Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 10893 times)

clean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2020, 02:17:19 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-state-secrecy-in-china-probably-allowed-the-coronavirus-to-spread-farther-and-faster/ar-BBZya9o

"nside the quarantine zone. hospitals have openly pleaded on social media for donations of basic equipment like masks and protective suits. Wuhan residents widely report a severe shortage of testing kits, raising the possibility that the true number of cases are far greater than the confirmed figures released by officials."

"After city hospitals were overwhelmed by patients who sought coronavirus tests, local authorities this week announced hospitals would only give tests to those who showed severe symptoms and obtained a referral from smaller neighborhood clinics."


I fear that this is far more widespread and perhaps that the death rate is well under reported.  Im not thinking that this will become another Spanish Flu sort of thing, but it is something to monitor and I wonder how one CAN monitor it when the Chinese government has been doing everything it can to suppress information.

"Person-to-person spread occurred as early as mid-December, and cases were doubling every seven days.

Yet in Wuhan, local cadres were focused on a days-long Communist Party conclave that was scheduled to run from Jan. 11 to Jan. 17. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission each day claimed there were no new infections or deaths."

"Medical professionals who tried to sound an alarm were seized by police. Key state media omitted mention of the outbreak for weeks. Cadres focused on maintaining stability — and praising party leader Xi Jinping — as the crisis worsened.

“China’s public health system has modernized, but China’s political system hasn’t,” said Jude Blanchette, head of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If anything, there’s been a regression.”
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

polly_mer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2020, 06:32:51 AM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

Anselm

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2020, 08:03:14 AM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.

Can I have your stereo?

clean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2020, 02:15:06 PM »
https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-science-model-finds-coronavirus-numbers-significantly-too-low-disease-will-double-in-size-in-less-than-a-week


"
The shocking results of the study, which was performed by experts at the University of Hong Kong, found that as of Jan. 25, more than 75,000 people in Wuhan had likely already contracted the disease, a number nearly 100 times greater than what the official record stated. At the time, there were just 761 reported confirmations of the disease in the Wuhan area.

Even more alarming is the fact that the disease doubles in the number of infections every 6.4 days, the experts found.
"
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

polly_mer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2020, 02:36:46 PM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.

Can I have your stereo?

I'll put you in the will now.
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

Wahoo Redux

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2020, 06:11:36 PM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.

Can I have your stereo?

I'll put you in the will now.

Polly, I completely believe you are waaaaaaay too tough for any stupid virus.  I actually feel sorry for the coronavirus that messes with you.

polly_mer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2020, 07:15:33 PM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.

Can I have your stereo?

I'll put you in the will now.

Polly, I completely believe you are waaaaaaay too tough for any stupid virus.  I actually feel sorry for the coronavirus that messes with you.

The new bookshelves are yours, Wahoo, if I don't make it.
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

Wahoo Redux

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2020, 07:41:10 PM »
I live in a community that has a lot of international travel for work including China, we went to a school open house on Wednesday, and now I have a severe cold for which I called in sick to work on Friday.

If I don't make it, then it's been nice knowing you all.

Can I have your stereo?

I'll put you in the will now.

Polly, I completely believe you are waaaaaaay too tough for any stupid virus.  I actually feel sorry for the coronavirus that messes with you.

The new bookshelves are yours, Wahoo, if I don't make it.

Ha!  Polly, you are going to be slugging back home-brewed brewskies long after the rest of us are being used as fertilizer in the fields of the next dominant species, which will be puffins, of course.

mahagonny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2020, 07:58:27 PM »

ex_mo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #24 on: February 03, 2020, 11:22:18 AM »
https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-science-model-finds-coronavirus-numbers-significantly-too-low-disease-will-double-in-size-in-less-than-a-week


"
The shocking results of the study, which was performed by experts at the University of Hong Kong, found that as of Jan. 25, more than 75,000 people in Wuhan had likely already contracted the disease, a number nearly 100 times greater than what the official record stated. At the time, there were just 761 reported confirmations of the disease in the Wuhan area.

Even more alarming is the fact that the disease doubles in the number of infections every 6.4 days, the experts found.
"

The Blaze? Really?

I wouldn't trust any information from that website.

Wahoo Redux

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #25 on: February 03, 2020, 11:42:07 AM »
https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-science-model-finds-coronavirus-numbers-significantly-too-low-disease-will-double-in-size-in-less-than-a-week


"
The shocking results of the study, which was performed by experts at the University of Hong Kong, found that as of Jan. 25, more than 75,000 people in Wuhan had likely already contracted the disease, a number nearly 100 times greater than what the official record stated. At the time, there were just 761 reported confirmations of the disease in the Wuhan area.

Even more alarming is the fact that the disease doubles in the number of infections every 6.4 days, the experts found.
"

The Blaze? Really?

I wouldn't trust any information from that website.

Well, here is the paper the Blaze article initially references. 

And here is the Business Insider article The Blaze also references.

Come on biologists and statisticians, do your thing.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 11:48:36 AM by Wahoo Redux »

mythbuster

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #26 on: February 03, 2020, 01:06:06 PM »
I was at an infectious disease conference over the weekend. The keynote speaker was the head of one our the nations regional special pathogens unit and was scheduled to talk about "Emerging zoonotic viruses". So it was a packed house. He spent a lot of time discussing bats. Just stay away from bats, as they are amazing disease vectors. He also said that the epidemiologists have gotten really good at mathematical modelling of how these diseases play out. As of Saturday, his best guess was that this would not become a pandemic. Now, as of this morning, the NY Times disagrees with him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

But the NYTimes makes a VERY good point about this spreading the Africa as opposed to Europe or N. America, where everyone is on high alert at the first sniffle. And 2 continents officially constitutes a pandemic. It is WELL known and has been for years that China under reports all infectious diseases (HIV is a huge taboo there). So I'm guessing the math modelling folks have that taken into account. Until we start seeing significant spread of cases in the US from non-travelers I really wouldn't worry too much.

spork

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2020, 02:28:21 PM »
My wife and I discuss bat soup periodically. Ebola outbreak in 2014, for example.

bacardiandlime

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #28 on: February 04, 2020, 04:13:34 PM »
Apparently 492 dead?
There was a paper in the Lancet predicting that the actual number infected more like 150,000...

secundem_artem

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #29 on: February 04, 2020, 06:58:49 PM »
I wonder if there is a Mexican brewery somewhere hoping desperately somebody discovers the new Bud Light Virus.
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