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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: nebo113 on April 22, 2020, 05:26:43 AM

Title: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: nebo113 on April 22, 2020, 05:26:43 AM
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/20/833254570/college-brace-for-financial-trouble-and-a-big-question-will-they-reopen-in-fall
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: polly_mer on April 22, 2020, 06:18:31 AM
Is this really news to anyone in higher ed?

There's a reason we have the long-running Dire Financial Straits thread on the CHE fora and now here.

Anyone who is surprised has purposely not been paying attention for at least a decade.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: nebo113 on April 23, 2020, 05:37:02 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 22, 2020, 06:18:31 AM
Is this really news to anyone in higher ed?

There's a reason we have the long-running Dire Financial Straits thread on the CHE fora and now here.

Anyone who is surprised has purposely not been paying attention for at least a decade.

Sorry, Polly.  Will check the other thread.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 07:45:43 AM
It's a good article for those who need an introduction.  However, I remain frustrated that faculty members exist who still don't know these basics that weren't new in 2008.

The current situation is accelerating demise of institutions that were circling the drain, but it is merely an acceleration, not a change in the underlying factors.

This is the equivalent of "water is wet and people drown when they breathe it" level of "news" with recent examples.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: marshwiggle on April 23, 2020, 08:26:19 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 07:45:43 AM
It's a good article for those who need an introduction.  However, I remain frustrated that faculty members exist who still don't know these basics that weren't new in 2008.

The current situation is accelerating demise of institutions that were circling the drain, but it is merely an acceleration, not a change in the underlying factors.

This is the equivalent of "water is wet and people drown when they breathe it" level of "news" with recent examples.

And here is what I posted in another thread:
Quote from: marshwiggle on April 23, 2020, 05:33:52 AM
A Tale of 5 Hgih Schools (true story)

A small city has 5 high schools, owing partly to the city being created by amalgamation of smaller cities decades ago. Due to declining enrollments, among other things, all of these schools are relatively small; around 1000 students or less. Teacher salaries are good, and the schools are decently maintained. A while ago, the school board proposed closing one or more schools in order to consolidate. This is for a few reasons:

  • These schools have fewer course and program offerings than the bigger schools in nearby cities.
  • These schools have fewer extracurricular activities than the bigger schools in nearby cities.
In addition to having fewer extracurriculars, because of the smaller student pool then the quality tends to be lower as well; a team drawing from 2000 students is likely to be stronger than a team drawing from 1000 students.

Many parents fought the proposal of amalgamation. Some of the high schools students themselves supported it.
Funding is not the problem. The provincial government allocates the same amount per student everywhere, so there aren't "rich" schools and "poor" schools. The board does the same. But the economies of scale cannot be avoided. The cost of a principal and a vice-principal divided among 2000 students is lower than divided among 1000 students. Similarly, the size and amount of mainatenance required for a soccer or football field is the same, whether it's for 1000 students or 2000 students.

In addition to this there are new subdivisions in part of the city, where student numbers are growing, and parents would like a school for their kids, but instead their kids are bused to the other schools to slow the decline there.

There are no villains in this story, but the experience the students have in these smaller schools cannot be what it would be if one or two were closed so they could amalagmate. If none of these schools existed now, the board wouldn't set things up this way.

Hanging on to the status quo means *"preserving" a system which provides an experience for the students that is less than it could be.

Is it worth it?

(*When those schools were created, they fit their communities, so the experience students had then was better. So the experience now is a shadow of what it was, so it's more a case of "preserving" the fantasy of what it was.)

So even when the situation isn't desperate, keeping a whole bunch of places alive precludes the possibility of a smaller number being able to thrive.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 23, 2020, 08:26:57 AM
I'm picturing the state university being saved because it's already the state's baby and the president we've had for several years is into expanding, big time. Fair or not, it's too big to fail. Think of CVS where there used to be the neighborhood family run pharmacy. So far they're saying fall semester will be close to normal but I'll believe it when I see it.

Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: downer on April 23, 2020, 08:32:23 AM
Are states already committed to funding state colleges for the fall? I guess even if they are, they might not if they don't have the money.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 09:04:52 AM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 08:32:23 AM
Are states already committed to funding state colleges for the fall? I guess even if they are, they might not if they don't have the money.

