News:

Welcome to the new (and now only) Fora!

Main Menu

Coronavirus

Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

clean

Part of an email from a friend that HAS it!

"This is no picnic. The only thing they suggest, if not hospitalized, is over the counter pain relief of whatever brings you comfort. When I was in the hospital they told me that the steroids and z-packs they originally prescribed actually made the symptoms worse."
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

spork

Quote from: nebo113 on April 08, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
Quote from: mamselle on April 07, 2020, 04:27:33 PM
Quote from: spork on April 07, 2020, 12:17:21 PM
State authorities announced that six people from my neighborhood are dead from Covid-19.

I'm sorry for your neighborhood's loss.

The town next to mine announced their first known death yesterday.

M.

I am working with a few others to set up a FB site for our county to attempt to collect and disseminate Covid 19 information.  Would you all PM me about how the information was disseminated in your areas?  Thank you,

It was disseminated via the governor's office and broadcast in local media outlets.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

apl68

Still very few confirmed cases where we live.  Most suspected cases are coming back negative.  Just this morning I learned that a friend's husband has been hospitalized in the state capital with fluid on his lungs.  He has tested negative twice for Covid-19.  It's looking like he may have a cancerous mass.  Due to the epidemic, neither she nor anybody else has been allowed to be in the hospital with him.  It's a very hard situation for them.  They're now over two hours' drive apart.

Meanwhile my mother has been having to drive herself to the oncologist (again, over an hour away) for consultations, since she isn't allowed to have anybody with her.  Her treatments have been postponed until the end of this month in hopes of getting past the hospital lockdowns.
All we like sheep have gone astray
We have each turned to his own way
And the Lord has laid upon him the guilt of us all

clean

I was tempted to start another thread, but I think between this one and the Hypochondriacs thread we are covered, so Im going to start here and see IF I get sufficient answers. 

I am concerned about the deaths of the 20-60 year olds.  NOt that Im not concerned with the others, but I see news items about the people in this category not making it. The news is sort of making obituary notices for these younger people, and I can not tell if these deaths are common or not.  So help me with these thoughts, please:

How common are deaths in the 20-60 group?  Are they making the news because it is a warning to the younger folk that they CAN get it AND DIE from it? 

OR
Is this a relatively rare event, such that the novelty is newsworthy?

For Instance.... Airplane crashes just about anywhere on the planet seem to make the news.  Not because they are common but because they are rare. Still, IF one were to see one crash on the news every 3 months, for instance, then one may conclude that these death machines are falling out of the sky every 90 days!  However, they make the news BECAUSE they are so rare.

SO... Are deaths in these age groups so tragic to justify being on the news (and thus justifying my great fear to be around anyone because everyone is a walking virus factory looking to contaminate and kill me!) or are they just so rare that these deaths, and the tragedy that they represent, are novel and deserve special mention?

With Boris Johnson, (MY age) in the ICU, I m more concerned!  I dont have all of the health support that would be available to the UK PM, and yet all the kings horses and all the kings men still didnt keep him safe from the ER and ICU!!

How scared should I be?  (Cautious 2-3?   Moderate?  4-6, or Nuclear 8-10?  --- it IS out to KILL me/us?)

Thoughts?  (should this be its own thread?)  Is the news overfocusing on the young deaths, or are all ages dropping dead in short order?
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

bacardiandlime

QuoteIs the news overfocusing on the young deaths

Yes. They will tell us that 800 people died, but the story and the photo are about the young outlier.

Nobody is immune (as this is a new virus), but your chances of dying from it are low (even for the over 70 cohort, the death rate is something like 10%: so 90% survive).

mamselle

There are a number of analytical articles and websites on this.

I'll cite two but I do not have the epidemological background to determine how useful or reliable they might be.

   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

and

   https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/03/23/a-mortality-perspective-on-covid-19-time-location-and-age/

might start to answer your question.

A couple of posters here might want to weigh in as to the hermeneutics.

M.
Forsake the foolish, and live; and go in the way of understanding.

Reprove not a scorner, lest they hate thee: rebuke the wise, and they will love thee.

