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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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Cheerful

Yesterday, CDC issued controversial guidance regarding essential workers who may have been exposed to the virus but do not have symptoms.  Examine the "printable flyer for workplaces:"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/Essential-Critical-Workers_Dos-and-Donts.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/critical-workers/implementing-safety-practices.html

This guidance is inconsistent with prior emphases on tracing and 14 day quarantine for anyone exposed to a case.  There is a back story here and I'm wondering what the feds are up to.

I feel sorry for grocery workers, especially, and others.  Grocery workers deserve huge raises. 

nebo113

Quote from: secundem_artem on April 08, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
Quote from: nebo113 on April 08, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
Quote from: mamselle on April 07, 2020, 04:27:33 PM
Quote from: spork on April 07, 2020, 12:17:21 PM
State authorities announced that six people from my neighborhood are dead from Covid-19.

I'm sorry for your neighborhood's loss.

The town next to mine announced their first known death yesterday.

M.

I am working with a few others to set up a FB site for our county to attempt to collect and disseminate Covid 19 information. Would you all PM me about how the information was disseminated in your areas?  Thank you,

Why would you need it.  Your state dept of public health is almost certain to have the most up to date data and information already.  All a Facebook page will get you is a selection of half baked conspiracy theories and the usual scientific and statistical ignorance about things most Americans can't understand.  By the time you can post who has masks or toilet paper in stock, the news will be out of data anyway.

This is worth a read:

What We Pretend to Know About the Corona Virus Could Kill Us

Unfortunately, all we know is the number of cases in the county.  The county Emergency Services office said there is no imminent health threat.  That pretty much says it all.  We're not concerned about TP.  Mostly, our goal is to consolidate information, not just on official cases, but food bank needs, domestic violence shelter needs, school food programs.....There is no one place in our miserably dysfunctional county that has the information..  The last posting on the County web site was March 20.  When I brought it up to a Supervisor (to whom I am related), he told me "Technically, that's not my area of responsibility."  That's where we are:  complete abrogation at all levels....

Caracal

Quote from: clean on April 08, 2020, 11:43:15 PM


Of course social distancing will continue until there is a vaccine.  The 'stay home' orders may not need to continue once we are 'under control'  (I hope not longer than another six weeks, or June 1).  However, I think that people, and not the government, will still be leery.  Are you going to be venturing to a bar or movie theater with a lot of people you do not know sitting next to you?  Will you be in a rush to go to a restaurant for a sit down meal with lots of servers and other customers?    Will you fly anytime soon?  Take a cruise, anyone? 



If there was widespread, available and fast testing of symptomatic people and regular updating of those numbers? Then sure, I'd do some of those things if the numbers were low enough in my area. If, in this hopeful future world, I could know that there were lots of tests being run, but only five positives in the last week, and there was decent contact tracking, I could feel like while the risk of going to a restaurant or bar wasn't zero, it would be relatively low. I don't like crowded bars anyway...

Obviously flying might not seem like a good idea as long as there are places in the country with larger numbers of cases.

That said, it seems like what would probably happen would be very gradual relaxation of rules. That seems to be what is starting to be considered in places like Denmark. Maybe take away shelter in place orders and tell people that it is ok to meet with friends in groups under ten, but it should be outside. Then perhaps daycares and kindergartens reopen and people could start going into offices, perhaps with continuing substantial remote work to prevent things being too crowded. The testing is what would be really key though, because you would really want to be able to know that cases weren't going up again as you did these things.

Caracal

Quote from: Cheerful on April 09, 2020, 05:59:12 AM
Yesterday, CDC issued controversial guidance regarding essential workers who may have been exposed to the virus but do not have symptoms.  Examine the "printable flyer for workplaces:"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/Essential-Critical-Workers_Dos-and-Donts.pdf

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/critical-workers/implementing-safety-practices.html

This guidance is inconsistent with prior emphases on tracing and 14 day quarantine for anyone exposed to a case.  There is a back story here and I'm wondering what the feds are up to.


I suspect it is just about numbers going up. They dropped quarantines for doctors, nurses and EMTs possibly exposed weeks ago, because it was obvious that if you did that you weren't going to have any medical workers.

ciao_yall

Quote from: nebo113 on April 09, 2020, 05:58:46 AM
Quote from: namazu on April 08, 2020, 07:49:12 AM
Quote from: nebo113 on April 08, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
I am working with a few others to set up a FB site for our county to attempt to collect and disseminate Covid 19 information.  Would you all PM me about how the information was disseminated in your areas?  Thank you,
My county publishes a map and table with case counts by zip code.  I've seen other county health departments with maps showing case counts by town.  I can PM you some examples, if you'd like.  Of course, if your county or state's health department doesn't already publish this info somewhere, you'd likely have to source it from news reports.

Mostly, we sourcing from local gossip, unfortunately.  The state provides county level numbers but that's it.

Here are two handy resources...

Real time tracker, can drill down: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

And spiffy charts showing local trends: https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/37.7795,-122.4195



bacardiandlime

This report from CDC is also disturbing, though I don't have the medical background to claim expertise. It seems that covid-19 may be much more contagious than originally thought.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

nebo113

Might someone explain what is meant by "peak"?  Is it number of cases?  Is it deaths? 

Anselm

Quote from: nebo113 on April 11, 2020, 01:39:04 PM
Might someone explain what is meant by "peak"?  Is it number of cases?  Is it deaths?

I assume that it means the highest number of newly infected people in one day or one week.
I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

Caracal

Quote from: nebo113 on April 11, 2020, 01:39:04 PM
Might someone explain what is meant by "peak"?  Is it number of cases?  Is it deaths?

I believe it can be either, they are also sometimes using it to refer to things like numbers of people in intensive care, or numbers of people hospitalized.

dismalist

Yeah, the newspaper headlines from NY seem to mean new hospitalizations, though I can't be sure.

The best source of data was put up on this thread, or elsewhere on the fora https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

My favorite is these: Ignore China, choose total cases, and by country, click to transform to logs, and look at all the curves flatten, though they're not perfectly flat yet [which would mean a relative growth rate of zero].
That's not even wrong!
--Wolfgang Pauli

ciao_yall

Quote from: Caracal on April 11, 2020, 01:51:06 PM
Quote from: nebo113 on April 11, 2020, 01:39:04 PM
Might someone explain what is meant by "peak"?  Is it number of cases?  Is it deaths?

I believe it can be either, they are also sometimes using it to refer to things like numbers of people in intensive care, or numbers of people hospitalized.

It is when the number of hospitalizations maxes out and begins to decline. Coupled with a lower rate of new infections.

pigou

If people spend a week in the hospital, then the real "peak" for the health care system is at least one week after the peak in new cases. That is even if we're adding fewer new cases per day, for quite some time we'll still be adding more people than are leaving the hospital.

bacardiandlime

Fair point, Pigou. The reports I'm seeing is that a fair proportion of those who are serious enough to be hospitalised take 2+ weeks to recover.

Do we need a separate thread for academics who have passed from Covid?