I'm confused by this discussion. Obviously there are huge issues, but in the broader sense, states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems. The political and economic blowback would be huge. Cuts, massive reorganizing, closing of some campuses? I wouldn't rule things like that out, but no state is just going to shut down colleges. The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. How much money and how much of that goes to education are big unknowns, but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: downer on April 23, 2020, 09:25:13 AM
Quote from: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 09:04:52 AM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 08:32:23 AM
Are states already committed to funding state colleges for the fall? I guess even if they are, they might not if they don't have the money.

I'm confused by this discussion. Obviously there are huge issues, but in the broader sense, states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems. The political and economic blowback would be huge. Cuts, massive reorganizing, closing of some campuses? I wouldn't rule things like that out, but no state is just going to shut down colleges. The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. How much money and how much of that goes to education are big unknowns, but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral.

Sorry, you are right. I was not thinking of complete closings, but more drastic cuts of funding, and possible consolidation of different state colleges. My local community college has 3 campuses. It might be harder to justify keeping them all open if all teaching is online.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: apl68 on April 23, 2020, 09:49:35 AM
Fear of protests from regional constituents will probably make shutting state campuses down altogether very much a last resort.  It's more likely that some will be downsized and downgraded to a lower tier of service.  The pressure to do so will be especially strong in states like Vermont where state campuses are thick on the ground. 

As for small, marginal private colleges, we're surely going to see an acceleration of closures there.  It's just a question of by how much.  The colleges best positioned to survive will presumably be the really rich, well-known SLACs and those small schools that still serve a strong niche--some HCBUs, religiously-affiliated schools that still serve that mission (and aren't associated with denominations that have undergone a demographic collapse), and a few places with strong specialized programs that are still in demand.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 10:13:59 AM
Quote from: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 09:04:52 AM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 08:32:23 AM
Are states already committed to funding state colleges for the fall? I guess even if they are, they might not if they don't have the money.

I'm confused by this discussion. Obviously there are huge issues, but in the broader sense, states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems. The political and economic blowback would be huge. Cuts, massive reorganizing, closing of some campuses? I wouldn't rule things like that out, but no state is just going to shut down colleges. The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. How much money and how much of that goes to education are big unknowns, but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral.

It's true that states aren't likely to go all the way down to zero, but many states are already only funding a small portion of their public higher ed.  In 2019, only 4.5 percent of CU Boulder's budget came from state funding, while it was 72.2 percent in 2007. (https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/09/cu-boulder-colorado-reliance-on-tuition-revenue/)

The current situation in Vermont with the proposed closing of 3 of 4 campuses in the system and still leaving a big gap in funding is an extreme case, but not the only one. (https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/21/vermont-state-colleges-need-25-million-now-even-without-campus-closures/)

Higher ed is usually one of the few pots of discretionary money available to balance the state budget: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/04/13/public-colleges-face-looming-financial-blow-state-budget-cuts

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred.  The assertions read more like wishes and hopes than conclusions drawn from the known data that includes how few states rebounded to their pre-2008 levels of funding of higher ed.  One of the recurring themes about why tuition and fees keep rising faster than inflation is the greatly-reduced state funding of higher ed.

For those who don't know, some state flagships are not R1s and indeed there are no R1 institutions in the entire state (Wyoming comes immediately to mind).  Changing what is offered for the smaller schools may mean what's left bears little resemblance to what most people are picturing as a college, which has significant implications for faculty and other university/college jobs in that state.  Nope, probably won't close literally all the higher ed institutions, but might consolidate in some of the smaller states to a bare handful.

Anyone else remember the Alaska system discussion from last summer with proposed cuts of 40% of the state's funding to higher ed? (https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/07/30/ua-regents-move-to-consolidate-university-of-alaska-system-into-one-accredited-university/)  Any bets on how long before the voted down consolidation decision is revisited to better use the limited funding available?
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: downer on April 23, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
Can state colleges increase student fees for this fall? Or is the fee level fixed for the coming academic year?
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 10:23:54 AM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
Can state colleges increase student fees for this fall? Or is the fee level fixed for the coming academic year?

Depends on the state, what their deadlines are, and who gets to make the decision.

