I wonder if we can discuss this without vitriol? I wonder what it means for the election, for governance over the next few weeks? Will the 25th amendment come into play?
Just when you thought this year could not get any crazier. ..,,
I think another big What If here is whether Biden caught it during the debate. There are so many ways this all could result in chaos, or I should say, even more chaos.
I've seen a couple left wing outlets already bring up the possible major downside of saying the wrong thing about this. No matter what Trump's behavior leading to contracting the virus, it will only take one prominent lefty saying they're glad, he brought it on himself, etc. to cause a huge public backlash.
By the way, the answer to your question is undoubtedly "no."
Fivethirtyeight had a feature during the democratic primaries about what would happen if a candidate died after the nominating convention but before the election (https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-happens-if-a-nominee-dies-before-the-general-election/). Or even after the election! They were talking about it in the context of the leading candidates for both parties being elderly during a pandemic that disproportionately kills older people, and focusing on Biden rather than Trump--but of course the mechanics are the same for both nominees. Skip to 2.40 or so for the situation in which a candidate dies after being nominated but before the election (and then they move on to what if a candidate dies after the election.)
My reactions are as follows:
1. If Trump dies from this, who will Republicans put on the ballot? Pence? Pence is kind of a non-entity among the really enthusiastic Trump supporters. But on the other hand, he might win back the support of the Mitt Romneys who have decided to support Biden. Will that be enough to make a difference? Or if he gets really sick, it he might still be alive on election day (because Covid takes several weeks to kill you), but that would probably depress enthusiasm among his base.
2. Don't something like 20% of people not even show symptoms? Maybe he won't actually get sick at all.
I do not wish anyone ill health or death. I hope they both recover, as I would hope that for anyone.
It struck me how, again, however, that parallels with Boris Johnson keep appearing.
M.
I hope Trump and Biden don't die. However, both Pence and Harris would be better alternatives, as I expect their debate to illustrate.
If Trump dies or is on a ventilator by election day, the national party committee selects Pence as Trump's replacement for the election. The election proceeds using the existing ballots. Unbound GOP electors simply select Pence. Bound GOP electors either get some legal out to select Pence or there is a legal ruling that their votes for Trump in reality go to Pence. But none of this matters if Biden wins the electoral college.
Whether Trump becomes symptomatic or not, infection gives him a psychological excuse for abandoning the pretense of competing in an election he is likely to lose. His campaign was interrupted through no fault of his own, if it wasn't for the China virus he would have won re-election.
Since the ballots would still say Trump, it would seem that everything could proceed as if he were alive, and then after the electors vote (assuming he wins, which is a huge assumption) , the 20th amendment kicks in, and Pence is inaugurated. Of course, the part would probably make some sort of statement completely backing Pence, though they would not be legally bound by any of this technically, until electors officially give results. Not federal law anyway.
Quote from: financeguy on October 02, 2020, 02:51:39 AM
I've seen a couple left wing outlets already bring up the possible major downside of saying the wrong thing about this. No matter what Trump's behavior leading to contracting the virus, it will only take one prominent lefty saying they're glad, he brought it on himself, etc. to cause a huge public backlash.
By the way, the answer to your question is undoubtedly "no."
I didn't want him to win, but I didn't want him get put out of business this way.
Watching FOX channel and Sean Hannity last night. He interviewed Trump remotely. It is absolutely true that Trump has disavowed KKK and white supremacy groups. He's on camera emphatically saying it.
Everyone should watch the news of the people they feel they don't with to see what the conversations are. We might be surprised.
So long as he's healthy enough to talk and such, he'll probably do remote campaign events, etc. So, I doubt he's really totally out of commission unless he gets very sick.
Of course, he can't do anything live for at least two weeks, probably longer. If it looks like he's asymptomatic, then they probably will just delay events. If he starts to get sick, probably everything will be switched to completely remote for the rest of the election season.
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 02, 2020, 06:35:09 AM
So long as he's healthy enough to talk and such, he'll probably do remote campaign events, etc. So, I doubt he's really totally out of commission unless he gets very sick.
Of course, he can't do anything live for at least two weeks, probably longer. If it looks like he's asymptomatic, then they probably will just delay events. If he starts to get sick, probably everything will be switched to completely remote for the rest of the election season.
Apparently he is symptomatic, but the report is that symptoms are cold like at the moment.
It just occurs to me that a second debate is even less likely now. Another small victory for COVID.
He's not an especially healthy man, and clearly has co-morbidities. There's a good chance his illness will be fairly serious. And if I'm being honest, there's nothing but vitriol in my heart, thoughts, and prayers.
I think we can expect more whacko miracle cures tweeted out. We can expect him to bow out of the next debate, at the very least. And I expect calls to postpone the election to start getting very loud in some quarters in a week or so.
