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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: clean on September 18, 2020, 04:57:29 PM

Title: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: clean on September 18, 2020, 04:57:29 PM
President Obama was unable to get a justice approved during the election year.

Will the same hold true for Trump?  Will he be able to submit a name and have it approved before the next inauguration (whether he is re elected or not?)

Trump's party has a majority in the Senate, something that Obama did not.  However, with less than 60 days before the election and just over 3 months before the next inauguration day (regardless of who is elected president).

With this election poised to be contentious, will an even number of justices cause even more problems for either side (claiming that the election is being stolen)?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: ciao_yall on September 18, 2020, 05:08:06 PM
The vetting could get interesting.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 18, 2020, 05:16:38 PM
Didn't he release a list of names the other day?

He will absolutely replace her ASAP. The process might drag out past the election, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's squeezing another nominee in there before leaving office.

I expect a huge push for court packing. It may or may not work on Biden, who may or may not win anyway, but it's coming in the not-too-distant future.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: RatGuy on September 18, 2020, 05:28:02 PM
My friends who work in Washington say it's gonna be Cruz.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Diogenes on September 18, 2020, 05:39:54 PM
Unless it's Merrick Garland, it'll cause riots.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on September 18, 2020, 06:09:34 PM
I think he will get someone through before the next inauguration. I doubt that someone will be Cruz, for several reasons, not least of which is that Cruz is widely hated by Senate colleagues.

I also think this is not actually good news for Trump electorally. While a right wing judge keen on overturning Roe may juice up Republicans, it doesn't do much to bring independents towards Trump, and it will energize Democrats and Democrat leaning independents, especially women and young people, many of whom are not enthusiastic about Biden.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Aster on September 18, 2020, 06:23:35 PM
Who's Cruz?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on September 18, 2020, 06:28:46 PM
She tried so hard and held on for so long.

It might be more seemly to let the carrion crowing wait a bit, but I suppose that's not going to happen.

M.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 18, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
My money is on Rao.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: clean on September 18, 2020, 07:04:05 PM
Quote
Who's Cruz?

"lyin Ted Cruz"

one time presidential candidate (whose father helped assassinate President Kennedy - according to Trump)
Born in Canada, so not a legal presidential candidate (according to Trump's second Birther movement).

Currently a Senator from Texas.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 18, 2020, 07:07:20 PM
Amy Barrett?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett)
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Aster on September 19, 2020, 12:59:56 PM
I thought that you had to be a judge to even qualify for being a Supreme Court Justice.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 19, 2020, 01:58:33 PM
To the contrary, the Constitution doesn't list ANY qualifications. Not even citizenship.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 19, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
To the contrary, the Constitution doesn't list ANY qualifications. Not even citizenship.

Obama, then?  (Just kidding.)

If anyone's interested, here's what conservatives are thinking right now:

1) It would be amazing if Trump rammed someone through.

2) But that would assure a Biden victory and a Democratic Senate.

3) And Democrats would get their revenge by packing the Court.

4) But since numbers three and four are probably going to happen anyway, let's go for it.

5) But Collins, Murkowski, Romney, and _______ will conspire to screw us.

6) So the whole thing is a pipe dream.

7) Still, it would have been nice to find out whom Trump's new nominee supposedly raped, decades ago.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 19, 2020, 04:10:59 PM

If anyone's interested, here's what conservatives are thinking right now:

1) It would be amazing if Trump rammed someone through.

2) But that would assure a Biden victory and a Democratic Senate.

3) And Democrats would get their revenge by packing the Court.

4) But since numbers three and four are probably going to happen anyway, let's go for it.

5) But Collins, Murkowski, Romney, and _______ will conspire to screw us.

6) So the whole thing is a pipe dream.

7) Still, it would have been nice to find out whom Trump's new nominee supposedly raped, decades ago.

Trump nominates. According to the above, he's damned if he does. But he's also damned if he doesn't! It's a choice between two procedures one of which may have high cost [Nominate and lose the Senate and/or the general], and one of which has a much higher cost if it goes awry [Don't nominate and lose the election.] Clear choice: Nominate!

This analysis relieves me, for I, too, am most interested in a repeat performance of the Kavanaugh hearings, for pure entertainment value, of course.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 19, 2020, 04:17:36 PM
This analysis relieves me, for I, too, am most interested in a repeat performance of the Kavanaugh hearings, for pure entertainment value, of course.

Yes.  And may I request in advance that whoever makes the rape allegation this time have that same creepy-hilarious Christine Blasey Ford voice?  Best-case scenario: A tearful Amy Coney Barrett fends off assault charges made by Minnie Mouse.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 19, 2020, 04:46:37 PM
To the contrary, the Constitution doesn't list ANY qualifications. Not even citizenship.

Harriet Miers?

Abortion becomes illegal and the black population grows proportionately?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 19, 2020, 05:01:53 PM
Abortion becomes illegal and the black population grows proportionately?

Well, it would, so there's that. 

Indeed, one of noted eugenicist RBG's most ridiculous moments was making that exact connection as part of a defense of Roe!  "Frankly I had thought that at the time [Roe vs. Wade] was decided . . . there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don't want to have too many of." 

Ah, yes, let's support abortion because it kills the poor, a disproportionate number of which are "B"lack.  That's what I call progressive.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 19, 2020, 05:32:25 PM
Abortion becomes illegal and the black population grows proportionately?

Well, it would, so there's that. 

Indeed, one of noted eugenicist RBG's most ridiculous moments was making that exact connection as part of a defense of Roe!  "Frankly I had thought that at the time [Roe vs. Wade] was decided . . . there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don't want to have too many of." 

Ah, yes, let's support abortion because it kills the poor, a disproportionate number of which are "B"lack.  That's what I call progressive.

When i was a kid the population explosion was in so many discussions.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 19, 2020, 05:38:32 PM
Just to put some perspective on the so-called population explosion: If every four people on the planet, mimicking a family of four, were allocated a quarter acre, mimicking a decent US suburban homestead, we would need the area of three Texas'!

There's plenty 'o room, peoples. :-)
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 19, 2020, 05:44:47 PM
Seriously, how many conservatives care about abortion? Don't some of them use the issue to call people immoral, or as leverage to get other things they want? (And I'm not saying abortion isn't immoral) If you were to tell all of them 'OK we're gonna change the law. Abortion will be illegal.' How would people deal with the prospect of that.

Just to put some perspective on the so-called population explosion: If every four people on the planet, mimicking a family of four, were allocated a quarter acre, mimicking a decent US suburban homestead, we would need the area of three Texas'!

There's plenty 'o room, peoples. :-)

But isn't it a local issue? Like say in Haiti where the whole ecosystem is a mess because of too many people and no good ways to cope with so many living in such limited space and bad conditions?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: ciao_yall on September 19, 2020, 06:17:35 PM
Seriously, how many conservatives care about abortion? Don't some of them use the issue to call people immoral, or as leverage to get other things they want? (And I'm not saying abortion isn't immoral) If you were to tell all of them 'OK we're gonna change the law. Abortion will be illegal.' How would people deal with the prospect of that.

They don't because they know they can get one any time they want. Everyone in a certain social class knows a doctor with some special equipment.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 19, 2020, 06:19:30 PM
Seriously, how many conservatives care about abortion? Don't some of them use the issue to call people immoral, or as leverage to get other things they want? (And I'm not saying abortion isn't immoral) If you were to tell all of them 'OK we're gonna change the law. Abortion will be illegal.' How would people deal with the prospect of that.

Just to put some perspective on the so-called population explosion: If every four people on the planet, mimicking a family of four, were allocated a quarter acre, mimicking a decent US suburban homestead, we would need the area of three Texas'!

There's plenty 'o room, peoples. :-)

But isn't it a local issue? Like say in Haiti where the whole ecosystem is a mess because of too many people and no good ways to cope with so many living in such limited space and bad conditions?

Haiti has the same population density as The Netherlands. There are many problems, but population or population density, even locally, is not one of them.

A rule of thumb about facts may help: High density places can be rich or poor. Low density places are poor.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 19, 2020, 06:37:07 PM
Seriously, how many conservatives care about abortion? Don't some of them use the issue to call people immoral, or as leverage to get other things they want? (And I'm not saying abortion isn't immoral) If you were to tell all of them 'OK we're gonna change the law. Abortion will be illegal.' How would people deal with the prospect of that.

They don't because they know they can get one any time they want. Everyone in a certain social class knows a doctor with some special equipment.

But I think some do on principle. I know a Catholic woman who had a child she had not planned to have. Some people cannot stand to do abortion.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 19, 2020, 06:54:12 PM
Seriously, how many conservatives care about abortion? Don't some of them use the issue to call people immoral, or as leverage to get other things they want? (And I'm not saying abortion isn't immoral) If you were to tell all of them 'OK we're gonna change the law. Abortion will be illegal.' How would people deal with the prospect of that.

Just to put some perspective on the so-called population explosion: If every four people on the planet, mimicking a family of four, were allocated a quarter acre, mimicking a decent US suburban homestead, we would need the area of three Texas'!

There's plenty 'o room, peoples. :-)

But isn't it a local issue? Like say in Haiti where the whole ecosystem is a mess because of too many people and no good ways to cope with so many living in such limited space and bad conditions?

