Supposedly my employer is projecting a Fall 2020 to Spring 2021 total enrollment decline of ~ 2%. The situation is very nebulous because actual numbers are not regularly provided to faculty.
My community college classes filled in record time.
Our enrollment is up slightly (+ ~1%) over last year, and this is one of the top years ever historically. Go figure??? But of course we are still in terrible covid19 deficit trouble requiring sacrifices from everyone...
It's looking like the number of incoming transfer students for the spring semester will be half of normal.
Reportedly our returning students almost all returned, but the entering class is down about 20%. Meanwhile the local community college has increased enrollment. More than half of the community college's classes are in-person, whereas most of ours are online; but I think the real difference is that the CC is so much cheaper.
Spring enrollment for my college (Arts and Sciences) is down 2.5%
In my department, mine are the only completely full classes (with overflowing waitlists). My colleagues' intro-level courses are mostly close to full, but their 200+ -level courses are only about half-full right now.
It's mostly expected, given the student demographics, although the clustering in my courses is not. I seem to be sucking up most of the international students, so that my classes are 90%+ international, while my colleagues' classes are only ~40% international. Maybe my classes are easier than my colleagues'? Shrug.
Overall enrollment is down something like 1.3%, but the cohort demographics have mostly insulated our department from the decline.
We're expecting 1/3 to 1/2 of the usual January starts, and most of those aren't transfers but are deferrals from the fall.
No one is quite sure what the returning percentage will be, but our department reduced offerings by 25% and that seems to have been about right. Of course, distancing rules have capped many of our classes lower than they would normally be, so without those we would far more open seats and higher course caps.