No public appearances. His hair and makeup people can't get to him to foof him up until he is out of quarantine.
It will be interesting to see how the public takes it. Will people become sympathetic and, if so, will his positives go up? Or will they say something like "Trump didn't take the virus seriously and so it is his own fault"?
In any case, it takes him out of the game for at least a few weeks, which may be good for him in a way (Trump's numbers usually go up when he stays out of the news) but also prevents him from kicking an already struggling campaign into higher gear.
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 02, 2020, 08:16:32 AM
In any case, it takes him out of the game for at least a few weeks, which may be good for him in a way (Trump's numbers usually go up when he stays out of the news) but also prevents him from kicking an already struggling campaign into higher gear.
Oh? Does COVID affect one's tweeting hand?
Quote from: writingprof on October 02, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 02, 2020, 08:16:32 AM
In any case, it takes him out of the game for at least a few weeks, which may be good for him in a way (Trump's numbers usually go up when he stays out of the news) but also prevents him from kicking an already struggling campaign into higher gear.
Oh? Does COVID affect one's tweeting hand?
Ha, I'm sure he'll still be tweeting up a storm, but he won't be able to hold rallies, have a second debate, make public appearances in swing states, or appear in press conferences. And there is some possibility that he has severe symptoms, including fatigue, that affect his tweeting.
Again, being in the news less frequently may be good for him politically.
I attended a Zoom talk By Dr. Fauci this week. So he's my source for the following facts:
80% of cases have no/mild/moderate symptoms. But, Trump ticks a whole bunch of the risk factor boxes for severe disease. Age, obesity, likely high blood pressure and or cholesterol.
The average incubation period is 5 days, so we should have a good sense by the end of next week if Joe was infected as well.
Also in terms of the election, voting has already begun. I sent my ballot back last week. So this could get very interesting.
A family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
Quote from: fourhats on October 02, 2020, 08:48:04 AM
A family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
Trump supporter or Biden supporter?
Quote from: mythbuster on October 02, 2020, 08:44:51 AM
I attended a Zoom talk By Dr. Fauci this week. So he's my source for the following facts:
80% of cases have no/mild/moderate symptoms. But, Trump ticks a whole bunch of the risk factor boxes for severe disease. Age, obesity, likely high blood pressure and or cholesterol.
The average incubation period is 5 days, so we should have a good sense by the end of next week if Joe was infected as well.
Also in terms of the election, voting has already begun. I sent my ballot back last week. So this could get very interesting.
My strong sense is that this will not affect the election, except Trump won't have quite as many opportunities to delegitimize the process.
Quote from: fourhats on October 02, 2020, 08:48:04 AM
A family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
I've seen a lot of this on social media. People really need to get a grip.
Quote from: mythbuster on October 02, 2020, 08:44:51 AM
I attended a Zoom talk By Dr. Fauci this week. So he's my source for the following facts:
80% of cases have no/mild/moderate symptoms. But, Trump ticks a whole bunch of the risk factor boxes for severe disease. Age, obesity, likely high blood pressure and or cholesterol.
The average incubation period is 5 days, so we should have a good sense by the end of next week if Joe was infected as well.
Also in terms of the election, voting has already begun. I sent my ballot back last week. So this could get very interesting.
Plus he's probably had one or two TIAs/ischemic strokes in the last year, or has a degenerative neurological disease, given his motor skill/speech problems and not-fully-explained medical procedures.
I'm really hoping this is the last election in my lifetime that is dominated by old white men (at both national and state levels). Obama was, I think, 58 or 59 when he left office. Pence is currently 61. For every RBG, there are a dozen doddering grifters happy to take away my freedoms for personal gain. McConnell, for example, is 78.
Assuming he more or less recovers in two weeks, then I think the debates can just be reformatted and delayed a few days, or maybe just delayed and done in person, but with no audience, stricter distancing, etc. He will probably want some kind of forum. Biden will probably say something like "Its up to him, its his health, but my team will discuss the details with his"
I don't see how Trump gains from this if its fake, so therefore I conclude its real.
Of course if you just go by the theory that he wants utter chaos, he wants people discussing his potential demise, then, yeah, I suppose that's marginally plausible.
Its insane though, even for him.
So... Cheeto Jezus gets Covid and dies. Before passing on to the great golf course in the sky, he passes it on to Mike Pence. Pence gets sick and dies.
Hello President Pelosi!!
A person can dream, can' they???
We've had three straight elections before this one that weren't (totally) old white guys, and before that, although it was all white guys, they weren't always both old.
So, odds are that the next one will have some younger people, or some non-males, non-whites or a combination.