Give instruction to the wise, and they will be yet wiser: teach the just, and they will increase in learning.

secundem_artem

Quote from: nebo113 on April 08, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
Quote from: mamselle on April 07, 2020, 04:27:33 PM
Quote from: spork on April 07, 2020, 12:17:21 PM
State authorities announced that six people from my neighborhood are dead from Covid-19.

I'm sorry for your neighborhood's loss.

The town next to mine announced their first known death yesterday.

M.

I am working with a few others to set up a FB site for our county to attempt to collect and disseminate Covid 19 information. Would you all PM me about how the information was disseminated in your areas?  Thank you,

Why would you need it.  Your state dept of public health is almost certain to have the most up to date data and information already.  All a Facebook page will get you is a selection of half baked conspiracy theories and the usual scientific and statistical ignorance about things most Americans can't understand.  By the time you can post who has masks or toilet paper in stock, the news will be out of data anyway.

This is worth a read:

What We Pretend to Know About the Corona Virus Could Kill Us
Funeral by funeral, the academy advances

secundem_artem

Quote from: clean on April 08, 2020, 09:36:11 AM
QuoteSo when is the government going to send us free codeine (cough suppressant) so we don't infect others?
Quote


I have no idea what is being prescribed for treating the symptoms of CV19. I would think that codeine would not be ideal.  One of the symptoms is shortness of breath.  Things that would suppress ones ability to breath would not really be ideal.

What ARE doctors prescribing to treat the symptoms?

The most recent thinking is that cough suppressants are generally ineffective.  In high doses, Tessalon Perles (an ancient product now more commonly prescribed because it's non-narcotic and you know-- opioids) can be lethal.  Teens have been using Robitussin DM (dextromethorphan) to get high for the last few years -- Robo-Tripping.  As far as I can tell,treatment for Covid-19 is just supportive therapy - maintain airways and blood pressure, Tylenol + Motrin for the fever (lasts longer that way).  You can try DM syrup in the labeled dose if you want, but don't hold your breath as to how much help it's going to be.
Funeral by funeral, the academy advances

Caracal

Quote from: clean on April 08, 2020, 12:21:26 PM
I was tempted to start another thread, but I think between this one and the Hypochondriacs thread we are covered, so Im going to start here and see IF I get sufficient answers. 

I am concerned about the deaths of the 20-60 year olds.  NOt that Im not concerned with the others, but I see news items about the people in this category not making it. The news is sort of making obituary notices for these younger people, and I can not tell if these deaths are common or not.  So help me with these thoughts, please:

How common are deaths in the 20-60 group?  Are they making the news because it is a warning to the younger folk that they CAN get it AND DIE from it? 

OR
Is this a relatively rare event, such that the novelty is newsworthy?

For Instance.... Airplane crashes just about anywhere on the planet seem to make the news.  Not because they are common but because they are rare. Still, IF one were to see one crash on the news every 3 months, for instance, then one may conclude that these death machines are falling out of the sky every 90 days!  However, they make the news BECAUSE they are so rare.

SO... Are deaths in these age groups so tragic to justify being on the news (and thus justifying my great fear to be around anyone because everyone is a walking virus factory looking to contaminate and kill me!) or are they just so rare that these deaths, and the tragedy that they represent, are novel and deserve special mention?

With Boris Johnson, (MY age) in the ICU, I m more concerned!  I dont have all of the health support that would be available to the UK PM, and yet all the kings horses and all the kings men still didnt keep him safe from the ER and ICU!!

How scared should I be?  (Cautious 2-3?   Moderate?  4-6, or Nuclear 8-10?  --- it IS out to KILL me/us?)

Thoughts?  (should this be its own thread?)  Is the news overfocusing on the young deaths, or are all ages dropping dead in short order?

