Fall 2020 Enrollment numbers

[tuxthepenguin]

I expect a fair number of people to look at their options and conclude that a year of video games and junk food is better than burning through financial aid for a suboptimal college experience.

You're assuming video games and junk food will be on their list of options. A lot of parents are going to be facing a reduced income, and they're going to calculate the cost of the extra food and other expenses that come with having them at home playing video games all day. That type of student will disproportionately enroll at the local community college. And whether they have classes online or in person, they will be able to use financial aid to cover the cost of an apartment and food. The financial aid is a new stream of cash coming in. They'll take advantage of it.

[lightning]

I haven't seen numbers for the incoming class yet, but we are worried about international students, who make up ~20% of undergrads and a much larger proportion of some of the masters programs-- even if they want to come, consulates are closed and visas are not being processed. We may have options for them to start online from home and then arrive on campus when their visas come through. The good news is that as a pretty selective university we can probably compensate at least at the undergrad level by going to our domestic wait listed students-- it will be the lucky year for some students on the cusp of admission.

I don't think we'll have a problem with current students not returning at all. So far, my fall class is about where it normally is before the first years enroll in July. Big question is whether I'll be teaching it in person, hybrid, or online -- at least its a big lecture course, so less is lost if we have to go back online then was lost trying to teach my seminar online (though we limbed through OK).

Losing even more international students is what worries me the most. We already took a huge hit in international enrollment after the 2016 elections, and this pretty much kills off the remaining international students who otherwise would have been willing to put up with the airborne xenophobia.

[Wahoo Redux]

Three of my classes at full capacity.
One has over a dozen.
And my grad class has a handful but it should fill as grad students arrive on campus.

All my classes will run next semester.

Overall admin is predicting a drop in freshman enrollment, however.  May have an effect on staffing. 

[spork]

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

Since the survey is not comprehensive, your university might still have open slots that it is trying to fill even if it is not on the list.

[tuxthepenguin]

Three of my classes at full capacity.
One has over a dozen.
And my grad class has a handful but it should fill as grad students arrive on campus.

All my classes will run next semester.

Overall admin is predicting a drop in freshman enrollment, however.  May have an effect on staffing.

The enrollment in my undergrad course is a lot better than it's been in years. That might be informative. It's for juniors and seniors and it provides students with specific job skills (not entirely, but much of the class is devoted to job skills). Maybe there will be a shift in the types of classes students want.

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

Since the survey is not comprehensive, your university might still have open slots that it is trying to fill even if it is not on the list.

I didn't check if mine is on the list. I work at a large public that tries to accommodate all qualified applicants. I'm not familiar with the concept of "open slots" in April - there are open slots the first day of classes.

[Puget]

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

Since the survey is not comprehensive, your university might still have open slots that it is trying to fill even if it is not on the list.

Interesting- thanks for the link. We are not on the list-- I assume if we have open slots we are going to our waitlist, not new applications.
The places in my state on the list were about what you would predict-- little non-selective LACs many of which are familiar from "dire financial straights", and the less-selective publics, which I assume normally enroll students through the summer anyway (and may end up with a counter-cyclical increase in enrollment** I'm guessing).

**I was in grad school at a big state flagship when the '08 recession hit--the undergraduate yield rate went WAY up, as a lot of students who may otherwise have gone to privates or out of state where informed by their parents that finical circumstances had changed and in-state flagship was going to have to do. It was a mess-- they ended up having to house a bunch of students in hotels until dorm space opened up from the usual rate of students not returning spring semester, and there was a mad scramble to add extra sections of classes. This is obviously not a normal recession, so maybe it will be different, but a repeat of this seems like a real possibility for public universities.

[apl68]

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

Since the survey is not comprehensive, your university might still have open slots that it is trying to fill even if it is not on the list.

Interesting- thanks for the link. We are not on the list-- I assume if we have open slots we are going to our waitlist, not new applications.
The places in my state on the list were about what you would predict-- little non-selective LACs many of which are familiar from "dire financial straights", and the less-selective publics, which I assume normally enroll students through the summer anyway (and may end up with a counter-cyclical increase in enrollment** I'm guessing).

**I was in grad school at a big state flagship when the '08 recession hit--the undergraduate yield rate went WAY up, as a lot of students who may otherwise have gone to privates or out of state where informed by their parents that finical circumstances had changed and in-state flagship was going to have to do. It was a mess-- they ended up having to house a bunch of students in hotels until dorm space opened up from the usual rate of students not returning spring semester, and there was a mad scramble to add extra sections of classes. This is obviously not a normal recession, so maybe it will be different, but a repeat of this seems like a real possibility for public universities.

The schools on the list in our state were mostly HBACs with notoriously bad finances.