QuoteA family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
Trump supporter or Biden supporter?
Biden. I said I didn't see how lying about being infected could possibly help him with his base or undecideds, since he's so insistent about it going away, and holding maskless rallies, and insisting he won the debate.
I imagine that he has the best health care on the planet. I m sure that he has an unlimited supply of his qualaquin as well!
From what the president has indicated before, it is nothing worse than the flu, so he should be fine in a matter of days. I suppose that 'it will magically disappear' from his system in a few days anyway.
But with that out of my system, I do think that he has the best health care on the planet, so I am sure that he will not only survive, but I suspect that he is already taking whatever the top 3 or 4 treatments are. I suspect that the next debate may well go on as scheduled, though there may be a request for a delay to allow his handlers to work with him on trying to learn/practice a different technique (than the worst of 'reality' talk shows).
Get Well Soon, Mr. and Mrs. President!
Quote from: fourhats on October 02, 2020, 09:18:36 AM
QuoteA family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
Trump supporter or Biden supporter?
Biden. I said I didn't see how lying about being infected could possibly help him with his base or undecideds, since he's so insistent about it going away, and holding maskless rallies, and insisting he won the debate.
I agree. Infected makes him look even stupider and weaker than he already looked. And sociopaths love being the center of attention, which is what happens with a TV event like a "debate."
I wonder how eager he is now to inject some bleach and shine a SAD lamp down his ear.
Quote from: spork on October 02, 2020, 09:25:21 AM
Quote from: fourhats on October 02, 2020, 09:18:36 AM
QuoteA family member called me today and said they were sure he was lying about testing positive. They thought he was doing it to get out of the next debate. I disagreed, but they were adamant about it.
Trump supporter or Biden supporter?
Biden. I said I didn't see how lying about being infected could possibly help him with his base or undecideds, since he's so insistent about it going away, and holding maskless rallies, and insisting he won the debate.
I agree. Infected makes him look even stupider and weaker than he already looked. And sociopaths love being the center of attention, which is what happens with a TV event like a "debate."
Yep. And now that he can't make public appearances for a few weeks, he'll really be breaking his crayons.
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 02, 2020, 08:52:10 AM
My strong sense is that this will not affect the election, except Trump won't have quite as many opportunities to delegitimize the process.
Maybe. The R's have been working hard to undermine the voting process in their favor, long before DJT was even the party standard-bearer. Now he has been a lot more rabid and noisy and open about it, to the (unfortunate) support and execution of this by his base and party allies.
He will still be tweeting, which gives the R's cover to keep up with their ghastly momentum.
Still, theoretically, he won't be publicly visible, which may weaken his grip on the media and public's imagination.
If he gets too sick to tweet, who will take over his account and ghost-tweet for him? Stephen Miller?
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Yes. Schumer et al. are going to use it to try to delay the Barrett hearings. If there's a God, they won't succeed. So we'll know for sure one way or the other in a few weeks.
Wasn't there a Senate floor vote when one Senator was brought in in a stretcher?
Quote from: writingprof on October 02, 2020, 11:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Yes. Schumer et al. are going to use it to try to delay the Barrett hearings. If there's a God, they won't succeed. So we'll know for sure one way or the other in a few weeks.
If they achieve a delay = There is no god
If the Rs in the Senate majority get to apply their authority = GOD
I suspect your predictions don't follow from your hypothesis.
Quote from: writingprof on October 02, 2020, 11:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Yes. Schumer et al. are going to use it to try to delay the Barrett hearings. If there's a God, they won't succeed. So we'll know for sure one way or the other in a few weeks.
Given the Senators' ages and the number who have been in contact with people currently infected the confirmation vote could be held up due to lack of a quorum.
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:34:01 AM
Quote from: writingprof on October 02, 2020, 11:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Yes. Schumer et al. are going to use it to try to delay the Barrett hearings. If there's a God, they won't succeed. So we'll know for sure one way or the other in a few weeks.
Given the Senators' ages and the number who have been in contact with people currently infected the confirmation vote could be held up due to lack of a quorum.
I think that only happens if the Democrats boycott. A quorum in the Senate is 51. EA
In case you were wondering...
"For every 1,000 people in their mid-seventies or older who are infected, around 116 will die."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2
Quorum isn't an issue, but if Republicans have too few to constitute a majority because of COVID, they'll, at least for now, delay the vote. They'll still want a vote after the election, which could get tricky.
As noted earlier, quality and timing of intervention will probably help him more than age and weight hurt him. In either case, odds are in his favor.
