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Started by bacardiandlime, January 30, 2020, 03:20:28 PM

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polly_mer

Quote from: Hegemony on June 26, 2020, 01:45:52 PM
nother friend: "I'm not taking chances, I'm only seeing family. I see Bob's crew because he's my brother and they're his family, and then my niece and her husband, and her mother-in-law because she's over a lot, and then my kids and their spouses, but apart from that I'm not seeing anybody."

My in-laws were running on that logic.  My SIL is now under official quarantine due to exposure through her job.  We've got every digit crossed that she didn't manage to pass anything to the septuagenarians who refused to believe that close family would be a concern.  After all, SIL and BIL are only two people and the state says groups of up to 10 are fine so family groups of 4-6 should be fine.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

spork

Quote from: Cheerful on June 27, 2020, 10:53:16 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on June 27, 2020, 10:50:41 AM
I regularly use Zoom, Webex, and Skype.

The primary differences I notice are the variety of equipment people are using to connect and how much bandwidth they have. 

A crummy mic on a smart phone that is held at arm's length at a random height is much more of a problem than which software is involved.

Connecting from the hinterlands and trying to share video that is irrelevant (the Brady Bunch boxes) instead of calling in via phone for a much better connection for a discussion that can be completely without visuals is my current biggest pet peeve.

+1   And Zoom is overrated.

I suspected as much; in mid-March when the campus closed our art faculty jumped on Zoom. Understandably they needed a way to communicate with students visually. At the time Zoom was probably easier for them and their students to learn on very short notice (Webex still seems to require lots of steps to operate, though this might be due to whatever tier of service the university has purchased from Cisco).

The current problem is getting acceptable-quality, synced video and audio from the classroom to anyone connecting remotely with Webex. If everyone is online, things work ok. It's the "we're going to live stream everything from the F2F classroom" that's complicated.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Anselm

I see a lot of magical thinking and looking for exceptions amongst my friends & acquaintances.

One friend: "Oh, I am not going out at all! I mean, I go to the grocery, but only once a week. And I went to the eye doctor for my annual checkup, and to my massage person because I really feel a lot better if I get a massage. And I didn't want to look completely feral so I got my hair cut and my mani/pedi. Then I had my church choir over for lunch but we all sat outside and only Annabel sang."

(And I'm thinking, that's like a dozen contacts in one week!)


Hegemony, this seems reasonable to me.  If everybody kept human contacts down to this level then I think we will beat this disease. 
I am Dr. Thunderdome and I run Bartertown.

nebo113

And yes, I am going to the opthomalogist (sp) tomorrow and may also have cataract surgery soon.  Either that, or lookat the world through increasingly blurry eyeballs.  It's a crapshoot.

downer

I too love to judge the reckless behavior of others.

But I like to go further, also judging those who stay in their apartments or houses the whole time and never seeing daylight or getting any exercise outside. There's an overabundance of caution, I think to myself.
"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."—Sinclair Lewis

clean

I dont remember IF I typed this here or not.  My PhD school office mate, early on, questions my too frequent trips to the grocery store to restock on salad stuff and fresh vegetables.
He asked, "What do you need So badly that you are WILLING TO DIE to get?"

After that I switched to ordering groceries delivered.

I admit that I fell off the wagon and was out and about. However, when I was out, I was disgusted by the number not only NOT wearing masks, but ignoring social distancing!  (Like when I was trying to get tomatos and an unmasked asshole steps right up and reaches over me to pick some too!)  "You dont have to wear a mask, but You DO have to back up and wait your turn!" 

Two weeks ago or so we were seeing positive tests in the teens.  A high of 25 was hit after a local meat processor was hit hard.  Yesterday we were "down to 215!" new positive cases!  We have tripled the number of positive cases in 10 days!   

I have learned MY LESSON!  Im back to staying out of the stores. 

Local government has cancelled parades and fireworks for next weekend.  Still, I fear that there will be too many more cases after next weekend (July 4).  IF there are over 200 positive cases found a day for the last 4/5 days, then how many cases are 'in the wild' waiting to kill me?