Whether increased student fees is a good idea depends on a whole host of other factors, including whether students will opt for online and still want to pay increased fees instead of perhaps filing lawsuits or taking some time off.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 23, 2020, 11:09:38 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 10:13:59 AM
Quote from: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 09:04:52 AM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 08:32:23 AM
Are states already committed to funding state colleges for the fall? I guess even if they are, they might not if they don't have the money.

I'm confused by this discussion. Obviously there are huge issues, but in the broader sense, states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems. The political and economic blowback would be huge. Cuts, massive reorganizing, closing of some campuses? I wouldn't rule things like that out, but no state is just going to shut down colleges. The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. How much money and how much of that goes to education are big unknowns, but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral.

It's true that states aren't likely to go all the way down to zero, but many states are already only funding a small portion of their public higher ed.  In 2019, only 4.5 percent of CU Boulder's budget came from state funding, while it was 72.2 percent in 2007. (https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/09/cu-boulder-colorado-reliance-on-tuition-revenue/)

The current situation in Vermont with the proposed closing of 3 of 4 campuses in the system and still leaving a big gap in funding is an extreme case, but not the only one. (https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/21/vermont-state-colleges-need-25-million-now-even-without-campus-closures/)

Higher ed is usually one of the few pots of discretionary money available to balance the state budget: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/04/13/public-colleges-face-looming-financial-blow-state-budget-cuts

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred.  The assertions read more like wishes and hopes than conclusions drawn from the known data that includes how few states rebounded to their pre-2008 levels of funding of higher ed.  One of the recurring themes about why tuition and fees keep rising faster than inflation is the greatly-reduced state funding of higher ed.

For those who don't know, some state flagships are not R1s and indeed there are no R1 institutions in the entire state (Wyoming comes immediately to mind).  Changing what is offered for the smaller schools may mean what's left bears little resemblance to what most people are picturing as a college, which has significant implications for faculty and other university/college jobs in that state.  Nope, probably won't close literally all the higher ed institutions, but might consolidate in some of the smaller states to a bare handful.

Anyone else remember the Alaska system discussion from last summer with proposed cuts of 40% of the state's funding to higher ed? (https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/07/30/ua-regents-move-to-consolidate-university-of-alaska-system-into-one-accredited-university/)  Any bets on how long before the voted down consolidation decision is revisited to better use the limited funding available?

But you still haven't answered the question in the thread title! C'mon, don't hold out on us.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 10:13:59 AM

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred. 


Polly, I hate to tell you this, but you don't actually seem to disagree with anything I wrote.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Anselm on April 23, 2020, 12:51:59 PM
Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: dismalist on April 23, 2020, 01:22:28 PM
Quote from: Anselm on April 23, 2020, 12:51:59 PM
Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.

Interesting thought. Why do you say that?

Thanks.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: dr_codex on April 23, 2020, 01:31:25 PM
I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Anselm on April 23, 2020, 01:53:35 PM
Quote from: dismalist on April 23, 2020, 01:22:28 PM
Quote from: Anselm on April 23, 2020, 12:51:59 PM
Any SLAC that depends on athletics to recruit students is toast.  Any school that is already hurting financially will likely close or lay off half of their employees.  The big uncertainty is getting government assistance but if the small business loans are any indicator then there is little hope of getting any money in a timely manner.

Interesting thought. Why do you say that?

Thanks.

I don't think they can withstand having enrollment drop by 50%.  There is a nearby school that has been circling the drain for 5 years and most of their 700 students are on sports teams.  They come from far away to play sports.  If they don't have sports in the fall then most of those students will not enroll. 
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: downer on April 23, 2020, 04:34:52 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 04:49:41 PM
Quote from: dr_codex on April 23, 2020, 01:31:25 PM
I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

Yeah, sadly probably right. The thing that will make a big difference for state budgets is federal money to states. McConnell seems to be acting like it would be a good idea to just have states declare bankruptcy, but chances are the federal government is going to give states money. Of course, it may not be enough and states may not spend it on higher ed.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 23, 2020, 05:58:31 PM
Quote from: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 04:49:41 PM
Quote from: dr_codex on April 23, 2020, 01:31:25 PM
I don't think big money is coming from the Feds, at least not directly.