Quote from: engineer_adrift on October 02, 2020, 11:44:30 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:34:01 AM
Quote from: writingprof on October 02, 2020, 11:08:36 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 02, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
Sen. Mike Lee was at the Barrett announcement, and now this also: https://fox59.com/news/notre-dame-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Yes. Schumer et al. are going to use it to try to delay the Barrett hearings. If there's a God, they won't succeed. So we'll know for sure one way or the other in a few weeks.
Given the Senators' ages and the number who have been in contact with people currently infected the confirmation vote could be held up due to lack of a quorum.
I think that only happens if the Democrats boycott. A quorum in the Senate is 51. EA
That is in fact what I meant. Three ill R's and all it takes is for the D's not to attend.
And, I meant this seriously. Far too many old Senators are not taking this seriously, and have been in close proximity to people at the WH.
Some are old, some are young, but it does look like a significant number have had, now have, or are likely to have COVID.
And, yup, I guess a few sick R's, and no D's is enough to close it, which is why they might be forced to try to delay it. Risky.
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 02, 2020, 11:55:12 AM
Quorum isn't an issue, but if Republicans have too few to constitute a majority because of COVID, they'll, at least for now, delay the vote. They'll still want a vote after the election, which could get tricky.
(Too lazy to Google) can the quarantined Senators vote by distance or do they have to be on the floor?
President Trump going to Walter Reed Medical Center.
Quote from: Cheerful on October 02, 2020, 02:19:53 PM
President Trump going to Walter Reed Medical Center.
An abundance of caution, folks! Nothing to see here! Keep moving along!
Quote from: spork on October 02, 2020, 02:37:34 PM
Quote from: Cheerful on October 02, 2020, 02:19:53 PM
President Trump going to Walter Reed Medical Center.
An abundance of caution, folks! Nothing to see here! Keep moving along!
Not funny. This is the President of the United States. Everyone knows this is very serious. Sounds like he's getting very sick very quickly. He has fever, etc. Has already had experimental treatment.
No, that's a line in an article about the hospitalization.
I had a similar reaction: it seriously understated the issues, and made it sound as if it was no big deal.
I didn't think Spork was saying it as his own viewpoint, but pointing it out.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 02:43:14 PM
No, that's a line in an article about the hospitalization.
I had a similar reaction: it seriously understated the issues, and made it sound as if it was no big deal.
I didn't think Spork was saying it as his own viewpoint, but pointing it out.
M.
OK, sorry. I'm upset. Whether I like the man personally or not, he is the President of my country and this is very troubling. I have loved ones his age with high-risk conditions.
There are national security issues as well in terms of what they officially say.
He'll be fine. I'm sorry, but it's true.
I am thinking of that pastor in Texas, Robert Henderson, who took credit for Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death because he had prayed the right kind of prayer:
...he led other pastors to pray for God to "shut the mouth of the lion" defending current abortion laws on the Supreme Court. "Well, guess what?" he said last Sunday. "Ruth Bader Ginsburg has passed away. .... That's no accident."
(https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article246002880.html#storylink=cpy)
Apparently he later retracted this, but the idea lives on that prominent figures become ill and/or die because right-wing clergy are praying for it. (I say right-wing because I don't see left-wing clergy making this claim).
I'm wondering, then, who prayed for Trump to become ill. Will the responsible party come on down?
Quote from: ciao_yall on October 02, 2020, 01:18:00 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 02, 2020, 11:55:12 AM
Quorum isn't an issue, but if Republicans have too few to constitute a majority because of COVID, they'll, at least for now, delay the vote. They'll still want a vote after the election, which could get tricky.
(Too lazy to Google) can the quarantined Senators vote by distance or do they have to be on the floor?
I took a nap and checked. For now, yes, they have to be on the floor.
So this could get interesting...
Quote from: ciao_yall on October 02, 2020, 07:03:26 PM
Quote from: ciao_yall on October 02, 2020, 01:18:00 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 02, 2020, 11:55:12 AM
Quorum isn't an issue, but if Republicans have too few to constitute a majority because of COVID, they'll, at least for now, delay the vote. They'll still want a vote after the election, which could get tricky.
(Too lazy to Google) can the quarantined Senators vote by distance or do they have to be on the floor?
I took a nap and checked. For now, yes, they have to be on the floor.
So this could get interesting...
McConnell has rejected (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/politics/house-remote-voting-pandemic-mcconnell/index.html) remote voting, but we all know he will reverse on a dime if that's what is needed to get the nomination through.
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
I think it's highly unlikely.
Quote from: evil_physics_witchcraft on October 02, 2020, 09:05:59 PM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
I think it's highly unlikely.
My house just had the identical conversation. Absolutive took Mamselle's view. I followed evil_physics_witchcraft.
