I heard Stanford just cancelled all in person classes through the end of their winter term. Our campus has a semester schedule but we seem on the verge of cancelling in person classes -- we've been asked to submit plans as to how we would manage without class meetings. All travel, conferences, seminar speakers and our upcoming grad student recruitment have been cancelled.
What is the status on your campus?
Does anyone have a suggestion for teaching a collaborative science course online?
QuoteWhat is the status on your campus?
We are on Spring Break.
I suppose that we will learn more in 2 weeks, once people are back. I suspect that the CV19 symptoms will spike around test time (as does the mortality of grandparents seems to spike).
We have had at least 2 emails from the president (likely from the system offices) that we are restricting travels to anyplace that may have the virus. There was one email about quarantines. IF the travel was related to approved travel before March 6, then 'emergency leave' would be approved. Otherwise (if you traveled on your own authority/dime), if you can not be moved to 'work from home', you must take other leave, except you can not take 'sick leave' unless you are actually sick.
We are in a hurricane zone so all classes are supposed to have a presence on Blackboard and be ready/able to implement the Continuity Plan to go online.
All of our in-person classes have been cancelled through the end of Winter term as well. We are to do as much online as possible. Travel is cancelled. Regular campus business is still happening (they only cancelled classes because of the larger gatherings of people), but with online options for faculty and staff who need to stay home.
We're on break this coming week. The administration is concerned about a possible spread of illness with our students traveling during the break, and other schools in the area are thinking the same way. My school is considering the logistics of shifting to all online classes if need be, but hasn't mandated it at this point; they did cancel the school-sponsored trip that would have been happening now.
I think the panic response will kick in at some universities in the second week of classes after spring break. Infected but asymptomatic students will have returned to campus and since the serial interval between Covid-19 cases is estimated at 4-5 days, signs that contagion has spread will appear in week 2. Guess what? 99.99% of the time this will actually be from the usual germs students return to campus with -- mild respiratory infections, 24-48 hour GI tract infections, etc. But as soon as a few students display symptoms like fever, cough, etc., parents are going to yank Zachary and Madison back home. With class attendance steadily dropping, administrators will close the campus "out of an abundance of caution."
Quote from: clean on March 07, 2020, 06:14:45 PM
QuoteWhat is the status on your campus?
We are on Spring Break.
I suppose that we will learn more in 2 weeks, once people are back. I suspect that the CV19 symptoms will spike around test time (as does the mortality of grandparents seems to spike).
We have had at least 2 emails from the president (likely from the system offices) that we are restricting travels to anyplace that may have the virus. There was one email about quarantines. IF the travel was related to approved travel before March 6, then 'emergency leave' would be approved. Otherwise (if you traveled on your own authority/dime), if you can not be moved to 'work from home', you must take other leave, except you can not take 'sick leave' unless you are actually sick.
We are in a hurricane zone so all classes are supposed to have a presence on Blackboard and be ready/able to implement the Continuity Plan to go online.
Great point! (as does the mortality of grandparents seems to spike).
Quote from: clean on March 07, 2020, 06:14:45 PM
QuoteWhat is the status on your campus?
We are on Spring Break.
I suppose that we will learn more in 2 weeks, once people are back. I suspect that the CV19 symptoms will spike around test time (as does the mortality of grandparents seems to spike).
I live in a highly infected place, and have had a number of students sick over the past few weeks (no more on-campus classes now, as I mentioned above). I don't know if it's an overabundance of caution or people who are taking advantage (I suspect a little of both, depending on the student).
An elementary school in my area, where I've subbed in the past, isclosed today for deep cleaning while a decision is made about future plans going forward.
A student's parent attended a conference at which vital transmissions occurred, and has tested presumptively positive.
Two other nearby elementary schools as well as the middle school and high school were also closed for cleaning.
And an in-house conference/speaker series I often attend on Mondays was cancelled since this week's speaker would have been traveling from an area near WDC.
So, micro-closings, as well.
I'm starting to wonder about two larger conferences at which I'm presenting In April and May: will go check their websites now, I think.
M.
Columbia University is holding all classes online for at least two days. An employee was exposed to the coronavirus.
Does anyone have recommendations on how to teach online? I actually have videos of my lectures from prior years so its easy to give those to students for this year. I teach an intro science class and a lot of the learning happens during office hours and collaborative sections. The university has provided online message boards but I don't see how that would work for a subject where we need to discuss equations and diagrams. Has anyone had luck in science with online interactions?
It's looking like we might also cancel classes, though nothing has formally been mandated by our admins yet. I'm also in CA.
Our Provost has asked us to "consider" how we could move classes to online if needed and to have our class materials posted on Blackboard (syllabus, slides, readings, etc.). Campus is still open, no classes cancelled as of today.
This is the last week of instruction before our finals week.
There is one thread on the transfer of classes to online modalities already running (among the, what, now 6? threads I see on this virus.....)
Rather than start yet another thread, could someone index it? (I can't at the moment)
M.
Not step-by-step directions for moving courses online, but what needs to be considered if one is trying to prepare for this type of disruption: http://activelearningps.com/2020/03/09/simulating-for-instructional-continuity/ (http://activelearningps.com/2020/03/09/simulating-for-instructional-continuity/).
Apparently there was talk among administrators today about moving everything online for the remainder of the semester. No official word yet.
Only a teeny tiny number of U.S. universities are moving classes online, those few institutions are mostly located in a handful of narrow geographic areas, and over half of those few universities only view the disruptions as temporary, lasting no more than 10-14 days.
But almost every university is "talking about doing something". That is expected and appropriate.
