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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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bacardiandlime

Is anyone else freaked out by those logarithmic graphs that the FT keeps publishing and then get shared around?

writingprof

Quote from: nebo113 on April 02, 2020, 05:34:00 AM
Quote from: secundem_artem on April 01, 2020, 09:03:05 AM
Quote from: spork on April 01, 2020, 08:20:25 AM
Great U.S. data projections here:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

Agreed, but those 95% CI's are enormous.    I did not read what their underlying assumptions were but there's a lot of wiggle room in those numbers.  A few dozen more fundamentalist churches packing the pews for a couple more Sundays could blow these models to bits.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-31/louisiana-pastor-says-hell-keep-violating-coronavirus-ban

And reduce the numbers of Trump voters, while further crashing our fragile health care system.

We live in an ironic age, but Trump losing the election because his voters were literally too stupid to live would really be something.

marshwiggle

Quote from: writingprof on April 04, 2020, 07:10:21 AM

We live in an ironic age, but Trump losing the election because his voters were literally too stupid to live would really be something.

Now that you mention it, it's inevitable that some analysis is going to be done after the election to try and estimate the "covid effect" in close races.
It takes so little to be above average.

paultuttle

Quote from: marshwiggle on April 04, 2020, 07:14:51 AM
Quote from: writingprof on April 04, 2020, 07:10:21 AM

We live in an ironic age, but Trump losing the election because his voters were literally too stupid to live would really be something.

Now that you mention it, it's inevitable that some analysis is going to be done after the election to try and estimate the "covid effect" in close races.

The truly horrifying element for me is how completely expendable some Trumpists think the base is. What an extreme disregard for human life!

It's really Stalin-esque.

Anselm

Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 04, 2020, 05:15:55 AM
Is anyone else freaked out by those logarithmic graphs that the FT keeps publishing and then get shared around?

I have not seen the FT ones but the plots for Italy look hopeful.  Daily new cases have been constant for about 2 weeks.
I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

writingprof

Quote from: paultuttle on April 04, 2020, 10:15:54 AM
Quote from: marshwiggle on April 04, 2020, 07:14:51 AM
Quote from: writingprof on April 04, 2020, 07:10:21 AM

We live in an ironic age, but Trump losing the election because his voters were literally too stupid to live would really be something.

Now that you mention it, it's inevitable that some analysis is going to be done after the election to try and estimate the "covid effect" in close races.

The truly horrifying element for me is how completely expendable some Trumpists think the base is. What an extreme disregard for human life!

It's really Stalin-esque.

Well, you can't make an omelet without breaking a few . . . never mind, let's change the subject to whether abortion is an essential service. As a conservative, I'm on firmer ground there.

nebo113

Quote from: writingprof on April 04, 2020, 03:00:00 PM
Quote from: paultuttle on April 04, 2020, 10:15:54 AM
Quote from: marshwiggle on April 04, 2020, 07:14:51 AM
Quote from: writingprof on April 04, 2020, 07:10:21 AM

We live in an ironic age, but Trump losing the election because his voters were literally too stupid to live would really be something.

Now that you mention it, it's inevitable that some analysis is going to be done after the election to try and estimate the "covid effect" in close races.

The truly horrifying element for me is how completely expendable some Trumpists think the base is. What an extreme disregard for human life!

It's really Stalin-esque.

Well, you can't make an omelet without breaking a few . . . never mind, let's change the subject to whether abortion is an essential service. As a conservative, I'm on firmer ground there.

As usual, you are on thin ice.

RatGuy

Serious question: How long do the experts think Covid19 has been in the States? I'm thinking that I heard that the "first cases" were in Washington State in late January. But I'm thinking back to a colleague who was out the the first two weeks of the term, and how many of my students went to the clinic only for the diagnosis to be "its a virus, but we only know it's not the flu." With so many of our students being from out of state, what's the likelihood that some of these students were infected over the holidays -- and we just didn't know what it was?

spork

#293
Quote from: RatGuy on April 05, 2020, 07:47:22 AM
Serious question: How long do the experts think Covid19 has been in the States? I'm thinking that I heard that the "first cases" were in Washington State in late January. But I'm thinking back to a colleague who was out the the first two weeks of the term, and how many of my students went to the clinic only for the diagnosis to be "its a virus, but we only know it's not the flu." With so many of our students being from out of state, what's the likelihood that some of these students were infected over the holidays -- and we just didn't know what it was?

Given that Covid-19 was spreading in Hubei province as early as mid-November, and the many tens of thousands of people per month traveling between the USA and China, I would not be surprised if SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in the USA by early December.

