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21
General Discussion / Re: Why Impotus will resign
« Last post by Sun_Worshiper on Today at 07:46:03 AM »
Thoughts?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

Interesting, but reductionist and also raises some questions: What about a situation where one primary has 17 or 18 candidates and the other has one incumbent?  With the second primaries being in a red state, does it really matter how well Biden did? 

Bottom line: These predictive models are interesting and fun to look at, but should be taken with a lot of of salt.

 
22
General Discussion / Re: Preparing for Coronavirus?
« Last post by apl68 on Today at 07:38:58 AM »
Perhaps the recent surge in the number of new Caronavirus cases in many areas of the U.S. has awakened or reawakened sanitation concerns, putting store ordering, shipping, and manufacturing beind again? Ask a clerk/stocker when new shipments are expected. Their "hand held" technologies allow them to research such. I tried a "store to store", 30 mile search for Lysol spray disinfectant last week [different than cleaner].

I think the hand held technologies are one of the main reasons why shipments are gone so quickly.  They facilitate the instant spread of insider info about new shipments.  Those who get this info and are in a position to respond quickly and ruthlessly have the advantage.  Just another example of the ways in which all kinds of playing fields are becoming less level due to technology.
23
General Discussion / Re: Why Impotus will resign
« Last post by jimbogumbo on Today at 07:36:53 AM »
Thoughts?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

I'm always awake to the possibility that I am just dumb.  But I have never understood these percentage-based predictions.  Trump has a 91% chance of winning?  Not a 90% chance?  Not a 92% chance?  Since a model like that is not testable after the fact (even if Trump wins, how do we know that he had a 91% chance of winning?), it's not clear to me how the model's veracity can ever be proven.

Completely agree, but I'll take it a step further. The veracity CAN'T be proven. The pollsters who make such claims are the political equivalents of Jean Dixon.
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General Discussion / Re: What's your weather?
« Last post by apl68 on Today at 07:29:00 AM »
Heavy rain earlier this week.  Now sunny and brutally hot and humid.

One of our staff slept through the overnight rain and was stunned when she had to detour coming in to work due to flooding.  She noted that usually it takes a couple of days of rain to cause such flooding.  She blamed the flooding on beaver dams and such stopping up creeks.  Maybe--but I suspect that we got as much rain that night as we usually get in a couple of days.  Those extreme rains are becoming more common.
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General Discussion / Re: Dinner--or Dessert--Tonight
« Last post by apl68 on Today at 07:25:40 AM »
Either leftover roast and potatoes, or green salad wrapped in corn tortillas with hummus.  Depends on my mood when I get home.
26
General Discussion / Re: Post your asides here
« Last post by FishProf on Today at 07:07:56 AM »
Unrelated to the above:

   Contrarians gonna be contrary.

M.

We are NOT!

Thanks, I needed that chuckle.

M.

No you didn't!
27
General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by Caracal on Today at 06:38:40 AM »


Of course, your reasons for being skeptical of a vaccine are valid, for everyone else it is about their irrational beliefs?
[/quote]

I haven't noticed you demonstating any humility about the chances that you are wrong about anything. If you want to descend into snark, well, that's your choice.
[/quote]

I might be wrong about all sorts of things, which is why I prefer to outsource my decisions on vaccines to people who have expertise. I actually think there's something pretty unpleasant about telling us you wouldn't get a hypothetical vaccine, the larger public health be damned, but other people who don't trust experts are a bunch of deluded rubes causing a crisis.
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General Discussion / Re: Why Impotus will resign
« Last post by writingprof on Today at 06:25:01 AM »
Thoughts?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

I'm always awake to the possibility that I am just dumb.  But I have never understood these percentage-based predictions.  Trump has a 91% chance of winning?  Not a 90% chance?  Not a 92% chance?  Since a model like that is not testable after the fact (even if Trump wins, how do we know that he had a 91% chance of winning?), it's not clear to me how the model's veracity can ever be proven.
29
General Discussion / Re: Preparing for Coronavirus?
« Last post by Economizer on Today at 06:20:09 AM »
Perhaps the recent surge in the number of new Caronavirus cases in many areas of the U.S. has awakened or reawakened sanitation concerns, putting store ordering, shipping, and manufacturing beind again? Ask a clerk/stocker when new shipments are expected. Their "hand held" technologies allow them to research such. I tried a "store to store", 30 mile search for Lysol spray disinfectant last week [different than cleaner].

30
General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by writingprof on Today at 06:19:08 AM »
In the time of coronavirus, a poem about America:

https://twitter.com/Guinz/status/1280698069932277760

Hilarious and sad.
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