Quote from: Cheerful on October 02, 2020, 02:39:27 PM
Quote from: spork on October 02, 2020, 02:37:34 PM
Quote from: Cheerful on October 02, 2020, 02:19:53 PM
President Trump going to Walter Reed Medical Center.
An abundance of caution, folks! Nothing to see here! Keep moving along!
Not funny. This is the President of the United States. Everyone knows this is very serious. Sounds like he's getting very sick very quickly. He has fever, etc. Has already had experimental treatment.
He's gotten a dose of antibodies as a precautionary measure. A treatment not available to the public.
I'd have less schadenfreude about him being infected if he and his minions had not tried to kick people like my wife out of the country for the last several years. I also hope he doesn't die while president because his white evangelical supporters would then elevate him to the status of a crucified messiah.
As for:
Quote from: ergative on October 03, 2020, 01:31:30 AM
Quote from: evil_physics_witchcraft on October 02, 2020, 09:05:59 PM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
I think it's highly unlikely.
My house just had the identical conversation. Absolutive took Mamselle's view. I followed evil_physics_witchcraft.
I also find it highly improbable that an elderly sociopath will suddenly develop empathy and compassion for others.
Quote from: spork on October 03, 2020, 03:49:45 AM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I also find it highly improbable that an elderly sociopath will suddenly develop empathy and compassion for others.
The man is seventy-four. He's had a cold before, perhaps even a bad cold, which is what this is.
In all probability, he may not feel it as much worse than the worst cold he's ever had, but it could be worse than that.
Probably best to just wait and see. I hope he gets beat in a month, but fair and square and without anyone being seriously ill.
As for transformations of character? I don't think so. White House protocols are likely the only thing to change.
Quote from: writingprof on October 03, 2020, 05:58:07 AM
Quote from: spork on October 03, 2020, 03:49:45 AM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I also find it highly improbable that an elderly sociopath will suddenly develop empathy and compassion for others.
The man is seventy-four. He's had a cold before, perhaps even a bad cold, which is what this is.
Ah yes, the common cold with its notoriously under appreciated death rate of about 1% (total) or 5% (age adjusted). (/sarcasm).
While it's quite likely that Trump (especially given his access to outstanding medical care) may experience this as a severe cold and be perfectly fine, it is highly irresponsible to compare COVID19 to the common cold, especially for an obese, 74 year old male, who has at least those three characteristics associated with worse outcomes.
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
My experience working in health care has been that if a genuine a**hole gets cancer and recovers, what emerges is still a genuine a**hole. Saint Paul on the road to Damascus changes are pretty much unheard of.
Really infuriating to read about how reckless the President and his circle have been, in terms of not wearing masks or social distancing, including after it became clear that people in his orbit were sick.
Add Fmr Gov. Christie and Kelley Anne Conway to the list.
It looks like the Saturday ceremony to announce the appointment of a justice to replace Ginsburg may have been a 'super spreader event'.
Hoping that they all recover quickly.
Quote from: clean on October 03, 2020, 09:30:57 AM
Add Fmr Gov. Christie and Kelley Anne Conway to the list.
It looks like the Saturday ceremony to announce the appointment of a justice to replace Ginsburg may have been a 'super spreader event'.
Hoping that they all recover quickly.
In addition to the hugging, lack of masks, etc., on Saturday, no one wore masks during the debate prep -- Trump and his circle were exposing each other to possible infection over four days.
Quote from: spork on October 03, 2020, 09:44:46 AM
Quote from: clean on October 03, 2020, 09:30:57 AM
Add Fmr Gov. Christie and Kelley Anne Conway to the list.
It looks like the Saturday ceremony to announce the appointment of a justice to replace Ginsburg may have been a 'super spreader event'.
Hoping that they all recover quickly.
In addition to the hugging, lack of masks, etc., on Saturday, no one wore masks during the debate prep -- Trump and his circle were exposing each other to possible infection over four days.
Yes. And Chris Christie was deeply involved in the debate prep.
Quote from: spork on October 03, 2020, 03:49:45 AM
He's gotten a dose of antibodies as a precautionary measure. A treatment not available to the public.
Not to take this thread on an FDA-rant tangent, but that's one thing I find extremely upsetting. Their approval process for the general public is extremely conservative, but when the goal is to try and save a specific patient, doctors know it's in the patient's best interest to try promising-but-not-yet-approved treatments. If you're POTUS or have close connections to a research hospital, you can bypass the approval process and increase your chances of survival -- while others are dying because regulators can't be sure that it really works until perhaps months or years after the pandemic is over.
Quote from: secundem_artem on October 03, 2020, 08:31:49 AM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
My experience working in health care has been that if a genuine a**hole gets cancer and recovers, what emerges is still a genuine a**hole. Saint Paul on the road to Damascus changes are pretty much unheard of.