Haiti has the same population density as The Netherlands. There are many problems, but population or population density, even locally, is not one of them.

A rule of thumb about facts may help: High density places can be rich or poor. Low density places are poor.

Low density like the USA?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 19, 2020, 07:27:06 PM
Nah, more disaggregated, and world-wide. There's lots of other stuff to be held constant, such as natural resources, and so on.

Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mythbuster on September 19, 2020, 07:35:53 PM
Mr. Buster's hypothesis is they nominate but wait till after the election to confirm. This allows the senators in tight election races some cover, then they can vote without fear of repercussions during the lame duck session. This works especially well if the senate vote comes before the national election results are confirmed. The wrench in the works for this plan is the seat in AZ, which is really a special election. If Mark Kelly wins, he could be seated by December 1.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 20, 2020, 05:46:19 AM
Mr. Buster's hypothesis is they nominate but wait till after the election to confirm. This allows the senators in tight election races some cover, then they can vote without fear of repercussions during the lame duck session. This works especially well if the senate vote comes before the national election results are confirmed.

I like it!

The wrench in the works for this plan is the seat in AZ, which is really a special election. If Mark Kelly wins, he could be seated by December 1.

I like it less.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 20, 2020, 06:32:56 AM
Mr. Buster's hypothesis is they nominate but wait till after the election to confirm. This allows the senators in tight election races some cover, then they can vote without fear of repercussions during the lame duck session. This works especially well if the senate vote comes before the national election results are confirmed.

I like it!

The wrench in the works for this plan is the seat in AZ, which is really a special election. If Mark Kelly wins, he could be seated by December 1.

I like it less.

But how could Mitch McConnell accept that kind of scheming when he believes it's the people who should get the Supreme Court Justice they want?

"Feb. 16, 2016: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Judiciary Committee Chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, write an opinion piece in the Washington Post, saying the nation has a "unique opportunity" to make an impact on the court by filling it along with the timeline of voting for a new president, "as they decide who they trust to both lead the country and nominate the next Supreme Court justice."

"(Democrats would) rather the Senate simply push through yet another lifetime appointment by a president on his way out the door," they write.

"Given that we are in the midst of the presidential election process, we believe that the American people should seize the opportunity to weigh in on whom they trust to nominate the next person for a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court," they conclude. "It is today the American people, rather than a lame-duck president whose priorities and policies they just rejected in the most-recent national election, who should be afforded the opportunity to replace Justice Scalia."  -  McConnell, a few short years ago. Source: USA Today

But wait, you say, Trump is not a lame duck president. But then there is this:
"Roughly half of U.S. adults (51%) say the outcome of the Senate trial should be Trump’s removal from office, while 46% say the result should lead to Trump remaining in office."  - Pew Research Center

So we don't have the president we want, today. We have the one the republican senate wants.

Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Cheerful on September 20, 2020, 08:08:53 AM
Part of McConnell's RBG statement on Friday:

"In the last midterm election before Justice Scalia’s death in 2016, Americans elected a Republican Senate majority because we pledged to check and balance the last days of a lame-duck president’s second term. We kept our promise. Since the 1880s, no Senate has confirmed an opposite-party president’s Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

By contrast, Americans reelected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. Once again, we will keep our promise.

President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate."

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-the-passing-of-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on September 20, 2020, 08:12:07 AM
Part of McConnell's RBG statement on Friday:

"In the last midterm election before Justice Scalia’s death in 2016, Americans elected a Republican Senate majority because we pledged to check and balance the last days of a lame-duck president’s second term. We kept our promise. Since the 1880s, no Senate has confirmed an opposite-party president’s Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

By contrast, Americans reelected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. Once again, we will keep our promise.

President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate."

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-the-passing-of-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg

"...expanded it in 2018 ..."

Really? Hmmm....I didn't read it that way....

M.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Cheerful on September 20, 2020, 08:26:57 AM
Part of McConnell's RBG statement on Friday:

"In the last midterm election before Justice Scalia’s death in 2016, Americans elected a Republican Senate majority because we pledged to check and balance the last days of a lame-duck president’s second term. We kept our promise. Since the 1880s, no Senate has confirmed an opposite-party president’s Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

By contrast, Americans reelected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. Once again, we will keep our promise.

President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate."

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-the-passing-of-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg

"...expanded it in 2018 ..."

Really? Hmmm....I didn't read it that way....

M.

He's talking about the Senate majority.  In 2018, U.S. House gained 41 Dems, U.S. Senate gained 2 GOP.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Cheerful on September 20, 2020, 08:53:55 AM
Both parties engage in politics, of course. 

Lindsey Graham, Chair, Senate Judiciary Committee has changed his mind on waiting for the newly-elected president to make the Supreme Court nomination.  He's noted several reasons:

1.  In 2013, then-Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) changed Senate rules to a simple majority vote for circuit court nominees:  51 votes to confirm, no need for 60 votes to break a filibuster.

2.  Senator Chuck Schumer (D) "and his friends in the liberal media conspired to destroy the life of Brett Kavanaugh and hold that Supreme Court seat open."

Similar to McConnell's statement, Graham says: 

“Merrick Garland was a different situation. You had the president of one party nominating, and you had the Senate in the hands of the other party.

In 2017, Senate GOP Majority applied the same 51-vote majority rule to Supreme Court appointments.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 20, 2020, 09:50:27 AM
The president has the right to nominate someone.  The Senate has the right to confirm the nomination, vote it down, or ignore it altogether.  Any other standard, historical allusion, appeal to the calendar, or nod to the voters is sleight-of-hand meant to veil the fact that the process is--and is meant to be--an exercise in power politics.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 20, 2020, 10:43:24 AM
Nah, more disaggregated, and world-wide. There's lots of other stuff to be held constant, such as natural resources, and so on.

That was the point of my USA snipe.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: kaysixteen on September 20, 2020, 07:57:33 PM
I've been thinking on this one.   The Democrats could try this: having Nancy Pelosi tell McConnell and Trump that holding a vote before the election will mean 1) she will play hardball in the House wrt the upcoming necessary vote on continuing the funding for the fed govt, trusting that the GOP will be blamed for it and 2) remind them that doing this will guarantee the Democrats will pack the court, should they find themselves in complete control of the govt in Jan.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 20, 2020, 08:07:45 PM
The possibility to pack the court is open whenever a single party controls both houses of Congress and provides the President, but only then. There is no binding deal that can be struck between parties. Nothing can prevent packing.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: larryc on September 20, 2020, 10:53:09 PM
Yes, Trump will get his justice. This is an exercise in raw power. McConnell has the votes.

The only card the Democrats have is to say that if there is a Republican appointment made, arguably the second illegitimate appointment the Republicans have made, the Democrats will appoint four additional justices in January. We will need the Senate to do that but that is looking good. And we need then to abolish the filibuster, and this display or raw power from the Republicans will be enough to convince every Democrat to do that.

Four justices in January. And announce it now--it *might* give a couple of Republicans enough pause to step back.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 21, 2020, 04:11:35 AM
Trump has already said it will be a woman. When the candidate on the right is already accepting the identity premise this means it is obviously the norm going forward. I haven't decided if I'm happy with the recent honesty on both sides or not. Biden says right of the bat that has VP and SCOTUS picks will be based on pigment and plumbing. Up until very recently everyone was using the rhetoric that they chose the best candidate that just happened to be from group x, not that you would ever consider that unless a total tie, in which case definitely go with group x. Now the quiet part is out loud and normalized. I wish an academic job would just say this.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 04:28:10 AM
Yes, Trump will get his justice. This is an exercise in raw power. McConnell has the votes.

The only card the Democrats have is to say that if there is a Republican appointment made, arguably the second illegitimate appointment the Republicans have made, the Democrats will appoint four additional justices in January. We will need the Senate to do that but that is looking good. And we need then to abolish the filibuster, and this display or raw power from the Republicans will be enough to convince every Democrat to do that.

Four justices in January. And announce it now--it *might* give a couple of Republicans enough pause to step back.

I think packing the court is a horrible idea. If what the Republicans have done is a naked power play, packing the court would be a naked power play x 10. Ends justifying the means of an entirely different order of magnitude.

Also, after you pack the court by adding four new justices, what are you going to do? Top the power play off with a constitutional amendment capping the number of justices at 13? If you don’t, what’s going to stop the Republicans from adding more when they are fully in power? If you do, Democrats will never be able to complain about Republocans unethical power plays unless they want to look like total hypocrites.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 06:52:56 AM
The point of packing is to use tit-for-tat retaliation to constrain Republican overreaches. Republicans have obtained a Supreme Court majority that cannot be broken by Democrats, barring extraordinary measures, despite losing the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. This is not a democratic outcome, and it does not reflect the American public. In fact, we know that SCOTUS is far to the right of the American public already.

So: packing ends when Republicans stop breaking norms. It continues for as long as they retaliate. To capitulate to their naked power plays is to undermine what's left of the institution.

That said, I'm not confident Democrats will follow through, especially without leadership--which Biden certainly hasn't offered, on this issue.

