How do you think that things will change after the CV19 issues have been resolved, or at least we get tired of talking about them?
How long will the crisis last?
Will the illness have political requssions? (who is looking better and who worse?)
Will you university change much?
Here is MY first Prediction:
I predict that there will be a Santa Clause Baby Boom this year.
With few places to go, what will people do?.... I wonder?
Will it by like after a blackout or a hurricane, only nationwide?
Many SLAC's will bite the dust.
I am expecting higher inflation sue to the newly created money, just not in the next few months. Despite the monetary relief we can expect an economic depression. In fact, I am declaring it already here. I won't wait for some survey or revised GDP figures as in normal times. There will be a few sucker rallies in the markets but it may take a long time for a full recovery.
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Healthcare will adjust to not be so dependent on a global supply chain.
Many employers will see that some workers are more productive and happy working from home and will stick with that option.
But it's too soon to make predictions!!! We can't respond now to changing circumstances!!!! We first need to wait for two, six, maybe twenty years to know we understand the problem!!!!
In the USA the pandemic will accelerate the shift to online commerce and away from national retailers known primarily for their brick-and-mortar operations. Several will close. I'm thinking of companies like Macy's, which, as its traditional customer base disappeared due to increased income inequality, should have shifted to focusing on its prime real estate holdings. Drive-to shopping mall complexes will close at a faster pace.
Quote from: spork on March 29, 2020, 04:26:36 AM
But it's too soon to make predictions!!! We can't respond now to changing circumstances!!!! We first need to wait for two, six, maybe twenty years to know we understand the problem!!!!
If we develop a proposal for a Professor of Post-CV19 Studies, they may be on board in two years, they'd have published something by six, and they will be starting to understand the situation in depth by twenty. Who says the academy isn't useful?
Quote from: Anselm on March 28, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 05:33:32 AM
Quote from: Anselm on March 28, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.
Yeah, give us a break. In five years we will barely remember this.
Quote from: writingprof on March 29, 2020, 05:37:16 AM
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 05:33:32 AM
Quote from: Anselm on March 28, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.
Yeah, give us a break. In five years we will barely remember this.
Don't know about that, but epidemics are not some new thing. Humans have been dealing with them for a very long time. That isn't to say that there hasn't been lots of adaptations in response to them, but in person connection is a pretty basic human need. I haven't seen a lot of people saying "hey now that I've realized I can just talk to the people I know on Zoom, I've realized I never want to go to a bar." God I'd love to go to a bar.
As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.
Quote from: writingprof on March 29, 2020, 06:53:29 AM
As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.
Yes, I recall that and I recall thinking, "what a fool."
Oooh! Baseless speculation! Here we go:
How long it'll last: Officially, say, after three weeks of 0 new cases. Actually: Canada may be starting up again in the late summer. For the US, I fully expect you'll start up before then, and go through a few more waves of it all. Unless it really does peak by mid-April.
But I'm guessing there'll be a lull period, and we'll have to reintroduce some of these measures again a few months later. Not that we'll have the stomach do so in the same way again.
Personally: I predict my courses will be cut back significantly by the winter semester, and I may be offered some sort of crappy online lifeline because, before this all started, I volunteered to teach a mided-modality course at our satellite campus a ferry ride away (nobody else wanted to, and if we didn't, they'd parachute someone with seniority into the department to do it and they'd gobble up our other courses).
More broadly: lots of cutbacks and school closures, definite recession and possible depression. It'll take a very long time to recover from the job losses and lost wages (which translate to a slower recovery in a lot of sectors, especially service). Air travel, hotels, and tourism are screwed until the fall.
Oh. And renewed inaction on climate change, because "we can't afford it".
Politically:Quote from: writingprof on March 29, 2020, 06:53:29 AM
As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.
IMO, these are the weeks when Biden definitively lost the election. I guess we'll see, and I suppose things could change, but I don't believe it for a second. He has no control over the narrative, and that vacuum favours Trump (whose pandemic approval rating is
above 50%!). That's the one-punch of the one-two punch. The two-punch is the credible rape allegation against him which, even if it struggles to get air time now, will be brought to the fore by the Republicans. Plus, visible cognitive decline. He's a goner.