Edited to add: we've had a worse than average flu season in the USA -- in terms of number of doctor's office visits for influenza-like illness. On my campus there was an unusually large number of students getting sick with generic dorm-crud infections throughout the first half of the semester (described by campus health clinic personnel as "flu" but probably not actual influenza). But these students missed at most a week classes, many went home to recuperate, and none ended up on ventilators or dead.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

clean

At this point, it can only be speculation, and I m reminded that "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." 
I was reading about the length or liife cycle of the illness. It seems that the worst hits about days 7 and 8, so if the students were better in a week, it may not have been CV19. However, most of what I was reading was about the people that were hospitalized. 
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

Anselm

Quote from: RatGuy on April 05, 2020, 07:47:22 AM
Serious question: How long do the experts think Covid19 has been in the States? I'm thinking that I heard that the "first cases" were in Washington State in late January. But I'm thinking back to a colleague who was out the the first two weeks of the term, and how many of my students went to the clinic only for the diagnosis to be "its a virus, but we only know it's not the flu." With so many of our students being from out of state, what's the likelihood that some of these students were infected over the holidays -- and we just didn't know what it was?

Now you got me thinking.  I do remember an unusually high number of absences due to some "flu bug" going around but I am not sure if it was this year or last year.  Eventually the virus experts might figure this out as more data becomes available.  They might be able to figure this out if tissue samples were preserved from autopsies.   
I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

fourhats

QuoteNever heard "in yonks" but love the way it rolls off the tongue!

Meant to jump in earlier on this one. It's a Britishism, short for "in donkey's years." Apparently donkeys live a long time.

namazu

Quote from: spork on April 05, 2020, 08:22:16 AM
Quote from: RatGuy on April 05, 2020, 07:47:22 AM
Serious question: How long do the experts think Covid19 has been in the States? I'm thinking that I heard that the "first cases" were in Washington State in late January. But I'm thinking back to a colleague who was out the the first two weeks of the term, and how many of my students went to the clinic only for the diagnosis to be "its a virus, but we only know it's not the flu." With so many of our students being from out of state, what's the likelihood that some of these students were infected over the holidays -- and we just didn't know what it was?

Given that Covid-19 was spreading in Hubei province as early as mid-November, and the many tens of thousands of people per month traveling between the USA and China, I would not be surprised if SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in the USA by early December.

Edited to add: we've had a worse than average flu season in the USA -- in terms of number of doctor's office visits for influenza-like illness. On my campus there was an unusually large number of students getting sick with generic dorm-crud infections throughout the first half of the semester (described by campus health clinic personnel as "flu" but probably not actual influenza). But these students missed at most a week classes, many went home to recuperate, and none ended up on ventilators or dead.
In addition to the several strains of flu that had been going around, there are numerous other respiratory viruses that circulate in any given year.  Adenovirus and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) are two that come to mind. 

So while it is likely that some early COVID-19 cases were missed, it is probably more likely that people who were sick earlier in the fall/winter had something else.

When we have valid, reliable, widely-available antibody tests, it will be much easier to get a sense of the scope of infection in the population.

Cheerful

Quote from: namazu on April 05, 2020, 11:12:22 AM
When we have valid, reliable, widely-available antibody tests, it will be much easier to get a sense of the scope of infection in the population.

When do you reckon that will be?

Caracal

Quote from: spork on April 05, 2020, 08:22:16 AM
Quote from: RatGuy on April 05, 2020, 07:47:22 AM
Serious question: How long do the experts think Covid19 has been in the States? I'm thinking that I heard that the "first cases" were in Washington State in late January. But I'm thinking back to a colleague who was out the the first two weeks of the term, and how many of my students went to the clinic only for the diagnosis to be "its a virus, but we only know it's not the flu." With so many of our students being from out of state, what's the likelihood that some of these students were infected over the holidays -- and we just didn't know what it was?

Given that Covid-19 was spreading in Hubei province as early as mid-November, and the many tens of thousands of people per month traveling between the USA and China, I would not be surprised if SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in the USA by early December.

Edited to add: we've had a worse than average flu season in the USA -- in terms of number of doctor's office visits for influenza-like illness. On my campus there was an unusually large number of students getting sick with generic dorm-crud infections throughout the first half of the semester (described by campus health clinic personnel as "flu" but probably not actual influenza). But these students missed at most a week classes, many went home to recuperate, and none ended up on ventilators or dead.

No, almost certainly not. I should say that I'm the furthest thing from an expert on this, however there is actually pretty clear evidence that can tell us about how the virus has spread and when.
First of all the way exponential growth works is that it takes time for cases to build to the point where lots of people would be getting sick. The estimates are that this emerged around late November and it wasn't till late December that there were enough cases that it was obvious something was going on. If a few hundred people have something in China, it isn't particularly likely to end up in other places, that only starts happening when the numbers get much higher. Even when that does happen, it would just be a few cases at first. Not enough that tons of college students would be getting sick.

But, there's actually clearer evidence than that. People have been sequencing the genes of the virus and pinpointing mutations to see how it has spread. https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Basically you can look at these and know that the strains circulating in the US almost certainly weren't here before Late January at the very earliest, and probably it was more like mid February. Even at those early dates, we would have just been talking about a few people.