More likely is deferral (but not elimination) of student debt repayments; an increase in financing available to middle class (but not poor) families; and a tiny increase in Pell grants to cover rising tuition. A boost in the GI Bill funding, maybe. At the State level, possibly an increase in the amounts that parents and others can put into 529 accounts -- spin the wheel on the markets, folks! And maybe a tweak to things like NY State's Excelsior Scholarship Program (promising a lot but actually providing benefits to a very narrow slice of the population).

In other words, we'll see some attempts to prevent full-on runs on parts of the system, a few tweaks that will encourage more indebtedness, and nothing like the Progressive-DNC elimination of student debt or free CC tuition.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

Yeah, sadly probably right. The thing that will make a big difference for state budgets is federal money to states. McConnell seems to be acting like it would be a good idea to just have states declare bankruptcy, but chances are the federal government is going to give states money. Of course, it may not be enough and states may not spend it on higher ed.

College administrations think they spend it on higher ed. By that they mean, partly, attracting students who aren't going to get a lot out of being there.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 04:34:52 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.

Sorry, wasn't meant to be.  Comes from an ongoing debate that most posters ignore, I believe.

My position (which others dismiss): One of the ways, perhaps the only way, that we are going to survive is by motivating the general populace to help our colleges and universities.  It will be a doubly uphill battle thanks to our lovely COVID.

I just mean that we have to get the word out (writing letters to politicians, letters to editors, editorials, magazine features; Facebook, Twitter, etc.; rallies, interviews; contacting family, friends, alumni, students, potential students, parents, etc.) that our higher ed is in grave danger of crumbling.  Even given the looming recession (which I pray will not be a depression) we can still advocate for ed.

I'm working on two articles now, one on a college closing in my current U.S. state, one on a university in my home state.  Publications are open to these kinds of things.

Publicize our views on essential higher ed.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: nebo113 on April 24, 2020, 05:21:36 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 07:45:43 AM
It's a good article for those who need an introduction.  However, I remain frustrated that faculty members exist who still don't know these basics that weren't new in 2008.

The current situation is accelerating demise of institutions that were circling the drain, but it is merely an acceleration, not a change in the underlying factors.

This is the equivalent of "water is wet and people drown when they breathe it" level of "news" with recent examples.

I am retired, so not au courant on viability.  My small, poor, rural county has a small, public liberal arts college, and I don't see how it can survive.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: polly_mer on April 24, 2020, 09:20:43 AM
Quote from: Caracal on April 23, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 23, 2020, 10:13:59 AM

For the readers in the audience, the assertions in the quoted text are out-of-step with what the online public discussions are among people who know the detailed nuts and bolts of higher ed funding, even before the shutdown occurred. 


Polly, I hate to tell you this, but you don't actually seem to disagree with anything I wrote.

The disagreement is that you seem overly optimistic and are giving off that Professor Sparklepony vibe of "it's bad, but most of us are probably going to be OK enough".  It's not going to be OK for many people in higher ed for the foreseeable future, even people who have tenured jobs at well enough resourced places who can usually just ignore the higher ed landscapes as not relevant.

"states aren't simply going to stop funding their university systems".  It's actually a non-zero possibility when the state revenues tank and higher ed is one of the few items that can be cut.  Several states rely heavily on oil and gas revenues for their state budget (New Mexico is about 40%).  Those states may have started the year projecting a surplus, but things are bad now and that's on top of additional expenses related to COVID-19.

"The political and economic blowback would be huge. ... but no state is just going to shut down colleges"  When the stark choice is presented as "after we meet all our obligations for K-12, health care, pensions, and social programs like unemployments and food stamps, we have so little left for higher ed that we must ...", the response from sane people will be "OK". 

Unless you're including "armed uprisings" as part of "political and economic blowback", then I don't see politicians bowing enough when money is just not there and borrowing is already implemented to keep people from starving in the streets.  I remember the HLC making requests of the public universities in IL for their plan if the state send zero dollars that year and it was scary all around.  I remember multiple public pleas by the Illinois Comptroller to be allowed to pay the electricity and water bills for the state government during the Illinois lack of a budget. 

Even if the blowback is huge, how can one legitimately put general higher education over people's lives in the moment?  The discussions in some places are how the community colleges will get money for specific certificate/licensure programs as urgent need, but the cuts to liberal arts general education will continue.  The fear in many places I'm reading is what happens to the engineering programs when we have almost no foreign students for the next year (frequently more than 50% of the total majors and usually at full pay).

