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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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Cheerful

Mass media say Wuhan, China reports just one new case for second consecutive day.

Can we trust this as being at least semi-valid data?

bacardiandlime

Here's hoping they've brought it under control.

Hibush

Quote from: Cheerful on March 18, 2020, 06:04:49 AM
Mass media say Wuhan, China reports just one new case for second consecutive day.

Can we trust this as being at least semi-valid data?

Given that the expectation is that ~80% will get the disease eventually and that Chinese media are not allowed to report bad news, I do not think this means that the problem is over in Wuhan. Nor does it mean that we should expect it to resolve in a few weeks.

Parasaurolophus

Quote from: Hibush on March 18, 2020, 05:26:12 PM
Quote from: Cheerful on March 18, 2020, 06:04:49 AM
Mass media say Wuhan, China reports just one new case for second consecutive day.

Can we trust this as being at least semi-valid data?

Given that the expectation is that ~80% will get the disease eventually and that Chinese media are not allowed to report bad news, I do not think this means that the problem is over in Wuhan. Nor does it mean that we should expect it to resolve in a few weeks.

And even if it's "over" for now, it won't take much to re-start it. Sounds to me like we're going to need on-off periods of social distancing every couple of months for, like, a couple years.
I know it's a genus.

clean

Speaking of China....
Have there been any sightings of the youtube 'journalists' that disappeared last month?

there was a news item that a Chinese Billionaire was critical of the government and disappeared too. Any word or sign of him lately?

Then there is the spat over Trump calling it 'the Chinese Virus", though the Chinese government ministers (at least one) was accusing the US military of sending it over (when there was some military athletic event in November).

"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

mahagonny

Quote from: clean on March 18, 2020, 08:37:31 PM
Speaking of China....
Have there been any sightings of the youtube 'journalists' that disappeared last month?

there was a news item that a Chinese Billionaire was critical of the government and disappeared too. Any word or sign of him lately?

Then there is the spat over Trump calling it 'the Chinese Virus", though the Chinese government ministers (at least one) was accusing the US military of sending it over (when there was some military athletic event in November).

Who's got cooties?

spork

Spoke to someone fairly high up in the state's public health hierarchy. He said mass testing in this area should come on line in about a week and then we will have a much better understanding of the extent of community transmission. In other words, the number of reported cases will skyrocket simply because more people will be getting tested.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

alto_stratus

Thanks for sharing that info, spork.

sprout

Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 18, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
And even if it's "over" for now, it won't take much to re-start it. Sounds to me like we're going to need on-off periods of social distancing every couple of months for, like, a couple years.

Someone at MIT Tech Review agrees with you:  We're not going back to normal

zyzzx

This site https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en has now added a link to testing info by state. For some states the numbers are really shocking - 50% or more tests are positive, with some even about 70% (New Jersey, Alabama, which do not have small numbers of confirmed cases). If 70% of the tests are positive, that means that they have truly no clue how many cases there could be. Not the slightest clue. That is not good. (assuming that these numbers are reliable)

Parasaurolophus

Quote from: sprout on March 19, 2020, 11:53:58 AM
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 18, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
And even if it's "over" for now, it won't take much to re-start it. Sounds to me like we're going to need on-off periods of social distancing every couple of months for, like, a couple years.

Someone at MIT Tech Review agrees with you:  We're not going back to normal

Oh goodie.

FWIW, I suppose I should say: guess I was totally wrong in my very first post on the subject. Probably should have taken it more seriously earlier on. I can admit it.
I know it's a genus.

Stockmann

Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 18, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
Quote from: Hibush on March 18, 2020, 05:26:12 PM

Given that the expectation is that ~80% will get the disease eventually and that Chinese media are not allowed to report bad news, I do not think this means that the problem is over in Wuhan. Nor does it mean that we should expect it to resolve in a few weeks.

And even if it's "over" for now, it won't take much to re-start it. Sounds to me like we're going to need on-off periods of social distancing every couple of months for, like, a couple years.

That's the worst case scenario, though of course it's possible. Hopefully in about a year there will be an effective vaccine and/or an effective treatment that will make it much more manageable.

spork

Quote from: Stockmann on March 19, 2020, 03:33:40 PM
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on March 18, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
Quote from: Hibush on March 18, 2020, 05:26:12 PM

Given that the expectation is that ~80% will get the disease eventually and that Chinese media are not allowed to report bad news, I do not think this means that the problem is over in Wuhan. Nor does it mean that we should expect it to resolve in a few weeks.

And even if it's "over" for now, it won't take much to re-start it. Sounds to me like we're going to need on-off periods of social distancing every couple of months for, like, a couple years.

That's the worst case scenario, though of course it's possible. Hopefully in about a year there will be an effective vaccine and/or an effective treatment that will make it much more manageable.

Also many of those least able to cope with infection will be killed off in the first wave. And after that there will be more herd immunity.

Assuming the virus doesn't mutate sufficiently, of course.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Stockmann

Mutations could go either way; new strains could be less deadly.

science.expat

Next time around however, most of us will have been exposed and will have developed antibodies. I don't think we're going to see repeated episodes of the current measures unless the virus mutates significantly.

The comparisons to 'Spanish flu' are important but we have to remember that modern medicine, even if stressed, if much better than what was available in 1918.

Don't panic, friends,

SE