The death rates by age in the US are about the same as everywhere else and they are pretty low for younger people without pre existing conditions. I think two things are going on. One is just that young people who get really sick are more newsworthy. A 42 year old who ends up in the ICU and survives is more likely to write about their experience on social media than a person in their 80s. I could be wrong about this, but my impression is also that younger people are more likely to get infected than older people, which would stand to reason. A person in their 30s is, on average, going to come into contact with a lot more people on an average day than someone in their 80s. So when you see reports that a fairly high percentage of hospitalized people are younger, a lot of that is just because they make up a large number of cases.

The other part of this is about the public health messaging. Public health messaging tends to be aimed at people who aren't concerned enough about their health, not people like me and you who are overly concerned. When some doctor says in the news that people shouldn't ignore persistent stomach pain, they are really talking to the guy who has had a terrible stomach ache for a year and figures there's no reason to bother to go to the doctor. The problem is that I hear that and start thinking "huh, well I did have a stomach ache the other night after I ate the nachos and the huge bowl of ice cream and then 5 days later, I didn't feel great on that day when I had a really stressful day, maybe I have stomach cancer..." Same thing here. They really want to persuade younger people that this isn't something they want to get, and that it can be serious. That's probably the right message for the knuckleheads hanging out at beaches, and its also true enough. This is a lot worse than the flu and you don't want to get it. But it is also true that the risk is relatively low if you're youngish and healthy
















































































































secundem_artem

Quote from: clean on April 08, 2020, 12:21:26 PM
I was tempted to start another thread, but I think between this one and the Hypochondriacs thread we are covered, so Im going to start here and see IF I get sufficient answers. 

I am concerned about the deaths of the 20-60 year olds.  NOt that Im not concerned with the others, but I see news items about the people in this category not making it. The news is sort of making obituary notices for these younger people, and I can not tell if these deaths are common or not.  So help me with these thoughts, please:

How common are deaths in the 20-60 group?  Are they making the news because it is a warning to the younger folk that they CAN get it AND DIE from it? 

OR
Is this a relatively rare event, such that the novelty is newsworthy?

For Instance.... Airplane crashes just about anywhere on the planet seem to make the news.  Not because they are common but because they are rare. Still, IF one were to see one crash on the news every 3 months, for instance, then one may conclude that these death machines are falling out of the sky every 90 days!  However, they make the news BECAUSE they are so rare.

SO... Are deaths in these age groups so tragic to justify being on the news (and thus justifying my great fear to be around anyone because everyone is a walking virus factory looking to contaminate and kill me!) or are they just so rare that these deaths, and the tragedy that they represent, are novel and deserve special mention?

With Boris Johnson, (MY age) in the ICU, I m more concerned!  I dont have all of the health support that would be available to the UK PM, and yet all the kings horses and all the kings men still didnt keep him safe from the ER and ICU!!

How scared should I be?  (Cautious 2-3?   Moderate?  4-6, or Nuclear 8-10?  --- it IS out to KILL me/us?)

Thoughts?  (should this be its own thread?)  Is the news overfocusing on the young deaths, or are all ages dropping dead in short order?

According to my state Dept of Public Health, about 2/3 of those who test + are younger than 60 - roughly 700 vs 350.  The number of deaths is too small to be of much real use in determining risk but nearly all have been in those over 80, and mostly in nursing homes.

I'm not "that kind of doctor" but this will be close enough for our discussion here:

In general, with diseases like this, the young die due to an overwhelming immune response.  They drop their blood pressures, get shocky, don't perfuse their end organs due to the shock and expire despite heroic medical efforts.

The elderly die because they already have an existing cardiopulmonary or other problem. 

Dead is dead, but in general, you'll probably do better if you are young than if you have an underlying medical problem that is exacerbated by the virus.

I'm older than Boris and would put my personal concern level at 3.  Social distancing and soap & water are my friends and I will continue to employ them vigorously until this is over and/or they develop a vaccine and/or there is sufficient herd immunity in the community for me to pop up out of my bunker.

