Coronavirus

[spork]

U.S. church services are super-spreader environments:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html.

[nebo113]

SPADFY?   I googled but can't find the meaning.

[OneMoreYear]

SPADFY?   I googled but can't find the meaning.

Some people are different from you

[apl68]

U.S. church services are super-spreader environments:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html.

The headline notes "more than 650 cases have been linked to reopened religious facilities."  That's a few hundred out of how many tens of thousands of new cases nationwide during the same period?  These occasional outbreaks are a tragedy for the churches involved, but they're only a drop in the bucket compared to the spread at bars, beaches, and parties.  Or at essential businesses like food processing plants.

At the churches that I'm familiar with--and I'm familiar with quite a few from various sources--there has been general compliance with social distancing and mask guidelines.  I see greater compliance with mask guidelines in local churches than I do in stores.  From what I've seen, churchgoers are by and larger taking this virus business more seriously than the general population, not less.

[Caracal]

[ they're only a drop in the bucket compared to the spread at bars, beaches, and parties.

Not beaches. Beaches aren't particularly dangerous places. They are outside. We should be encouraging people to go to beaches.

[Caracal]

The biology teachers I know tell me that if they do find a vaccine then we will have to get it every year since we can't get lifelong immunity against an RNA virus.

My understanding is that it is a bit more complicated than that and there are more unknowns. From what I understand from reading virologists, there are different kinds of antibodies and they work in different ways. People can have substantial protection against viruses without being immune to them. You might still be able to get infected, but you could be protected against serious illness. Flu mutates in particular ways that Covid viruses don't.

Part of the advantage of having all of these different vaccine candidates is that even successful vaccines might really vary in what they do and the kind of protection they offer. Apparently, it is possible, for example, that some vaccines could prevent people from getting very sick, but not prevent them from getting and transmitting the virus.

[FishProf]

Maybe I'm being pedantic, but the correct phrasing isn't "Coronavirus doesn't do that", it's "Coronavirus isn't know to do that".

[Insert Donald Rumsfeld meme about unknown unknowns].

See, for example, CDC and WHO today admitting "evidence" of Aerosol spread.

[Caracal]

Maybe I'm being pedantic, but the correct phrasing isn't "Coronavirus doesn't do that", it's "Coronavirus isn't know to do that".

[Insert Donald Rumsfeld meme about unknown unknowns].

See, for example, CDC and WHO today admitting "evidence" of Aerosol spread.

Sure, although from what I've read the aerosol thing is sort of a technical and terminology debate and doesn't really change much in terms of the actual guidance. Spending lots of time in crowded indoor spaces is dangerous.

[FishProf]

Maybe I'm being pedantic, but the correct phrasing isn't "Coronavirus doesn't do that", it's "Coronavirus isn't know to do that".

[Insert Donald Rumsfeld meme about unknown unknowns].

See, for example, CDC and WHO today admitting "evidence" of Aerosol spread.

Sure, although from what I've read the aerosol thing is sort of a technical and terminology debate and doesn't really change much in terms of the actual guidance. Spending lots of time in crowded indoor spaces is dangerous.

It would very much matter in a building with HVAC and common air circulation.  It's the difference between being in the same room as an infected person being a risk, and being in the same building being a risk.

[Caracal]

Maybe I'm being pedantic, but the correct phrasing isn't "Coronavirus doesn't do that", it's "Coronavirus isn't know to do that".

[Insert Donald Rumsfeld meme about unknown unknowns].

See, for example, CDC and WHO today admitting "evidence" of Aerosol spread.

Sure, although from what I've read the aerosol thing is sort of a technical and terminology debate and doesn't really change much in terms of the actual guidance. Spending lots of time in crowded indoor spaces is dangerous.

It would very much matter in a building with HVAC and common air circulation.  It's the difference between being in the same room as an infected person being a risk, and being in the same building being a risk.

Right, but it isn't really a risk. This is a good explanation.
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1279578191745683457

[FishProf]

Right, but it isn't really a risk. This is a good explanation.
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1279578191745683457

It was?  I read a lot of criticism about different approaches.   Maybe I missed it. What did you think was a particularly clear statement of what an aerosol is and how Covid is or isn't that?

[Caracal]

Right, but it isn't really a risk. This is a good explanation.
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1279578191745683457

It was?  I read a lot of criticism about different approaches.   Maybe I missed it. What did you think was a particularly clear statement of what an aerosol is and how Covid is or isn't that?

That's the point. People hear aerosol and think that you need to worry about spread through HVAC systems. That isn't true, it can't  travel long distances on air columns before getting too diluted.

"Most transmission is close range close contact. A mountain of evidence

We can limit transmission by limiting contacts (distancing), and the risk of transmission given a contact (masks probably help), and avoid superspreading events by not giving the virus the chance."

Basically, in crowded spaces, it seems possible that the virus can build up in the air and infect people. That reinforces the guidance about avoiding crowded indoor spaces. It doesn't change the basic routes of transmission. You're not going to get the virus sitting in your office through the vent.

[apl68]

I'd distinguish between nonsense scares such as vaccines causing autism and the well documented failures of American medicine that have been investigated by scholars.

Here's my question, then:

Are there any cases on record of new vaccines that have proven dangerous due to being rushed out too quickly?  Is there a precedent for this being a problem?

[downer]

I'd distinguish between nonsense scares such as vaccines causing autism and the well documented failures of American medicine that have been investigated by scholars.

Here's my question, then:

Are there any cases on record of new vaccines that have proven dangerous due to being rushed out too quickly?  Is there a precedent for this being a problem?

Good question. There haven't been major issues with vaccines. Many that were recalled due to safety concerns turned out to be safe. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html

So there's not a lot of reason to be scared of vaccines per se. Of course, the ones used so far have been well tested.

From what I've seen, there are many different groups working independently and even competitively to discover a COVID vaccine. I will want to know a lot about whatever new vaccine they come up with and how similar it is to previous ones.

[FishProf]

Right, but it isn't really a risk. This is a good explanation.
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1279578191745683457

It was?  I read a lot of criticism about different approaches.   Maybe I missed it. What did you think was a particularly clear statement of what an aerosol is and how Covid is or isn't that?

That's the point. People hear aerosol and think that you need to worry about spread through HVAC systems. That isn't true, it can't  travel long distances on air columns before getting too diluted.

"Most transmission is close range close contact. A mountain of evidence

We can limit transmission by limiting contacts (distancing), and the risk of transmission given a contact (masks probably help), and avoid superspreading events by not giving the virus the chance."

Basically, in crowded spaces, it seems possible that the virus can build up in the air and infect people. That reinforces the guidance about avoiding crowded indoor spaces. It doesn't change the basic routes of transmission. You're not going to get the virus sitting in your office through the vent.

I think we are making different points.  We (not you and I) went from "Surfaces are the thing to worry about" (apparently not so much) to "It's transmitted in droplets, so six feet is sufficient to separate", to "It's an aerosol, so it can hang in the air".   The message shouldn't be "It doesn't do this", it shoulb "we don;t know it to do that".

Also, when I read up on HVAC issues, I get HVAC experts saying "it won't go through the HVAC system, as it isn't an aerosol."  So, when I read that it IS, that makes me question the assurance we just received.