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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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pigou

Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
As I sneeze out of control because of tree pollen, and blow my nose, etc, I'm getting the "stink-eye" from some folks...
Better than what happened to my Chinese friend today: someone yelled "get out of the way, Corona" to her on public transit. Racists being racist, example #infinity.

magnemite

Quote from: pigou on March 05, 2020, 10:49:27 AM
Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
As I sneeze out of control because of tree pollen, and blow my nose, etc, I'm getting the "stink-eye" from some folks...
Better than what happened to my Chinese friend today: someone yelled "get out of the way, Corona" to her on public transit. Racists being racist, example #infinity.

Yes, and I am sorry but not shocked to hear that. As I was posting, it had occurred to me that the ability to sneeze in public w/o being tarred and feathered is a manifestation of white privilege in this situation.
may you ride eternal, shiny and chrome

pigou

Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:55:19 AM
Quote from: pigou on March 05, 2020, 10:49:27 AM
Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
As I sneeze out of control because of tree pollen, and blow my nose, etc, I'm getting the "stink-eye" from some folks...
Better than what happened to my Chinese friend today: someone yelled "get out of the way, Corona" to her on public transit. Racists being racist, example #infinity.

Yes, and I am sorry but not shocked to hear that. As I was posting, it had occurred to me that the ability to sneeze in public w/o being tarred and feathered is a manifestation of white privilege in this situation.

Sorry, this came across as critical of your post -- and it was definitely not meant to be!

It was just meant to provide an additional anecdote of how fear of disease is bringing out the worst in people.

magnemite

Quote from: pigou on March 05, 2020, 10:59:33 AM
Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:55:19 AM
Quote from: pigou on March 05, 2020, 10:49:27 AM
Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
As I sneeze out of control because of tree pollen, and blow my nose, etc, I'm getting the "stink-eye" from some folks...
Better than what happened to my Chinese friend today: someone yelled "get out of the way, Corona" to her on public transit. Racists being racist, example #infinity.

Yes, and I am sorry but not shocked to hear that. As I was posting, it had occurred to me that the ability to sneeze in public w/o being tarred and feathered is a manifestation of white privilege in this situation.

Sorry, this came across as critical of your post -- and it was definitely not meant to be!

It was just meant to provide an additional anecdote of how fear of disease is bringing out the worst in people.

Do not be sorry- I did not take that as criticism- I was just pointing out that I too was recognizing some of the racist manifestations of reactions.

Also, it's not easy to not touch your face, especially when having allergies...
may you ride eternal, shiny and chrome

apl68

Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
As I sneeze out of control because of tree pollen, and blow my nose, etc, I'm getting the "stink-eye" from some folks...

One good thing about living in "flyover country" is that you're still assumed when you cough to have simple cold, sinus, etc.  People around here are still figuring that the hoofbeats they hear are from horses, not zebras with Covid-19.

Although in my case a persistent minor sinus drainage cough has people at work starting to wondering whether that lung I punctured last summer is broken again.  I know now what a busted lung feels like, and this isn't it!
All we like sheep have gone astray
We have each turned to his own way
And the Lord has laid upon him the guilt of us all

spork

Quote from: marshwiggle on March 05, 2020, 06:16:32 AM
Quote from: spork on March 05, 2020, 06:11:09 AM

Generally, to minimize spread of head colds and influenza, anyone with symptoms should not be at work or school -- especially if one of those symptoms is fever, or if leaving the house means close contact with vulnerable populations (elderly, immune suppressed, etc.). We all know that is usually far from common practice. But it is effective when people do isolate themselves.

There are K-12 schools in the USA and other countries that are simply shutting down for an indefinite period because of possible contact between pupils or employees and people who possibly have Covid-19. It's a smart attempt at preemption.

But it's totally unsustainable in the long term. Unless there's a current spike in cases in a particular area, how are they going to make the decision to re-open? If there are no current cases, what's the metric they are using to evaluate the risks? And how long until the next similarly dangerous factor is on the horizon?

You might want to pose this question to the Iowa Board of Regents, which cancelled all university-sponsored international travel for at least the next 30 days.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

magnemite

Quote from: spork on March 05, 2020, 02:13:38 PM
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 05, 2020, 06:16:32 AM
Quote from: spork on March 05, 2020, 06:11:09 AM

Generally, to minimize spread of head colds and influenza, anyone with symptoms should not be at work or school -- especially if one of those symptoms is fever, or if leaving the house means close contact with vulnerable populations (elderly, immune suppressed, etc.). We all know that is usually far from common practice. But it is effective when people do isolate themselves.