EDIT: Hypocrisy doesn't check the Republicans, and complaining hasn't helped the Democrats. There's no advantage to be gained from sitting there and accepting Republicans' bad behaviour.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 07:24:22 AM
The point of packing is to use tit-for-tat retaliation to constrain Republican overreaches. Republicans have obtained a Supreme Court majority that cannot be broken by Democrats, barring extraordinary measures, despite losing the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. This is not a democratic outcome, and it does not reflect the American public. In fact, we know that SCOTUS is far to the right of the American public already.

So: packing ends when Republicans stop breaking norms. It continues for as long as they retaliate. To capitulate to their naked power plays is to undermine what's left of the institution.

That said, I'm not confident Democrats will follow through, especially without leadership--which Biden certainly hasn't offered, on this issue.

EDIT: Hypocrisy doesn't check the Republicans, and complaining hasn't helped the Democrats. There's no advantage to be gained from sitting there and accepting Republicans' bad behaviour.

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on September 21, 2020, 07:38:53 AM
I doubt Democrats could get the votes to pack the court, even if they have a senate majority. In fact, I doubt they could get the momentum going to even get a vote on packing the court.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: ciao_yall on September 21, 2020, 08:09:50 AM
The point of packing is to use tit-for-tat retaliation to constrain Republican overreaches. Republicans have obtained a Supreme Court majority that cannot be broken by Democrats, barring extraordinary measures, despite losing the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. This is not a democratic outcome, and it does not reflect the American public. In fact, we know that SCOTUS is far to the right of the American public already.

So: packing ends when Republicans stop breaking norms. It continues for as long as they retaliate. To capitulate to their naked power plays is to undermine what's left of the institution.

That said, I'm not confident Democrats will follow through, especially without leadership--which Biden certainly hasn't offered, on this issue.

EDIT: Hypocrisy doesn't check the Republicans, and complaining hasn't helped the Democrats. There's no advantage to be gained from sitting there and accepting Republicans' bad behaviour.

It seems it would be very difficult for Biden to be taking a stand on this issue before the election. He needs to focus, big picture, on what the D's can bring to the American people - health care, living wages, education, etc. Scrapping about court-packing isn't a fight he needs to waste airtime on.

That said, would Biden have much to gain putting out names for a Supreme Court justice at this point?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mythbuster on September 21, 2020, 08:25:26 AM
If Biden comes out now with a court packing threat the Dems will lose the election.  It's that simple.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 08:27:09 AM
Biden took a stand against it in the primary.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 08:32:50 AM

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: ciao_yall on September 21, 2020, 08:40:30 AM
If Biden comes out now with a court packing threat the Dems will lose the election.  It's that simple.

Why do you say that?

It might turn off moderate R's who aren't comfortable with McConnell's shennanigans, yet still aren't sure two wrongs make a right.

I'll go back to my earlier point... it drags down the conversation during the election. And it will be Biden trying to wrestle with Trump/McConnell in their own pigsty. T and C will have too much fun, and Biden will come out covered in sh*t.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on September 21, 2020, 10:28:49 AM
If Biden comes out now with a court packing threat the Dems will lose the election.  It's that simple.

Is this based on anything aside from your own intuition?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 11:36:56 AM

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution. If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 11:41:49 AM


Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution and permanently do away with one of the checks and balances in the constitution.  If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 21, 2020, 11:44:43 AM

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution. If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?

From an article by Elizabeth Nix: "The U.S. Constitution established the Supreme Court but left it to Congress to decide how many justices should make up the court. The Judiciary Act of 1789 set the number at six: a chief justice and five associate justices. In 1807, Congress increased the number of justices to seven; in 1837, the number was bumped up to nine; and in 1863, it rose to 10. In 1866, Congress passed the Judicial Circuits Act, which shrank the number of justices back down to seven and prevented President Andrew Johnson from appointing anyone new to the court. Three years later, in 1869, Congress raised the number of justices to nine, where it has stood ever since."

And, I'm going to suggest it might be a bad idea politically in the short term, but I in no way see this as "throwing away the framework".
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: little bongo on September 21, 2020, 11:52:11 AM
It's true that we often confuse "the framework" for "that's the way it's been for many years." As an article I just read pointed out, with McConnell and company, it's not even hypocrisy, really. It's just, "we do it because we can," complete with evil laugh and moustache-twirling. I'm inclined to agree that Dems can't beat that kind of thinking with misplaced worry about how history will view them later.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Treehugger on September 21, 2020, 12:09:49 PM

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution. If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?

From an article by Elizabeth Nix: "The U.S. Constitution established the Supreme Court but left it to Congress to decide how many justices should make up the court. The Judiciary Act of 1789 set the number at six: a chief justice and five associate justices. In 1807, Congress increased the number of justices to seven; in 1837, the number was bumped up to nine; and in 1863, it rose to 10. In 1866, Congress passed the Judicial Circuits Act, which shrank the number of justices back down to seven and prevented President Andrew Johnson from appointing anyone new to the court. Three years later, in 1869, Congress raised the number of justices to nine, where it has stood ever since."

And, I'm going to suggest it might be a bad idea politically in the short term, but I in no way see this as "throwing away the framework".

I am more interested in knowing the reasons behind the changing number of justices and whether or not it was a question of a political power grab. I can definitely see perfectly legit reasons for changes the number. I can see an even number as being less than ideal, unless one justice has the deciding vote in case of a tie.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 21, 2020, 12:14:46 PM

Sure, you can rationalize it however you like. Short and medium term it might be a good idea. Long term, it will be a disastrous precedent.

The reality is that the current situation is already very bad in the long term. This is compounded by the fact that it's arisen out of bad-faith governance and undemocratic outcomes, and cannot be remedied through the usual democratic processes. There is zero hope of remedy without extraordinary action. That's very, very bad for the long term.

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution. If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?

From an article by Elizabeth Nix: "The U.S. Constitution established the Supreme Court but left it to Congress to decide how many justices should make up the court. The Judiciary Act of 1789 set the number at six: a chief justice and five associate justices. In 1807, Congress increased the number of justices to seven; in 1837, the number was bumped up to nine; and in 1863, it rose to 10. In 1866, Congress passed the Judicial Circuits Act, which shrank the number of justices back down to seven and prevented President Andrew Johnson from appointing anyone new to the court. Three years later, in 1869, Congress raised the number of justices to nine, where it has stood ever since."

And, I'm going to suggest it might be a bad idea politically in the short term, but I in no way see this as "throwing away the framework".

I am more interested in knowing the reasons behind the changing number of justices and whether or not it was a question of a political power grab. I can definitely see perfectly legit reasons for changes the number. I can see an even number as being less than ideal, unless one justice has the deciding vote in case of a tie.

One of the changes (a reduction) was to prevent Andrew Johnson from nominating any Justices. That is the one I remembered, and I'd say it was blatantly political.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 01:13:36 PM

Ok, here’s the difference. The Republicans have been playing power politics and acting in bad faith to politicize an institution that is not supposed to be politicized. The answer to that is not to throw away the framework and make it a permanently nakedly politicized institution and permanently do away with one of the checks and balances in the constitution.  If you do that, you will have already lost, even though you have “won.”  Do you see the difference?

It's hardly throwing away the framework. And while I agree that Republicans are unlikely not to pack themselves when they have the chance, the idea is not to just pack because Democrats can, but to use packing to shore up the institution Republicans are actively undermining. When they stop undermining, the packing would stop. That's the idea.

The alternative is to sit there and accept what they're doing, which is to "permanently nakedly [politicize the] institution and permanently do away with one of the checks and balances in the constitution." If they do that, it's all lost. Do you see the difference?

The alternative to the court-packing bandaid solution is going to be a major upheaval. And that seems like a bad thing to me, in amongst all the other things.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 21, 2020, 02:57:58 PM
Think of the upside to this. The right will lose a talking point that the left can't win at the voting booth so they have to either go to the courts or bring in ringers from other countries to tilt the vote toward the type of governments that they had to escape. A right leaning court solves both of those issues simultaneously and makes the left more accountable to actual voters rather than the loudest communist with a social media platform.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 21, 2020, 03:42:27 PM
My conservative take again:

I'm dying for Democrats to try to pack the Court.  It will be about as successful as that time I stepped on a rake.  Yet even if it succeeds, I'll be glad they did it, as the ultimate result would be the (greatly needed) diminishment of the Supreme Court's power and prestige.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 21, 2020, 03:57:01 PM
Ah, people: The difficulty lies not in our stars; it lies in us!

For reasons rooted in the 1968 so-called democratization of the presidential nominating process [primaries] and the subsequent polarization, not of overall opinion, but of electoral means and results predicated on those few believers voting in primaries, the Supreme Court had become confirmed as the go-to-guy to get the stuff you wanted, avoiding the messy process of convincing one's fellows in States and in the nation. The Supreme Court was never intended to do this or be this.

Scalia put all this most directly, and said words to the effect of

Hell, if we all wanna' go that way, let's have direct elections of justices!

Otherwise, not Scalia, but I, would say, forever hold your peace. :-)
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 04:05:11 PM
Think of the upside to this. The right will lose a talking point that the left can't win at the voting booth so they have to either go to the courts or bring in ringers from other countries to tilt the vote toward the type of governments that they had to escape. A right leaning court solves both of those issues simultaneously and makes the left more accountable to actual voters rather than the loudest communist with a social media platform.