[Vkw10]

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

Since the survey is not comprehensive, your university might still have open slots that it is trying to fill even if it is not on the list.

Interesting- thanks for the link. We are not on the list-- I assume if we have open slots we are going to our waitlist, not new applications.
The places in my state on the list were about what you would predict-- little non-selective LACs many of which are familiar from "dire financial straights", and the less-selective publics, which I assume normally enroll students through the summer anyway (and may end up with a counter-cyclical increase in enrollment** I'm guessing).

**I was in grad school at a big state flagship when the '08 recession hit--the undergraduate yield rate went WAY up, as a lot of students who may otherwise have gone to privates or out of state where informed by their parents that finical circumstances had changed and in-state flagship was going to have to do. It was a mess-- they ended up having to house a bunch of students in hotels until dorm space opened up from the usual rate of students not returning spring semester, and there was a mad scramble to add extra sections of classes. This is obviously not a normal recession, so maybe it will be different, but a repeat of this seems like a real possibility for public universities.

The schools on the list in our state were mostly HBACs with notoriously bad finances.

Not surprised to see my school on the list, both given what I've heard about our enrollment and knowing that we lose students when the state flagship admits from their waitlist. I am surprised to see the state flagship on the list.

[polly_mer]

I expect a fair number of people to look at their options and conclude that a year of video games and junk food is better than burning through financial aid for a suboptimal college experience.

You're assuming video games and junk food will be on their list of options. A lot of parents are going to be facing a reduced income, and they're going to calculate the cost of the extra food and other expenses that come with having them at home playing video games all day. That type of student will disproportionately enroll at the local community college. And whether they have classes online or in person, they will be able to use financial aid to cover the cost of an apartment and food. The financial aid is a new stream of cash coming in. They'll take advantage of it.

Where I live, the families that cannot afford to have the aspiring college student just stay home will much more likely be having the aspiring student take one of the open jobs and risk getting sick.  Because community college is relatively cheap here and is either a good drive away or will be completely online, the financial aid trade-off isn't in favor of attending college.  You can make much more money by working and saving the financial aid term for when one can go to the 4-year institution. 

One thing that was very sad to watch at Super Dinky was how many students ran out of financial aid terms because they took a few classes here, a few classes there, and somehow came up to the end of their number of financial aid terms without earning a degree.  Those sagas are known here, too, among those who are so close to the edge that almost no one goes to college full-time to finish in just 4 years.  Many of these students who will instead be working this year would likely have been starting part-time anyway because they need to work to support their families even in the good, before times.

For those of us locally who can afford to have the aspiring college student stay home, the likelihood that attending community college for a term or two is a net overall savings is low.  Elite institutions don't accept most transfer credit and the on-campus experience for the networking is a good fraction of why the elite institutions are worth the extra money.  I live in a weird place in which people who go to the state flagship university are viewed as "losers" so community college is viewed as the place where HS students get a jump on college through dual enrollment and community members take classes in, say, art and languages for their own amusement.

The students from those families are definitely more likely to be staying home and playing video games than burning through their lifetime financial aid eligibility with community college classes that aren't going to transfer.  Many of those students will have already maxed out their dual enrollment credits so there's little to nothing to take at a community college if those credits transfer.

[spork]

Boston College has already gone to its wait list, after sticking with the traditional May 1 deadline.

[Caracal]

My class numbers look fairly similar to normal, although it is always hard to tell. The intro classes in the fall obviously tend to grow a lot when freshmen start doing preregistration in the summer. I also just never understand what factors influence students who register in the last week before class starts.

[dr_codex]

My class numbers look fairly similar to normal, although it is always hard to tell. The intro classes in the fall obviously tend to grow a lot when freshmen start doing preregistration in the summer. I also just never understand what factors influence students who register in the last week before class starts.

Sometimes it's a money thing. Students with financial holds at my place cannot register.

[polly_mer]

CHE is reporting enrollment numbers down and worry that they will stay down

[Caracal]

My class numbers look fairly similar to normal, although it is always hard to tell. The intro classes in the fall obviously tend to grow a lot when freshmen start doing preregistration in the summer. I also just never understand what factors influence students who register in the last week before class starts.

Sometimes it's a money thing. Students with financial holds at my place cannot register.

Yeah, I'm sure that's true. The effect on my classes just varies enormously. Sometimes I'll have a class that I'm worried won't make and in that last week I suddenly get a ton of students. Other times I'll have classes that get decent numbers in preregistration, but aren't full and the numbers remain basically the same.

[no1capybara]

Your university might be on this list: https://www.nacacnet.org/collegeopenings.

My college is on that list.  We are down 180 incoming students from this time last year.  $4 million budget shortfall.  Now ACT/SATs are optional.  We are in trouble.