Author Topic: 2020 Elections  (Read 29571 times)

mahagonny

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #600 on: July 31, 2020, 06:39:11 PM »
I notice also  that rioting has been getting popular. What's popular isn't necessarily what I like.

I don't know what poll you're looking at. This one says 70% of Americans believe BLM has not improved race relations.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/poll-70-percent-of-americans-think-black-lives-matter-has-not-improved-race-relations/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 06:43:53 PM by mahagonny »

Sun_Worshiper

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #601 on: July 31, 2020, 07:03:07 PM »

mahagonny

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #602 on: July 31, 2020, 07:25:42 PM »
How many of those polled are either

1. Police who were injured trying to control crowds
2. People whose residence is where the rioting is going on
3. People whose place of  business has been vandalized or looted

It may turn out that time is not your friend with campaigns like this one. Maybe at some point people say 'all right you've made your point. We get it. Now go home and get a life already.'

Time will tell. It's fun to speculate.

« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 07:39:53 PM by mahagonny »

permanent imposter

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #603 on: July 31, 2020, 08:15:42 PM »
It's striking how few people are on the fence this time around. Or maybe those who are just keep quiet. I wouldn't blame them, if so.

There are perhaps twenty actual racists in the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/us/hate-groups-rise.html -- more than twenty I'd reckon.

mahagonny

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #604 on: July 31, 2020, 08:41:36 PM »
If I have a beer with my neighbor and it turns out we both dislike the same third neighbor, are we a hate group?

Offhand, I'd say we hate each other at record levels this year.

(Confession: did not read the article. I am not a subscriber.)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 08:43:58 PM by mahagonny »

kaysixteen

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #605 on: July 31, 2020, 09:53:25 PM »
"vaiid survey design", "prospect theory/ loss aversion"-- where are such concepts usually taught, and how does one with no background in these things evaluate polls, etc, which may or may not be taking such concepts into account, and how, further, can one learn these things, without, ahem, enrolling in a college course where they might be taught?  Truth be told, i have never heard of 'prospect theory', and probably could only guess as to what it means, or why/ how its inclusion into a poll might help said poll's accuracy, but I am more than willing to be corrected, esp since I do know that polls can be and often are deliberately skewed in order to produce results desired by the pollsters and/ or their funders (anyone recall the wonderful scene in 'Yes, Prime Minister', where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how this can be done?)?

spork

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #606 on: August 01, 2020, 07:01:05 AM »
Prospect theory is basically the foundation of behavioral economics.

Susan Collins' re-election campaign screws up again:

https://www.salon.com/2020/08/01/susan-collins-ads-seem-to-feature-ordinary-people--but-dont-reveal-their-ties-to-maine-gop/.

Puget

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #607 on: August 01, 2020, 07:10:40 AM »
"vaiid survey design", "prospect theory/ loss aversion"-- where are such concepts usually taught, and how does one with no background in these things evaluate polls, etc, which may or may not be taking such concepts into account, and how, further, can one learn these things, without, ahem, enrolling in a college course where they might be taught?  Truth be told, i have never heard of 'prospect theory', and probably could only guess as to what it means, or why/ how its inclusion into a poll might help said poll's accuracy, but I am more than willing to be corrected, esp since I do know that polls can be and often are deliberately skewed in order to produce results desired by the pollsters and/ or their funders (anyone recall the wonderful scene in 'Yes, Prime Minister', where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how this can be done?)?

If you want a general popular science introduction to concepts from behavioral economics (psychologists get a bit miffed by this term because it's really just cognitive psychology with some economics language), I'd suggest the book Nudge by Sunstein and Thaler or Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his pioneering behavioral economics work, including loss aversion).

If you want smart modeling and data journalism about politics, you can't do better than FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.com). They also have a weekly politics podcast with a recurring "good use of polling/bad use of polling" feature that is quite educational.
"Never get separated from your lunch. Never get separated from your friends. Never climb up anything you can't climb down."
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spork

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #608 on: August 01, 2020, 07:51:19 AM »
"vaiid survey design", "prospect theory/ loss aversion"-- where are such concepts usually taught, and how does one with no background in these things evaluate polls, etc, which may or may not be taking such concepts into account, and how, further, can one learn these things, without, ahem, enrolling in a college course where they might be taught?  Truth be told, i have never heard of 'prospect theory', and probably could only guess as to what it means, or why/ how its inclusion into a poll might help said poll's accuracy, but I am more than willing to be corrected, esp since I do know that polls can be and often are deliberately skewed in order to produce results desired by the pollsters and/ or their funders (anyone recall the wonderful scene in 'Yes, Prime Minister', where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how this can be done?)?

If you want a general popular science introduction to concepts from behavioral economics (psychologists get a bit miffed by this term because it's really just cognitive psychology with some economics language), I'd suggest the book Nudge by Sunstein and Thaler or Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his pioneering behavioral economics work, including loss aversion).

If you want smart modeling and data journalism about politics, you can't do better than FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.com). They also have a weekly politics podcast with a recurring "good use of polling/bad use of polling" feature that is quite educational.

In addition to the books above, I can recommend Thaler's Misbehaving (part autobiography, part history of the field) and Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational.

When it comes to survey design, questions can be constructed to deliberately play upon respondents' cognitive biases and thereby skew the results. E.g., "When polled, nine out of ten people say they believe there is evidence that Hillary Clinton is running a child sex trafficking ring from a pizza parlor in Washington, DC. Would you vote for a candidate other than Hillary Clinton?"

Related: for the election in 2016, surveys were indicating that Hillary Clinton had something like an 80% chance of winning (I can't remember what the exact figure was, using 80% as an example). Unfamiliarity with probability led many to conclude "Clinton will win by a ratio of 4:1" not "if this election was repeated many times under the same conditions, Trump would win on average 1 out of every 5 times."

I am still predicting that Collins will lose in Maine. I think it's in the loss column for the Republicans in the U.S. Senate.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 07:58:26 AM by spork »

writingprof

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #609 on: August 01, 2020, 08:00:19 AM »
It's striking how few people are on the fence this time around. Or maybe those who are just keep quiet. I wouldn't blame them, if so.

There are perhaps twenty actual racists in the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/us/hate-groups-rise.html -- more than twenty I'd reckon.

Are you seriously citing the Southern Poverty Law Center as a legitimate source?  Even the Left acknowledges that the SPLC are ridiculous frauds.  Here's a fine take-down in Current Affairs.  Feel free to skip to the section entitled "Focusing on the Wrong Thing."

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/the-southern-poverty-law-center-is-everything-thats-wrong-with-liberalism

jimbogumbo

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Re: 2020 Elections
« Reply #610 on: August 01, 2020, 09:00:08 AM »
This is a great course from the University of Washington. I just investigated the links in the syllabus. https://www.callingbullshit.org/syllabus.html