And who, in this utopia of yours, holds the right to account when it oversteps its legal bounds?

Hell, who holds them to account politically when the electoral maps for the EC, Senate, and House are all so significantly tilted in one direction that defeating a Republican requires a surplus of millions each time? (Millions for the EC; proportionally more but numerically less for the others.)


Herrenvolk democracy, indeed.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 21, 2020, 04:09:28 PM
Think of the upside to this. The right will lose a talking point that the left can't win at the voting booth so they have to either go to the courts or bring in ringers from other countries to tilt the vote toward the type of governments that they had to escape. A right leaning court solves both of those issues simultaneously and makes the left more accountable to actual voters rather than the loudest communist with a social media platform.

And who, in this utopia of yours, holds the right to account when it oversteps its legal bounds?

Hell, who holds them to account politically when the electoral maps for the EC, Senate, and House are all so significantly tilted in one direction that defeating a Republican requires a surplus of millions each time? (Millions for the EC; proportionally more but numerically less for the others.)


Herrenvolk democracy, indeed.


Yup! So 
Quote
let's have direct elections of justices

Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 21, 2020, 04:41:50 PM
I find it amusing that one needs to arrive at a utopian society to be an improvement on the current state of affairs, as if we're presently hovering only "slightly below" this status.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 21, 2020, 06:57:07 PM
I find it amusing that one needs to arrive at a utopian society to be an improvement on the current state of affairs, as if we're presently hovering only "slightly below" this status.

I still don't understand who checks the minority right-wing party with all the power in your scenario.

So: fine, assume that the upside is that 'te left'is now somehow 'more accountable' to the people as a result. They're already more accountable, so-counted--by millions of votes. So your scenario seems us holding the more accountable group even more accountable, while the less accountable (unaccountable) group continues to do whatever it likes with impunity.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 22, 2020, 01:40:48 AM
.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 22, 2020, 05:39:37 AM
I still don't understand who checks the minority right-wing party with all the power in your scenario.

Minority of what?  The "right wing" is ascendant in a majority of the states.  The Constitution is a compact between the states.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Hegemony on September 22, 2020, 06:01:04 AM
Maybe in a majority of the states, but not for a majority of the people. Let's not forget that this "compact between the States" means that the country is not a true democracy, meaning a country in which every vote has equal weight.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on September 22, 2020, 06:03:22 AM
Maybe in a majority of the states, but not for a majority of the people. Let's not forget that this "compact between the States" means that the country is not a true democracy, meaning a country in which every vote has equal weight.

By that measure, any parliamentary democracy (and lots of other forms of government as well) are not "true democracies".
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Hegemony on September 22, 2020, 06:34:17 AM

[/quote]

By that measure, any parliamentary democracy (and lots of other forms of government as well) are not "true democracies".
[/quote]

To quote the Bible, "Thou hast said it."
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on September 22, 2020, 07:02:17 AM

Quote

By that measure, any parliamentary democracy (and lots of other forms of government as well) are not "true democracies".

To quote the Bible, "Thou hast said it."

So do you want a society where everyone has neural implants so that every decision now made by any level of government would be made by referendum? (And any malfunctioning implant should delay any subsequent voting until it's fixed since that would prevent that vote having "equal weight".)

God help us.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: little bongo on September 22, 2020, 07:21:18 AM
You have to ignore a lot of nuances and differences between "democracy," "republic," and "democratic republic" to go right to neural implants.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on September 22, 2020, 07:46:06 AM
You have to ignore a lot of nuances and differences between "democracy," "republic," and "democratic republic" to go right to neural implants.

The point is that "equal weight" is an ideal that is only approximated in any form of democratic government. It's a convenient scapegoat for people who are unhappy with election results, (and that happens from all points along the political spectrum), but it's basically a smokescreen. True leadership requires the difficult and time-consuming task of building consensus, which if it is done will be successful despite the limitations of any specific democratic system.

Pandering to a specific group, (again, from anywhere on  the political spectrum), is vastly easier, and can have some success by leveraging the limitations of the particular system.

Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 22, 2020, 09:56:48 AM
Let's not forget that this "compact between the States" means that the country is not a true democracy, meaning a country in which every vote has equal weight.

I thank God for it.  May He bless the memory of the brilliant slaveholders who made it so.

Also, it now appears that Romney is backing the vote, which means the vote will succeed barring disaster.  Get your rape allegations ready.  My prediction is that Trump nominates Barbara Lagoa, and she turns out to be David Souter 2.0.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 22, 2020, 09:57:40 AM
I still don't understand who checks the minority right-wing party with all the power in your scenario.

Minority of what?  The "right wing" is ascendant in a majority of the states.  The Constitution is a compact between the states.

The popular vote, for elected positions. (Dems need to win by 2-3+ points in the electoral college, ~4+ points in House elections, and 6-7+ points in Senate elections.) That's how bad gerrymandering is, now.


For comparison's sake, Americans here might be interested to learn that basically no Canadian is able to name a single one of our Supreme Court justices. (I used to know two, but have now forgotten them, if they're even still on the court. By contrast, I can name 7 of the 8 remaining US justices offhand [I always forget Breyer].) Our court gets almost no media attention; but it also, crucially, doesn't seem to issue verdicts that just fall across party lines: you can't just predict their votes on issues based on (perceived) party affiliation.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Puget on September 22, 2020, 10:18:27 AM
The popular vote, for elected positions. (Dems need to win by 2-3+ points in the electoral college, ~4+ points in House elections, and 6-7+ points in Senate elections.) That's how bad gerrymandering is, now.


Just to be picky (I agree all are a problem), only the house effect is due to "gerrymandering" (and then only partly, since 7 states have only 1 representative, and some more of this effect is due to where people  live rather than where district lines are drawn), unless you count state lines as a gerrymander. The deeper problem (or feature, depending on your values and goals) is that low-population states are over-represented.

There are some ways we could work on addressing some of the imbalance, but we're never going to be Canada, for lots of reasons.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on September 22, 2020, 10:22:58 AM

For comparison's sake, Americans here might be interested to learn that basically no Canadian is able to name a single one of our Supreme Court justices. (I used to know two, but have now forgotten them, if they're even still on the court. By contrast, I can name 7 of the 8 remaining US justices offhand [I always forget Breyer].) Our court gets almost no media attention; but it also, crucially, doesn't seem to issue verdicts that just fall across party lines: you can't just predict their votes on issues based on (perceived) party affiliation.

The irony is that the appointment process here is much more undemocratic. The Prime Minister pretty much makes a choice and that's more or less it. Whereas in the US there's the whole Senate hearing process. It would almost seem that the media circus surrounding the US process makes it more partisan.

If that's the case, it raises the fascinating possibility that less media coverage is what democracy needs, not more.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 22, 2020, 10:32:36 AM


Just to be picky (I agree all are a problem), only the house effect is due to "gerrymandering" (and then only partly, since 7 states have only 1 representative, and some more of this effect is due to where people  live rather than where district lines are drawn), unless you count state lines as a gerrymander. The deeper problem (or feature, depending on your values and goals) is that low-population states are over-represented.


Thanks for the correction!
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on September 22, 2020, 11:18:02 AM
Let's not forget that this "compact between the States" means that the country is not a true democracy, meaning a country in which every vote has equal weight.

I thank God for it.  May He bless the memory of the brilliant slaveholders who made it so.

Also, it now appears that Romney is backing the vote, which means the vote will succeed barring disaster.  Get your rape allegations ready.  My prediction is that Trump nominates Barbara Lagoa, and she turns out to be David Souter 2.0.

Please stop bantering this phrase about as if it were a casual reference.

For those of us who have had personal experience of rape, and/or know others who have, it's truly upsetting.

Find another meme by which to represent your derogation of those who oppose your political and social viewpoints.
 
Please.

M.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 22, 2020, 11:29:54 AM
The degree to which something is "upsetting" is not a measure of accuracy. Many of us are quite upset to see people railroaded with no due process as people actively say "believe all women."  That's the price of ignoring due process and constantly using these accusations as a weapon at the 11th hour.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 22, 2020, 12:03:40 PM
The degree to which something is "upsetting" is not a measure of accuracy. Many of us are quite upset to see people railroaded with no due process as people actively say "believe all women."  That's the price of ignoring due process and constantly using these accusations as a weapon at the 11th hour.

Indeed.  However, I shall try to remember to go with "r-pe" in the future.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 22, 2020, 12:06:49 PM
The degree to which something is "upsetting" is not a measure of accuracy. Many of us are quite upset to see people railroaded with no due process as people actively say "believe all women."  That's the price of ignoring due process and constantly using these accusations as a weapon at the 11th hour.

Indeed.  However, I shall try to remember to go with "r-pe" in the future.

Again, why? So you two are "upset". I'm upset about soldiers suffering from PTSD, but I'm confident that is nothing as to how they feel. The two of you have interesting perspectives, but you are also behaving like asses.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 22, 2020, 03:09:01 PM
The degree to which something is "upsetting" is not a measure of accuracy. Many of us are quite upset to see people railroaded with no due process as people actively say "believe all women."  That's the price of ignoring due process and constantly using these accusations as a weapon at the 11th hour.

