)

[Caracal]

Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.

Nah. I've just been following the campaign extremely closely. And I have years of experience caring for someone who had dementia. Biden has always been stupid, but he hasn't always been this inarticulate. Even in the recent past. And no, it's not a stutter.

But you know what? Even if I were to concede that Biden seems every bit as mentally with-it as he was five years ago, and that his outrageous lies and general inability to put together coherent sentences unprompted (there are exceptions, but it's the rule) are just a "stutter", that still leaves

1. His lack of control over the coronavirus narrative.
2. His lack of leadership with respect to the coronavirus crisis.
3. Credible rape allegations.

And those things alone are enough to sink even a good candidacy. Which his manifestly isn't.

(And: yes, my preference, as an outsider, would have been Bernie. That hardly makes me a "Berniebro". And: no, I don't tweet.)

How is he supposed to control any of it? He's a presidential candidate, not the president. Genuinely perplexing take.

[Parasaurolophus]

How is he supposed to control any of it? He's a presidential candidate, not the president. Genuinely perplexing take.

I'm taking this to the 2020 election thread, so's not to derail further.

[mahagonny]

It will be OK to say having public 'wet markets' where you bring livestock in, slaughter them on sight or sell them live, with unsanitary conditions and risks, is a bad idea, without being called racist.