Inflation evidence

[clean]

On Thursday I went to Walmart for supplies.  I didnt want to make another trip to the grocery store, so I peeked at the beef that was out.  I saw 3 rib eye steaks priced at just over $73!!!  that was $18.47 per pound!!  At WALMART for 'choice' grade beef. 

I went to the grocery store yesterday.  I got 2 steaks for $2 less per pound for better quality beef, I think. 
I did see that corn was almost 50 cents an ear and lettuce was just under $1.5 a head!
They had green beans on sale for just under $1 a pound, but  the beans were already in bags, and the beans were poor quality, full of leaves and stems!  So for that price, after you culled out the garbage, you would end up with a much higher price! 

Anything of note in your area reflecting the inflation situation?

[Parasaurolophus]

I doubt that's inflation as opposed to either (1) supply chain issues; last year's covid measures caused all kinds of havoc at farms and stockyards which are only now being felt, or (2) futures speculation (this is why grain often swings wildly, and it's what happened to lumber through last year).

[dismalist]

The rise in beef prices has been about 12% for the year, whereas the Consumer Price Index rose 5.3%. Thus in addition to the rise in the overall price level determined by Macro stuff like the money supply and the government deficit, the relative price of beef has risen because beef has suffered some idiosyncratic shocks. There have been droughts two years running. Other countries have had supply problems, so beef exports surged.

Pray for rain! :-)

[Langue_doc]

I'm not sure about the inflation factor. All I know is that prices have almost doubled in some instances. Lamb and beef are much more expensive than they were just before summer. I've also seen the rising prices in produce that I get every week.

[Parasaurolophus]

The rise in beef prices has been about 12% for the year, whereas the Consumer Price Index rose 5.3%. Thus in addition to the rise in the overall price level determined by Macro stuff like the money supply and the government deficit, the relative price of beef has risen because beef has suffered some idiosyncratic shocks. There have been droughts two years running. Other countries have had supply problems, so beef exports surged.

Pray for rain! :-)

Right, I forgot about the droughts.

[mahagonny]

A single serving of homemade chicken soup at my neighborhood sub and pizza joint is $5.75 up from $4 one year ago.

[dismalist]

Well, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)

[clean]

Well, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)

Perhaps Beefeater Gin?

[dismalist]

Well, the alcoholic beverage component of the consumer price index increased a mere 2.5% for the year compared to the overall CPI increase of 5.3%. Thus, I am hit less hard than others. And, if beef continues to rise in price so much, I will switch to more booze! :-)

Perhaps Beefeater Gin?

Actually, I'm a wino, but if this were really bundling, I'd be first in line! :-)

Cheers.

[RatGuy]

I have the impression that I read in a other thread that someone was making the case for investing in a freezer, and stockpiling chicken. Do we expect to be without beef and chicken for most of the 21-22 winter season? Is such a shortage expected? Honestly asking.

[Parasaurolophus]

I have the impression that I read in a other thread that someone was making the case for investing in a freezer, and stockpiling chicken. Do we expect to be without beef and chicken for most of the 21-22 winter season? Is such a shortage expected? Honestly asking.

There was a chicken shortage a couple months ago because of disruptions to meatpacking. Dunno to what extent it's resolved, being vegetarian.

I wouldn't expect meatlessness, since the US mostly supplies its own meats (and doesn't rely on immigrant labor to truck it around), unlike some places. It's just that I'd expect prices to go up in response to things like meatpacking problems, previous culls due to drought, better prices abroad, etc. Unless everyone panic-buys a whole cow in anticipation, anyway.

Dunno about more seasonal meats, though. It wouldn't take much to disrupt the Thanksgiving/Christmas turkey supply for those particular days. Beef and chicken  are year-round meats, so I'd think those supply chains are more resilient.

[ciao_yall]

Chickens are pretty quick from egg to meat so that supply chain is able to handle fluctuations. I wouldn't worry about shortages or long-lasting inflation.

Beef takes longer so those prices would be more sensitive if there was a slowdown in production.

[mamselle]

As a curious onlooker from long-ago remembered Econ claseses...

Isn't there a structural difference, though, between costs rising for various reasons--like supply/demand, transport, etc.--and what's considered in classic economics terms to be inflation, which is based on monetary policy, gold prices, etc.?

I might have this wrong, too, but I think I recall that my old Samuelson text said something like <6%inflation was necessary, or even good, to be able to maintain employment levels, and that 3% unemployment should be taken as a structural constant because, Phillips curves? (I could get up and look for it but it's buried behind the Art History books at the moment...)

So, is it accurate to call all increases "inflation," per se, and do we need to worry about all up to some certain point because of the "rising tide" floating the income "boats" (to the degree CoL ties exist), as well?

I'm, of course, prepared to be corrected...

;--》

M.

[dismalist]

As a curious onlooker from long-ago remembered Econ claseses...

Isn't there a structural difference, though, between costs rising for various reasons--like supply/demand, transport, etc.--and what's considered in classic economics terms to be inflation, which is based on monetary policy, gold prices, etc.?

Yes. The first leads to a change in relative prices, the second to a change in the overall price level.

I might have this wrong, too, but I think I recall that my old Samuelson text said something like <6%inflation was necessary, or even good, to be able to maintain employment levels, and that 3% unemployment should be taken as a structural constant because, Phillips curves? (I could get up and look for it but it's buried behind the Art History books at the moment...)

Necessary inflation is not the right descriptor. If the inflation is expected, no problem for unemployment: The Phillips curve [tradeoff between inflation and unemployment] is vertical. Downward sloping Phillips curve [more unemployment when inflation is lower] only when inflation is unexpected.

So, is it accurate to call all increases "inflation," per se, and do we need to worry about all up to some certain point because of the "rising tide" floating the income "boats" (to the degree CoL ties exist), as well?

It's necessary for clear thinking to separate changes in relative prices from changes in the overall price level.

If one's wages change with the cost of living one can forget overall inflation, and just worry about relative price changes. And wages will change thusly, but not right away when the inflation is unexpected, though they will respond quickly when the inflation expected.

I'm, of course, prepared to be corrected...

;--》

M.

[mamselle]

OK, so, sort-of partly right, with corrections?

How would "expected" inflation differ from "unexpected" inflation, then?

I don't recall at all its being predictable, but that was a loooonnnggg time ago I took that course...

M.