Good luck to all on your efforts to stay safe!  Remember, you are only as safe as the most selfish disease spreader out there!  Stay away from them or risk death!
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

spork

Quote from: clean on June 28, 2020, 09:45:32 AM

[. . . ]

IF there are over 200 positive cases found a day for the last 4/5 days, then how many cases are 'in the wild' waiting to kill me?

[. . . ]

If I remember correctly, best guesstimates are that today's numbers give a picture of the spread two weeks ago.
It's terrible writing, used to obfuscate the fact that the authors actually have nothing to say.

Penna

In relation to clean's grocery store anecdote:  yes, the inability to control the potential for other people to put me at risk (whether through ignorance, forgetfulness, or simply lack of adequate concern for others) is a huge factor driving my state of voluntary lockdown.

A couple of weeks ago, I was on campus checking out larger classrooms I might be able to use for some of my classes.  I ran into two campus visitors (a parent and new student), neither of whom were wearing masks.  They asked if I was a faculty member and I talked to them for about 10 or 15 minutes (we were standing in a semi-enclosed breezeway).  I was wearing a mask, but what felt really awkward was that, when they first approached me, I had to move backwards several times in order to maintain six feet of distance.   I guess I should have just voiced a verbal reminder ("six feet, please" or something) but I'm sort of a shy person in situations like that and so I said nothing and just moved a few steps back as necessary.  But it felt uncomfortable and made me somewhat anxious at the time. 

Regarding the issue of judging the behavior of others, I'll admit I am sometimes guilty of that as well.  But I do try not to.  I realize that other people may have any number of different circumstances which necessitate going out far more than I do. I also realize that some people are just wired differently and are willing to take a certain amount of risk because staying completely at home would negatively affect their mental and/or physical health.  In my case, staying at home doesn't really bother me, and in terms of physical health, I'm fortunate in that we have a dedicated workout room in our house, with several pieces of exercise equipment.

As long as those people who are going out are doing their best to avoid putting others at risk in the process by strictly following all the guidelines, I don't feel any impulse to judge them.

clean

QuoteQuote from: clean on Today at 09:45:32 AM

[. . . ]

IF there are over 200 positive cases found a day for the last 4/5 days, then how many cases are 'in the wild' waiting to kill me?

[. . . ]

If I remember correctly, best guesstimates are that today's numbers give a picture of the spread two weeks ago.

I think that the maximum estimate for the incubation period is 2 weeks.  I think that the average/median period is between 3 and 6 days.  But with many people, especially the 20somethings that are the modal group of positive cases (at 27% of the total positive cases) having only mild effects, how many others might be infected now?  How long is one contagious?  AS masks have only again been required since Friday, I m certain that there are plenty of sick people spreading the illness and not aware that they even have it. 

We seem to be getting reports every day now on the news of another positive test at a grocery store, big box store or something. 

NOw that masks are required of all customers and staff, I hope that the positives will drop next week, unless the July 4th Saturday is an especially busy one for visitors.
"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

Caracal

Quote from: clean on June 28, 2020, 09:45:32 AM
I dont remember IF I typed this here or not.  My PhD school office mate, early on, questions my too frequent trips to the grocery store to restock on salad stuff and fresh vegetables.
He asked, "What do you need So badly that you are WILLING TO DIE to get?"

After that I switched to ordering groceries delivered.

I admit that I fell off the wagon and was out and about. However, when I was out, I was disgusted by the number not only NOT wearing masks, but ignoring social distancing!  (Like when I was trying to get tomatos and an unmasked asshole steps right up and reaches over me to pick some too!)  "You dont have to wear a mask, but You DO have to back up and wait your turn!" 



By all accounts grocery stores aren't particularly high risk, just because they are big spaces and you aren't likely to be in prolonged contact with anybody for very long. So, I wouldn't say that people who go grocery stores are being reckless. We've been getting pick up, because it is a fairly easy thing to do.