There are K-12 schools in the USA and other countries that are simply shutting down for an indefinite period because of possible contact between pupils or employees and people who possibly have Covid-19. It's a smart attempt at preemption.

But it's totally unsustainable in the long term. Unless there's a current spike in cases in a particular area, how are they going to make the decision to re-open? If there are no current cases, what's the metric they are using to evaluate the risks? And how long until the next similarly dangerous factor is on the horizon?

You might want to pose this question to the Iowa Board of Regents, which cancelled all university-sponsored international travel for at least the next 30 days.

the impacts on folks doing research in foreign lands will be fun to sort out. What do they think will change after 30 days?
may you ride eternal, shiny and chrome

Hegemony

I think, as pundits and the WHO are saying, the situation is simply unprecedented. Will a successful treatment or a vaccine be developed quickly, before people get tired of being so cautious? Will we simply accept that the virus will race through the population and kill 3.4% (latest WHO figures) of us? Will at-risk people hunker down while everyone else relaxes and goes about their normal business?  We simply don't have a blueprint for it because the last time this happened — an easily-transmitted disease with enough power to kill people but not enough to keep sufferers from travelling widely and spreading it — the last time this happened, in 1918, the world was less interconnected, and despite that it was a disaster. What level of caution is optimum, and for how long?  We have no useful precedents.  At what point do you say, "I'm sick of not travelling, I'm going to resume business as usual, and if my elderly parents catch it from me, oh well"?  Or do you say, "I'm sick of not travelling, but it's been two years and I'm feeling really restless, so despite the fact that I'm immune-compromised, I'm going to throw caution to the winds"?  We'll see.

pigou

Quote from: Hegemony on March 05, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
I think, as pundits and the WHO are saying, the situation is simply unprecedented. Will a successful treatment or a vaccine be developed quickly, before people get tired of being so cautious?
I think WHO's messaging here is really counter-productive. Yeah, it's "unprecedented" -- but qualitatively, it's not all that different from the swine flu, the bird flu, or SARS. There are differences in transmission rates, variability of symptoms, etc, but it's not like people didn't freak out just as much about these other things.

QuoteWe simply don't have a blueprint for it because the last time this happened — an easily-transmitted disease with enough power to kill people but not enough to keep sufferers from travelling widely and spreading it — the last time this happened, in 1918, the world was less interconnected, and despite that it was a disaster.
That was also a time when washing your hands just wasn't the norm, not even in hospitals. That didn't become a widespread thing until the 1980s -- and even now, hand hygiene in hospitals often leaves something to be desired. There are numerous clinical trials trying to improve adherence... and that's among the people who (1) should really know better, and (2) where transmitting infections to patients has a much higher chance of leading to death.

Caracal

Quote from: Hegemony on March 05, 2020, 03:11:44 PM
I think, as pundits and the WHO are saying, the situation is simply unprecedented. Will a successful treatment or a vaccine be developed quickly, before people get tired of being so cautious? Will we simply accept that the virus will race through the population and kill 3.4% (latest WHO figures) of us? Will at-risk people hunker down while everyone else relaxes and goes about their normal business?  We simply don't have a blueprint for it because the last time this happened — an easily-transmitted disease with enough power to kill people but not enough to keep sufferers from travelling widely and spreading it — the last time this happened, in 1918, the world was less interconnected, and despite that it was a disaster. What level of caution is optimum, and for how long?  We have no useful precedents.  At what point do you say, "I'm sick of not travelling, I'm going to resume business as usual, and if my elderly parents catch it from me, oh well"?  Or do you say, "I'm sick of not travelling, but it's been two years and I'm feeling really restless, so despite the fact that I'm immune-compromised, I'm going to throw caution to the winds"?  We'll see.

Well, it isn't going to be Spanish Flu level bad. The WHO isn't really an estimate of the actual mortality, its just a simple division of deaths by diagnosed cases. That's all it is supposed to be. It doesn't account on the numerator for people who haven't died yet but will, and on the denominator it doesn't count all the people who have mild or asymptomatic cases. In Korea, for example where they have been testing really extensively, right now the rate is like. .6%. Doesn't seem like we are going to know this for a while.

