On Thursday I went to Walmart for supplies. I didnt want to make another trip to the grocery store, so I peeked at the beef that was out. I saw 3 rib eye steaks priced at just over $73!!! that was $18.47 per pound!! At WALMART for 'choice' grade beef.
I went to the grocery store yesterday. I got 2 steaks for $2 less per pound for better quality beef, I think.
I did see that corn was almost 50 cents an ear and lettuce was just under $1.5 a head!
They had green beans on sale for just under $1 a pound, but the beans were already in bags, and the beans were poor quality, full of leaves and stems! So for that price, after you culled out the garbage, you would end up with a much higher price!
Anything of note in your area reflecting the inflation situation?
I doubt that's inflation as opposed to either (1) supply chain issues; last year's covid measures caused all kinds of havoc at farms and stockyards which are only now being felt, or (2) futures speculation (this is why grain often swings wildly, and it's what happened to lumber through last year).
The rise in beef prices has been about 12% for the year, whereas the Consumer Price Index rose 5.3%. Thus in addition to the rise in the overall price level determined by Macro stuff like the money supply and the government deficit, the relative price of beef has risen because beef has suffered some idiosyncratic shocks. There have been droughts two years running. Other countries have had supply problems, so beef exports surged.
Pray for rain! :-)
I'm not sure about the inflation factor. All I know is that prices have almost doubled in some instances. Lamb and beef are much more expensive than they were just before summer. I've also seen the rising prices in produce that I get every week.
Quote from: dismalist on October 09, 2021, 01:15:22 PM
The rise in beef prices has been about 12% for the year, whereas the Consumer Price Index rose 5.3%. Thus in addition to the rise in the overall price level determined by Macro stuff like the money supply and the government deficit, the relative price of beef has risen because beef has suffered some idiosyncratic shocks. There have been droughts two years running. Other countries have had supply problems, so beef exports surged.
Pray for rain! :-)
Right, I forgot about the droughts.
A single serving of homemade chicken soup at my neighborhood sub and pizza joint is $5.75 up from $4 one year ago.
Well, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)
QuoteWell, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)
Perhaps Beefeater Gin?
Quote from: clean on October 09, 2021, 09:12:07 PM
QuoteWell, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)
Perhaps Beefeater Gin?
Actually, I'm a wino, but if this were really bundling, I'd be first in line! :-)
Cheers.
I have the impression that I read in a other thread that someone was making the case for investing in a freezer, and stockpiling chicken. Do we expect to be without beef and chicken for most of the 21-22 winter season? Is such a shortage expected? Honestly asking.
Quote from: RatGuy on October 10, 2021, 07:55:13 AM
I have the impression that I read in a other thread that someone was making the case for investing in a freezer, and stockpiling chicken. Do we expect to be without beef and chicken for most of the 21-22 winter season? Is such a shortage expected? Honestly asking.
There was a chicken shortage a couple months ago because of disruptions to meatpacking. Dunno to what extent it's resolved, being vegetarian.
I wouldn't expect meatlessness, since the US mostly supplies its own meats (and doesn't rely on immigrant labor to truck it around), unlike some places. It's just that I'd expect prices to go up in response to things like meatpacking problems, previous culls due to drought, better prices abroad, etc. Unless everyone panic-buys a whole cow in anticipation, anyway.
Dunno about more seasonal meats, though. It wouldn't take much to disrupt the Thanksgiving/Christmas turkey supply for those particular days. Beef and chicken are year-round meats, so I'd think those supply chains are more resilient.
Chickens are pretty quick from egg to meat so that supply chain is able to handle fluctuations. I wouldn't worry about shortages or long-lasting inflation.
Beef takes longer so those prices would be more sensitive if there was a slowdown in production.
As a curious onlooker from long-ago remembered Econ claseses...
Isn't there a structural difference, though, between costs rising for various reasons--like supply/demand, transport, etc.--and what's considered in classic economics terms to be inflation, which is based on monetary policy, gold prices, etc.?
I might have this wrong, too, but I think I recall that my old Samuelson text said something like <6%inflation was necessary, or even good, to be able to maintain employment levels, and that 3% unemployment should be taken as a structural constant because, Phillips curves? (I could get up and look for it but it's buried behind the Art History books at the moment...)