On the other hand, there's a danger about worrying too much about low risk activities. Spread isn't being driven by people going to grocery stores, or socializing outside.

clean

For $5 I can have groceries delivered.  I just checked and I can get a delivery as soon as 2pm on Tuesday (Today is Sunday, 2 pm). 
I admit that the prices seem to be a tad higher than in the store, and you have to buy what they have online (as the selection online is more limited than that in the store, and you may have to buy the quantity that they offer... I can't  eat 2 pounds of bananas before they turn but that is the minimum for bananas.)

But I dont have to buy gas for the car, drive there, park, risk over buying (being enamored by 'a sale'!)...

For $5 It is hard to justify going to the store even if the risks are minimal (and Im not certain that they are, as it only takes one selfish, careless person to risk infecting others (killing ME!).

"The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am"  Darth Vader

Penna

Quote from: Caracal on June 28, 2020, 11:44:31 AM
Spread isn't being driven by people going to grocery stores, or socializing outside.

True.  I just wonder about what the actual level of risk will be for teaching in small, poorly ventilated classrooms for hours at a time--even with social distancing and a masking requirement.

secundem_artem

Although I continue to wear a mask, stay 6 feet away and practice handwashing, I'm a bit less concerned about risks than previously.

A recent webinar I attended reviewed the results of a trial of hydroxychloroquine to prevent Covid in 800 people who had had a significant (i.e. exposed for at least 10 minutes at less than 6 feet of distance) household or occupational exposure to a confirmed case of Covid.  Although I was not surprised to find that HCQ had no demonstrable prophylactic effect, what did catch my eye was this:

12 (HCQ arm) and 14% (placebo arm)  of subjects (all of whom had been significantly exposed to coronavirus) developed covid.  p=0.35

In other words, only about 1 in 8 people with a meaningful exposure developed covid.

I'm increasingly less concerned about the risk posed by the relatively brief time I spend in grocery stores and suspect the greater risk comes from more prolonged exposure - especially in crowded settings - like restaurants or Trump rallies.

For more detail see: https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
Funeral by funeral, the academy advances

Caracal

Quote from: clean on June 28, 2020, 12:02:46 PM
For $5 I can have groceries delivered.  I just checked and I can get a delivery as soon as 2pm on Tuesday (Today is Sunday, 2 pm). 
I admit that the prices seem to be a tad higher than in the store, and you have to buy what they have online (as the selection online is more limited than that in the store, and you may have to buy the quantity that they offer... I can't  eat 2 pounds of bananas before they turn but that is the minimum for bananas.)

But I dont have to buy gas for the car, drive there, park, risk over buying (being enamored by 'a sale'!)...

For $5 It is hard to justify going to the store even if the risks are minimal (and Im not certain that they are, as it only takes one selfish, careless person to risk infecting others (killing ME!).

Oh sure, I wasn't criticizing your choices. I'm making that same choice. I was just saying we want to be careful to distinguish between our own personal choices about risk and judgements of others.

marshwiggle

Quote from: secundem_artem on June 28, 2020, 01:39:24 PM
Although I continue to wear a mask, stay 6 feet away and practice handwashing, I'm a bit less concerned about risks than previously.

A recent webinar I attended reviewed the results of a trial of hydroxychloroquine to prevent Covid in 800 people who had had a significant (i.e. exposed for at least 10 minutes at less than 6 feet of distance) household or occupational exposure to a confirmed case of Covid.  Although I was not surprised to find that HCQ had no demonstrable prophylactic effect, what did catch my eye was this:

12 (HCQ arm) and 14% (placebo arm)  of subjects (all of whom had been significantly exposed to coronavirus) developed covid.  p=0.35

In other words, only about 1 in 8 people with a meaningful exposure developed covid.


This is relevant for students on campus, since every break between classes will tend to involve about 10 minutes of being within 6 feet of a whole bunch of people. So, once an outbreak starts, as more become (asymptomatically) infected, the halls will become more dangerous.
It takes so little to be above average.