Coronavirus

[Caracal]

Mutations could go either way; new strains could be less deadly.

It tends to go that way as I understand it because of natural selection. If mutations occur that result in lesser severity, that actually would make it easier to spread. A virus that results in people walking around sneezing and coughing on others is going to spread more rapidly than one that has those same people lying in bed at home. (or worse, sigh) But I don't think anyone has any real sense of the time scale.

[Cheerful]

With hair salons and barber shops closing, what will Americans look like when they emerge from isolation?

[writingprof]

With hair salons and barber shops closing, what will Americans look like when they emerge from isolation?

I'm reminded of the Michael Keaton Batman, in which a particular (but unknown) combination of cosmetics is poisonous.  Everybody looks like hell.  The nightly-newscast clips are particularly funny.

[mahagonny]

With hair salons and barber shops closing, what will Americans look like when they emerge from isolation?

Unfortunately, I'll look about the same.

[apl68]

With hair salons and barber shops closing, what will Americans look like when they emerge from isolation?

Funny you should ask!  My local hair-care provider was still open, and I got mine cut earlier today.  The biggest thing I was worried about catching was a chill getting through the rain to get there.

[Cheerful]

Debates about human and financial costs/benefits of statewide and nationwide shutdowns are underway.  These are not all partisan debates.

What do you think happens next in individual states and for U.S. national guidelines?

[writingprof]

Debates about human and financial costs/benefits of statewide and nationwide shutdowns are underway.  These are not all partisan debates.

What do you think happens next in individual states and for U.S. national guidelines?

Unless bodies are piling up in the streets or we're treated to news clips of U.S. hospitals looking like Mother Teresa's Calcutta, the majority will get sick of sheltering in place in about two weeks.  Because Trump's political instincts are often extraordinarily good, he is already realizing this and is clearly coming to the conclusion that "don't let the whiners keep you inside" is a winning message.

My guess is that the citizenry, businesses, and the President will want to get back to work before governors believe it's safe.  Thus, this will be settled where all American issues are settled: in court.

I look forward to the inevitable New York Times article about how the "legitimacy of the Court" is at stake if John Roberts doesn't side with the progressives and keep the economy shut down.  Needless to say, the moment Biden wins the election, you'll never hear the words "coronavirus" or "COVID" again.

[AmLitHist]

Just opened an email sent by my institution @ 11 last night:  a Clery notice that a student at my campus has been diagnosed as positive. 

Do they have to notify those the student was in contact with for a period of time prior to diagnosis?

ETA:  Good lord.  That sentence looks like something my students would write.  Sorry.  :-)

[mahagonny]

Debates about human and financial costs/benefits of statewide and nationwide shutdowns are underway.  These are not all partisan debates.

What do you think happens next in individual states and for U.S. national guidelines?

Unless bodies are piling up in the streets or we're treated to news clips of U.S. hospitals looking like Mother Teresa's Calcutta, the majority will get sick of sheltering in place in about two weeks.  Because Trump's political instincts are often extraordinarily good, he is already realizing this and is clearly coming to the conclusion that "don't let the whiners keep you inside" is a winning message.

Analogous to stopping your antidepressant medication because it's working and you conclude you don't have depression any more and so don't need treatment. I think you're right that Trump has good political instincts. But that's not necessarily good for anyone every time.

[Myword]

Hey, this is not the Black Plague or leprosy or a fate worse than death.

I've been practicing social distancing for years without trying.

[Stockmann]

An interesting analysis of geopolitical consequences:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52008453

A related, and IMO broader matter, is that the West has largely botched up its response compared to the Far East. I think a reasonable measure is the number of dead per million inhabitants, as it accounts both for success or failure in keeping contagion low and the success or failure of hospitals in keeping patients alive. By this measure, PR China and South Korea are tied with the US and Germany (and have much better numbers than Italy or Spain, or even than the UK) - but China's and S. Korea's numbers aren't changing much anymore. Japan and Singapore have much better numbers than the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Switzerland or Norway, and Taiwan (which had prepared extensively for a pandemic) has much better numbers than Japan and Singapore. All this even though North America and Europe had longer to prepare than Japan or Taiwan, let alone PR China. The regional/cultural factor seems to outweigh everything else, as the Far Eastern countries with good numbers include both democracies and dictatorships, and the Western countries doing badly include countries with very different politics and healthcare systems.
Numbers available here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Cheerful]

The regional/cultural factor seems to outweigh everything else, as the Far Eastern countries with good numbers include both democracies and dictatorships, and the Western countries doing badly include countries with very different politics and healthcare systems.

Thanks, Stockmann.  Many lessons to be learned.

Many U.S. politicians (D and R) have shifted to focusing on mortality rates and characterizing the virus as "most people don't die" and "it's an old people's problem."  They are ignoring that the virus can be a long, miserable thing for a person to endure, regardless of age, with long-term consequences to individual health unknown.

[apl68]

Sad to say, a noticeable spike in infections nationwide right about now would probably be a good thing in the U.S., to discourage complacency.  I have to admit that it's already overcome mine.

[Parasaurolophus]

It looks like infection rates haven't really increased much at all over here in a few days.

At least, in this province. My home province just--literally seconds ago--posted an increase of 400 infections. Looks like my hometowns are at the epicentre.

[Puget]

Sad to say, a noticeable spike in infections nationwide right about now would probably be a good thing in the U.S., to discourage complacency.  I have to admit that it's already overcome mine.

There will be a large spike in confirmed cases even if social distancing is working perfectly now, because of the incubation period between infection and symptoms, and also the increase in testing. Spike in hospitalizations also lags spikes in infection by about a week, so things are going to get very bad in the next few weeks even if new infections are (hopefully!) going down.