Will Putin unleash nukes?
He's getting ready to.
I was just watching these three commentaries:
a) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ac1HKR5TdDI
b) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC5qOD5r4LA
c) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPGGLDrzPa4
Kasparov wouldn't be surprised, and from all we're seeing, I'm very sad to say, neither would I.
Just moving in over Chernobyl had a faint whiff of a suggestion of the possibility...a gauzy, ghostly piece of theatre one can be sure was not random or unintentional.
This is also significant:
d) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZZFHgHzkdk
M.
Quote from: nebo113 on February 27, 2022, 04:54:19 PM
Will Putin unleash nukes?
No.
He wants more, just like the rest of us. He knows what he's doing, but most important is that he's less risk averse than the rest of us. Fog of war even aside.
He's playing a good game.
Just found this site, don't know how I haven't seen it before:
It's France24, based in Paris, with coverage completely in English:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNhh-OLzWlE
Interviews, commentary, and analysis are all local.
M.
Also this interesting analysis, suggesting this is a cosplay of 1999, when the US and NATO bombed Kosova and set it up for regime change...
https://youtu.be/cxJxfSCMvnE
As for what "Putin is...", the most printable thing I can think of is "...a poker-faced 5-year-old sandbox bully who hasn't figured out that the empty hole in his heart won't be satisfied with taking over other people's homes and destroying their lives...but he feels compelled to try it anyway...."
I have never trusted him: such a cold lack of affect; he smiles like a shy teddy bear, while planning his attack like a sly cobra.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on February 27, 2022, 06:03:41 PM
Just found this site, don't know how I haven't seen it before:
It's France24, based in Paris, with coverage completely in English:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNhh-OLzWlE
Interviews, commentary, and analysis are all local.
M.
I used to watch the English language newscast (half hour long) of France 24 when it was available on our satellite channel offerings. I visit the France 24 website during the week--they seem to have more reporters throughout the world.
Woke up thinking...."just a couple of Mossad agents, one acting as a cook, the other a chauffeur, some puffer-fish toxin, and..."
Weird amalgam of an unidentified dream, too much Le Carre, and a whiff of Dick Francis thrown in.
I promise I'm not normally so strategically vindictive....
M.
Fiona Hill's perspective...
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
I saw that. Impressive.
Also this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5UAz1fIdP0
and this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPRmbV2vLzo
and this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pczhvvqL_Qo
Wisdom and depth of purpose in all three cases.
M.
And, too late to add/edit, but this speech by Zalensky earned him a standing ovation at the EU:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7TyVYH-ZzE
At one point, it sounds as if the translator is in tears.
M.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083686062/russias-invasion-of-ukrainian-has-already-changed-the-world-as-we-know-it
Anne apple Baum on Fresh Air NPR 3/1/22
Agree.
World War III just started last week, people.
M.
An interesting analogy to the Ukraine invasion was cited on another blog -- the Winter War.
Here is the very illuminating and intelligent Twitter thread by a Finn https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184 (https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184)
There is also an informative and moving video about the Winter War, Fire and Ice, made by the BBC, if I recall, but put on You Tube by Finnish television
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s)
I just fear whatever support arrives will be too little, too late.
Standing ovations are all well and good, but Zalensky's not tap-dancing his tiny heart out so they'll stand up and clap.
If bombing a nuclear power plant and preventing firefighters from putting out the fires before the core is ruptured and a meltdown begins isn't a clear-and-present-enough danger to make NATO tender more serious support in situ, I don't know what is.
It will probably take a serious death to move the politicians off their platitudes and get them to do more than just sanction Russian economic institutions....you've got Cato saying "Ukrania delenda est," on the one hand, and a buncha folks piously saying, "No boots on the ground, no support for a no-fly zone," which are the sole two things Z's been pleading for, with grace, stamina, and dignity, ever since this whole mess began.
No wonder the French hated us for waiting two, three years, and then swanning in and playing WWIi heroes, rather than preventing all those earlier deaths to begin with.
Putin has nearly sewed up the whole southern and Eastern coasts, so no supplies can get in that way now, while the rest of the world has been tut-tutting about how stupid it is to run a convoy in through the north that you can't supply.
That was just a decoy.
He's stupid like a fox.
In ten days, if nothing else changes, it'll be all over.
M.