Indeed.  However, I shall try to remember to go with "r-pe" in the future.

Again, why? So you two are "upset". I'm upset about soldiers suffering from PTSD, but I'm confident that is nothing as to how they feel. The two of you have interesting perspectives, but you are also behaving like asses.

Why what?  I want to understand your comment but cannot.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 22, 2020, 03:29:56 PM
The degree to which something is "upsetting" is not a measure of accuracy. Many of us are quite upset to see people railroaded with no due process as people actively say "believe all women."  That's the price of ignoring due process and constantly using these accusations as a weapon at the 11th hour.

Indeed.  However, I shall try to remember to go with "r-pe" in the future.

Why do you go (in my opinion of course) out of your way with comments like r-ape to be offensive? Why do you call Ginsburg a eugenicist when she clearly wasn't, and so soon after her death? I know you are smart, have interesting perspective even when I don't agree with them, but insist on making borderline trollish statements?

Being a eugenicist is not equal to believing abortion is lawful. We both know that, but you imply it.

And, anyone who has been paying attention knows that neither party in Congress has been especially consistent over the years, especially when it come to the Supreme Court.

Again, why? So you two are "upset". I'm upset about soldiers suffering from PTSD, but I'm confident that is nothing as to how they feel. The two of you have interesting perspectives, but you are also behaving like asses.

Why what?  I want to understand your comment but cannot.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 22, 2020, 08:26:20 PM
jim, if you believe that those of us who think accusations are accusations until they are proven are "behaving like asses" you obviously value the feelings of one person over the rights of another. To me it's easy to decide which one of those is more important. Some people may be uncomfortable but that's a result of the fact that there is uncertainty in the world rather than the degree to which I may or may not be agreeable.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: kaysixteen on September 22, 2020, 08:56:18 PM
WRT the Canadian SC, I see that the PM has sole appt power, but 1) are such seats term-limited 2) mandatory retirement?

Also, I read yesterday, in an op-ed piece by a law professor-type, a Democrat, who was arguing that the Democratic congress should use a long-disused Constitutional authority to limit SCOTUS' ability to rule on certain issues, that the Canadian Charter has something called a 'notwithstanding clause', which allows not only the Federal Parliament but even the provincial parliaments to disregard the Canadian SC's rulings?  Is this accurate?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on September 23, 2020, 04:32:44 AM
WRT the Canadian SC, I see that the PM has sole appt power, but 1) are such seats term-limited 2) mandatory retirement?

Also, I read yesterday, in an op-ed piece by a law professor-type, a Democrat, who was arguing that the Democratic congress should use a long-disused Constitutional authority to limit SCOTUS' ability to rule on certain issues, that the Canadian Charter has something called a 'notwithstanding clause', which allows not only the Federal Parliament but even the provincial parliaments to disregard the Canadian SC's rulings?  Is this accurate?

Retirement from the Supreme Court is at 75, as I recall. The "notwithstanding clause" recognizes that there are times when restrictions on individual rights are needed for the good of society. It has been rarely used, and I believe there is a 5-year limit for the federal government, so the issue would have to come back before parliament after 5 years.

Others here can correct any errors in my understanding.
 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 23, 2020, 05:56:04 AM
jim, if you believe that those of us who think accusations are accusations until they are proven are "behaving like asses" you obviously value the feelings of one person over the rights of another. To me it's easy to decide which one of those is more important. Some people may be uncomfortable but that's a result of the fact that there is uncertainty in the world rather than the degree to which I may or may not be agreeable.

This is correct.  The idea that Mamselle (or anyone) must be kept "safe" from references to rape on a political discussion thread, in a nation where rape accusations are used as a political weapon, is absurd.  It's a free forum; those who are triggered so easily needn't visit.  Furthermore, can we please not operate under the assumption that the whole "triggering" thing is, you know, true?  In actuality, it is yet another political weapon in which the currency of victimhood is used to silence one's opponents.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: little bongo on September 23, 2020, 07:07:27 AM
Being concerned for the rights of the accused is not an "ass" position, by any means.

"Get your rape allegations ready" is an ass thing to say.

"I shall try to remember to go with 'r-pe' in the future" is an ass thing to say.

Mocking anyone's genuine distress over a too-flippant reference to rape and sexual assault is an ass thing to do.

It's a bit like lighting a bag of sh-t, throwing it on my porch, and then mocking me when I object to it: "It's absurd for you to be upset about sh-t, because there is sh-t in the world."

Clear?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 23, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
jim, if you believe that those of us who think accusations are accusations until they are proven are "behaving like asses" you obviously value the feelings of one person over the rights of another. To me it's easy to decide which one of those is more important. Some people may be uncomfortable but that's a result of the fact that there is uncertainty in the world rather than the degree to which I may or may not be agreeable.

Being concerned for the rights of the accused is absolutely not being an ass, and I in no way believe that. I also don't think I said it.

What I'm taking issue with is the idea that my being concerned about it in any way equates with the experience and after effects of people who have experienced rape, or the situations in combat that lead to PTSD. I am indeed concerned and upset by those things, as well as for those who have been wrongly accused or convicted. I apologize if I made that point badly.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mythbuster on September 23, 2020, 03:36:24 PM
New question. Anyone think it's possible that Trump might get turned down by some on his preferred list? Being the nominee would cause upheaval and be a huge security concern for that person's entire family. I'm not saying he won't find someone. I'm just wondering if some might take a pass to avoid the constant harassment that could result for years to come.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: clean on September 23, 2020, 04:49:06 PM
No. 
If asked, the reason to turn it down would not be security.  It would be the 'Borking' that would make the job not worth it, i would think.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 23, 2020, 05:07:09 PM
No. 
If asked, the reason to turn it down would not be security.  It would be the 'Borking' that would make the job not worth it, i would think.

Amy Coney Barrett has already been through it once, on a smaller scale, when she was appointed to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals.  (Dianne Feinstein made an ass of herself, to borrow the recent language of this thread.)  Barbara Lagoa knows that being Hispanic (sorry, "Latinx") will protect her from the worst the Left has to offer. 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 23, 2020, 07:22:44 PM
Trump has already said it will be a woman. When the candidate on the right is already accepting the identity premise this means it is obviously the norm going forward. I haven't decided if I'm happy with the recent honesty on both sides or not. Biden says right of the bat that has VP and SCOTUS picks will be based on pigment and plumbing. Up until very recently everyone was using the rhetoric that they chose the best candidate that just happened to be from group x, not that you would ever consider that unless a total tie, in which case definitely go with group x. Now the quiet part is out loud and normalized. I wish an academic job would just say this.

I'm only half an academic, but....down with men! We suck.
As well, it would be a man who decided we need a woman. So why trust him.
 Reminds me of the study Andy Rooney mentioned that shows that three out of four people living in the USA need psychiatric treatment. Which would mean, 75% of the people who conducted the study are nuts.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on September 23, 2020, 08:14:01 PM
I actually thought again about that statement. I don't think Trump actually believes in the identity politic aspect and decided to choose a woman for that reason. It's far more likely that he understands this is the only way to avoid a last minute me too allegation as a means to derail the candidate. Since this one will be seen as a likely decider on many abortion issues, that particular aspect may be less controversial when handled by a woman, which is a nice bonus but nothing compared to the possibility of a middle aged white guy who any person on the planet can come out and slander in the last minute to extend things beyond swearing in January.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 25, 2020, 03:14:49 PM
Well, maybe jumping the gun a little, looks like it'll be Amy, a female Scalia, as one wit said! :-)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/politics/donald-trump-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/politics/donald-trump-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court/index.html)
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Parasaurolophus on September 25, 2020, 04:20:54 PM
Well, maybe jumping the gun a little, looks like it'll be Amy, a female Scalia, as one wit said! :-)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/politics/donald-trump-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/politics/donald-trump-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court/index.html)

Yup, looks like I was wrong about Rao.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 25, 2020, 05:20:51 PM
A superb pick.  Note to Democrats: Attacking her weirdo Catholicism is a losing strategy.  Better hope she flew with Epstein or something.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: permanent imposter on September 25, 2020, 11:43:04 PM
Being concerned for the rights of the accused is not an "ass" position, by any means.

"Get your rape allegations ready" is an ass thing to say.

"I shall try to remember to go with 'r-pe' in the future" is an ass thing to say.

Mocking anyone's genuine distress over a too-flippant reference to rape and sexual assault is an ass thing to do.

It's a bit like lighting a bag of sh-t, throwing it on my porch, and then mocking me when I object to it: "It's absurd for you to be upset about sh-t, because there is sh-t in the world."

Clear?

+1
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on September 26, 2020, 06:39:49 PM
A superb pick.  Note to Democrats: Attacking her weirdo Catholicism is a losing strategy.  Better hope she flew with Epstein or something.