So, is it accurate to call all increases "inflation," per se, and do we need to worry about all up to some certain point because of the "rising tide" floating the income "boats" (to the degree CoL ties exist), as well?
I'm, of course, prepared to be corrected...
;--》
M.
Quote from: mamselle on October 10, 2021, 10:51:29 AM
As a curious onlooker from long-ago remembered Econ claseses...
Isn't there a structural difference, though, between costs rising for various reasons--like supply/demand, transport, etc.--and what's considered in classic economics terms to be inflation, which is based on monetary policy, gold prices, etc.?
Yes. The first leads to a change in relative prices, the second to a change in the overall price level.
I might have this wrong, too, but I think I recall that my old Samuelson text said something like <6%inflation was necessary, or even good, to be able to maintain employment levels, and that 3% unemployment should be taken as a structural constant because, Phillips curves? (I could get up and look for it but it's buried behind the Art History books at the moment...)
Necessary inflation is not the right descriptor. If the inflation is expected, no problem for unemployment: The Phillips curve [tradeoff between inflation and unemployment] is vertical. Downward sloping Phillips curve [more unemployment when inflation is lower] only when inflation is unexpected.
So, is it accurate to call all increases "inflation," per se, and do we need to worry about all up to some certain point because of the "rising tide" floating the income "boats" (to the degree CoL ties exist), as well?
It's necessary for clear thinking to separate changes in relative prices from changes in the overall price level.
If one's wages change with the cost of living one can forget overall inflation, and just worry about relative price changes. And wages will change thusly, but not right away when the inflation is unexpected, though they will respond quickly when the inflation expected.
I'm, of course, prepared to be corrected...
;--》
M.
OK, so, sort-of partly right, with corrections?
How would "expected" inflation differ from "unexpected" inflation, then?
I don't recall at all its being predictable, but that was a loooonnnggg time ago I took that course...
M.
Quote from: mamselle on October 10, 2021, 11:42:43 AM
OK, so, sort-of partly right, with corrections?
How would "expected" inflation differ from "unexpected" inflation, then?
I don't recall at all its being predictable, but that was a loooonnnggg time ago I took that course...
M.
Are you kidding? That's an A for the times! Way more than half right for the present.
The Phillips Curve I described wasn't yet around for Samuelson's 6th edition.
The Federal Reserve had a target inflation rate of 2%. It usually undershot a little. It was eminently predictable, hence expected. And in spite of low inflation we had very low unemployment.
The current experience, on the other hand, was hard to predict, not least because of the Covid shock, and the unknown response of the Fed and the government deficit to that shock.
More generally, if the Fed jumps around a lot, then inflation is hard to predict.
QuoteAre you kidding? That's an A for the times! Way more than half right for the present.
Gwarsh....<blushes>...thanks!
M.
Just today I saw a medium bottle of Listerine being sold for $6. That seemed a bit high to me.
A few months ago I found a website with prices for about 100 commodities. All but 5 items were up over 10% YoY. The only exceptions that I recall were shrimp and potassium chloride. Personally I would prefer that stores raise prices for item in short supply rather than have empty shelves. Right now I am not seeing bare shelves. Things should get really interesting come Christmas time with the current container ship pile up at the ports.
Precious metals prices are down from a few months ago. Maybe all of this excess liquidity is going into stocks and real estate.
'Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.'
So there's a lot of inflation news to catch up on. I went to a sub shop today. Fish and chips and a soda, $22.50. An extra tiny little plastic thing with tartar sauce, another 75 cents. I have never been charged for extra tartar sauce. How tacky can you get?
Thing is, they stay busy. I'm working more hours per week than I've ever worked since my early 20's, so I don't have much time for cooking or grocery shopping. I have to eat out. But I don't understand why everyone does. If they didn't have business, they would have to lower their prices.
Wife still believes none of this inflation has anything to do with Joe Biden and the democrats. Then again, all of her news comes from left-biased outlets.
Eggs!!
I tested COVID positive in the end of june and was positive for 3 full weeks! In that time I was a good boy and stayed home. I didnt get to grocery shop. After that, My Bride did most of the shopping, so I didnt shop again until very recently. Then I noticed that eggs were 30 cents each ($3.65 a dozen!) When did this happen??