I'd look at it from the perspective of mathematical probability. three outcomes are possible. A person may get gravely ill and then recover and be imbued with a lasting sense of contentment and gratitude. Or he may be bitter and go around thinking 'why did a good person like get sick instead one of those A-holes that I know?' Or he may move on, forget the whole deal. With Trump, being an active older guy, not given to introspection, I'd guess the latter.
Quote from: onthefringe on October 03, 2020, 07:47:58 AM
Quote from: writingprof on October 03, 2020, 05:58:07 AM
The man is seventy-four. He's had a cold before, perhaps even a bad cold, which is what this is.
It is highly irresponsible to compare COVID19 to the common cold.
Stupid? Perhaps. Inaccurate? I'm open to persuasion. But irresponsible? That's ridiculous . . . unless people in the world are taking their behavioral cues from what I write on these fora, which seems unlikely.
I have no idea how you could claim accuracy by saying the risk is no worse than that of a bad cold for someone in his 70s. Based on the date from China, the fatality rate for someone in the 70-79% age group is 9.8%. (https://www.vox.com/2020/10/2/21498328/trump-covid-19-risk-factors) Even if you claimed that China was somehow anomalous, and the death rate is only half that, that would be 4.9%, whereas the death rate for "a bad cold" is pretty much 0%. Furthermore, no president has been put on oxygen and then helicoptered to spend several days at the hospital for a bad cold. In so far as it's an academic's responsibility to report facts accurately, saying that COVID-19 is no worse than a bad cold for a 74-year-old is irresponsible.
Quote from: Hegemony on October 03, 2020, 02:42:19 PM
I have no idea how you could claim accuracy by saying the risk is no worse than that of a bad cold for someone in his 70s. Based on the date from China, the fatality rate for someone in the 70-79% age group is 9.8%. (https://www.vox.com/2020/10/2/21498328/trump-covid-19-risk-factors) Even if you claimed that China was somehow anomalous, and the death rate is only half that, that would be 4.9%, whereas the death rate for "a bad cold" is pretty much 0%. Furthermore, no president has been put on oxygen and then helicoptered to spend several days at the hospital for a bad cold. In so far as it's an academic's responsibility to report facts accurately, saying that COVID-19 is no worse than a bad cold for a 74-year-old is irresponsible.
It's a shame, too, because I was such a responsible child, always making my own bed, remembering assignments, taking care of my toys, et cetera. Where did I go wrong?
You tell us. I can't figure out why someone would be petulantly ignorant.
Quote from: pigou on October 03, 2020, 10:21:34 AM
Quote from: spork on October 03, 2020, 03:49:45 AM
He's gotten a dose of antibodies as a precautionary measure. A treatment not available to the public.
Not to take this thread on an FDA-rant tangent, but that's one thing I find extremely upsetting. Their approval process for the general public is extremely conservative, but when the goal is to try and save a specific patient, doctors know it's in the patient's best interest to try promising-but-not-yet-approved treatments. If you're POTUS or have close connections to a research hospital, you can bypass the approval process and increase your chances of survival -- while others are dying because regulators can't be sure that it really works until perhaps months or years after the pandemic is over.
With unproven treatments, the probabilities go in both ways. If this had happened in May, Trump would have been chugging hydroxychloroquine, and I seem to recall that some studies show it actually hurts more than it helps.
I extend to him and Melanie the same care and concern he extended to the Prisoner of War and she extended to migrant children separated from their parents.
Quote from: nebo113 on October 04, 2020, 06:30:20 AM
I extend to him and Melanie the same care and concern he extended to the Prisoner of War and she extended to migrant children separated from their parents.
Truth be told, I'm getting all the medication my doctor prescribes through my HMO, and I'll take it, even if others don't have the same security. It's all about me.
Why is Vice President Pence not in DC? In my opinion, given the circumstances, he is in too important a position to be traveling at this time.
I was wondering about him this AM, too.
M.
Well, the White House appears to be a COVID hotspot — perhaps he feels safer somewhere else.
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 04, 2020, 08:00:21 AM
Why is Vice President Pence not in DC? In my opinion, given the circumstances, he is in too important a position to be traveling at this time.
Campaigning is more important than governing. And he doesn't need to be in DC to assume the presidency (or the powers thereof) because of the 25th Amendment.
Maybe he doesn't need to be in WDC, per se, but travel is risky at the best of times; it might be wise to mitigate that risk atop all the others.
M.
Pence is campaigning because he's been ordered to do so by his cult leader....
Quote from: secundem_artem on October 03, 2020, 08:31:49 AM
Quote from: mamselle on October 02, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
It just struck me...I wonder if he were sick before the debates, maybe even knew or suspected it.
