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Coronavirus

Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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marshwiggle

One thing about all of this that is vastly different from a "weather event" is the time scale. We have the occasional snow day here; a big storm may last for a day or two, and cleanup may take a day or two. Usually we only miss a day, but a week would be ridiculously long. However, a viral outbreak is going to last weeks if not months. Rather than missing a day or maybe a week of classes, it may lead to losing an entire term. That sort of thing has occasionally happened for strikes, but even then there's a clear date when it's over. In this case, arbitrary decisions will have to be made, and they won't necessarily be the same for neighbouring institutions or communities.
It takes so little to be above average.

Caracal

There's a larger social aspect of this to consider, as well. Based on the available evidence, there's no reason to think that Coronavirus is widely circulating throughout the US. The people who seem trustworthy think that if it was it would be getting picked up in flu surveillance data as a surge of hospitalizations. So, what seems to be occurring, is small outbreaks, certainly in Washington and probably in one or two places in California. Is the virus circulating in some other places without anybody knowing about it? Probably. Is it circulating in your area, and are you at all likely to get it on your campus? Probably not. In fact, there's a very good chance that getting coronavirus is pretty far down on the lists of risks you are running in going to campus. Probably below auto accident. I understand that some people are in high risk groups, but even in that case, the flu, which is definitely circulating on your campus, is probably a much greater risk.

All of this might change. We might have widespread transmission in a lot of places and all kinds of things might need to change. But, the problem is we can't do that forever. What that means is that drastic measures need to be pretty carefully calibrated. Shutting down schools and asking most people to stay home is something you would do if you thought you had a dramatically expanding epidemic in the area and needed to slow it down to avoid hospitals being overrun and really sick people not being able to get treatment. You couldn't do it for too long. That also means it won't help if individuals start making weird decisions now. All it is going to do is erode people's ability to do the things they need to do later. We can't all be in crisis mode forever.

Like it or not, students think of professors as authority figures. If their professor emails them and tells them that the class at San Diego College has been moved online because of Coronavirus, they are going to think this means there's a real threat and will be confused since the University is saying that there are no changes since the threat, at the moment, seems low. Is that going to improve their confidence in future notifications from the University or other authorities? There's a social responsibility at the moment to make sure you aren't letting your fears about a novel threat cause you to do things that aren't rational.

Hegemony

What Caracal says may be true. However, my particular university is located in one of the places that's having a demonstrated outbreak.

I also personally think it's likely that the virus is circulating widely in ways that are not being monitored. You all may be interested in the experience of "Sketchy Woman" on Twitter.  She posted:

"I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis. Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went.

"I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up. So I looked at the CDC and Washington public health websites.  They told me to see a primary care doctor, but there's no information about testing.

"I called 2 primary care doctors. One told me they don't know where to get testing, and that I should not to seek out testing. The other one told me to go to an urgent care or ER. I called the Urgent Care, they also had no idea where tests are, but told me to call the hospital.

"I called the hospital. They do not have tests, but transferred me to the COVID-19 hotline to "answer my questions". Since I was transferred on a medical provider line, I actually got through. Progress!

"The lady with the hotline was very kind and professional and understood my concern about my own health and those at my clinic. (Which is currently being sanitized). However, I was told I do not qualify for testing. And I was not given a timeline or info on current resources.

"So. Who does qualify? Those who have been out of the country in the last 14 days, and those who have had contact with one of the few people who have been tested and come up positive. That's it.

"The only way I can get treated is if my symptoms get so bad I develop pneumonia or bronchitis, which is very likely in my case. Then I'll be in the ER and quarantined for several days while waiting for a test and for the results to come back.

"This is all incredibly frustrating because I am trying to do everything right in a system that punishes moments of "weakness" like taking days off. It's also scary to know that I won't be able to get help until I need life support."

People have been chiming in with similar stories. For instance: "I'm a medical provider in a psych ward near Seattle. I tried to transfer a sick pt to the ER to be checked for corona. He said he had relatives who'd been to Asia recently. Well, it was like WW3 to get pt transferred & they didn't check him for corona. Just sent him back to us."

And people have reported that the CDC site on infection rate is not being updated. Entire thread here: https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840

In short, we don't know how fast the virus is spreading, and we are not gathering the information in any systematic way. It may well be that we are in for months of this — maybe two years of this. I know some people say, "Screw it, for 80% of us it will be a minor virus, let's go about business as usual." For the 20% who may need intensive care, or ventilators, or who may die, I think it's understandable if they feel less sanguine. I'm on the side of not killing my faculty and students, even only 2% of them.

marshwiggle

Quote from: Hegemony on March 03, 2020, 06:33:29 AM

People have been chiming in with similar stories. For instance: "I'm a medical provider in a psych ward near Seattle. I tried to transfer a sick pt to the ER to be checked for corona. He said he had relatives who'd been to Asia recently. Well, it was like WW3 to get pt transferred & they didn't check him for corona. Just sent him back to us."