I hope Putin will at some point hit the limit of his economic capacity to wage imperialism. After all, both in per capita and total terms, Russian GDP is very much in the same ballpark as that of Mexico. Russia is already paying for a massive nuclear arsenal and fighting in multiple theaters. There is no obvious economic advantage to this war, even if Russia were to annex all of a war-torn Ukraine - what are they going to do, sell Atomik vodka to South Ossetia? At any rate, Putin seems to have forgotten the other side of the ledger of Europe's dependence on Russian gas - Russia doesn't really have anyone else to sell it to. There are no pipelines to export it to China - I'm sure the Chinese would build them on credit, if Russia wants to be at China's tender mercies.
It's hard not to wonder what might have been - that maybe this whole tragedy could've been avoided if there had been a Marshall Plan for the former Soviet Union, if Russia had been treated like, esp., post-WWII Italy, instead of the end-of-history arrogance of the 1990's and European fecklessness - not least, German weakness and corruption.
But the thing about economic sanctions is that, finally, they may just prove to be so much paper-rattling.
He can just go into debt, internally if not externally, mortgaging the lives and incomes of Russians for a long ahead as he likes, since he has no accountability to speak of--who does he report to, after all? One of those guys at the end of the 7-foot table?
We are all Anthony Eden.
M.
Ultimately, the generals could hold him accountable. The Soviet military arrested Beria, after all. I'm not saying that's what will happen. But there are limits to Putin's power and some of them involve economic constraints. The Soviet economy bearing the burden of financing a superpower's military played a big role in the USSR's collapse. Conscripts' pay is, in dollars, worth about half what it was before the war - impoverished wartime conscripts didn't work out too well for Nikolai II. The ruble is already facing an Argentina-level crisis.
Best would be--as I said to one of my students whose parents are both from Lviv--to send Putin up in a hot air balloon, fueled to reach the stratosphere.
She agreed.
M.
If he feels increasingly cornered, will he press the big red button, over which he has complete control?
Yes, that is the other danger--as with suicides and hostage-takers, it's usually said to be important for negotiators to continue to emphasize their ties to other humans so they don't consider themselves so isolated that extreme actions have no significance.
It's too bad the other kids in the apartment complex where he grew up weren't nicer to him.
As with Hitler's declined admission to art school...
M.
ETA: Ban on oil immanent, per this live link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSYV94ikhA0
Boots on the ground and no fly zones will mean WW3. Are you ready for that? I can handle higher prices for gas and food. Most Americans can't endure that. If their survival as an independent nation is threatened then the Russians will use nuclear weapons. Then the war will no longer mean CNN and popcorn in your living room.
Did Biden cut off Putin's Amazon Prime membership yet? He mentioned the collapse of the ruble and the Russian stock market during his SOTU speech and got applause. Every day we hear of new sanctions by corporations which will have no effect. Russians will survive without Nike and Netflix. I have no doubt that Putin and his generals have considered all of these actions before going to war and have contingency plans in place. The weakness of the USA is the assumption that money can solve all problems. It did not work in Afghanistan and now as a final tantrum we are talking about stealing Afghan assets in the USA and giving it away. The Taliban likely are not worried about even having a stock market but they still are in power. The Russians are in this to win. Brace yourselves.
Yes, there is now direct evidence the Wagner Group's assassins are involved:
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-posts-photos-dog-tag-says-wagner-group-2022-3
I would very much prefer seeing Zelensky returning to do a reprise on DWTS after a victory over this insanity than any other scenario.
M.
I can see wisdom in the Marshall Plan idea, but (I'll have to go look it up) didn't Russia prove itself a bad actor before anything like that could be enacted by taking over the parts of Berlin and the other E. European countries (that became the "Eastern Bloc" satellite zone) that had been sectored to them?
I don't remember the timing for certain, but it runs in my mind that they grabbed before they could be given to.
Or maybe not.
In any case, I fear we're going to see Zalensky--possibly quite rightly, from his perspective--making concessions to the Russians since there's no more forward movement on a no-fly zone, and Poland is now playing footsie with the jets they were going to send, saying they'll wait for NATO approval.
He's been slow-waltzed into looking to other alternatives than the US and NATO to help, since the things he really says he needs are being ignored. Sanctions are all very well, but all the back-patting and white-glove-test self-congratulations aren't going to stop the bombs as quickly as they need to.
A maternity hospital was bombed today, and yet another cease-fire corridor was attacked--among other things...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJlINj57-XQ
M.