That might explain the even-more-than-usual level of confusion and anger...either onset of feverish confusion (afebrile disease/dementia is common at his age) or just fury at being mortal, and infected...or some of both.
I also realized that my hope is he will come out of it redeemed and with at least something like a transformed sense of life, empathy and generosity of spirit.
I'd hoped something similar for Boris Johnson, but it doesn't seem to have happened, so I am looking at the likelihood of metanoia as uncertain, of course.
But it's at least a possibility worth hoping for.
M.
Saint Paul on the road to Damascus changes are pretty much unheard of.
I've seen changes on that scale in people that I know. It
can happen.
But yes, it's exceedingly rare to see it in anybody who is influential and in the public eye. They've already got it made in this world, so what do they need God for? And sadly the President, whatever the hopes of some of his supporters and more generous-minded detractors, has shown overwhelming evidence of having this kind of attitude.
Yes, if they don't see a reason to change, metanoia is less likely, I agree.
But if I'm going to put my prayers in any direction, that seems like the wisest and best thing to pray for.
In re: the discussion on Pence, this showed up in my newsfeed this AM:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/04/president-pelosi-pence-shrugs-off-covid-risk-426219
And then I saw this:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/05/politics/trump-secret-service-trip/index.html
Reading the statement at the end,
"I'd have called security and asked for a psych eval to determine their mental health status and decision-making capacity,"
I thought "....would that someone had done that in 2016...."
M.
The President says he's checking out at 6:30. In my opinion this is a seriously bad idea. He talked about how much energy he has, but that pretty much ALWAYS happens when you have a hefty dose of steroids.
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 05, 2020, 12:13:19 PM
The President says he's checking out at 6:30. In my opinion this is a seriously bad idea. He talked about how much energy he has, but that pretty much ALWAYS happens when you have a hefty dose of steroids.
Yes, and now he is telling everyone that it's "no big deal" and that you shouldn't let Covid dominate your life. Great ....
Also, he is saying that he was brave to get Covid (you know instead of "cowering in his basement" like Biden). He is shameless. Also, clearly has a personality disorder. Plain as day.
We'll see if he's readmitted in a few days/a week. The roller-coaster pattern seems to be pretty common. If he needs to be readmitted, he's probably in real trouble.
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on October 05, 2020, 02:03:46 PM
We'll see if he's readmitted in a few days/a week. The roller-coaster pattern seems to be pretty common. If he needs to be readmitted, he's probably in real trouble.
Thoughts and prayers ....
In case anyone is curious, here is Boris Johnson's CV timeline. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/timeline-boris-johnson-and-coronavirus) His downturn came on the 11th day after diagnosis. Of course, treatments have improved since then and Trump got all of them, so ...
Also worth remembering that he's not really being "discharged", since they're installing all that medical equipment in the WH.
As for thoughts and prayers, I have nothing kind to say, so I'll stay mum.
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on October 05, 2020, 02:56:02 PM
Also worth remembering that he's not really being "discharged", since they're installing all that medical equipment in the WH.
As for thoughts and prayers, I have nothing kind to say, so I'll stay mum.
Notice, I didn't say what the thoughts and prayers were for ...
Quote from: Treehugger on October 05, 2020, 04:49:39 PM
Quote from: Parasaurolophus on October 05, 2020, 02:56:02 PM
Also worth remembering that he's not really being "discharged", since they're installing all that medical equipment in the WH.
As for thoughts and prayers, I have nothing kind to say, so I'll stay mum.
Notice, I didn't say what the thoughts and prayers were for ...
I recall years ago under GWBush it was reported that an ISIS terrosist had been killed in a shootout by USA gov't agents. They were 90% sure it was the man they thought it was. They didn't say 'Joy, he's dead.' They said 'if it's him obviously it would be a very good thing if he were out of business.'
I suppose if you prayed for the demise of a toxic leader, it means you consider us at war in some sense.
My problem with hating Trump is while he can be combative, rude and obnoxious he is more on the right side of some our current controversies than may others who should know better. Perhaps he was alway to arrogant to be taken in by the left's fixations.
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
+1
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 05, 2020, 12:13:19 PM
He talked about how much energy he has, but that pretty much ALWAYS happens when you have a hefty dose of steroids.
Biden and his debate-prep team couldn't agree more.
Quote from: Larimar on October 06, 2020, 04:39:29 AM
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
+1
I agree too. Actually, I think a serious, but non-fatal downturn followed by a drawn-out recovery would the be best scenario for the Dems and the rest of the country. I guess my "thoughts & prayers" are pretty complicated.