Frustrating as this is, I'm guessing it's at least partly due to the availability of test kits. There are probably barely enough for people who have probably been in contact with the virus, and until production and distribution are ramped up a lot that's the way it will stay.
It takes so little to be above average.

Kron3007

I think the idea that the minimal steps we are taking would have any chance of stopping an infectious disease like this from coming and spreading is crazy.  China clamped down pretty hard, doing much more than I could see the US or most Western countries attempting, and it has still spread within and outside of China.  Now with it spreading in other countries outside of China, it seems inevitable that it will come and start spreading within North America.  We simply live in a world that makes stopping something like this nearly impossible. 

Parasaurolophus

I was travelling last weekend, and it was amusing/a little sad to see how many people in all the airports were wearing various kinds of face mask (including some pretty heavy-duty painting masks).
`
There's no way they were all sick, which means they mistakenly think wearing a face mask will protect them.
I know it's a genus.

Caracal

Quote from: Hegemony on March 03, 2020, 06:33:29 AM
What Caracal says may be true. However, my particular university is located in one of the places that's having a demonstrated outbreak.

I also personally think it's likely that the virus is circulating widely in ways that are not being monitored. You all may be interested in the experience of "Sketchy Woman" on Twitter.  She posted:

"I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis. Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went.

"I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up. So I looked at the CDC and Washington public health websites.  They told me to see a primary care doctor, but there's no information about testing.

"I called 2 primary care doctors. One told me they don't know where to get testing, and that I should not to seek out testing. The other one told me to go to an urgent care or ER. I called the Urgent Care, they also had no idea where tests are, but told me to call the hospital.

"I called the hospital. They do not have tests, but transferred me to the COVID-19 hotline to "answer my questions". Since I was transferred on a medical provider line, I actually got through. Progress!

"The lady with the hotline was very kind and professional and understood my concern about my own health and those at my clinic. (Which is currently being sanitized). However, I was told I do not qualify for testing. And I was not given a timeline or info on current resources.

"So. Who does qualify? Those who have been out of the country in the last 14 days, and those who have had contact with one of the few people who have been tested and come up positive. That's it.

"The only way I can get treated is if my symptoms get so bad I develop pneumonia or bronchitis, which is very likely in my case. Then I'll be in the ER and quarantined for several days while waiting for a test and for the results to come back.

"This is all incredibly frustrating because I am trying to do everything right in a system that punishes moments of "weakness" like taking days off. It's also scary to know that I won't be able to get help until I need life support."

People have been chiming in with similar stories. For instance: "I'm a medical provider in a psych ward near Seattle. I tried to transfer a sick pt to the ER to be checked for corona. He said he had relatives who'd been to Asia recently. Well, it was like WW3 to get pt transferred & they didn't check him for corona. Just sent him back to us."

And people have reported that the CDC site on infection rate is not being updated. Entire thread here: https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840

In short, we don't know how fast the virus is spreading, and we are not gathering the information in any systematic way. It may well be that we are in for months of this — maybe two years of this. I know some people say, "Screw it, for 80% of us it will be a minor virus, let's go about business as usual." For the 20% who may need intensive care, or ventilators, or who may die, I think it's understandable if they feel less sanguine. I'm on the side of not killing my faculty and students, even only 2% of them.

To be clear, I don't think we should ignore things. Also, as I said, since you are in an area that has an outbreak, different considerations might be at play especially if you are in a high risk group. I wouldn't think someone in those circumstances who didn't feel comfortable teaching classes was being irresponsible.

That said, I think we all need to be careful about these anecdotal stories going around Twitter. I have no idea who "Sketchy Woman" is. She could be a Russian Bot, a troll who likes scaring people by making up frightening stories, or someone with mental illness. Maybe she's a hypochondriac, like me. She could also be someone who is just freaked out in a way that is causing her to mischaracterize the situation. "All the symptoms of Covid-19" sounds scary but probably just mean she has a cough and a fever. The estimates are that perhaps 1500 people in Washington might have acquired this so far. 3.5 million people live in the greater Seattle area, so I'm going to guess there are a lot more people right now who have the flu or a mild cold. Eventually they are going to need to get testing up so they can actually figure out the scale of the problem, and it sounds like they will be there by the end of the week. But basically, people who are sick should stay home and limit contact with others. That's sort of it. She also reports guidelines on testing that are not correct now, that could be alarming if that is what she is being told, but again, this is just some person on twitter and you want to be careful.