That's my American political prediction. That, and renewed momentum for M4A. Whether it's sufficient to carry it past the Democrats, however, remains to be seen.
Canadawise, I have no idea, but it probably ends with the Tories back in power and one last attempt to prop up a dying fossil fuel economy.
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 29, 2020, 07:19:50 AM
Plus, visible cognitive decline. He's a goner.
Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 07:22:40 AM
Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.
Nah. I've just been following the campaign extremely closely. And I have years of experience caring for someone who had dementia. Biden has always been stupid, but he hasn't always been this inarticulate. Even in the recent past. And no, it's not a stutter.
But you know what? Even if I were to concede that Biden seems every bit as mentally with-it as he was five years ago, and that his outrageous lies and general inability to put together coherent sentences unprompted (there are exceptions, but it's the rule) are just a "stutter", that still leaves:
1. His lack of control over the coronavirus narrative.
2. His lack of leadership with respect to the coronavirus crisis.
3. Credible rape allegations.
And those things alone are enough to sink even a
good candidacy. Which his manifestly
isn't.
(And: yes, my preference, as an outsider, would have been Bernie. That hardly makes me a "Berniebro". And: no, I don't tweet.)
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 29, 2020, 07:48:51 AM
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 07:22:40 AM
Have you been hanging out in Bernie bro spaces on twitter? This is such bullcrap.
Nah. I've just been following the campaign extremely closely. And I have years of experience caring for someone who had dementia. Biden has always been stupid, but he hasn't always been this inarticulate. Even in the recent past. And no, it's not a stutter.
But you know what? Even if I were to concede that Biden seems every bit as mentally with-it as he was five years ago, and that his outrageous lies and general inability to put together coherent sentences unprompted (there are exceptions, but it's the rule) are just a "stutter", that still leaves
1. His lack of control over the coronavirus narrative.
2. His lack of leadership with respect to the coronavirus crisis.
3. Credible rape allegations.
And those things alone are enough to sink even a good candidacy. Which his manifestly isn't.
(And: yes, my preference, as an outsider, would have been Bernie. That hardly makes me a "Berniebro". And: no, I don't tweet.)
How is he supposed to control any of it? He's a presidential candidate, not the president. Genuinely perplexing take.
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 07:52:14 AM
How is he supposed to control any of it? He's a presidential candidate, not the president. Genuinely perplexing take.
I'm taking this to the 2020 election thread, (http://thefora.org/index.php?topic=203.msg24822#new) so's not to derail further.
It will be OK to say having public 'wet markets' where you bring livestock in, slaughter them on sight or sell them live, with unsanitary conditions and risks, is a bad idea, without being called racist.
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 05:33:32 AM
Quote from: Anselm on March 28, 2020, 11:02:25 PM
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.
No, those will end when the pandemic ends. What will continue are things like sanitizing surfaces, protective shields for cashiers and perhaps the end of handshakes. Maybe we will start bowing like the Japanese. There will be plans in place for a quick response to any new outbreak. Social distancing measures will be declared and enforced within 24 hours and society will have to be ready or that. There will be stricter travel bans to regions with epidemics, not just gentle travel warnings.
Quote
The precautions we are taking will become mostly permanent.
Like staying in our homes and not socializing? That seems extremely unlikely.
No, those will end when the pandemic ends. What will continue are things like sanitizing surfaces, protective shields for cashiers and perhaps the end of handshakes. Maybe we will start bowing like the Japanese. There will be plans in place for a quick response to any new outbreak. Social distancing measures will be declared and enforced within 24 hours and society will have to be ready or that. There will be stricter travel bans to regions with epidemics, not just gentle travel warnings.
I think that much of what we are doing now, will fall by the wayside. Much like the annual New Year's REsolutions, it wont take long for us to 'return to normal'.
This is not the first time that the hand sanitizer boxes have gone up. They go up anytime there is a flu outbreak in my area of the state. Then they go aw0ay.