Quote from: Stockmann on March 07, 2022, 06:36:37 PM
Ultimately, the generals could hold him accountable. The Soviet military arrested Beria, after all.
After Stalin was safely dead.
Quote from: Anselm on March 09, 2022, 06:48:04 AM
If their survival as an independent nation is threatened then the Russians will use nuclear weapons.
The only serious threat to Russian independence right now is if they become economically beholden to China.
QuoteDid Biden cut off Putin's Amazon Prime membership yet? He mentioned the collapse of the ruble and the Russian stock market during his SOTU speech and got applause. Every day we hear of new sanctions by corporations which will have no effect. Russians will survive without Nike and Netflix.
Prices are already soaring in Russia, and if that turns into hyperinflation, well, to the best of my knowledge the only regimes in history to have survived it are North Korea and, currently, Venezuela. In Yugoslavia, hyperinflation brought down the State itself, not just a regime. Economic collapse brought down the Soviet Union. Impoverished conscripts ended Tsarism. Economic weakness set the dominoes in motion in Poland that ultimately brought down the Warsaw Pact.
Also, this whole situation has resulted in a new wave of emigration from Russia - a country already in demographic decline before this.
QuoteI have no doubt that Putin and his generals have considered all of these actions before going to war and have contingency plans in place.
I'm not so sure. No, they're not that stupid as to not consider contingencies, but perhaps they are that arrogant. Much as Tsarist Russia assumed they'd easily defeat Japan in 1905.
QuoteThe weakness of the USA is the assumption that money can solve all problems. It did not work in Afghanistan and now as a final tantrum we are talking about stealing Afghan assets in the USA and giving it away. The Taliban likely are not worried about even having a stock market but they still are in power.
Afghanistan and Russia are pretty different. Russia is a proper nation-state, Afghanistan is more like a territory ungovernable by almost anyone, Russia is vastly more developed than Afghanistan, Russians are overwhelmingly not fundamentalists, etc.
Quote
The Russians are in this to win. Brace yourselves.
So are some of the Ukrainians. Lavrov may claim Russia has never negotiated under pressure, but Brest-Litovsk and the peace of 1905 are counterexamples.
"...the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one."
--Henry Kissinger, 2014
Not to demonize, he's done that to himself, but to surface another awful what-if...never taking his capacities for cunning for granted.
What chance is there (honestly not knowing) that all that business about first marching into Chernobyl, then taking another reactor site, was about assembling ground-level nuclear missiles in situ?
I don't know of it's even possible, but the comment he made a week ago about using nuclear weapons could have been a kind of out-loud signaling...
It seemed out of context and inexplicable at the time, and no further such action has apparently been taken...so I could easily be adding 2 and 2 together and getting five, but while thinking of something else, the lateral possibility just floated up in my mind....if the other parts were already assembled they could be brought in, and loaded, and set up ready to go.
It could also explain why the electricity turn-off doesn't seem to matter to them, because, not only would the old core be cool enough, but if the active matter has been harvested, the danger could be non-existant from the plant...while now existing in transferable form elsewhere.
Complementary to this possibly farfelou ides, is the comment made by an interviewee today:
"Putin is like a spoiled brat, and now he's got everyone so afraid he's gonna hold his breath or have a tantrum that they're not even doing what they can against him, or looking out for themselves....
"Escalation happened when he marched troops across the border."
M.
Quote from: dismalist on March 03, 2022, 05:06:11 PM
An interesting analogy to the Ukraine invasion was cited on another blog -- the Winter War.
Here is the very illuminating and intelligent Twitter thread by a Finn https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184 (https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184)
There is also an informative and moving video about the Winter War, Fire and Ice, made by the BBC, if I recall, but put on You Tube by Finnish television
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s)
Yup, the Finns holding out against the Soviets is indeed an interesting analogy. This video is very recent
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-commander-tank-convoy-ambush-drone-footage-ukraine-war-1686750 (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-commander-tank-convoy-ambush-drone-footage-ukraine-war-1686750)
Competence matters.
Woo-woo, weird.
Maybe my lateral thought wasn't so far-off...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-sees-gold-in-ukraine-nuclear-plants-chernobyl-reactor-fuel-waste-disposal-11646946568
Not for bombs, per se, but the harvesting idea may be afloat after all....
M.
Quote from: dismalist on March 09, 2022, 04:55:57 PM
"...the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one."