There is no way this woman can be Kavannaughed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irtm9gITJhA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irtm9gITJhA)
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Economizer on September 27, 2020, 06:02:49 AM
Ms. [Mrs.?] Barrett surely will be thoroughly evaluated as to her moral, religious, and political views as well as her jurisprudence. From my perspective, well, she appears to be a pretty darn attractive woman.
Although, some of you thought I spelled her name wrong!
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 27, 2020, 06:21:55 AM
Ms. [Mrs.?] Bennett surely will be thoroughly evaluated as to her moral, religious, and political views as well as her jurisprudence. From my perspective, well, she appears to be a pretty darn attractive woman.

Though I, for one, would be thrilled to see Mrs. Bennet, the mother in Pride and Prejudice, on the Supreme Court, I'm not sure that's who's been nominated.

There is no way this woman can be Kavannaughed

No, but she can be Borked.  The only possible line of attack here is a series of Ted Kennedy-style "in Amy Coney Barrett's America" speeches.  Surely, surely even the American Left will be too smart to accuse her of crimes without evidence or explicitly complain, on the Senate floor, that she adopted children from Haiti.  We know you hate her for that, guys, but try to keep it in the cloak room.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 27, 2020, 09:06:16 AM
This is a done deal. The Senate will confirm her with little fanfare, and it should based on her qualifications. The Democrats will (rightfully, in my opinion) protest in some way, but it will happen. I think their plan is to hammer  the issue of precedent and how important it is or isn't to her.

To be clear, I don't think the process should go forward. President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong. Considering anyone at this time, particularly since voting is already underway is wrong. However, what I believe is of little consequence.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: clean on September 27, 2020, 10:02:09 AM
Quote
This is a done deal. The Senate will confirm her with little fanfare, and it should based on her qualifications. The Democrats will (rightfully, in my opinion) protest in some way, but it will happen. I think their plan is to hammer  the issue of precedent and how important it is or isn't to her.

To be clear, I don't think the process should go forward. President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong. Considering anyone at this time, particularly since voting is already underway is wrong. However, what I believe is of little consequence.

I think Jimbogumbo's remarks pretty much sums up my thoughts on this issue. I will add that I think that the train has left the station and it would take more than the democrats have to stop the train. It is a done deal at this point, I fear.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on September 27, 2020, 10:04:16 AM
This is a done deal. The Senate will confirm her with little fanfare, and it should based on her qualifications. The Democrats will (rightfully, in my opinion) protest in some way, but it will happen. I think their plan is to hammer  the issue of precedent and how important it is or isn't to her.

To be clear, I don't think the process should go forward. President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong. Considering anyone at this time, particularly since voting is already underway is wrong. However, what I believe is of little consequence.

I agree with all of this. Baring something extraordinary, the only thing that could go wrong is if Republican senators in swing states get cold feet, but even if they lose a few people they can get to 50 votes with Pence breaking the tie. There is also some possibility that a Democrat or two votes for her (someone like Doug Jones or possibly Manchin), but that only seems possible if the vote is after November 3rd and Trump has won the election.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 27, 2020, 10:50:16 AM
President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong.

What's the principle?  If confirming Carter's nominee was wrong, then confirming Garland would presumably have been equally wrong.  If confirming Garland was right, then why was it wrong to confirm Carter's nominee?  I'm confused by your stance.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 27, 2020, 01:46:52 PM
President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong.

What's the principle?  If confirming Carter's nominee was wrong, then confirming Garland would presumably have been equally wrong.  If confirming Garland was right, then why was it wrong to confirm Carter's nominee?  I'm confused by your stance.

The Carter confirmation actually occurred (if I'm correct) after the election in which he was defeated. I'll check, but that is what I believe. So to me that confirmation and the current are the same (or at least very similar) and Garland was different.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on September 27, 2020, 01:50:00 PM
President Carter nominated and had a Justice confirmed late in his term, and I think that was wrong. I believe Merrick Garland should been considered. The fact that he wasn't was wrong.

What's the principle?  If confirming Carter's nominee was wrong, then confirming Garland would presumably have been equally wrong.  If confirming Garland was right, then why was it wrong to confirm Carter's nominee?  I'm confused by your stance.

The Carter confirmation actually occurred (if I'm correct) after the election in which he was defeated. I'll check, but that is what I believe. So to me that confirmation and the current are the same (or at least very similar) and Garland was different.

Sorry, it was NOT to the Supreme Court; it was Stephen Breyer to the Court of Appeals. It happened on Dec. 10, definitely after Carter was defeated.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on September 27, 2020, 01:51:46 PM
If Trump strings out a refusal to accept defeat, it may all be moot, anyway.

M.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: kaysixteen on September 27, 2020, 09:23:48 PM
The best argument against Barrett lies in her definitively asserted opposition to the Affordable Care Act, something she has unambiguously done in print.  This is especially true given that SCOTUS is set to have another hearing on the Trump admin's latest attempt to have the court nuke it just one short week after the election.  I have been, and will continue, to try to convince all my pro-life friends and coreligionists that it is just not accurate for someone to assert that they are 'pro-life', when they support removing health insurance from 22million people (not to mention the other negative consequences of nuking this law).  And the GOP, led by Moscow Mitch, seems to have forgotten that their party got shellacked in the 2018 house elections largely because of efforts to scuttle the law.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on September 28, 2020, 05:04:33 AM
I have been, and will continue, to try to convince all my pro-life friends and coreligionists that it is just not accurate for someone to assert that they are 'pro-life', when they support removing health insurance from 22million people (not to mention the other negative consequences of nuking this law).

"Pro-life" is a term of art with which one signifies one's opposition to elective abortions.  It does not follow that the "pro-life" person must support every government intervention meant to ease the burdens of the poor.  Many don't work; others make the problem worse; still others lead to empty shelves, hyper-inflation, and enforced famine used as a political weapon.  (We must eliminate the Kulaks as a class, etc.) 

Also, on a personal note, I implore you to consider that you can give all the ground you want, but the Left--including the leftists on these fora--will still hate you.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: little bongo on September 28, 2020, 07:31:27 AM
I have been, and will continue, to try to convince all my pro-life friends and coreligionists that it is just not accurate for someone to assert that they are 'pro-life', when they support removing health insurance from 22million people (not to mention the other negative consequences of nuking this law).

"Pro-life" is a term of art with which one signifies one's opposition to elective abortions.  It does not follow that the "pro-life" person must support every government intervention meant to ease the burdens of the poor.  Many don't work; others make the problem worse; still others lead to empty shelves, hyper-inflation, and enforced famine used as a political weapon.  (We must eliminate the Kulaks as a class, etc.) 

Also, on a personal note, I implore you to consider that you can give all the ground you want, but the Left--including the leftists on these fora--will still hate you.

"Hate"? Geez.

I've gone to this classic movie quote before, but I think it bears repeating--from Casablanca (1942):

Ugarte: You despise me, don't you?

Rick: If I gave you any thought, I probably would.

ETA: I think this sums up my feelings about the specific question. It's a bit over 20 minutes, but worth a listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1265&v=pkpfFuiZkcs&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on September 28, 2020, 07:04:36 PM
I have been, and will continue, to try to convince all my pro-life friends and coreligionists that it is just not accurate for someone to assert that they are 'pro-life', when they support removing health insurance from 22million people (not to mention the other negative consequences of nuking this law).

"Pro-life" is a term of art with which one signifies one's opposition to elective abortions.  It does not follow that the "pro-life" person must support every government intervention meant to ease the burdens of the poor.  Many don't work; others make the problem worse; still others lead to empty shelves, hyper-inflation, and enforced famine used as a political weapon.  (We must eliminate the Kulaks as a class, etc.) 

Also, on a personal note, I implore you to consider that you can give all the ground you want, but the Left--including the leftists on these fora--will still hate you.
I think as a simple statement about one's self-knowledge regarding moral questions, if you would save the life of an unborn you would also save the life of the sick, long as it's within your power. Whether that means everyone has the right to live to 101, don't ask me. This question will only get more vexing as we go along.
on edit: It's time we started understanding that maximum duration of life is not always good for us, and may be unnatural. Some people's religion requires it, but that's their affair. They should be able to pay their own way if they want to live to 101. We are not a religion state.
the exchange between kaysixteen and writing prof about sums up the typical way it's discussed among learned folk. I wish there were other ways. there probably are but I'm not that well read. So there. Beat you to it.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 12, 2020, 03:20:41 PM
Judging by today's hearing, the answer to this thread's title question is a hearty yes.

Also, Democratic attempts to conflate filling this existing seat with "packing the Court" are sweet, in a my-five-year-old-has-poop-on-the-back-of-his-legs kind of way.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 12, 2020, 03:28:10 PM
Judging by today's hearing, the answer to this thread's title question is a hearty yes.

Also, Democratic attempts to conflate filling this existing seat with "packing the Court" are sweet ... .

When words lose their meaning, people lose their liberty.

--Attributed to Confucius
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on October 12, 2020, 08:48:22 PM
When Bush II was elected, I was doing research in Europe, and suggested my state might just want to cut along the dotted-line of the state boundaries and start rowing for France.

Now, I don't even know where to start rowing.

