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Started by aside, June 05, 2019, 09:01:13 PM

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archaeo42

Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Any chance of ordering some online? I have to admit, I was surprised spousal unit was able to get 2 multipacks of tissues on the last big grocery run while nearly all the other paper products were sold out.
"The Guide is definitive. Reality is frequently inaccurate."

polly_mer

Quote from: archaeo42 on April 21, 2020, 04:39:21 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Any chance of ordering some online? I have to admit, I was surprised spousal unit was able to get 2 multipacks of tissues on the last big grocery run while nearly all the other paper products were sold out.

We did get a nice package of handkerchiefs from online ordering.  The powdered milk took 3 weeks to get to us and it's not at all looking good for paper products in a timely manner.

We still have adequate other paper products, but it's weird to be in allergy season and only have one regular box and two little boxes on the pantry shelf when we usually go through multiple regular boxes per week during this season.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

Puget

Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 08:45:38 AM
Quote from: archaeo42 on April 21, 2020, 04:39:21 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Any chance of ordering some online? I have to admit, I was surprised spousal unit was able to get 2 multipacks of tissues on the last big grocery run while nearly all the other paper products were sold out.

We did get a nice package of handkerchiefs from online ordering.  The powdered milk took 3 weeks to get to us and it's not at all looking good for paper products in a timely manner.

We still have adequate other paper products, but it's weird to be in allergy season and only have one regular box and two little boxes on the pantry shelf when we usually go through multiple regular boxes per week during this season.

Amazon is prioritizing Subscribe & Save orders over one time orders, so IF you can add the products you usually get regularly as a recurring order (recurring can be as little as every 6 months, and you can always cancel or skip deliveries later) that can ensure a steady supply. That is how I now find myself in possession of 48 roles of my usual TP and a stockpile of Kleenex. I tend to put all the stuff I don't want to run out of and don't want to have to think about on there-- cat food and litter, trash bags, bathroom items, etc.
"Never get separated from your lunch. Never get separated from your friends. Never climb up anything you can't climb down."
–Best Colorado Peak Hikes

polly_mer

Quote from: Puget on April 21, 2020, 10:13:52 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 08:45:38 AM
Quote from: archaeo42 on April 21, 2020, 04:39:21 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Any chance of ordering some online? I have to admit, I was surprised spousal unit was able to get 2 multipacks of tissues on the last big grocery run while nearly all the other paper products were sold out.

We did get a nice package of handkerchiefs from online ordering.  The powdered milk took 3 weeks to get to us and it's not at all looking good for paper products in a timely manner.

We still have adequate other paper products, but it's weird to be in allergy season and only have one regular box and two little boxes on the pantry shelf when we usually go through multiple regular boxes per week during this season.

Amazon is prioritizing Subscribe & Save orders over one time orders, so IF you can add the products you usually get regularly as a recurring order (recurring can be as little as every 6 months, and you can always cancel or skip deliveries later) that can ensure a steady supply. That is how I now find myself in possession of 48 roles of my usual TP and a stockpile of Kleenex. I tend to put all the stuff I don't want to run out of and don't want to have to think about on there-- cat food and litter, trash bags, bathroom items, etc.

We purposely don't have any standing subscriptions with Amazon and only order things we cannot get easily in town.  We're in a small enough town that if the grocery store goes under, the next choice is an hour away.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

ciao_yall

Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 18, 2020, 03:38:19 AM
Poster starts a thread identical to the one they started before. Like they were hoping for a different answer.

Hope springs eternal in many hearts, especially in the face of all evidence and unexpected consensus on probable outcomes.  Those underdog movies are very influential among certain adults.

<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Interesting. Plenty of it in the SF Bay Area, and I have been to stores in several counties. We aren't having much of an allergy season yet.

TP and paper towels, on the other hand, are scarce. The other day I found multipacks of both (interthreaduality) and I still feel a sense of glee that we are now stocked up for the duration.

polly_mer

Quote from: ciao_yall on April 22, 2020, 07:44:20 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 21, 2020, 04:30:34 AM
Quote from: bacardiandlime on April 18, 2020, 03:38:19 AM
Poster starts a thread identical to the one they started before. Like they were hoping for a different answer.

Hope springs eternal in many hearts, especially in the face of all evidence and unexpected consensus on probable outcomes.  Those underdog movies are very influential among certain adults.

<unrelated>
Our trips to the grocery store are not great.  We have been unable to get facial tissue for a month.  Meat is iffy, especially if you'd like a particular type at less than several multiples of the normal cost.  Fresh vegetables were iffy under normal conditions this time of year; now, canned is very much preferred as being much less wasteful.  I haven't gone myself, but I don't see any reason why Mr. Mer would be lying about what we can get and why facial tissue has not been bought when he's the allergy sufferer.