--Henry Kissinger, 2014
While we are sickened seeing what the citizens of Ukraine have been enduring (or did endure prior to being slaughtered by war) Ukraine has not been the free society we have been led to believe. In terms of freedom and human rights, and corruption, approximately like Russia, according to this. Many political parties have been outlawed.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2022/04/06/ukraine_is_not_a_symbol_of_freedom_and_democracy_566962.html
I'm not aware of any publicly available analysis from before the war that predicted Kyiv holding out for a month (let alone a Russian retreat of any form) or that Russia wouldn't have air supremacy by now, let alone Ukraine being able to strike Russian territory from the air. Also, Russia admits to 3+ k deaths - this is an order of magnitude more than the average monthly rate of Soviet deaths in Afghanistan, and of course the USSR had a bigger population - and actually captured Kabul. It seems that, far from being among the top armed forces in the world, having nuclear weapons is the only thing that distinguishes the Russian military from a third-rate military.
Quote from: mamselle on March 09, 2022, 09:18:03 PM
Not to demonize, he's done that to himself, but to surface another awful what-if...never taking his capacities for cunning for granted.
What chance is there (honestly not knowing) that all that business about first marching into Chernobyl, then taking another reactor site, was about assembling ground-level nuclear missiles in situ?
I don't know of it's even possible, but the comment he made a week ago about using nuclear weapons could have been a kind of out-loud signaling...
The degree of enrichment required for nuclear weapons is much higher than for fuel, and enriching it further to reach that degree is hard. They could build a radiological weapon (dirty bomb), of course, but there's little obvious advantage in doing so.
Thanks for taking the question seriously and replying.
Obviously, I didn't know enough to know if it was even a possibility, and now they've taken off (I suspect for the moment, I only trust them to have third and fourth motives in mind...) but at least that is less an issue.
Some speculation has also arisen that Putin has thyroid cancer. The MD seen with him is a specialist in that, and apparently the question has been raised before.
And Zelensky addressed Russian citizens most recently:
https://youtu.be/P72_DNt_Btg
My daily prayers: Stop Putin. End the war. Keep Z. alive. Free Ukraine.
M.
No problem. Expanding a little on my reply, they'd need to set up ultracentrifuges, etc, to enrich fuel-grade uranium to weapons grade enrichment - that's not something that can easily or quickly be set up, especially on a battlefield I'd imagine. I suspect taking any such materials was an afterthought or a secondary objective, rather than part of a battle plan. I can't think of anything else of value from the reactor itself - the technology used there has been obsolete for a long time. I'd guess it's more about location, being a convenient point both close to the Belarusian border and in the middle of northwestern Ukraine.
There are various reports that the Russians dug up trenches in the Red Forest, one of the most radioactive outdoors places on the planet (even plant life, which is far more resistant to radioactivity than animal life, died out and has not recovered). Given the likely consequences to Russian soldiers and officers who were there, and that these are WWI tactics, it doesn't look exactly competent. A combo of shockingly poor performance from Russia, excellent performance of Western weapons, and Ukrainian heroism have turned this into what looks in some ways like a repeat of 1905. Ukraine could still lose, of course, but I don't see any plausible outcome that doesn't weaken Russia. Even a repeat of military spending collapsing the Soviet economy could happen - the estimates I've seen is that Russia has lost of the order of thousands of tanks, and I've seen estimates of the cost of a tank being in the tens of millions of dollars - meaning replacing the lost tanks alone would cost of the order of tens of billions of dollars - not a small burden on an economy that before sanctions was in the same ballpark as Mexico and Brazil.
Quote from: dismalist on March 03, 2022, 05:06:11 PM
An interesting analogy to the Ukraine invasion was cited on another blog -- the Winter War.
Here is the very illuminating and intelligent Twitter thread by a Finn https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184 (https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184)
There is also an informative and moving video about the Winter War, Fire and Ice, made by the BBC, if I recall, but put on You Tube by Finnish television
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s)
Here is a more complete version of the BBC film about the Winter War:
Quotehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_-JATOVHNI
Especially the beginning. All very poignant.
Now there is Mark Felton's explanation, shorter and with maps
Quotehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkxbDwsJo38
The parallels to Ukraine are striking
Quote from: dismalist on April 22, 2022, 04:22:32 PM
Quote from: dismalist on March 03, 2022, 05:06:11 PM
An interesting analogy to the Ukraine invasion was cited on another blog -- the Winter War.