"The other part of this is that it is very likely states are going to get big influxes of money from the federal government. ...but it basically has to happen if you're going to avoid a huge deflationary spiral."  We're going to have a huge deflationary spiral; that's unavoidable.  The question at this point is whether we as the United States put concerted, governmental effort into keeping people alive by providing food, shelter, and health care or whether we let people ride things out essentially on their own and hope to rebuild an economy. 

The specifics of economics are outside my professional area of expertise.  My relevant expertise to this topic is I currently work in national defense and global security.  Part of the situational awareness for my job is knowing what has happened and is happening in parts of the world that aren't just the G7+a couple other first world nations.  One thing that is clear is that it's possible to have a big enough disruption to go from having a modern middle class with professionals to "everyone" being short-term focused on food and shelter for today.

There is no reason to think that the US is somehow so special that we are just having a couple months of different before most of us return to our normal lives.  Higher ed in particular is going to have huge shakeups.  Harvard will survive and within rounding of all the Super Dinkies will fail.  However, some programs/colleges/institutions that might otherwise have survived will be abruptly discontinued in an effort to preserve things we need (nursing programs, engineering programs, teacher and social work preparation programs).

There is no credible scenario for the next five years that results in a lot of money magically appearing and higher ed being mostly restored to a desired normal of a golden age or even preserved in mostly its current state.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: spork on April 24, 2020, 10:06:31 AM
What's happening in Vermont is a good example. The chancellor of the state college system has made everyone aware of the problem: https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/22/walters-jeb-spaulding-drops-a-pipe-bomb/ (https://vtdigger.org/2020/04/22/walters-jeb-spaulding-drops-a-pipe-bomb/). Voters and legislators have metaphorically painted themselves into a corner -- either adequately fund capacity that isn't needed or continue to starve the system until it collapses under its own weight.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: dismalist on April 24, 2020, 11:09:51 AM
What Southern New Hampshire U is doing could be interesting. Part of it certainly is, namely the tuition cut part.

https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693 (https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693)
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: jimbogumbo on April 24, 2020, 11:20:16 AM
Quote from: dismalist on April 24, 2020, 11:09:51 AM
What Southern New Hampshire U is doing could be interesting. Part of it certainly is, namely the tuition cut part.

https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693 (https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693)

Call me a pessimist, but this is easier to do for 2000+ students on campus when you have 87000 online students.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: dismalist on April 24, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: jimbogumbo on April 24, 2020, 11:20:16 AM
Quote from: dismalist on April 24, 2020, 11:09:51 AM
What Southern New Hampshire U is doing could be interesting. Part of it certainly is, namely the tuition cut part.

https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693 (https://www.unionleader.com/news/health/coronavirus/snhu-to-cut-tuition-from-31-000-to-10-000-revamp-on-campus-learning/article_03612259-97b8-5ff6-9e1c-134b8e8d375d.html?block_id=664693)

Call me a pessimist, but this is easier to do for 2000+ students on campus when you have 87000 online students.

Hadn't known about the 87K. Then this seems to be a route to eventually killing off all on-site classes, not just first year classes.

But what will garner the attention of others is the tuition drop.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 24, 2020, 11:57:59 AM
 Search results for: sparklepony
Pages: [1]
1
General Discussion / Re: Which colleges will survive?
« by polly_mer on Today at 09:20:43 AM »
......  optimistic and are giving off that Professor Sparklepony vibe of "it's bad, but most of us are probably  ......
2
General Discussion / Re: Civility and the Pareto distribution
« by Caracal on April 15, 2020, 06:17:23 AM »
......  should be reading indicates that Professor Sparklepony is winning and we need still more people who will  ......
3
Teaching / Re: Crowded Classrooms and COVID
« by Caracal on April 11, 2020, 08:56:33 AM »
......  lives upheaval. The fora has the term "Professor Sparklepony" for the professor who has ignored all the  ......
4
General Academic Discussion / Re: Institutional Prestige vs Program Prestige For Interdisciplinary Field?
« by polly_mer on April 05, 2020, 06:57:33 AM »
......  only from personal experience is how Professor Sparklepony says things like "don't expect a job at the end"  ......
5
General Discussion / Re: Post your asides here
« by polly_mer on January 26, 2020, 08:51:35 AM »
...... , lurkers who need someone other than Professor Sparklepony as well as anyone else who doesn't get enough  ......

Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 24, 2020, 11:59:46 AM
Quote from: Caracal on April 24, 2020, 11:57:59 AM
Search results for: sparklepony
Pages: [1]
1
General Discussion / Re: Which colleges will survive?
« by polly_mer on Today at 09:20:43 AM »
......  optimistic and are giving off that Professor Sparklepony vibe of "it's bad, but most of us are probably  ......
2
General Discussion / Re: Civility and the Pareto distribution
« by Caracal on April 15, 2020, 06:17:23 AM »
......  should be reading indicates that Professor Sparklepony is winning and we need still more people who will  ......
3
Teaching / Re: Crowded Classrooms and COVID
« by Caracal on April 11, 2020, 08:56:33 AM »
......  lives upheaval. The fora has the term "Professor Sparklepony" for the professor who has ignored all the  ......
4
General Academic Discussion / Re: Institutional Prestige vs Program Prestige For Interdisciplinary Field?
« by polly_mer on April 05, 2020, 06:57:33 AM »
......  only from personal experience is how Professor Sparklepony says things like "don't expect a job at the end"  ......
5
General Discussion / Re: Post your asides here
« by polly_mer on January 26, 2020, 08:51:35 AM »
...... , lurkers who need someone other than Professor Sparklepony as well as anyone else who doesn't get enough  ......

On the other hand "Freeway Flier" hasn't made an appearance since the end of March.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Caracal on April 24, 2020, 12:59:35 PM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 24, 2020, 09:20:43 AM
  We're going to have a huge deflationary spiral; that's unavoidable.  The question at this point is whether we as the United States put concerted, governmental effort into keeping people alive by providing food, shelter, and health care or whether we let people ride things out essentially on their own and hope to rebuild an economy. 


No, there's nothing inevitable about it, the spiral happens when governments don't spend money to keep additional jobs from being lost or to create new jobs. The federal government can borrow money at essentially no interest right now. The price of oil went below 0, so it isn't like inflation is a big worry at the moment. They can and should spend money on all kinds of things like increased help to people laid off, temporary jobs, ,infrastructure projects, building up the public health system, to giving money to state governments to prevent huge cuts that would result in more people losing their jobs and lots of knock on effects. Will that happen? I don't know, but it definitely can.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:00:20 PM
I suggest Doctor Thunderdome as a counterpoint to Professor Sparklepony.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Hibush on April 24, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:00:20 PM
I suggest Doctor Thunderdome as a counterpoint to Professor Sparklepony.

This discussion puts me in mind of Princess Sparklepony's coverage (https://www.wonkette.com/put-down-your-pencils) of noted professor and academic administartor Condi Rice in years past when she was doing her alt-ac thing.

To keep it on topic: I predict that Stanford will survive.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Two academics enter; one academic leaves with tenure. 
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: sprout on April 25, 2020, 09:05:43 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Two academics enter; one academic leaves with tenure.

I think I saw a movie that had this.  Don't remember what it was and I'm sure the tenure thing was quite incidental to whatever the plot was.  But one of the characters was vying for tenure with a colleague - only one of the two would get it.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 25, 2020, 10:06:42 PM
Quote from: sprout on April 25, 2020, 09:05:43 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Two academics enter; one academic leaves with tenure.

I think I saw a movie that had this.  Don't remember what it was and I'm sure the tenure thing was quite incidental to whatever the plot was.  But one of the characters was vying for tenure with a colleague - only one of the two would get it.

And were they husband and wife?
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: sprout on April 26, 2020, 12:10:41 AM
Quote from: mahagonny on April 25, 2020, 10:06:42 PM
Quote from: sprout on April 25, 2020, 09:05:43 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Two academics enter; one academic leaves with tenure.

I think I saw a movie that had this.  Don't remember what it was and I'm sure the tenure thing was quite incidental to whatever the plot was.  But one of the characters was vying for tenure with a colleague - only one of the two would get it.

And were they husband and wife?

Maybe...?  Is it ringing a bell?
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Stockmann on April 26, 2020, 02:00:32 PM
Quote from: sprout on April 25, 2020, 09:05:43 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 24, 2020, 02:21:10 PM
Two academics enter; one academic leaves with tenure.