These are not 'cage free', organic, or 'cruelty free' eggs. These were for store brand, caged, industrial produced with full cruelty included eggs!!
Then this afternoon, I looked up what the Social Security wage cap would be! $160,200 a year!! (compared to 147000 in 2022)
That means that the SSi Cap goes from $9114 to $9932! (So someone making 147000 would have needed a 13,200 raise to keep up with inflation! I sure as hell didnt get anything close to that in ANY of the 20 years I have been employed at my current job! In fact, I would not be surprised that it would take 5 years of the raises we have had to total 13, 200!)
this just hits hard as an illustration of how slowly faculty/state employees wages have changed compared to the price level!
My employer has noted that we will NOT get a raise this year. We will get a 'bonus' in December equal to 2% of our salary. But as the admincritters can not be sure that they can sustain the raise, they are not committing to it.
Still 2% is the most we have had in several years, with many of those years being 0. Now, I have a reminder of the cumulative loss of my purchasing power! And Im trapped here until 2024 when I qualify for health care coverage in retirement (unless the law changes just before I get there!!)
Eggs have gone up. Actually, we needed eggs last week, but I looked ahead at the food store ads and noticed that they're on sale this week- $1.99 for 18!!! I have had to strategize my grocery shops lately.
We need an "eggs" thread, like the "gas" thread.
The eggs I just got (cheapest, no-frils) yesterday were 5.75 a dozen, and that's down from 6.05 a few weeks back.
Do you guys all live beside farms?
M.
https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2020/04/14/egg-stat-ic-about-eggs
That site (2019 data) showed that Iowa, Indiana and Ohio are the top 3 egg producing areas. My area of the state, Im sure, gets too hot to be a good egg producing area. I do have a coworker that has a portable (mobile/moveable ) chicken coup. But they are not for egg production as much as a preference for a freezer full of chickens. (He has 15 acres I think, and also fills his freezer with a fresh lamb once or twice a year).
anyway, I dont know my nearest industrial egg producing area. I would not be surprised it is in MS, AL, or Ark, but I could be wrong.
https://unitedegg.com/facts-stats/
This link has the top 10 producers (and none are MS or AL!)
More inflation evidence: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
Two weeks ago the democrats were projected to win 55 and the republicans 45.
I've never seen an election season where higher inflation did not harm the party in charge.
Quote from: evil_physics_witchcraft on November 02, 2022, 07:49:59 PM
Eggs have gone up. Actually, we needed eggs last week, but I looked ahead at the food store ads and noticed that they're on sale this week- $1.99 for 18!!! I have had to strategize my grocery shops lately.
Ha! That's the pre-pandemic price. They were more than $6 a dozen a week ago. Half and half which used to be below $3 is now well above $4. Produce too has gone up significantly. Broccoli rabe, which sells by the bunch is now almost $4--used to be $2-something pre-pandemic.
Slightly tangential, but am I the only one that finds this automatic scrutiny of prices unusual? In reality, I'm thankful my income is sufficient that I don't have to choose whether or not to buy some ordinary item based on price, so I don't really pay attention. Some people, like my *wife, pay close attention to things like gasoline prices, but I don't because I'm always going to buy gasoline when I need it, so the fact that it's gone up or down a few cents since last week doesn't really matter.
Am I a unicorn?
(*who is, unsurprisingly, in a similar financial situation to me)
Quote from: marshwiggle on November 03, 2022, 05:16:27 AM
Slightly tangential, but am I the only one that finds this automatic scrutiny of prices unusual? In reality, I'm thankful my income is sufficient that I don't have to choose whether or not to buy some ordinary item based on price, so I don't really pay attention. Some people, like my *wife, pay close attention to things like gasoline prices, but I don't because I'm always going to buy gasoline when I need it, so the fact that it's gone up or down a few cents since last week doesn't really matter.
Am I a unicorn?
(*who is, unsurprisingly, in a similar financial situation to me)
Scrutiny of
individual prices is not weird when the item to be purchased is a large part of your income -- like a car or a house! :-)
For everyday things as long as the extra expenses for keeping your original bundle don't add up to much, it doesn't pay to pay too much attention. If the extra expenses got big, one would have to pay attention.