Here is the very illuminating and intelligent Twitter thread by a Finn https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184 (https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989087700701184)
There is also an informative and moving video about the Winter War, Fire and Ice, made by the BBC, if I recall, but put on You Tube by Finnish television
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR2FqMUVZzc&t=2s)
Here is a more complete version of the BBC film about the Winter War:
Quotehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_-JATOVHNI
Especially the beginning. All very poignant.
Now there is Mark Felton's explanation, shorter and with maps
Quotehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkxbDwsJo38
The parallels to Ukraine are striking
And perhaps a bit of the Spanish Civil War?
Russians are being killed at over an order of magnitude the rate of Soviets in Afghanistan, or Americans in Vietnam, and about two orders of magnitude the rate of Americans in Afghanistan. Russia has a significantly smaller population than either the US or the USSR and was in demographic decline even before the war (and even before the pandemic), of course, and these losses include elite units taking heavy losses, and high-ranking officers. Add in gargantuan losses of tanks and so forth, and the Russian inability to replace tanks and warships due to the effect of sanctions, and it is clear the war is flatly, plainly unsustainable for Russia. Ukrainian sources are claiming today to have destroyed a Russian command center, killing two Russian generals and severely wounding a third.
At this point, I'm willing to say that Russia, far from being a major global military player, is just Argentina with nukes - a military very effective at committing atrocities, but unable to fight against even somewhat modern armed forces with the will to stand and fight; a military hollowed out by corruption, nepotism, sycophancy, inefficiency, and the hubris and incompetence of its leadership.
Yup, Stockmann, yup.
Have been totally surprised.
Yes, but what does it take to make them STOP, and can it please happen while there are people left alive in Ukraine to do the re-building?
All the rhetoric means nothing as long as innocent civilians and their defenders are piling up in unmarked graves and body bags.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on April 23, 2022, 06:01:50 PM
Yes, but what does it take to make them STOP, and can it please happen while there are people left alive in Ukraine to do the re-building?
All the rhetoric means nothing as long as innocent civilians and their defenders are piling up in unmarked graves and body bags.
M.
si vis pacem, para bellum
Looking like he won the war is now existential for Putin. He will end up popping a few small nukes on Kiev to do so. China will take advantage of the situation to turn Russia into a big North Korea, with oil they can buy on the cheap.
The time to stop this war was 30 years ago, when we could have dumped a few hundred billion dollars in aid to Russia to build a modern economy. But we were too cheap.
Actually, efforts were made to revisit the economic structure of Russia as soon as the USSR was disbanded.
Very sorry to say, two of those sent to help made oligarchs of themselves and ruined the whole thing.
Watching, it felt like Q by the pool in the first Star Trek movie.
"Oops, there was your chance for life..."
M.
No, no, no people. The economic stuff sounds like Lyndon Johnson trying to bribe the North Vietnamese with a Tennessee Valley Authority project.
Putin said at the annual Munich Security Conference in 2008 that NATO could not go any further. Then he stole Crimea in 2014. Ukraine said let's be part of NATO. The West said -- what?
There's nothing strange with any of this. That's how countries behave.
What is wrong for the past is that the West has had no policy to deal with Russia. Russia is not going away and it will not stay militarily weak. Demonizing Putin is not a policy for dealing with Russia, it's an excuse for not having one.
Now that there is a war, only helping Ukraine helps -- Ukraine.
Tragedy it's come to this. We will never learn whether this war could have been prevented.
Well, actually, there was a program, but it was derailed by greed. It died a-borning.
But the situation now, is, yes....end the war, and save Ukraine, that's all.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on April 23, 2022, 07:40:57 PM
Well, actually, there was a program, but it was derailed by greed. It died a-borning.
But the situation now, is, yes....end the war, and save Ukraine, that's all.
M.
Nay, nay, nay! Fuel the war to save Ukraine.
I know it's tough to get one's head around this. War rots, but once in, ya gotta win.
si vis pacem, para bellum
I do see that, as well, of course.
But things could have also been different, that's all.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on April 23, 2022, 08:16:21 PM
I do see that, as well, of course.
But things could have also been different, that's all.
M.
We agree.
Quote from: mamselle on April 23, 2022, 07:40:57 PM
Well, actually, there was a program, but it was derailed by greed. It died a-borning.
There was a program. It was at least an order of magnitude too small.
Quote from: dismalist on April 23, 2022, 07:37:38 PM
Russia is not going away and it will not stay militarily weak.