M.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on October 13, 2020, 08:36:01 AM
Hard to imagine a more self-destructive scenario for Republicans electorally: An unpopular congress confirms an unpopular judge in an unpopular context (right before an election), instead of passing a Coronavirus stimulus package. 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 13, 2020, 12:26:36 PM
Do the Republicans know this?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 13, 2020, 02:16:27 PM
LOL, the same could have been said about the passage of Obamacare.  An unpopular congress passes an unpopular bill in an unpopular context (a few months before the midterms), instead of blah blah blah.  People got over it and learned to like the damn thing. 

And the real similarity is in what happens next.  Democrats got "shellacked" in the election, then Republicans failed in their turn, then Democrats got elected again.  Republicans will get shellacked in this election, then Democrats will fail, then Republicans will be back in office.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on October 13, 2020, 02:36:03 PM
LOL, the same could have been said about the passage of Obamacare.  An unpopular congress passes an unpopular bill in an unpopular context (a few months before the midterms), instead of blah blah blah.  People got over it and learned to like the damn thing. 

And the real similarity is in what happens next.  Democrats got "shellacked" in the election, then Republicans failed in their turn, then Democrats got elected again.  Republicans will get shellacked in this election, then Democrats will fail, then Republicans will be back in office.

As Thomas Sowell says 'there are very few solutions. Mostly tradeoffs.'
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 13, 2020, 05:16:04 PM
I sampled some video of Amy being interrogated today.

The high point was at or near the beginning when Senator Hirono asked her if she had ever sexually assaulted anybody!

For Kavanaugh there was an accusation. For Amy, they had to ask.

Gimme a break.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 13, 2020, 06:35:25 PM
The high point was at or near the beginning when Senator Hirono asked her if she had ever sexually assaulted anybody!

I saw this reported but assumed I had stumbled onto a parody site.  Why on earth would she ask that? 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Sun_Worshiper on October 13, 2020, 07:54:01 PM
LOL, the same could have been said about the passage of Obamacare.  An unpopular congress passes an unpopular bill in an unpopular context (a few months before the midterms), instead of blah blah blah.  People got over it and learned to like the damn thing. 

And the real similarity is in what happens next.  Democrats got "shellacked" in the election, then Republicans failed in their turn, then Democrats got elected again.  Republicans will get shellacked in this election, then Democrats will fail, then Republicans will be back in office.

Weird comparison, but ok...

Remind me what the "blah blah blah" was in 2010 that compares to stimulus during a pandemic induced recession?

Also, Obamacare was signed into law March 2010, several months before a midterm election, not weeks ahead of a Presidential election that the incumbent is likely to lose by a large margin. 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 14, 2020, 06:19:48 PM
After sampling a lot more, my amateur communications cum social psychology knowledge leaves me to believe Ms. Amy was so credible and even compassionate that  no one could be against her on substance. While one or two [women] tried to nail her, Ms. Amy was essentially non-Borked.

She will pass on a party line vote, maybe even including the east and west northernmost states.

Finis opera.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: kaysixteen on October 14, 2020, 09:53:17 PM
That's almost certainly true.  It still doesn't obviate the stench of the extreme hypocrisy McConnell and co. showed in ramming this down the country's throats in 100% contravention of their own Garland-era rules change.   If she is seated, and the Democrats run the table in the upcoming election, the SCOTUS GOP supermajority had best realize that the Democrats will do many things, perhaps (but not necessarily including) packing the court, to have their day, in a way that might marginalize the GOP forever, esp if Barrett is the deciding vote for nuking the ACA, and overreaching what the country will accept now wrt Roe (on this latter issue, I, a pro-lifer whose early adult years saw me supporting the GOP increasingly only because of abortion, grow  tired of the broken promises-- I still contend that the GOP establishment is and has been for decades using pro-lifers on this issue, and probably will not be stopping now).
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: ciao_yall on October 15, 2020, 08:00:01 AM
That's almost certainly true.  It still doesn't obviate the stench of the extreme hypocrisy McConnell and co. showed in ramming this down the country's throats in 100% contravention of their own Garland-era rules change.   If she is seated, and the Democrats run the table in the upcoming election, the SCOTUS GOP supermajority had best realize that the Democrats will do many things, perhaps (but not necessarily including) packing the court, to have their day, in a way that might marginalize the GOP forever, esp if Barrett is the deciding vote for nuking the ACA, and overreaching what the country will accept now wrt Roe (on this latter issue, I, a pro-lifer whose early adult years saw me supporting the GOP increasingly only because of abortion, grow  tired of the broken promises-- I still contend that the GOP establishment is and has been for decades using pro-lifers on this issue, and probably will not be stopping now).

The "Trojan Fetus" strategy.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 15, 2020, 08:41:02 AM
So strongly do I feel about the issue that I am happy to vote for Republicans purely on the basis of their anti-abortion rhetoric.  As a side note, I encourage those of you on the left to consider whether Democrats use racial-"justice" issues similarly, and whether you are equally gullible to fall for that.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 15, 2020, 10:24:11 AM
Because hardly any of us agree on all issues and some of us hold strong views on issues important to us, it is too much to ask of any institution to make it right for the many. How do you get people who disagree with each other vehemently to live together peacefully? Certainly not majoritarian democracy. However, federalism will work if it is allowed to.

Let us not for get that Justice Ginsburg was highly critical of Roe vs. Wade as a judicial decision. One reason she gave, not her only reason, was that some States had already legalized termination of pregnancy in first trimester, and more States were reasonably expected to do so.

Had that process been allowed to run its course controversy would largely have ceased within a few additional years.

[Note that while R v W has large symbolic meaning, it is no longer operative. Casey is operative. Now that's an idiotic decision, tellingly brokered by Sandra Day O'Connor, more a politician than a judge.]
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: Hegemony on October 16, 2020, 03:52:50 AM
I am curious about why folks like Writingprof vote Republican for their at least nominal anti-abortion position, but disregard the reality of the refugee children in cages, which has been well documented.  I can think of some ways that people might dismiss the children in cages, but I'm not sure which position is the influential one —

• Those children are not Americans and therefore I don't care about their suffering.
• Those children are not Americans and they don't suffer the way American children would, so their situation doesn't matter. (This is the genuine position of someone I know — "those people" don't have feelings like we do; they're basically just animals and don't have any responses we need to care about.)
• Those children's parents shouldn't have been trying to get into the country (the fact that it is legal is irrelevant; it shouldn't be legal), and the suffering of their children, as well as their own suffering, is an appropriate punishment for their immoral behavior.
• It is all made up by the media, who are dishonest frauds, and none of it is happening.  And if it were happening, I would be in favor of it anyway.
• All those children who may never see their parents again are at least alive, or all except the few who died in custody, so their suffering is negligible compared to rhetoric meant to stop fetuses being born.  Abortions will be performed illegally if the Republicans can get the law overturned, but probably fewer of them, and the women who die from the illegal abortions (as happened not infrequently before Roe vs. Wade) will not be innocent anyway and it will be a good deterrent against the others, just as having their children caged should be a good deterrent for refugees.

Or maybe all of the above?
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on October 16, 2020, 05:27:13 AM
Here's what envision in the mind of the person hegemony asks
A person who believes for certain that abortion is murder chooses republican because of the sheer numbers of abortions as opposed to the numbers of refugee children in cages. You don't have to delve into bizarre theories like 'those kids aren't really suffering.'
If you believe both sides commit atrocities, you would be forced to go with the side that does it with less efficiency. As a practical matter.
If you're going to talk pure ideology you might believe the reason abortions go on even when they are illegal is that we as a society have neglected to teach our children that it is wrong. Again, the left would be the problem.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: apl68 on October 16, 2020, 08:15:55 AM
Actually there are a lot of serious pro-life supporters who also try to support refugees.  Mahogonny is correct that there are others who consider abortion the greater of two evils because of the sheer number who are killed by it.  The genocide going on in their own country seems a more urgent cause than the refugees fleeing genocide abroad.

Trying to vote pro-life in this country often puts voters in a harsh bind.  Our political class is overwhelmingly in favor of abortion.  But some cynically support pro-life causes (or at least profess to) as a vote-getter.  Many pro-life voters feel compelled to vote for the cynics because the issue is so urgent for them.  They're prepared to sacrifice ideological purity on other issues in their voting to support something that is of the greatest importance to them. 

If people only voted for candidates who think just like they do, and hold just the right ideas on each and every policy, their party would never win an election, and none of the policies they support would ever be enacted.  Sometimes--often--voters have to give up some things they'd like to see to try to get other things.  Something the left is trying to remind themselves of right now, as they prepare to vote for a presidential candidate that most of them seem at best lukewarm about.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: kaysixteen on October 16, 2020, 09:56:24 PM
If SCOTUS really does eviscerate Roe (something I am still dubious about), then we pro-lifers do have to answer two related questions, at least one of which makes pro-life-asserting politicians run and stammer like morons, whilst the other is usually never brought up at all"

1) if abortion is illegal, what punishment should be imposed on abortionists and women who hire them?

2) regardless of what punishment is to be imposed, how much law enforcement attention should be put forth to catch and then prosecute those guilty of having/ performing an illegal abortion (things like investigations of miscarriages, etc, come to mind).
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: financeguy on October 17, 2020, 12:08:56 AM
I'm pro choice philosophically although I'd never lift a finger for the cause. The reason is that there are very few libertarian leaning women, therefore I am not going to fight for the protections of a group on their needle moving issue when they aren't willing to give me the same consideration on far less consequential issues of freedom and state intervention in my life. Bottom line for me is that if you're a woman who isn't "pro choice" across the board then you deserve having the state legislate your reproductive decisions. I'll make my political decisions independent of that issue.