Interesting. Plenty of it in the SF Bay Area, and I have been to stores in several counties. We aren't having much of an allergy season yet.

TP and paper towels, on the other hand, are scarce. The other day I found multipacks of both (interthreaduality) and I still feel a sense of glee that we are now stocked up for the duration.

We started allergy season early here.  We have an interesting local phenomenon where most people become allergic to the pollen of a specific, very-common-here-and-hard-to-irradicate tree after living here 5-10 years.  Thus, "everyone" who has been here for at least 10 years all suffer together when that tree blooms. 

I'm not allergic yet, but some days with the wind from the correct direction, one can see the waves of pollen coming from the forest and no one needs to be allergic for the resulting physical clogging from just the sheer amount of pollen along with the non-insignificant-amounts-of dust carried on the wind as well.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

polly_mer

In some cases, there is only one ethical message for responsible adults to promote, even if the harshest consequences for going against the message aren't immediate for everyone every time.

Don't drink and drive.

Don't walk on the train tracks.

Don't play in the street.

Don't go to graduate school in fields where most of the jobs that advertise for that specific degree in that specific field are faculty jobs.


To advise otherwise in an effort to be even-handed/civil/restrained should be met with responses along the lines of "Blue-Check Twitter savaged The New York Times over a tweet and an article that carried the mind-boggling suggestion that only 'some experts' believe that President Donald Trump's suggestions about the internal consumption of disinfectant are dangerous."

Sometimes, there really is only one side to a discussion for those who have all the relevant data and want the best for all involved.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

mahagonny

Quote from: polly_mer on April 26, 2020, 06:40:19 AM
In some cases, there is only one ethical message for responsible adults to promote, even if the harshest consequences for going against the message aren't immediate for everyone every time.

Don't drink and drive.

Don't walk on the train tracks.

Don't play in the street.

Don't go to graduate school in fields where most of the jobs that advertise for that specific degree in that specific field are faculty jobs.


To advise otherwise in an effort to be even-handed/civil/restrained should be met with responses along the lines of "Blue-Check Twitter savaged The New York Times over a tweet and an article that carried the mind-boggling suggestion that only 'some experts' believe that President Donald Trump's suggestions about the internal consumption of disinfectant are dangerous."

Sometimes, there really is only one side to a discussion for those who have all the relevant data and want the best for all involved.

You prompt me to ask:
Your problem is not the people who pursue the graduate studies. It's the people who offer them and the colleges that advertise them.  By your own account, you couldn't do what they do and maintain the sense of ethics that you see yourself having. And you are convinced your sense of ethics is the only one responsible adults may have. So what are you going to do now that you see you are not being listened to? Are you going to get a plan to shut them down?

polly_mer

The seductive part of the Professor Sparklepony pitch is that obtaining a faculty job at a regional comprehensive or a S(mall) Liberal Arts College doesn't seem like it would be that hard, regardless of what the numbers state.  After all, once one is ready to attend graduate school, one has interacted with many faculty members who are clearly normal people, not untouchable, unattainable gods.

Those faculty are smart, hardworking, and knowledgeable people, so becoming a faculty member at one of those places seems achievable based on knowing those real people who have those jobs.  Those folks aren't far-removed-from-normal-life like literal rock stars or NBA/NFL/MLB draftees.  They are normal people who shop at the community grocery store, wear clothes from Walmart, and have families with snotty-nosed kids.  Coming up to the level of qualifications that the faculty have will be hard work, but it doesn't seem unattainable in the same way that becoming LeBron James or Justin Bieber does.

Even the "don't go" message from Professor Sparklepony's more realistic neighbor across the hall usually doesn't have the necessary effect, because that's another normal person who is trying to explain that people don't get the job that that realistic neighbor has.  The conflict between message and medium is pretty clear.  Even the "you can't have my job" message will be hard to hear from someone who clearly has that job so the job exists and there is no notice like "we're closing the entire X department next month to have zero professors" prominently posted.

Statistics mean little to people who aren't already numbers folks.  There's a 10% chance of success registers, as it should, at non-zero.  However, rephrasing that as 90% change (i.e., extremely probable outcome) still won't get through to the people who can do basic math because that's still not 100%.

Even flat out numbers tend to not work because the fields with the worst job prospects are generally the ones in which one can skate on math knowledge.  Nevertheless, in case it helps someone, I'm doing a different calculation in an effort to help with messaging.

