Author Topic: Inflation evidence  (Read 761 times)


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Re: Inflation evidence
« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2021, 11:56:06 AM »
OK, so, sort-of partly right, with corrections?

How would "expected" inflation differ from "unexpected" inflation, then?

I don't recall at all its being predictable, but that was a loooonnnggg time ago I took that course...


Are you kidding? That's an A for the times! Way more than half right for the present.

The Phillips Curve I described wasn't yet around for Samuelson's 6th edition.

The Federal Reserve had a target inflation rate of 2%. It usually undershot a little. It was eminently predictable, hence expected. And in spite of low inflation we had very low unemployment.

The current experience, on the other hand,  was hard to predict, not least because of the Covid shock, and the unknown response of the Fed and the government deficit to that shock.

More generally, if the Fed jumps around a lot, then inflation is hard to predict.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2021, 11:59:31 AM by dismalist »
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Re: Inflation evidence
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2021, 12:10:24 PM »
Are you kidding? That's an A for the times! Way more than half right for the present.


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Re: Inflation evidence
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2021, 04:50:38 PM »
Just today I saw a medium bottle of Listerine being sold for $6.  That seemed a bit high to me.   

A few months ago I found a website with prices for about 100 commodities.  All but 5 items were up over 10% YoY.  The only exceptions that I recall were shrimp and potassium chloride.   Personally I would prefer that stores raise prices for item in short supply rather than have empty shelves.  Right now I am not seeing bare shelves.  Things should get really interesting come Christmas time with the current container ship pile up at the ports.

Precious metals prices are down from a few months ago.  Maybe all of this excess liquidity is going into stocks  and real estate.   
« Last Edit: October 10, 2021, 05:09:32 PM by Anselm »
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Re: Inflation evidence
« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2022, 03:47:50 PM »
'Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.'

So there's a lot of inflation news to catch up on. I went to a sub shop today. Fish and chips and a soda, $22.50. An extra tiny little plastic thing with tartar sauce, another 75 cents. I have never been charged for extra tartar sauce. How tacky can you get?
Thing is, they stay busy. I'm working more hours per week than I've ever worked since my early 20's, so I don't have much time for cooking or grocery shopping. I have to eat out. But I don't understand why everyone does. If they didn't have business, they would have to lower their prices.
Wife still believes none of this inflation has anything to do with Joe Biden and the democrats. Then again, all of her news comes from left-biased outlets.