Some prices are salient to many, like gasoline, even though gas eats up only 2.6% of the average budget. That's because we buy the same thing regularly, and we can't avoid noticing the price. And everybody writes about it.
In either case one gets benefits from adjusting to relative price changes -- egg prices up, eat more cheese; heating oil price up, wear a sweater. You see, wool and heating oil are substitutes.
[By the by, one mustn't confuse inflation with changes in relative prices. Inflation is an average of all price rising. Put differently, rising prices on average is the definition of inflation, not the cause.]
My barometer is breakfast cereal. Pre-pandemic the "good" breakfast cereal (Basic4 is a staple at our house, grains and fruit mixed in) ran ~$5 a box, with frequent BOGO specials. The good but cheaper was ~$4 a box. Now the "good" cereal is $7 a box. Too expensive for us, and I haven't seen a BOGO special for the good brand at the grocery store in months.
If we go to Target, the prices tend to be ~ $1-2 less per box for most anything. I'm now making much more frequent Target runs primarily for cereal, which means I also buy other things at Target more frequently as well. The Walmart is a poke away, so I'm less likely to comparison shop there.
We are bracing for grain prices to get even worse this winter with the Ukraine situation.
Quote[By the by, one mustn't confuse inflation with changes in relative prices. Inflation is an average of all price rising. Put differently, rising prices on average is the definition of inflation, not the cause.]
I just typed in a question to see what portion of the population makes more than 160,000 (the new Social Security Income Cap). The answer was a range, but it showed only 6.44. At the old cap it was 8.37.
Now I know that some of those folks will get raises, but THEY likely dont work for a state government!
Just sayin that as a state employee, I am now really feeling the increase in the general price level (that I am not offsetting by increases in my nominal wage.... BIG inflation, and NO Raise.)
Anyway, Inflation Is Real!
Wal Mart is expensive on steaks for some reason. Same here, but its still one of the least expensive groceries.
A large supermarket here had a steak for $553. It was a misprint of course. Imagine a customer buying it.
QuoteA large supermarket here had a steak for $553.
How big was the steak? :-)
To tie two threads together, it is possible that even with huge jackpots the number of Powerball tickets sold is declining.
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2022/11/03/powerball-jackpot-billion-iowa-mega-millions-lottery/stories/202211030124
Astonishing egg prices probably not due to balky, DEI-hatched hens (the newborn cocks are pulped--did you know that?), but that a plague lately raged through the hen houses, and much extensive culling (aka killing) came to be. The dead lay no eggs. And, so, your omelet, fueled by the survivors' product is--more costly. Now, let's hear from the carrots.
Quote from: Juvenal on November 04, 2022, 02:10:34 PM
Astonishing egg prices probably not due to balky, DEI-hatched hens
You mean the diversity, equity, and inclusion police are harassing chickens now? God help us.
Nancy's frozen mini-quiche, 24 per package, was $7.99 a year ago, when I stocked up for the inevitable holiday covered dish office parties. Today they were $10.24. I have moved states in the meantime, but I checked my old grocery store's online site and they were $0.50 more expensive there.
If you want turkey for Thanksgiving, shop soon. I visited five stores today, looking for the particular turkey breast I know my Thanksgiving hosts like to have on hand for winter meals. Turkeys were both scarce and dear. I'm accustomed to several freezer cases full of turkeys and turkey breasts, with a selection of brands and sizes. Today, four stores had a half freezer case of turkeys and one store had just six turkeys. The one I was seeking wasn't available at Wal-Mart, Dillons, Trader Joe's, Whole Foods, or Aldi's, although three of those usually carry it. The tight supply is probably due to infected flocks being slaughtered earlier in the year, rather than inflation, but I doubt Scrooge will be sending that big turkey in the butcher's shop to the Cratchit family this year.
Am I the only one who wonders how Mrs. Cratchit felt when presented with that big feathered turkey on Christmas morning, when she didn't have sufficient stuffing or a spit big enough to roast it?
Quote from: dismalist on November 03, 2022, 02:36:26 PM
QuoteA large supermarket here had a steak for $553.
How big was the steak? :-)
Mastadon steak. Both big
and hard to come by.