Also, constantly telling men they "shouldn't have an opinion" one way or the other just solidifies my indifference toward the cause. As usual, the left proves their skill in alienating a potential ally. You're 51% of the population and could theoretically vote in any agenda under the sun. Not my problem.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 17, 2020, 05:00:01 AM
• All those children who may never see their parents again are at least alive, or all except the few who died in custody, so their suffering is negligible compared to rhetoric meant to stop fetuses being born. 

This bullet point dissolves into inanity after the words "compared to."  What you mean to say, but can't quite bring yourself to utter, is that some voters may find the suffering of migrant children to be negligible compared to the suffering of children executed in the American holocaust that is abortion.

That's my position; I can't speak for others.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on October 17, 2020, 07:37:06 AM
Barrett is now referred to as a 'right wing supremacist.' What does that even mean? They left out 'racist.' How does a racist white couple adopt Haitian children? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/17/dianne-feinstein-lindsey-graham-hug
Ibram Kendi has some theory about how she adopted them in order to pose as a non-racist or some such. I can't wrap my brain around what that guy's saying.
If abortion were illegal, which probably won't happen anyway, the black population would grow in proportion.
I'm confused that there isn't more push back against these fringe ideas. They're becoming mainstream. Or at least the media would make you think that.
Barrett's associates at Notre Dame ask her to delay process. I can see why they would. there has to be some semblance of symmetry in the process when they are nominated this late in the term. And they are careful to note that none of the controversy is her fault.
 https://www.businessinsider.com/barretts-colleagues-university-of-notre-dame-ask-her-delay-nomination-2020-10

Obviously, to me, writingprof is one of those voters who would like abortion illegal because he feels a moral imperative to vote that way. Not hard for me to believe he's sincere. Do I agree? Don't ask me!
Quote
Also, constantly telling men they "shouldn't have an opinion" one way or the other just solidifies my indifference toward the cause. As usual, the left proves their skill in alienating a potential ally. You're 51% of the population and could theoretically vote in any agenda under the sun. Not my problem.

In a way it's a relief to say 'let the women decide.'
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: marshwiggle on October 17, 2020, 07:42:44 AM
• All those children who may never see their parents again are at least alive, or all except the few who died in custody, so their suffering is negligible compared to rhetoric meant to stop fetuses being born. 

This bullet point dissolves into inanity after the words "compared to."  What you mean to say, but can't quite bring yourself to utter, is that some voters may find the suffering of migrant children to be negligible compared to the suffering of children executed in the American holocaust that is abortion.


That's clear in the poster's use of "fetuses" vs "children". The inconvenient fact that fetuses become children in the normal course of events can be overlooked.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 17, 2020, 11:54:53 AM
• All those children who may never see their parents again are at least alive, or all except the few who died in custody, so their suffering is negligible compared to rhetoric meant to stop fetuses being born. 

This bullet point dissolves into inanity after the words "compared to."  What you mean to say, but can't quite bring yourself to utter, is that some voters may find the suffering of migrant children to be negligible compared to the suffering of children executed in the American holocaust that is abortion.


That's clear in the poster's use of "fetuses" vs "children". The inconvenient fact that fetuses become children in the normal course of events can be overlooked.

Either abortion means nothing or we have murdered 50 million children since 1973.  I see no middle ground and actually have grudging respect for those abortion advocates who ask, not always rhetorically, "Why should we want fewer abortions?"  Given their assumptions, those people are exactly right!  If abortion is meaningless, we shouldn't care about the number.  If it's meaningful, the number must be zero, or as close to zero as we can make it. 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 17, 2020, 12:09:58 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mahagonny on October 17, 2020, 12:42:03 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

I can see that there could be people willing to go that route. Wars are horrible things but they do gets things settled.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 17, 2020, 02:17:40 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

No, because, dammit, people from the new "pro-life" country would just pursue abortion tourism in the pro-abortion neighbor.  It's a problem without a solution . . . which is why I'll be banging my head against the wall and voting for stupid Republicans for the next forty years . . . unless I eat myself to death before then, which is the goal.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 17, 2020, 03:00:30 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

No, because, dammit, people from the new "pro-life" country would just pursue abortion tourism in the pro-abortion neighbor.  It's a problem without a solution . . . which is why I'll be banging my head against the wall and voting for stupid Republicans for the next forty years . . . unless I eat myself to death before then, which is the goal.

Yes, of course. That's one of the beauties of the federalism solution -- people can follow their own God at a non prohibitive cost.

[By the way, it was not thus before the Civil War. Free states were obliged to return escaped slaves to their owners in slave states.]

Current situation and structure or Federalism or Civil War. Everybody take one's pick.

 
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 17, 2020, 03:49:54 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

No, because, dammit, people from the new "pro-life" country would just pursue abortion tourism in the pro-abortion neighbor.  It's a problem without a solution . . . which is why I'll be banging my head against the wall and voting for stupid Republicans for the next forty years . . . unless I eat myself to death before then, which is the goal.

Yes, of course. That's one of the beauties of the federalism solution -- people can follow their own God at a non prohibitive cost.

[By the way, it was not thus before the Civil War. Free states were obliged to return escaped slaves to their owners in slave states.]

Current situation and structure or Federalism or Civil War. Everybody take one's pick.

Ah, federalism. Beloved by Democrats whenever a Republican is in the White House. Hated at other times. Let's see how much you still love federalism when my red state is resisting Biden initiatives.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 17, 2020, 03:58:28 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

No, because, dammit, people from the new "pro-life" country would just pursue abortion tourism in the pro-abortion neighbor.  It's a problem without a solution . . . which is why I'll be banging my head against the wall and voting for stupid Republicans for the next forty years . . . unless I eat myself to death before then, which is the goal.

Yes, of course. That's one of the beauties of the federalism solution -- people can follow their own God at a non prohibitive cost.

[By the way, it was not thus before the Civil War. Free states were obliged to return escaped slaves to their owners in slave states.]

Current situation and structure or Federalism or Civil War. Everybody take one's pick.

Ah, federalism. Beloved by Democrats whenever a Republican is in the White House. Hated at other times. Let's see how much you still love federalism when my red state is resisting Biden initiatives.

Beloved by me, for all seasons.

[Of course, no worries, there are only four of us. I think I have two of the others' fax numbers.]
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on October 17, 2020, 04:06:11 PM
We could of course have another civil war to settle the issue.

No, because, dammit, people from the new "pro-life" country would just pursue abortion tourism in the pro-abortion neighbor.  It's a problem without a solution . . . which is why I'll be banging my head against the wall and voting for stupid Republicans for the next forty years . . . unless I eat myself to death before then, which is the goal.

Yes, of course. That's one of the beauties of the federalism solution -- people can follow their own God at a non prohibitive cost.

[By the way, it was not thus before the Civil War. Free states were obliged to return escaped slaves to their owners in slave states.]

Current situation and structure or Federalism or Civil War. Everybody take one's pick.

Ah, federalism. Beloved by Democrats whenever a Republican is in the White House. Hated at other times. Let's see how much you still love federalism when my red state is resisting Biden initiatives.

I'd say there are plenty of contradictions on both sides. R's haven't exactly flocked to embrace Federalism anytime California enacts something they don't like in state law.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 17, 2020, 04:10:32 PM
Quote
R's haven't exactly flocked to embrace Federalism anytime California enacts something they don't like in state law.

It's not about liking; it's about doing. If a State doesn't like Law Z passed in California, it doesn't have to pass Law Z, and it doesn't.

Everything else is commentary.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: jimbogumbo on October 17, 2020, 04:26:04 PM
Quote
R's haven't exactly flocked to embrace Federalism anytime California enacts something they don't like in state law.

It's not about liking; it's about doing. If a State doesn't like Law Z passed in California, it doesn't have to pass Law Z, and it doesn't.

Everything else is commentary.

Well, I know that. I don't think my President does though.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: dismalist on October 17, 2020, 05:13:32 PM
Quote
Well, I know that. I don't think my President does though.

And I never liked Juan Peron.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: writingprof on October 18, 2020, 05:45:08 AM
Quote
R's haven't exactly flocked to embrace Federalism anytime California enacts something they don't like in state law.

It's not about liking; it's about doing. If a State doesn't like Law Z passed in California, it doesn't have to pass Law Z, and it doesn't.

Everything else is commentary.

This is true.  However, a rather anti-federalist trend in recent years has been district court judges creating nationwide injunctions.  Happily, I suspect that the Amy Coney Barrett Court will put a stop to that nonsense right soon.
Title: Re: Will Trump be able to get a justice to replace RBG before the next inaguaration?
Post by: mamselle on October 18, 2020, 10:33:59 AM
If wars got things settled, we would have neither the splits over economic/lifestyle models as virtue-signaling, nor over racism, as polarizing the country right now.

You wouldn't  even have a basis for suggesting something as horrible as civil war so jovially, in fact, if that were the case.

M.