As for the rest, well, who knows. But, this article lays out possibilities. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/02/how-is-coronavirus-outbreak-going-end-heres-how-similar-epidemics-played-out/ Basically, it doesn't seem like this is going to be a multi year type thing.

Hegemony

Well, the Spanish flu death rate appears to have been around 2.5%. Maybe our current estimate of 3.4% is overblown — it's too early to tell. But we travel a lot more now, and there are more of us. So I don't think it's impossible that the situation could be similar. The U.S. hospital system isn't well set up for significant numbers of people needing intensive care or ventilator support at the same time, so that's another drawback — if the system is overwhelmed, some people who might be saved won't be. But really it doesn't matter whether the optimists are right or the pessimists are right, because time will tell.

spork

MIT has suspended all official international travel. "This includes any travel associated with one's scholarly activities as an MIT employee, even travel funded by a government grant, foundation, company or other university."

The decision was reached based on advice from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.

Quote from: magnemite on March 05, 2020, 02:39:40 PM
Quote from: spork on March 05, 2020, 02:13:38 PM
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 05, 2020, 06:16:32 AM
Quote from: spork on March 05, 2020, 06:11:09 AM

Generally, to minimize spread of head colds and influenza, anyone with symptoms should not be at work or school -- especially if one of those symptoms is fever, or if leaving the house means close contact with vulnerable populations (elderly, immune suppressed, etc.). We all know that is usually far from common practice. But it is effective when people do isolate themselves.

There are K-12 schools in the USA and other countries that are simply shutting down for an indefinite period because of possible contact between pupils or employees and people who possibly have Covid-19. It's a smart attempt at preemption.

But it's totally unsustainable in the long term. Unless there's a current spike in cases in a particular area, how are they going to make the decision to re-open? If there are no current cases, what's the metric they are using to evaluate the risks? And how long until the next similarly dangerous factor is on the horizon?

You might want to pose this question to the Iowa Board of Regents, which cancelled all university-sponsored international travel for at least the next 30 days.

the impacts on folks doing research in foreign lands will be fun to sort out. What do they think will change after 30 days?
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Hegemony

University of Washington has suspended in-person classes and exams for the rest of winter quarter, due to an infected person on campus:

https://komonews.com/news/local/uw-suspends-classes-finals-on-campus-starting-monday?fbclid=IwAR30Lw-mGRP6rPyQmlqKOhVNlfxNnu--XGWSIj6Ze46xOKnYWdrETT99CXY

"We plan to resume normal class operations when spring quarter begins March 30, pending public health guidance."

Note: "Husky athletics events will proceed as scheduled."

marshwiggle

Quote from: Hegemony on March 06, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
University of Washington has suspended in-person classes and exams for the rest of winter quarter, due to an infected person on campus:

https://komonews.com/news/local/uw-suspends-classes-finals-on-campus-starting-monday?fbclid=IwAR30Lw-mGRP6rPyQmlqKOhVNlfxNnu--XGWSIj6Ze46xOKnYWdrETT99CXY

"We plan to resume normal class operations when spring quarter begins March 30, pending public health guidance."

Note: "Husky athletics events will proceed as scheduled."

That must be because athletic events don't put people into the same crowded spaces with close physical contact that classes do and have no risk of bodily fluid transfer, etc.

It takes so little to be above average.

Wahoo Redux

Quote from: Hegemony on March 06, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
University of Washington has suspended in-person classes and exams for the rest of winter quarter, due to an infected person on campus:

https://komonews.com/news/local/uw-suspends-classes-finals-on-campus-starting-monday?fbclid=IwAR30Lw-mGRP6rPyQmlqKOhVNlfxNnu--XGWSIj6Ze46xOKnYWdrETT99CXY

"We plan to resume normal class operations when spring quarter begins March 30, pending public health guidance."

Note: "Husky athletics events will proceed as scheduled."

Well, we can't let something as minor as a pandemic impede the important stuff, now can we?
Come, fill the Cup, and in the fire of Spring
Your Winter-garment of Repentance fling:
The Bird of Time has but a little way
To flutter--and the Bird is on the Wing.