Then again, I don't live packed in with 8 million people in NYC.
Funeral by funeral, the academy advances

Anselm

What is the recommended criteria for returning back to normal life according to the epidemic experts?  Is it only when we have a vaccine or just when active cases mostly disappear?    Suppose it was completely wiped out but then appears again in one city.  Do we then repeat all of the social distancing procedures again in the entire nation?
I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

clean

I think, or at least hope that once this is 'under control', that we would revert to a S Korea model.  Heavy testing, and heavy contact tracing. IF someone comes down with anything looking like the illness, then the testing would kick in and find out quickly (unlike the early days here, where you had to meet criteria before you could even GET a test).  Contact tracing would seek out the people someone came in contact with and test them too. 

Once this is under control, this should not be as much of a problem.  We should have more testing kits and centers available once the flood is over, so this should not be as big a problem.

Of course social distancing will continue until there is a vaccine.  The 'stay home' orders may not need to continue once we are 'under control'  (I hope not longer than another six weeks, or June 1).  However, I think that people, and not the government, will still be leery.  Are you going to be venturing to a bar or movie theater with a lot of people you do not know sitting next to you?  Will you be in a rush to go to a restaurant for a sit down meal with lots of servers and other customers?    Will you fly anytime soon?  Take a cruise, anyone? 

And what if you are overweight/obese, diabetic or prediabetic, male,black, or have high blood pressure, more than one and are over 60?  These are the ones that seem to have a worse experience.  IF any of these are you, how cautious will you be? 

The earliest estimate for a wide spread vaccine is next January!  Are we patient enough?  Can we 'afford' to be patient, or will we return to the cartoon days of the headstone that says, "I died so that your 401k could live"? 
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

spork

I think after the first wave of infection SARS-CoV-2 will become like influenza -- a constant part of the natural environment that the public doesn't pay much attention to. I think that influenza kills ~ 15,000 people in the USA every year and it occasionally gets a brief mention in news outlets. Traffic fatalities and gun homicides/suicides, which occur at a greater rate, are mentioned even less frequently.

Supposedly the epidemiologist Michael Osterholm said on a cable show that in the USA Covid-19 will probably infect 50% of the population, 20% of those will get sick, 10% of those will be hospitalized and 1% of those hospitalized will die. That's ~ 33,000 killed by Covid-19 in the USA, which I think it a reasonable estimate.

I think Covid-19 has pointed out that the USA is, comparatively, a very unhealthy country. Major determinants of health lie totally outside our very expensive health care "system." Vast amounts of money are expended with very little effect on illnesses that are for the most part entirely preventable. But I doubt a pandemic is going to get people to wake up and smell the coffee.

It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Caracal

Quote from: spork on April 09, 2020, 03:50:42 AM
]

Supposedly the epidemiologist Michael Osterholm said on a cable show that in the USA Covid-19 will probably infect 50% of the population, 20% of those will get sick, 10% of those will be hospitalized and 1% of those hospitalized will die. That's ~ 33,000 killed by Covid-19 in the USA, which I think it a reasonable estimate.



Hmm, I obviously can't evaluate different estimates, but that seems, unfortunately, very low on hospitalizations vs deaths. In New York City about a fifth of those hospitalized have died. It is also way below most of the estimates I've seen, which again, I can't evaluate. To take an example, the Imperial College modeling people estimated that perhaps 15 percent of people in Spain were infected (that number has a really big confidence interval) Spain has had 15,000 deaths from COVID. The same percentage of the American Population would be over 100k just for 15 percent, never mind half the population. Again, I'm not trying to make estimates, just point out that I don't think those numbers make any sense.

nebo113

Quote from: namazu on April 08, 2020, 07:49:12 AM
Quote from: nebo113 on April 08, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
I am working with a few others to set up a FB site for our county to attempt to collect and disseminate Covid 19 information.  Would you all PM me about how the information was disseminated in your areas?  Thank you,
My county publishes a map and table with case counts by zip code.  I've seen other county health departments with maps showing case counts by town.  I can PM you some examples, if you'd like.  Of course, if your county or state's health department doesn't already publish this info somewhere, you'd likely have to source it from news reports.

Mostly, we sourcing from local gossip, unfortunately.  The state provides county level numbers but that's it.