I think I saw a movie that had this.  Don't remember what it was and I'm sure the tenure thing was quite incidental to whatever the plot was.  But one of the characters was vying for tenure with a colleague - only one of the two would get it.

Gladiator? Spartacus? You know, the principle that if you've disembowelled a bunch of rivals, the crowds like you and the Emperor is in a good mood, you survive/get tenure.
On the other hand, given all the old certainties that are gone, not just in academia, even before coronavirus, well, The Hunger Games is such a hit for a reason - no doubt because a lot of young and not-so-young people felt they could relate.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: hmaria1609 on April 26, 2020, 06:05:00 PM
Quote from: Stockmann on April 26, 2020, 02:00:32 PM
On the other hand, given all the old certainties that are gone, not just in academia, even before coronavirus, well, The Hunger Games is such a hit for a reason - no doubt because a lot of young and not-so-young people felt they could relate.
Suzanne Collins has a prequel novel The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes releasing May 19th. Coriolanus Snow, age 18, is assigned to mentor a District 12 female tribute for the 10th annual Hunger Games.
There's a movie adaptation in the works.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 05:42:34 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 04:34:52 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.

Sorry, wasn't meant to be.  Comes from an ongoing debate that most posters ignore, I believe.

My position (which others dismiss): One of the ways, perhaps the only way, that we are going to survive is by motivating the general populace to help our colleges and universities.  It will be a doubly uphill battle thanks to our lovely COVID.

I just mean that we have to get the word out (writing letters to politicians, letters to editors, editorials, magazine features; Facebook, Twitter, etc.; rallies, interviews; contacting family, friends, alumni, students, potential students, parents, etc.) that our higher ed is in grave danger of crumbling.  Even given the looming recession (which I pray will not be a depression) we can still advocate for ed.

I'm working on two articles now, one on a college closing in my current U.S. state, one on a university in my home state.  Publications are open to these kinds of things.

Publicize our views on essential higher ed.

Sorry to rain on your parade, in a way, but this is obvious: nobody's going to be too surprised that people who've made good money as professors want the public to cough up more to fund colleges. That view has been getting expressed at least since I first began teaching. Some will be reading these articles voyeuristically. Like slowing down to look at an auto accident.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 28, 2020, 06:38:15 PM
Quote from: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 05:42:34 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 04:34:52 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 23, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
Quote from: downer on April 23, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
There is the added vector of how states are going to fund state colleges during a recession. Hopefully higher education will be a priority for states, and maybe the federal govt will do more to support higher education that it deems essential.

Publicize.

That's a little cryptic. Actually, a lot cryptic.

Sorry, wasn't meant to be.  Comes from an ongoing debate that most posters ignore, I believe.

My position (which others dismiss): One of the ways, perhaps the only way, that we are going to survive is by motivating the general populace to help our colleges and universities.  It will be a doubly uphill battle thanks to our lovely COVID.

I just mean that we have to get the word out (writing letters to politicians, letters to editors, editorials, magazine features; Facebook, Twitter, etc.; rallies, interviews; contacting family, friends, alumni, students, potential students, parents, etc.) that our higher ed is in grave danger of crumbling.  Even given the looming recession (which I pray will not be a depression) we can still advocate for ed.

I'm working on two articles now, one on a college closing in my current U.S. state, one on a university in my home state.  Publications are open to these kinds of things.

Publicize our views on essential higher ed.

Sorry to rain on your parade, in a way, but this is obvious: nobody's going to be too surprised that people who've made good money as professors want the public to cough up more to fund colleges. That view has been getting expressed at least since I first began teaching. Some will be reading these articles voyeuristically. Like slowing down to look at an auto accident.

Sorry, my friend, you do not have enough cloud-cover to rain on my parade. While it is certainly true that the general populace wants more from higher ed and can be very critical of higher ed, the populace also supports higher ed.  This to me sounds like typical human behavior toward our institutions: we love and hate them at the same time.  And Democrats support ed, Repubs not as much or least not in the same way. Do a Google search on support for higher ed.