Quote from: Treehugger on October 06, 2020, 05:51:00 AM
Quote from: Larimar on October 06, 2020, 04:39:29 AM
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
+1
I agree too. Actually, I think a serious, but non-fatal downturn followed by a drawn-out recovery would the be best scenario for the Dems and the rest of the country. I guess my "thoughts & prayers" are pretty complicated.
And that Pence gets it so he can't campaign.
Ditto McConnell, and that he is too sick to keep up with his last-minute shennanigans.
From Herman Cain's tweets:
6/24: Attends Trump Tulsa rally
7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19
7/10: Says he's improving
7/15: Says his doctors seem happy
7/27: Says he's really getting better
7/30: Dies
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 06, 2020, 08:19:20 AM
From Herman Cain's tweets:
6/24: Attends Trump Tulsa rally
7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19
7/10: Says he's improving
7/15: Says his doctors seem happy
7/27: Says he's really getting better
7/30: Dies
You missed "is called an Uncle Tom a lot," though I suppose that's earlier in the timeline.
No sir, I did not. I think the President is making a serious mistake, and this is merely an illustration of that point.
And, I am not the one injecting race into conversations where it is irrelevant. That is your deal.
I found this interesting, from a conservative Republican who does not support Trump.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/trumps-moment-of-reckoning-arrives/616620/
M.
Quote from: Treehugger on October 06, 2020, 05:51:00 AM
Quote from: Larimar on October 06, 2020, 04:39:29 AM
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
+1
I agree too. Actually, I think a serious, but non-fatal downturn followed by a drawn-out recovery would the be best scenario for the Dems and the rest of the country. I guess my "thoughts & prayers" are pretty complicated.
A respiratory crisis in the next few days followed by 7-10 days on a ventilator would be instructive for Orange Julius to learn that his wealth, his power, what he thinks and his overblown sense of self-importance is utterly irrelevant to a virus. Followed, of course by a full recovery -- sometime well after the election.
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 06, 2020, 11:16:03 AM
And, I am not the one injecting race into conversations where it is irrelevant. That is your deal.
Point taken.
Quote from: jimbogumbo on October 06, 2020, 11:16:03 AM
No sir, I did not.
And I appreciate the touch o' class.
Has anyone seen the Lincoln Project's new video? It's wonderful — the best Lincoln Project ad yet. For some reason, I can't seem to link it, but just go on YouTube and search for "Lincoln Project" and "Covita." (And yes, it is definitely related to the topic of this thread.)
Quote from: Treehugger on October 07, 2020, 07:00:00 AM
Has anyone seen the Lincoln Project's new video? It's wonderful — the best Lincoln Project ad yet. For some reason, I can't seem to link it, but just go on YouTube and search for "Lincoln Project" and "Covita." (And yes, it is definitely related to the topic of this thread.)
Hmm. I understand, strategically, why they're hammering the 'I broke my promise' message, but did Trump actually promise to keep his distance at some point?
Quote from: ergative on October 08, 2020, 03:57:15 AM
Quote from: Treehugger on October 07, 2020, 07:00:00 AM
Has anyone seen the Lincoln Project's new video? It's wonderful — the best Lincoln Project ad yet. For some reason, I can't seem to link it, but just go on YouTube and search for "Lincoln Project" and "Covita." (And yes, it is definitely related to the topic of this thread.)
Hmm. I understand, strategically, why they're hammering the 'I broke my promise' message, but did Trump actually promise to keep his distance at some point?
Well, musical comedy has never really been associated with logic, so there is that ....
Quote from: secundem_artem on October 06, 2020, 01:18:27 PM
Quote from: Treehugger on October 06, 2020, 05:51:00 AM
Quote from: Larimar on October 06, 2020, 04:39:29 AM
Quote from: Sun_Worshiper on October 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM
Quote from: Ruralguy on October 05, 2020, 08:36:12 PM
I wouldnt want the country to deal with a fallen leader right now.
Better for the man to lose the election, fade to obscurity and then oblivion.
Couldn't agree more
+1
I agree too. Actually, I think a serious, but non-fatal downturn followed by a drawn-out recovery would the be best scenario for the Dems and the rest of the country. I guess my "thoughts & prayers" are pretty complicated.
A respiratory crisis in the next few days followed by 7-10 days on a ventilator would be instructive for Orange Julius to learn that his wealth, his power, what he thinks and his overblown sense of self-importance is utterly irrelevant to a virus. Followed, of course by a full recovery -- sometime well after the election.
+1
DC Mayor Muriel Bowser and the city's Health Dept have been in touch with the White House:
https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/10/bowser-expects-more-conversations-with-white-house-as-dc-offers-help-with-virus-response/ (https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/10/bowser-expects-more-conversations-with-white-house-as-dc-offers-help-with-virus-response/)
Posted on WTOP Radio online 10/7/20