Coronavirus

[downer]

It's not possible to study the long term effects of a new medication without waiting a long time. I'll wait until the long term effects are known.

That's nice. But are you living in a cave? And do you plan to just remain there for the next five years?

I'll defer to the experts who I'm pretty sure will tell you the same thing, but just because a vaccine is new, doesn't mean we are doing some brand new thing with totally unknown risks. The risks would presumably be similar to those of other vaccines. Vaccines can cause certain kinds of short term reactions, but I've never heard of any long term ones that would only surface years later. A vaccine is not likely to cause higher rates of cancer, or heart disease years down the road because one never has and I don't think there's any real mechanism for that to happen.

One question about the future is what proportion of the population will get a vaccine if it becomes available. Given the resistance to ones that have been proven safe, I expect that there will be plenty of reluctance in the population, for good and bad reasons, to take the new one.
This news item says only half of Americans would get one. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-half-americans-would-get/
So public policy won't be able to assume that everyone is getting the vaccine.

So, what you seem to be saying is that you would, for not very good reasons, refuse to get a vaccine. Then you point out that your refusal to do so, could mean that lots of people remain vulnerable to COVID and can continue to infect people with certain conditions which might make it impossible for them to get a vaccine, and might also put them at much higher risk of dying from Covid?

Obviously I believe my reasons for not getting the vaccine are good ones.

So that's not what I'm saying. It's your take on it, which I believe to be misguided.

There will be the issue of minimizing risk to others, which I will do, as I do now. That may well mean avoiding contact with others.

[Caracal]

There will be the issue of minimizing risk to others, which I will do, as I do now. That may well mean avoiding contact with others.

Oh ok, so you'll quit your job if it requires teaching in person? Refuse to come to meetings? Not have any person relationships with other people? For the next five years?

[Cheerful]

Not everyone gets the flu shot.  Yes, I know, COVID isn't the flu.

Vaccine discussions are kind of premature.  No one knows what is going to happen or when.  Focus on today.

[downer]

There will be the issue of minimizing risk to others, which I will do, as I do now. That may well mean avoiding contact with others.

Oh ok, so you'll quit your job if it requires teaching in person? Refuse to come to meetings? Not have any person relationships with other people? For the next five years?

There will be some negotiation if it comes to that.

This is all assuming a good vaccine becomes available.

[Caracal]

Not everyone gets the flu shot.  Yes, I know, COVID isn't the flu.

Vaccine discussions are kind of premature.  No one knows what is going to happen or when.  Focus on today.

Indeed, but I find it frustrating when people say ridiculous things and pretend they are being reasonable.  It would be much better if everyone did get the flu shot...

[Stockmann]

I wouldn't give it to my child. If you're diabetic and in a nursing home in a hotspot, it makes sense to take your chances with a vaccine, but for a lot of people it won't. Which unfortunately means that even if the vaccine is safe and effective you won't have anything approaching herd immunity, because we're not the only ones who think that.

Jesus. I'd hope that the moment it became available, the school my kid attended would require it. I'm not interested in having my kid get infected and transmit the virus to me or family members more vulnerable because others have vague, not very well thought out worries.

I would have a lot more faith in the FDA (I'm presuming you're in the US?) than in my local authorities. Unlike "normal" vaccines, the financial, political and reputational pressures and rewards create huge incentives to cut corners which isn't the case with other new vaccines, nor with any well-established vaccines. To clarify, I'm not saying I'd never take a corona vaccine, but I wouldn't want to take it if newly approved, unlike regular childhood vaccines or the flu shot (which have been shown to be safe and effective "in the wild").  The incentives to cut corners are just too great for me to trust without evidence of its success "in the wild." The longer a corona vaccine would've been in use without obvious problems the more I'd trust it, of course.
If you look at it globally, there are already lots of instances of false/misleading/mistaken directives, coverups, etc, related to this pandemic, coming from governments, national health authorities, etc. From China denying that person-to-person transmission was even possible (and we'll jail anyone who says otherwise!) to "it's just a little cold (and I will fire my health ministers until I find one that will agree)" (Brazil - although Sweden hasn't been all that different) to "shrines will become centers of healing" (Iran) to "two-dollar bills and Jesus stamps ward it off" (Mexico). If national authorities fail to ensure a vaccine is safe and effective, there's really nothing else, no other "fuse" - the WHO is so spineless they can't even bring themselves to say "Taiwan." None of this bodes well for places without highly trustworthy local health authorities.
Also, vaccines do improve over time - more effective vaccines with fewer side effects tend to be produced for the same disease as time passes.

[apl68]

This news item says only half of Americans would get one. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-half-americans-would-get/
So public policy won't be able to assume that everyone is getting the vaccine.

More specifically, 67% of those over 65 say they would, while only 40% of those who are younger would.  Wonder how that compares with flu vaccines?  It sounds like typical "young invincible" thinking.