Say a field has 1200 PhDs graduated every year and 800 TT jobs.  This is a brand-new field so this is year one (to make the math simple and the point crystal clear) for a pretty good situation.

Assumptions:

* All of the jobs of a given year are filled.

* Everyone who takes a job comes has never previously had one.

* The number of TT jobs remains constant at 800 per year.

* The graduating cohort number remains constant at 1200 per year.



Years of Cohorts     New Jobs     Pool Size    Running Total TT   Still Looking



1                               800              1200        800                    400


2                               800              1600       1600                   800


3                               800              2000       2400                  1200


4                               800              2400       3200                  1600


5                               800              2800       4000                  2000


...


10                              800             4800       8000                  4000


20                              800             8800      16000                 8000




At the end of year five, there are 4000 people gainfully employed as TT faculty, but 2000 people still looking who are qualified in the same sense. 

With a 2/3 success rate, but a continuing growing pool of those who hang in there another year on the job search, only about half the qualified people get jobs.

It is left as an exercise to the reader to do the calculation, when:

* the jobs/newly qualified people changes to 0.1 instead of 0.67

* the number of jobs available every year decreases through a combination of allowing other qualifications for similar jobs (e.g., adjuncts with master's degrees), cuts to majors that correspond to cuts with faculty, and larger sections

* the pools grow faster because the number of people becoming qualified is not decreasing at nearly the same rate as the jobs are declining and the assumption of everyone who gets a job didn't previously have one is violated so the experienced TT people will get the new TT jobs and not leave a corresponding vacancy.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

polly_mer

#159
Quote from: mahagonny on April 27, 2020, 04:22:17 AM
Quote from: polly_mer on April 26, 2020, 06:40:19 AM
In some cases, there is only one ethical message for responsible adults to promote, even if the harshest consequences for going against the message aren't immediate for everyone every time.

Don't drink and drive.

Don't walk on the train tracks.

Don't play in the street.

Don't go to graduate school in fields where most of the jobs that advertise for that specific degree in that specific field are faculty jobs.


To advise otherwise in an effort to be even-handed/civil/restrained should be met with responses along the lines of "Blue-Check Twitter savaged The New York Times over a tweet and an article that carried the mind-boggling suggestion that only 'some experts' believe that President Donald Trump's suggestions about the internal consumption of disinfectant are dangerous."

Sometimes, there really is only one side to a discussion for those who have all the relevant data and want the best for all involved.

You prompt me to ask:
Your problem is not the people who pursue the graduate studies. It's the people who offer them and the colleges that advertise them.  By your own account, you couldn't do what they do and maintain the sense of ethics that you see yourself having. And you are convinced your sense of ethics is the only one responsible adults may have. So what are you going to do now that you see you are not being listened to? Are you going to get a plan to shut them down?

Libertarian here, so people are allowed to make bad choices after being given all the best advice.  My ethical duty is to say, "Don't play on the train tracks", ensure reasonable signs exist, and that physical barriers make it hard for someone to inadvertently wander on.  If adults want to shout insults at me while climbing over the fence and flipping me the bird, then my conscience is clear.  I just hope the train passengers don't end up paying the price for someone who refused to heed the message for the common good.

I disagree that my problem is with the people who offer graduate programs that do indeed prepare people to be faculty as well as allow for great depth of study in a particular field with proper mentorship and acculturation to being an expert in that field.  We need faculty in all fields, even those where far more people want full-time faculty jobs than we can reasonable support based on any accounting method.  We need those faculty to be excellent. 

From just a systems standpoint, we cannot reduce the number of graduate students in those fields to zero because we will need replacements and options on growth in areas we don't currently know exist (e.g., digital humanities didn't exist 100 years ago, but is certainly something in which we need some experts).

From a good conscience standpoint, we cannot limit education to only those who will obtain a specific job postgraduation and still call ourselves supporters of higher ed.  Education is not just about jobs, as people repeat ad nauseam wherever humanities folks gather.  That assertion is no less true at the graduate level.  It is a mistake to attempt to change graduate education to focusing on getting a specific job postgraduation for "everyone" in the cohort instead of promoting lifelong, diverse education that explores the world in terms of what humans do for work, intellectual satisfaction, and problem solving that needs to be done such that pay is available.

However, the blunt message has to be "don't go to grad school in these fields" and not bury the message in a lot of caveats so that people who can thrive at doing anything else will go do that and be a success there instead of contributing to the glut in the academic job market for certain fields. 