Caracal

Quote from: Kron3007 on March 03, 2020, 07:03:43 AM
I think the idea that the minimal steps we are taking would have any chance of stopping an infectious disease like this from coming and spreading is crazy.  China clamped down pretty hard, doing much more than I could see the US or most Western countries attempting, and it has still spread within and outside of China.  Now with it spreading in other countries outside of China, it seems inevitable that it will come and start spreading within North America.  We simply live in a world that makes stopping something like this nearly impossible.

Well, what China did actually does seem to have worked in terms of dramatically slowing down spread within China for the moment. It isn't clear how much of it we could do or we would even want to if we could.

Hegemony

Just reporting in that my university has officially announced that we are invoking the crisis plan, and that people are encouraged to transfer their classes online or otherwise adapt to the unfolding situation.

As for "Sketchy Woman," sure, she could be a bot, as could the many other people reporting chaos and confusion over how to get tested. The people being interviewed on TV about it could be lying as well. The pundits commenting on the difficulties could be operating on false information. It could all be minor and under control. If that's true, no worries. If at least some of those people are sincere and correct about their experiences, it suggests to me that erring on the side of caution has a potentially great up side, and little down side.

Caracal

Quote from: Hegemony on March 03, 2020, 09:13:03 AM
Just reporting in that my university has officially announced that we are invoking the crisis plan, and that people are encouraged to transfer their classes online or otherwise adapt to the unfolding situation.

As for "Sketchy Woman," sure, she could be a bot, as could the many other people reporting chaos and confusion over how to get tested. The people being interviewed on TV about it could be lying as well. The pundits commenting on the difficulties could be operating on false information. It could all be minor and under control. If that's true, no worries. If at least some of those people are sincere and correct about their experiences, it suggests to me that erring on the side of caution has a potentially great up side, and little down side.

I'm glad to hear about your school. That sounds like the appropriate course of action at the moment given the local situation.

As for the rest, I think it is important to find the balance between everything is "minor and under control" and full on panic. There's a temptation when you lack complete information to fill in the blanks with whatever random information you can find, but that is going to result in a ton of misinformation which won't help.

Morris Zapp

My dad has lung cancer and is taking no precautions though they live in an outbreak area because Fox News is telling him it will be fine. He believes there is no real danger, just hype.

clean

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct


this article explains how to calculate the mortality rate for an ongoing illness.
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

reener06

Yes, Sketchy woman could be a bot. So could I, I suppose.

My sister went to China and returned Jan. 22. She had COVID-19 symptoms within a day of returning. After 3 days (where she went to work, at a hospital, and went to the store, etc.) she went to her doctor. She was put into an isolated room, but the doctor wouldn't test her, thought she probably didn't have it. Told her to stay home for a few days--but she didn't, not fully, because she went to get my 89 year old father the next week.

There were probably 300 people in the flight with her.

So, yeah, I feel safe.

I'm high risk, so I'm hanging out at home. Also on sabbatical, so I can do that. Not looking forward to where this goes.

Hegemony

Reener, did your father come down with anything?  (I hope not!)  Can you tell us what region of the country she lives in?

Caracal

Quote from: reener06 on March 03, 2020, 04:24:13 PM
Yes, Sketchy woman could be a bot. So could I, I suppose.

My sister went to China and returned Jan. 22. She had COVID-19 symptoms within a day of returning. After 3 days (where she went to work, at a hospital, and went to the store, etc.) she went to her doctor. She was put into an isolated room, but the doctor wouldn't test her, thought she probably didn't have it. Told her to stay home for a few days--but she didn't, not fully, because she went to get my 89 year old father the next week.

There were probably 300 people in the flight with her.

So, yeah, I feel safe.

I'm high risk, so I'm hanging out at home. Also on sabbatical, so I can do that. Not looking forward to where this goes.

To be clear, I wasn't actually saying the person was a bot, she doesn't seem to be. I was just pointing out that random twitter accounts aren't a particularly good source of information during a crisis. I think in a weird way we tend to trust them more than unverified things you hear from people you know, or people relaying secondhand information. And again, I really think the point about the tendency to fill in information is key. Obviously, I believe your account Reener, but chances are your sister didn't have Coronavirus. There actually weren't all that many cases outside of Hubei, so any individual person who had a cough and a fever and was in China, probably just had a bad cold or the flu. Heck, maybe her doctor had very good reasons to believe that to be the case based on symptoms.

The broader problem here, of course, is that obviously this has been messed up. There's reason to doubt there was really a great chance to contain this, but the people in charge clearly messed it up and haven't been testing enough people. If you don't think you are getting the best information you can quickly move to filling in blanks. The issue is that everyone jumps from that to absolute worst case scenario at this exact moment and that probably isn't real helpful.