More disturbingly, the poll indicates that only 25% of black respondents would take the vaccine.  Any ideas why that would be so?  Mistrust of the medical profession?  Fears that the vaccine would be too expensive?

[downer]

This news item says only half of Americans would get one. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-half-americans-would-get/
So public policy won't be able to assume that everyone is getting the vaccine.

More specifically, 67% of those over 65 say they would, while only 40% of those who are younger would.  Wonder how that compares with flu vaccines?  It sounds like typical "young invincible" thinking.

More disturbingly, the poll indicates that only 25% of black respondents would take the vaccine.  Any ideas why that would be so?  Mistrust of the medical profession?  Fears that the vaccine would be too expensive?

Probably both. There is certainly extensive mistrust of the medical profession among African Americans.

[AmLitHist]

I didn't mean to set off the shitstorm that seems to have ensued after my observation about the chickenpox vaccine back in 1989. People's experiences and reasons for doing things vary, and I'm not calling anyone else stupid or unreasonable (or a bad doctor) for the decisions the various "you"s here might choose to make. I'd appreciate the same consideration and respect. I simply shared a somewhat-related story from my own past experience. (And yes, my girls did get all their other routine shots, including the hepatitis B and HPV vaccines.)

Once a vaccine is available and proven (as much as possible) to be safe and effective, I'll get one. I don't do a lot of social contact in normal times, aside from going to work and the occasional trip to a store, and even those have been cut way down since mid-March when my college went online; I can count on my fingers how often I've been around people in that time, always N95 masked and gloved. So it's not like I'm going to be much of a vector while I wait, as I'm not particularly at risk to be exposed or to expose anyone else.

And yes, if it comes to "get the vaccine or get fired" while my physician is telling me not to do so, let them fire me. Between my family history of various conditions, my own health, and comingthisclose last year to dying of a MRSA infection that went from a barely visible scratch to full-blown sepsis and near-organ shutdown in a matter of about 36 hours, I'm not playing around. I've medically aged about 15 years over the past 18 months, and while my worries might not be objectively rational, it's my decision.  Every vaccine has side effects, and until it's clear what this one's are, I'm not taking chances and setting off another cascade of problems that gets out of control. It can happen easily enough to me as it is.

According to these fora, "YMMV" and "SPADFY."  So I guess the tl;dr version is:  forget I said anything, and let's do something productive with our time instead.

[secundem_artem]

My fat hairy tuchus is going to be first in line if a vaccine comes available. 

What I'm reading here is just the usual anti big pharma,  vaccine hesitancy paranoia.

[downer]

I'd distinguish between nonsense scares such as vaccines causing autism and the well documented failures of American medicine that have been investigated by scholars.

Of course, you can dismiss a view you don't like as nuts. But there's plenty of reason to be sceptical about medical trends in the US. When you add the highly politicized situation and the basic failure of government to work with the medical establishment in much of the US regarding COVID, it seems risky to me to rush to take the first vaccine that gets approved and pushed to the public.

At the very least, I'm going to see what is happening in countries where they make more rational decisions and the profit motive does not dominate everything.

[Hibush]

This news item says only half of Americans would get one. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-half-americans-would-get/
So public policy won't be able to assume that everyone is getting the vaccine.

More specifically, 67% of those over 65 say they would, while only 40% of those who are younger would.  Wonder how that compares with flu vaccines?  It sounds like typical "young invincible" thinking.

More disturbingly, the poll indicates that only 25% of black respondents would take the vaccine.  Any ideas why that would be so?  Mistrust of the medical profession?  Fears that the vaccine would be too expensive?

Probably both. There is certainly extensive mistrust of the medical profession among African Americans.

To what extent does that contribute to differential health outcomes? Lesser care-> poorer outcomes -> greater mistrust -> even poorer health outcomes from missing good care

[Caracal]

According to these fora, "YMMV" and "SPADFY."  So I guess the tl;dr version is:  forget I said anything, and let's do something productive with our time instead.

To be clear, if you or your doctor is concerned that a vaccine could pose too much of a risk, that's very different from someone just saying they won't be vaccinated for this more generally. But, I'm with Secondum Artem. In theory I'm not in a high risk group, but I'd like to not get Covid, worry about getting Covid, or worry about giving Covid to anyone else, thanks very much. I wish I could stop worrying about those things sooner than I probably will. As far as safety, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think some of these vaccines could have slightly higher risks of side effects, known and unknown. The good thing is that it isn't just the US government who is going to be scrutinizing any vaccines.

[Anselm]

The biology teachers I know tell me that if they do find a vaccine then we will have to get it every year since we can't get lifelong immunity against an RNA virus. 

[science.expat]

The biology teachers I know tell me that if they do find a vaccine then we will have to get it every year since we can't get lifelong immunity against an RNA virus.

So? I get a flu shot every year.

I'll also get vaccinated as soon as I'm able too. And I live in Australia.