Coronavirus

[clean]

Quote from: Hegemony on Today at 10:40:50 AM
University of Washington has suspended in-person classes and exams for the rest of winter quarter, due to an infected person on campus:

https://komonews.com/news/local/uw-suspends-classes-finals-on-campus-starting-monday?fbclid=IwAR30Lw-mGRP6rPyQmlqKOhVNlfxNnu--XGWSIj6Ze46xOKnYWdrETT99CXY

"We plan to resume normal class operations when spring quarter begins March 30, pending public health guidance."

Note: "Husky athletics events will proceed as scheduled."

That must be because athletic events don't put people into the same crowded spaces with close physical contact that classes do and have no risk of bodily fluid transfer, etc.

2 things...
1.  Exams make students stressed and therefore susceptible to illness

2.  You can always retake a test/class, you can not retake a GAME (or party). 

[Hegemony]

Note: "Husky athletics events will proceed as scheduled."

That must be because athletic events don't put people into the same crowded spaces with close physical contact that classes do and have no risk of bodily fluid transfer, etc.

Well, except for the audience being in close physical contact with each other, and in much greater numbers than in a classroom.

[bio-nonymous]

Just got a notice the Experimental Biology Meeting was canceled this year (supposed to have been in San Diego April 4th-7th) because of the outbreak. This a huge meeting. IT makes me wonder what happens if the virus doesn't fizzle out over the next few months, my University is already asking us to reconsider ALL upcoming travel--and refusing to pay for travel to many areas with active outbreaks (makes sense that part!). The 3.6% death rate is 36 times higher than the flu--without a vaccine perhaps all the caution is more reasonable than I had first thought...

[Wahoo Redux]

L.A. Times has a pretty cogent discussion.

No vaccines, no medications
Humanity has been contending with seasonal flu for centuries, so scientists have had a long time to study the influenza strains that circulate in the winter months.

This research has led to the development of annual vaccines that protect large swaths of the population from getting the flu and reduce its severity in those who do become infected. In addition, there are medications available that can treat influenza symptoms and sometimes shorten the duration of the illness.

Also, when individuals come down with the flu, their bodies build up immunity. That means not everyone who is exposed to the flu virus gets sick.

But the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 has been in existence for only about three months, so there is no natural immunity in the population.

And unfortunately, there isn't a vaccine that can pick up the slack. Although several experimental vaccines are in the works, none will be ready to roll out for at least 18 months...

For public health officials, another cause for concern is the lack of information about how easily the coronavirus spreads.

Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. Among other things, it implies that an infected person can spread the virus to someone who is more than six feet away, "so that is also part of the rationale for keeping people at a distance from one another."

And researchers are still trying to determine how long the new virus can live on surfaces like handrails, doorknobs and elevator buttons that may be touched by hundreds or even thousands of people each day.

It isn't yet clear whether the coronavirus spreads as easily as the flu, but it has moved quickly. It has reached six continents in a matter of weeks with confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 89 countries and territories. Some of those patients became infected despite having no contact with anyone known to be exposed to the virus.

Higher fatality rate than seasonal flu

And here's another reason health officials are sounding the alarm: It appears that COVID-19 has a higher fatality rate than the flu.

Although four out of five cases of COVID-19 result in mild illness, the director-general of the World Health Organization said this week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 3.4%.

That would be higher than the mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish flu, which is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people worldwide over two years. Among those who were infected, the death rate was around 2.5%.

[ab_grp]

Our large national meeting is in April in San Francisco.  It has not been canceled yet, though I pretty much expect it to be.  My institution has already canceled all non-essential business travel for the foreseeable future, and we usually send a couple hundred researchers to that conference.  Maybe there will be more interest in and support for virtual meetings and conferences at my own institution and beyond. 

[Hegemony]

Our campus is in a flurry of preparation to move courses online, figure out other workarounds, and reduce the number of times large groups of people have to meet.  So to learn how to implement this, they have called a large meeting. We're all supposed to show up to this large meeting to learn how we should avoid large meetings. I think I will inaugurate my avoidance of large meetings by avoiding this one.

[pgher]

A major conference for which I serve on the steering committee is supposed to start a week from Sunday. That means at least some preparation will happen next Thursday. The more we talk about it, the less I think anyone will show up. Several major companies in our industry have issued a global travel ban for their employees; violators won't have their travel covered, and will have to self-quarantine for 14 days upon return. Whether or not that's a reasonable response, the actual conference attendees are not in a position to argue with their senior management.

So we're discussing going to a virtual conference. The thing is, we can't possibly set that up in time to match the existing schedule. It's a mess. A no-win situation.

[mamselle]

Sorry to hear of that. A mess, indeed.

Out of curiosity, though, can you say what steps you'd take, and in what order/time frame, to move a conference online?

That would be useful knowledge.

I can see how to move a class to a CMS-supported online format, but how would you do that with a conference?

I guess you could start by having everyone tape a reading/talk-through of their papers, but what then?

M.

[pgher]

Sorry to hear of that. A mess, indeed.

Out of curiosity, though, can you say what steps you'd take, and in what order/time frame, to move a conference online?

That would be useful knowledge.

I can see how to move a class to a CMS-supported online format, but how would you do that with a conference?

I guess you could start by having everyone tape a reading/talk-through of their papers, but what then?

M.

That's about all we've seriously discussed. The problem with that is, it doesn't capture all of the conference experience. Actually viewing the presentations is, for me, a small part of the reason I attend. I'll let you know what else is discussed if we go down that road.

[ab_grp]

Our national conference just canceled, as expected.  It sounds as though some parts may be conducted virtually, and others may be postponed until the fall.

[Caracal]

Although four out of five cases of COVID-19 result in mild illness, the director-general of the World Health Organization said this week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 3.4%.

That would be higher than the mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish flu, which is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people worldwide over two years. Among those who were infected, the death rate was around 2.5%.

[/quote]

This isn't to dispute the rest, but very crucial to understand that number. It is not an estimate of the mortality rate of either people who get it or people who show symptoms. It is just number of deaths divided by confirmed cases. Full stop.
Read this. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/06/why-its-so-hard-pin-down-risk-dying-coronavirus/

[Cheerful]

Anyone managing increasing anxiety over this?  I think I need to take some serious breaks from reading news.  There are constant updates and it's hard to put it all in proper context.  Distracting me from getting things done.

[pigou]

Anyone managing increasing anxiety over this?  I think I need to take some serious breaks from reading news.  There are constant updates and it's hard to put it all in proper context.  Distracting me from getting things done.

Don't follow the "breaking" news and anticipate that this epidemic will be active for at least a few more months. Epidemics are a marathon, not a sprint, even though it's being covered like the latter. I suspect we'll start seeing much less news coverage by the end of the month. Something else will have captured the news cycle by then. See also Avian flu, swine flu, Ebola... news coverage and panic unfold largely the same way.

[Cheerful]

Thanks very much, pigou, that helps.

Recent mass media articles on keeping calm during this time suggest some doable actions:  stay physically and mentally healthy, rely only on credible news sources, keep things in perspective (most people with the virus recover), and take breaks from following the news.

[dismalist]

Here's the effective behavior to lower the probability of getting infectd oneself, from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

Best of luck to all.