Some of the changes are more permanent simply because it takes more action to undo them, like the plexiglass that has shown up at the grocery store.
Wash your hands for 20 seconds at a time? No, once the hussle and bussle returns, those 20 seconds are going to be used for whatever is more important at the time.
Do you think that the stores will have 'greeters' to hand you a wipe or to wipe your cart yourself? (And how stupid is it that they wipe it down AFTER you have already put your hands on it to get it into the door in the first place!? Shouldnt they 'issue' you a cleaned one after you get inside?
Will we still be running to the store at the threat of a TP shortage (well, probably as some things WONT change!!)
Certainly restaurants wont be offering free delivery or drive through only after the shut down/ stay home orders happen.
Quote from: clean on March 29, 2020, 10:48:44 AM
Certainly restaurants wont be offering free delivery or drive through only after the shut down/ stay home orders happen.
But delivery service will probably be used significantly more than it was before for quite a while.
A few things I genuinely hope are outcomes:
1) Internet access will be regarded as a necessary utility like electricity, and the federal government will enact legislation to provide access to all.
2) There will be a resurgence in interest in classes like home economics and shop that have been all but forgotten to date.
3) There will be a general reconsideration of what we teach, especially at the high school level. Schooling may be more streamlined and practically oriented.
4) Increased respect for public health and things that are a community good.
5) Improvement of the voting system to at least all vote by mail.
That's my optimistic list. The pessimistic list starts with Trump being reelected and gets worse from there, so we won't dwell on that right now.
It will take some time for the travel industry to recover and tourism to pick up stateside and abroad.
In some ways (especially the lag in the economic capacity for discretionary expenses like travel), yes, but I wonder if that will be countered by people with pent-up urges to get away and/or "see the sights" who had to give up a cherished visit or much-anticipated dream trip?
Also, on whether travel agents, transportation purveyors, and guides offer transitional enticements to jump-start things once travel becomes possible again.
I'm trying to figure out whether to try to create socially-distanced summer tours using the kinds of transponders used in group museum tours, or mount videos or slides with voice-overs for my usual offerings in July and August.
I've been approached in the past about recording my tours for companies that distribute them, and pooh-poohed the idea at the time as hokey and a poor substitute for face-to-face encounters.
But I'm re-thinking those responses, and may see about alternatives going forward.
M.
Quote from: mythbuster on March 29, 2020, 11:32:18 AM
A few things I genuinely hope are outcomes:
4) Increased respect for public health and things that are a community good.
I predict that respect comes with higher education kicking and screaming, being the last ones on board. Anti labor scheming such as 'part time' hiring being their specialty.
Quote from: mahagonny on March 29, 2020, 08:58:28 AM
It will be OK to say having public 'wet markets' where you bring livestock in, slaughter them on sight or sell them live, with unsanitary conditions and risks, is a bad idea, without being called racist.
That's a racist prediction.
Quote from: mamselle on March 29, 2020, 12:05:14 PM
I've been approached in the past about recording my tours for companies that distribute them, and pooh-poohed the idea at the time as hokey and a poor substitute for face-to-face encounters.
But I'm re-thinking those responses, and may see about alternatives going forward.
M.
This is like the reality about online education: The traditional argument
against has been that "It's not as good as face-to-face." Covid has spiked that argument by effectively saying "What do you do when face-to-face is
simply not an option?"
At the CC level, faculty who previously refused to employ technology in their classrooms and considered using the internet to be an inferior and unacceptable venue for teaching will no longer be viewed as curmudgeonly obstinate but will now be seen as plainly incompetent.
We will notice that most faculty were at least functional when moving to the internet, but college services were not. I see some serious training sessions for the student services and administrative sides, at least for my college.
For the second presidential election in a row, Democrats will refuse to acknowledge that somehow, against all possible odds, they figured out a way to nominate the only person in the country who couldn't beat Trump. This time they expect "on-the-fence" people to vote for Joe Biden? Really?
See the current conversation on the elections thread re: this.
M.