Some highlights:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/461106-majority-of-voters-support-free-college-eliminating-student-debt

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/06/17/survey-shows-publics-support-and-qualms-about-higher-education

https://www.thirdway.org/polling/beyond-free-college-and-free-markets-voters-want-greater-accountability-in-higher-ed

From Above:
Quote
Despite a recent deluge of negative news coverage surrounding institutions of higher education, Americans continue to view the overall system favorably. This rings true for trade schools, public community colleges, and four-year colleges and universities, boasting overall favorability ratings of 75, 72, and 43 points, respectively. Only proprietary or for-profit schools elicited a negative reaction from voters.

Mahagonny, you are a good dude but you simply want to insist on finding the dark lining. 

Why are you so angry?
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 07:05:41 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 28, 2020, 06:38:15 PM

Sorry, my friend, you do not have enough cloud-cover to rain on my parade. While it is certainly true that the general populace wants more from higher ed and can be very critical of higher ed, the populace also supports higher ed.  This to me sounds like typical human behavior toward our institutions: we love and hate them at the same time.  And Democrats support ed, Repubs not as much or least not in the same way. Do a Google search on support for higher ed.

Some highlights:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/461106-majority-of-voters-support-free-college-eliminating-student-debt

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/06/17/survey-shows-publics-support-and-qualms-about-higher-education

https://www.thirdway.org/polling/beyond-free-college-and-free-markets-voters-want-greater-accountability-in-higher-ed

From Above:
Quote
Despite a recent deluge of negative news coverage surrounding institutions of higher education, Americans continue to view the overall system favorably. This rings true for trade schools, public community colleges, and four-year colleges and universities, boasting overall favorability ratings of 75, 72, and 43 points, respectively. Only proprietary or for-profit schools elicited a negative reaction from voters.

Mahagonny, you are a good dude but you simply want to insist on finding the dark lining. 

Why are you so angry?

Well, does it have to be about me again?  I'm going to be angry if someone wants to raise my taxes to make higher education 'free.' I'm trying to save up for the years coming when we won't we able to work as much, or be hired as much. Our child already attended college and we paid the freight. Still paying for graduate school.
Particularly when I know how higher education gets its labor executed. The subclass of workers. The more money that you hope will head for college budgets would be available to people like Polly_Mer's provost Bob and the tenure track that he plays ball with. Wealth redistribution - upwards.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: Wahoo Redux on April 28, 2020, 07:35:20 PM
Just asking because your attitudes and opinions are so extreme.  I wonder why you come here or work in academia when you seem to hate it so much. 

You know that not all provosts are like "Bob," and I only believe about half of what our friend Polly posts anyway.  Her attitudes and opinions are also very extreme. 

For whatever it is worth, the money the voter kicks up to us is worth the cost.  Yes, yes, yes, I understand that college could be done better----but what couldn't?  And one of the things that hamstrings college is the money we have to work with.

And again, look at the support, look for yourself.  People want college.  They are willing to support it, not all, of course, but enough. 
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 08:41:13 PM
I think a big thing that hamstrings college is the dynamic of the 'winners/losers' scenario in place of what could be a sort of family. I'm not saying a family where no one ever fights. But just a workforce where no one is on the receiving end of that duplicitous designation 'temporary faculty.'
Everyone who is there should be understood to be intentional and invested in in some way. The refusal to look at how tenure and its tremendous number of needs feeds that segmentation means that things won't change much.

QuoteYou know that not all provosts are like "Bob," and I only believe about half of what our friend Polly posts anyway.  Her attitudes and opinions are also very extreme. 

I think Provost Bob was real enough. He's so bottom line (cost savings) oriented that he seeks out mid level administrators who will never really advocate for faculty, but will mingle with them energetically and come into their confidence to some degree, mainly by being talkative and available. And finds them.
Title: Re: Which colleges will survive?
Post by: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 09:54:19 PM
Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 28, 2020, 07:35:20 PM
Just asking because your attitudes and opinions are so extreme.  I wonder why you come here or work in academia when you seem to hate it so much. 

They're not extreme at all. They're what my experience generates.
I don't hate the work and the money is manageable. Internally, I am happy.
Sometimes I even
like the work. I hate the hiring practices and workforce structure. And ultimately, altho the pitfalls of the adjunct system are acknowledged, they are entrenched and not really a general concern except where their consequences are an inconvenience to the tenure track. At the same time, the advantages of using the adjunct population are considered an entitlement and not even recognized.
They make me an outsider, and I think like one.