It's much easier to ignore a message when it has a lot of caveats, details, and possibilities instead of being a stark "Don't".  I've been in situations in which I made a left turn on red with 8 lanes where that wasn't legal.  However, the rule of "no left on red" gains nothing by the special case caveats of "unless it's midnight, there is no other traffic, and you've waited literally 10 minutes by the clock after you started timing so it's clear that light is not going to change to allow you to legally proceed".

Thus, I'm going to continue to double down on "Don't go in these fields" in an effort to affect individual humans to choose something good for them instead of assuming I know what's best for everyone in a complex system and insisting on putting more and more rules as each new problem arises from a complex system that will be messy since individual humans are involved.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

mahagonny

#160
Then you are stating that 'we' need people who listened to your vehement, repetitious 'advice' (I'd call it more of a command) and ignored it, but that is for them to figure out.
When should you not be ignored then?
Not logical.

FishProf

[Not Related]

If your post contains an ad hominem or name-calling, I'll ignore it.   If a lot of them do, I'll ignore you.

I'd rather have questions I can't answer, than answers I can't question.

dismalist

The trick is knowing when to stop.
That's not even wrong!
--Wolfgang Pauli

polly_mer

For those who need to hear again a different way:

Stay out of the (higher ed) arroyos!

An arroyo is the path where the flash flood will occur and wash everything, often drowning humans or animals who are present when the flood comes.

It doesn't matter how good a hiker an individual is.  If that person is in the arroyo when the flood comes, then that person loses to the big mass of water.

It doesn't matter how good your hiking boots are, how good your walking stick is, or how often you check the local weather because the relevant weather may be 100 miles away.  If you are in the arroyo when the flood comes, then you are going to have some dangerous times.

it doesn't matter how many times you have previously hiked, even in other arroyos, and was fine because no flash flood happened.  If you are in the arroyo when the flood comes, then your previous experiences are of no relevance.

What are the higher ed arroyos?

* Being contingent faculty as your majority source of income

* Being at an underresourced institution (public or private) with consistently lower than desired enrollment or refusal to limit enrollment so all students get a good quality

* Going to graduate school in certain fields where the PhD is mostly valuable for a faculty position and working only towards the faculty job.

* Focusing on something other than comps and dissertation while in grad school for the fields where a PhD is a solid credential for a professional job

Yep, the flash floods are racing down certain higher ed arroyos towards the unwary and it's probably too late for many to do much about it.  In case it isn't too late "GET OUT OF THE ARROYOS!".
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!

polly_mer

#164
Quote from: mahagonny on April 28, 2020, 09:42:37 AM
Then you are stating that 'we' need people who listened to your vehement, repetitious 'advice' (I'd call it more of a command) and ignored it, but that is for them to figure out.
I am stating that I will continue to keep standing in front of the dangerous areas and shouting, "This is a really, really bad idea.  Stop for a few minutes and let me provide information you may not have."  We get new people all the time who don't know that certain actions are bad ideas, the extent to which they are bad ideas, and why the advice would be don't, when it's clear that so many people do it (much like drunk driving in which individuals can go years of weekly risks with nothing happening).

However, my conscience is clear once I've delivered the warning and it's clear that someone has decided to make a poor decision even after acknowledging my warnings.  I have no obligation to spend my resources, time, or energy to rescue people from the entirely foreseeable consequences of the actions they chose after the warnings were clear, loud, repetitious, and otherwise hard to avoid.  If adults choose to ignore good advice, then that's on them.

If I'm right and someone is in the arroyo/on the tracks/in the street at the wrong time to end up smacked, then I get no benefit and yet someone else is damaged.  I don't even have all that much sympathy because of all the warnings.

If the timing is such that a particular someone managed to avoid being flooded/runover/hurt during one excursion, that doesn't make me wrong about the general advice.  It merely means someone got lucky this time in a dangerous situation.  The advice still stands that the smart bet is to avoid the situation.

Even if I am somehow horribly mistaken and equivalent traintracks/arroyos/streets aren't dangerous, nothing terrible happens to people who heed the advice and do something else that society needs.  We all win when people do something that has a high probability of a good result instead of betting on being the last one standing in the danger zone.

I can't in good conscience advocate that we shut down all the graduate schools because that's not the right action.  There's nothing intrinsic to graduate school itself that means people will be doing something foolish.  The right action is to change the landscape one person at a time such that going to graduate school is not the equivalent of people hiking in the arroyo and hoping that not too many people get hurt during the flash flood that happens every rainy season.
Quote from: hmaria1609 on June 27, 2019, 07:07:43 PM
Do whatever you want--I'm just the background dancer in your show!