I'm not sure about the latter. The cost of replacing Russian stuff that's been used up or destroyed must be at least in the hundreds of billions of dollars (esp. considering Russian inefficiency and corruption), and the sanctions have apparently crippled Russia's ability to build tanks or warships - Russia had a Brazilian-style economy prior to sanctions; add a shrinking, aging population (less canon fodder, less money) and that the world will continue to move away from hydrocarbons, and Russia's prospects of recovery don't look good.
I think this is a pretty major military realignment - not just Russia looking weak for all the world to see, but also showcasing that, militarily, Turkey and Poland matter more in Eastern Europe than Germany and France.
Quote from: quasihumanist on April 23, 2022, 09:41:36 PM
Quote from: mamselle on April 23, 2022, 07:40:57 PM
Well, actually, there was a program, but it was derailed by greed. It died a-borning.
There was a program. It was at least an order of magnitude too small.
If it had worked, China would be almost surrounded by prosperous, allied democracies.
Up-thread I lamented that we did not have a policy toward Russia. Well, we have one now: Russia is to be weakened!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/russia-weakedend-lloyd-austin-ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/russia-weakedend-lloyd-austin-ukraine)
Please be cognizant of Charlie XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler. It's OK, though, if your name is Genghis Khan.
This may even be a good idea. I just hope everybody understands that the stakes in this game with uncertain outcome just went up.
Quote from: dismalist on April 28, 2022, 01:50:25 PM
Please be cognizant of Charlie XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler. It's OK, though, if your name is Genghis Khan.
You forget the Kaiser - in WWI, Russia was defeated by a country that was itself defeated - as well as the Japanese in 1905 and, of course, Afghanistan. Above, all, the Cold War.
However, I don't think there is much precedent in Russia's history for starting a war of aggression, at a time of its choosing, and it going so badly so fast (1905 I guess is perhaps the nearest analogue). The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (or the American invasion, for that matter) was a brilliant success in comparison. Other countries have started wars of aggression they were completely unprepared for and that were catastrophic almost from the word go, but they weren't even regional powers at the time (Paraguay starting the War of the Triple Alliance, the Khmer Rouge vs. Vietnam). Maybe Mussolini's invasion of Greece?
I think the nearest analogue in a wider context isn't anything from Russia's past, but rather Imperial Spain - and I'm thinking this could be the equivalent of 1898. Just as Spain's pathetic performance then liquidated what was left of the empire, Russia's shockingly bad performance may well finish Russia as even a regional power. Like Imperial Spain, Russian decline has been very long (pretty much going on at least since 1905, except of course for victory in WWII). Or perhaps another analogue is France, and Ukraine could be Russia's Algeria - without France's wealth, of course.
Quote from: Stockmann on April 28, 2022, 04:13:23 PM
Quote from: dismalist on April 28, 2022, 01:50:25 PM
Please be cognizant of Charlie XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler. It's OK, though, if your name is Genghis Khan.
You forget the Kaiser - in WWI, Russia was defeated by a country that was itself defeated - as well as the Japanese in 1905 and, of course, Afghanistan. Above, all, the Cold War.
However, I don't think there is much precedent in Russia's history for starting a war of aggression, at a time of its choosing, and it going so badly so fast (1905 I guess is perhaps the nearest analogue). The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (or the American invasion, for that matter) was a brilliant success in comparison. Other countries have started wars of aggression they were completely unprepared for and that were catastrophic almost from the word go, but they weren't even regional powers at the time (Paraguay starting the War of the Triple Alliance, the Khmer Rouge vs. Vietnam). Maybe Mussolini's invasion of Greece?
I think the nearest analogue in a wider context isn't anything from Russia's past, but rather Imperial Spain - and I'm thinking this could be the equivalent of 1898. Just as Spain's pathetic performance then liquidated what was left of the empire, Russia's shockingly bad performance may well finish Russia as even a regional power. Like Imperial Spain, Russian decline has been very long (pretty much going on at least since 1905, except of course for victory in WWII). Or perhaps another analogue is France, and Ukraine could be Russia's Algeria - without France's wealth, of course.
Aaah, Stockmann, good story! I like.
Let's stick to Russia for analogies for the moment. The 1905 and WW I episodes certainly count, but Russia fell from within. [Hitler counted on that happening again.] It may very well go this way this time, or it may not. What are we willing to stake on that gamble? If the palpable risk aversion on the Covid thread on this board is any indication, nobody has the appetite for a real war. Quickie, cheapy, yes, but that's what's not certain.