-The rally-round-the-leader effect guarantees Trump will win re-election.
-Globally, the shift of power, relative wealth, prestige and leadership from the West to the Far East will accelerate dramatically. Esp. prestige and leadership, since overall the Western management of the pandemic has been an abject failure compared to the Far East.
-The EU, as such, will emerge as one the biggest losers. I don't think Italians and Spaniards will soon forget how little help they've had from Brussels and from their neighbors.
Quote from: Stockmann on March 29, 2020, 04:37:58 PM
-The EU, as such, will emerge as one the biggest losers. I don't think Italians and Spaniards will soon forget how little help they've had from Brussels and from their neighbors.
I've also wondered about what this crisis has revealed about the "union" part of the term "EU."
I also wonder about "the whole China thing" and decades of outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing of vital goods because people want "cheap."
Well, it's fair to point out that Brexit was a stupid distraction at a time when distractions might better have been put aside, if anyone with foresight had considered that possibility.
But the yellow-tufted gooney bird on the island across La Manche from Bruxelles is, like his orange-tufted cousin, mostly only concerned about what gets him attention, power, and headlines.
M.
Quote from: Cheerful on March 29, 2020, 04:43:23 PM
Quote from: Stockmann on March 29, 2020, 04:37:58 PM
-The EU, as such, will emerge as one the biggest losers. I don't think Italians and Spaniards will soon forget how little help they've had from Brussels and from their neighbors.
I've also wondered about what this crisis has revealed about the "union" part of the term "EU."
Their motto should be "Sauve qui peut!" I think the EU will, ironically enough, evolve towards a more Thatcherite version - a free trade area, but things like a common foreign policy or cross-border coordination in anything other than trade standards and so on is fast becoming laughable. Macron at least seems to understand this, but not many others seem to.
QuoteI also wonder about "the whole China thing" and decades of outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing of vital goods because people want "cheap."
But the thing is, China isn't racing the West to the bottom. It's racing it to the top, and in terms of pandemic response it's already won. This "black swan" has revealed not just that the West was unprepared for a pandemic (apparently, the lesson the West drew from SARS, MERS, ebola, zika, swine flu is that these are things that happen to other people) but an astonishing degree of disarray in responding to a crisis - from Trump flip-flopping to EU inability to agree on anything much to confrontation between local and national governments in Switzerland and in the US to Sweden mastering the art of burying one's head in the sand.
This is happening just over a decade after another global crisis was caused by a failure in Western financial governance - young Asians (and not just Asians) who are just coming of age have grown up seeing the West fail while their own societies have got their act together.
Quote from: Caracal on March 29, 2020, 07:17:46 AM
Quote from: writingprof on March 29, 2020, 06:53:29 AM
As I have said elsewhere on these Fora, the moment Biden wins the election, we will never hear the words "coronavirus" or "covid" again.
Yes, I recall that and I recall thinking, "what a fool."
I think writingprof means that Trump is being inappropriately blamed or over-blamed by some. If so he would be right. That always happens to a president.
'Being president is like being a jackass in a hailstorm. There's nothing to do but stand there and take it.' - Lyndon Johnson, who changed his mind about running for a second term
Another Prediction:
STATE BUDGET CUTS
I expect that the drop in oil prices and the loss of sales tax revenues will mean that someone will soon start looking at the state and therefore the university budget. I suspect that pay raises may be postponed (if there were going to be any anyway).
Usually economic downturns are good for university enrollment (tuition revenue) but bad for sales tax and state support. However, I m not sure that online classes are going to benefit anyone in particular. It may help the places that already have an online presence OR the ones that can quickly put up an advertising program so that it LOOKS like they have a better program. Also, IF the recession is shortlived (good for everyone) the increase in enrollment may not come, but the sales tax drop will still hurt.
Anyway, I am not predicting State Budget Cuts across the country!
Hows this for timing!
I posted a prediction before lunch. This afternoon we get an email announcing a hiring freeze and 'requests for compensation changes should not be sent' notice!
These are to 'conserve resources as we navigate this unprecedented situation'!