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Coronavirus

Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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Caracal

Quote from: pigou on April 11, 2020, 05:14:16 PM
If people spend a week in the hospital, then the real "peak" for the health care system is at least one week after the peak in new cases. That is even if we're adding fewer new cases per day, for quite some time we'll still be adding more people than are leaving the hospital.

I think when they are talking about the idea that the peak might be right now in NY, they are talking about numbers of deaths, hospital admissions and  people in the ICU. The number of deaths have been almost the same for the last few days and the other numbers have dropped very slightly. Because testing is only getting a fraction of cases and access to tests isn't constant, these sorts of numbers essentially are telling you about spread of the virus in the past, but they suggest that the infection numbers were leveling off a week ago. If those ICU numbers keep going down, then eventually you'd expect the deaths to start going down too, but they'll be a lag.

apl68

Stop-the-World-I-Want-To-Get-Off department:

A crew of Dutch high school students on a transatlantic tall ship voyage made it into Cuba after five weeks at sea.  Rather than fly home from Cuba as scheduled, they've turned around and headed back to sea to avoid the plague-ridden outer world.


https://wsbt.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-forces-dutch-students-into-long-voyage-home


See, your King is coming to you, just and bringing salvation, gentle and lowly, and riding upon a donkey.

marshwiggle

Quote from: apl68 on April 14, 2020, 08:34:16 AM
Stop-the-World-I-Want-To-Get-Off department:

A crew of Dutch high school students on a transatlantic tall ship voyage made it into Cuba after five weeks at sea.  Rather than fly home from Cuba as scheduled, they've turned around and headed back to sea to avoid the plague-ridden outer world.


https://wsbt.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-forces-dutch-students-into-long-voyage-home

It sounds more like they flew to the Caribbean, and they were to sail to Cuba, and instead sailed home. The article's not clear, but it doesn't sound like the orginal ocean crossing was on the ship.
It takes so little to be above average.

Economizer

4/15 media briefing up on www.who.int.
Our president is making a point but is probably spurring actions beneficial by and to others. Disagree? Well, there is a WHO donation link on the web site (above).

I suggest (from):

Individuals -    $      5
Pvt. Sch.                 10
Sch. Sys.                 50
Colleges.               100
Universities.       1000
Foundations.      1000
Other Able Org.  1000

OK?
So, I tried to straighten everything out and guess what I got for it.  No, really, just guess!

apl68

We've had the first death in our county.  He went in to a hospital in the state capital for a pacemaker, and apparently caught the virus in the hospital.
See, your King is coming to you, just and bringing salvation, gentle and lowly, and riding upon a donkey.

bacardiandlime

I'm hearing from a lot of friends and acquaintances who have it, or think they have (and who are suffering a lot more than the "usually mild" that was being put around).

ergative

Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 17, 2020, 01:55:34 AM
I'm hearing from a lot of friends and acquaintances who have it, or think they have (and who are suffering a lot more than the "usually mild" that was being put around).

As I understand it, 'usually mild' doesn't mean 'like a cold'. It means 'not enough to require hospitalization'. And that can be pretty bad.

downer

I've got a few friends who think they have had it and a bunch of friends of friends who have definitely had it. I've been struck by the variability of symptoms. Even some elderly people seem have relatively mild symptoms. The breathing problems are the hardest symptoms it seems even when it does not turn into pneumonia. The fever, headache, and overwhelming tiredness are also alarming. But some people only get a few of those symptoms, and less. Then there's the completely unresolved question of how many people with it are asymptomatic.
"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."—Sinclair Lewis

bacardiandlime

I know of one person who said that they were suffering from nausea, vomiting, etc - no respiratory issues. They were not tested, yet are convinced they had Corona. I'm thinking they probably had norovirus.

Caracal

Quote from: ergative on April 17, 2020, 03:23:27 AM
Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 17, 2020, 01:55:34 AM
I'm hearing from a lot of friends and acquaintances who have it, or think they have (and who are suffering a lot more than the "usually mild" that was being put around).

As I understand it, 'usually mild' doesn't mean 'like a cold'. It means 'not enough to require hospitalization'. And that can be pretty bad.

From a mix of news reports and people I know who got it, it seems to vary a lot even within that spectrum. One of the people on the Diamond Princess said it basically felt like a mild flu and if he got it in a different context, he might have gone into work. I have a couple of family members who got it (they are doctors, so had easy access to testing) and it seemed pretty unpleasant but also of fairly short duration. Fever, Chills, Cough, but in a couple of days they were fine. Also know some other people who were quite sick for more than a week and only gradually got better. The digestive symptoms are less common, but they do happen. An acquaintance tested positive and have only a pretty slight cough but much more severe digestive problems.

bacardiandlime

I understand symptoms can vary. I'm still skeptical of the self-diagnosed. (Especially all the "oh, I probably had it back in December" crowd: seems like a weird version of early-adopter syndrome).

Caracal

Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 18, 2020, 03:14:50 AM
I understand symptoms can vary. I'm still skeptical of the self-diagnosed. (Especially all the "oh, I probably had it back in December" crowd: seems like a weird version of early-adopter syndrome).

Oh, those people are driving me nuts. If you were sick in December or January in the US, you had the flu. Even in February, when Covid was circulating undetected in the US, it was undetected because pretty small numbers of people had it. (And we weren't testing) The guy who felt crummy in Utica in February almost certainly just had the flu.

downer

From another thread
Quote from: Caracal on April 18, 2020, 06:15:40 AM
Based on what we know, which isn't enough, it appears that unlike flu, kids probably aren't a big driver of COVID. They can get it, they can transmit it, but adults gathering together seems to be a much greater risk than kids doing the same.

I haven't seen evidence for this. I think of kids as carriers who are just as likely to transmit the virus as anyone else.
"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."—Sinclair Lewis

spork

Quote from: downer on April 18, 2020, 09:57:59 AM
From another thread
Quote from: Caracal on April 18, 2020, 06:15:40 AM
Based on what we know, which isn't enough, it appears that unlike flu, kids probably aren't a big driver of COVID. They can get it, they can transmit it, but adults gathering together seems to be a much greater risk than kids doing the same.

I haven't seen evidence for this. I think of kids as carriers who are just as likely to transmit the virus as anyone else.

Yup. The data that do exist suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is far more contagious than the previous SARS virus or MERS and that a large portion of those who get infected remain asymptomatic.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Caracal

Quote from: spork on April 18, 2020, 10:45:45 AM


I haven't seen evidence for this. I think of kids as carriers who are just as likely to transmit the virus as anyone else.

Yup. The data that do exist suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is far more contagious than the previous SARS virus or MERS and that a large portion of those who get infected remain asymptomatic.
[/quote]

I might have overstated this, but I think it is probably more accurate to say that the jury is still out. There haven't been known clusters of transmission centering around children. That could be because kids get milder symptoms so their role has been missed, but it could also be that they don't transmit the virus as easily. You would sort of think it might have been noticed if tons of parents and teachers at particular schools got sick, but to my knowledge there isn't much evidence of that.