US policy just raised the stakes. Let us not drift into it, eyes wide open.
Quote from: dismalist on April 28, 2022, 04:36:25 PM
Quote from: Stockmann on April 28, 2022, 04:13:23 PM
Quote from: dismalist on April 28, 2022, 01:50:25 PM
Please be cognizant of Charlie XII, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler. It's OK, though, if your name is Genghis Khan.
You forget the Kaiser - in WWI, Russia was defeated by a country that was itself defeated - as well as the Japanese in 1905 and, of course, Afghanistan. Above, all, the Cold War.
However, I don't think there is much precedent in Russia's history for starting a war of aggression, at a time of its choosing, and it going so badly so fast (1905 I guess is perhaps the nearest analogue). The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (or the American invasion, for that matter) was a brilliant success in comparison. Other countries have started wars of aggression they were completely unprepared for and that were catastrophic almost from the word go, but they weren't even regional powers at the time (Paraguay starting the War of the Triple Alliance, the Khmer Rouge vs. Vietnam). Maybe Mussolini's invasion of Greece?
I think the nearest analogue in a wider context isn't anything from Russia's past, but rather Imperial Spain - and I'm thinking this could be the equivalent of 1898. Just as Spain's pathetic performance then liquidated what was left of the empire, Russia's shockingly bad performance may well finish Russia as even a regional power. Like Imperial Spain, Russian decline has been very long (pretty much going on at least since 1905, except of course for victory in WWII). Or perhaps another analogue is France, and Ukraine could be Russia's Algeria - without France's wealth, of course.
Aaah, Stockmann, good story! I like.
Let's stick to Russia for analogies for the moment. The 1905 and WW I episodes certainly count, but Russia fell from within. [Hitler counted on that happening again.] It may very well go this way this time, or it may not. What are we willing to stake on that gamble? If the palpable risk aversion on the Covid thread on this board is any indication, nobody has the appetite for a real war. Quickie, cheapy, yes, but that's what's not certain.
US policy just raised the stakes. Let us not drift into it, eyes wide open.
I am neither a historian nor a student of history. I am very troubled by the possibility of direct conflict with Putin. OTOH, I am very troubled by the possibility that Putin will move against other countries. Stopping him in Ukraine seems to be a necessity. I don't think we are drifting into direct conflict, however, though I am not sure I can provide logical support for that statement.
I'm not belligerent as a general rule, but if he isn't stopped somehow, soon, completely, ther will be no Ukraine left to save.
We can do better than turning this into a media talk show.
M.
Viewpoint: Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61348287 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61348287)
Ukrainian victories are important, but stopping the whole thing is still the main necessity.
Analysis of the effects of various stratagems, important as they all are, is still only back-patting until the tanks turn around and go home and the shelling stops.
Full STOP.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on May 09, 2022, 01:32:48 PM
Ukrainian victories are important, but stopping the whole thing is still the main necessity.
Analysis of the effects of various stratagems, important as they all are, is still only back-patting until the tanks turn around and go home and the shelling stops.
Full STOP.
M.
The
only way of stopping this idiocy is Ukrainian victory after Ukrainian victory.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Pax in terra choreagibus.
Ballo, non bello, parare.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on May 09, 2022, 04:06:11 PM
Pax in terra choreagibus.
Ballo, non bello, parare.
M.
Having nice thoughts, even in Latin, won't do the trick.
Gotta have power, I mean the gun stuff.
It was more meant as a jussive construction although it's in the infinitive.
I'm recalling Zalensky's joyful time in DWTS and praying he gets to return to that life, or something like it, soon.
I know about the regrettably necessary bullets....have I not been calling for a no-fly zone from the start?
It's useful to keep things in perspective...
M.
Quote from: mamselle on May 10, 2022, 02:11:31 AM
It was more meant as a jussive construction although it's in the infinitive.
I'm recalling Zalensky's joyful time in DWTS and praying he gets to return to that life, or something like it, soon.
I know about the regrettably necessary bullets....have I not been calling for a no-fly zone from the start?
It's useful to keep things in perspective...
M.
No-fly-zones are great after your opponent has been defeated. A US imposed no-fly-zone over Ukraine would strongly, strongly risk a US
cum Nato -- Russia war. Is that what anybody wants? I think not.