Social media is blowing up far more so than when we had the last global health scare. Researchers are attributing this to the much more widespread usage of social media. Greater access to social media is not generally being viewed as being more helpful in keeping people properly informed. More like the reverse, if anything.
At Big Urban College, we have no nearby confirmed cases of coronavirus, no real directed special activity by the administration, and yet many faculty are freaking out already. I have already seen signs on doors stating that all office hours are cancelled, and that exams are postponed. The freaking out is even more exaggerated with many of our staff. People are taking sick leave... why...
There is always a lot of regular sickness this time of year, and usually a spike in coughs and sniffles after Spring Break at many universities.
On the plus side, my institution refilled all of the bathroom soap dispensers on Monday. Classy.
We have college-age relatives visiting us this week over their spring break. I'm seeing a lot of fingers crossed with them hoping they will get an extended spring break since their friends at various places have already had such announced. The joke has already been what nice, healthy coughs those relatives have as they arrived yesterday.
Quote from: Aster on March 10, 2020, 05:38:04 AM
On the plus side, my institution refilled all of the bathroom soap dispensers on Monday. Classy.
We now have restroom soap with moisturizer beneath memes printed from the internet on washing one's hands.
That's probably a good thing since we're hosting multiple international workshops this week at work.
Quote from: Aster on March 10, 2020, 05:38:04 AM
Social media is blowing up far more so than when we had the last global health scare. Researchers are attributing this to the much more widespread usage of social media. Greater access to social media is not generally being viewed as being more helpful in keeping people properly informed. More like the reverse, if anything.
At Big Urban College, we have no nearby confirmed cases of coronavirus, no real directed special activity by the administration, and yet many faculty are freaking out already. I have already seen signs on doors stating that all office hours are cancelled, and that exams are postponed. The freaking out is even more exaggerated with many of our staff. People are taking sick leave... why...
I think what has happened over the last few years, helped on by social media, is that any
concern has to be a
CRISIS!!!!! The media is not helping since they play into it to get eyeballs. For instance, the "climate
emergency" suggests this is something which
- has just happened
- has a quick solution
The idea that most complex problems are solved by rather mundane measures applied over a long period of time doesn't fit the news (and Twitter) cycle.
CDC preliminary estimates of influenza-related deaths in USA, October through February: 20,000-50,000.
Current count of Covid-19 deaths in USA: 26.
I wish my university's administrators would treat influenza like Covid-19.
Just learned from a former colleague at Vanderbilt that Vanderbilt has closed classes for at least the rest of the week. In-person classes are cancelled until the end of the month. They might even stay closed until the end of the semester. Apparently a study-abroad group in Spain came back with one infected student. She went straight home to quarantine, but the rest of the group got to campus, and so they are exercising some of that "abundance of caution."
https://www.wsmv.com/news/vanderbilt-cancels-class-this-week-suspends-in-person-classes-until/article_926490c0-6264-11ea-82e9-c3ffb8211314.html
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 07:14:02 AM
CDC preliminary estimates of influenza-related deaths in USA, October through February: 20,000-50,000.
Current count of Covid-19 deaths in USA: 26.
I wish my university's administrators would treat influenza like Covid-19.
I can't see how that would really be realistic. Certainly, it would be good if people were a bit less blasé about the flu. It also would be good if Universities put more pressure on outside vendors to allow for paid sick leave for workers. That said, while we don't know real numbers it is pretty apparent that Covid is a lot more dangerous, especially for people at high risk than the flu. It matters that this is new. The flu happens every year. We have a vaccine for it. That vaccine is far from perfect, but it does provide a decent amount of protection from getting a really bad case. All of this, along with the higher rates of death and serious illness means that there is a much greater threat of the medical system getting overwhelmed. It isn't like the flu is just going to go away because this other virus is out there either, so you have to think of this as adding on to the medical burden.
Well, there is certainly a burden happening right now with everybody mass-hoarding every and all medical and emergency supplies. Water?? Toilet Paper?? Why are people stockpiling 3 month supplies of toilet paper????
My grocery store and area pharmacies now have whole aisles that resemble the sets from apocalypse movies.
Well, I guess that's good news for our main regional employer, which is a tissue-paper mill.
My school just cancelled in person classes for the remainder of the term. All instruction is moving online. Students need to get out of the dorms.
Faculty here were notified that 1) students should prepare for "remote learning" by taking any needed resources with them when they depart for spring break, which officially begins Friday at 5:00 pm, and 2) we will be informed if classes will resume after spring break next week.
I'm hoping that I will not have to commute to campus for the rest of the semester.
Ohio governor just urged all campuses to go online. Several already have.
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
There are some K-12 schools that are pushing back now, arguing that students are safer in schools than they are at home.
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 03:04:05 PM
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
K-12 schools are weighing the risk of spreading infection against:
a) eliminating access to food for students on free or reduced school lunch.
b) sending kids home to working parents who are unable to stay home with them and/or older caretakers who are more vulnerable to the virus.
I don't know what the right thing to do is, but there are considerations for K-12 schools that colleges/universities don't have to factor in.
Quote from: sprout on March 10, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 03:04:05 PM
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
K-12 schools are weighing the risk of spreading infection against:
a) eliminating access to food for students on free or reduced school lunch.
b) sending kids home to working parents who are unable to stay home with them and/or older caretakers who are more vulnerable to the virus.
I don't know what the right thing to do is, but there are considerations for K-12 schools that colleges/universities don't have to factor in.
Yes, I know. It's a lesson in how badly many unwealthy children/families are treated in this country, often a product of, for example, structural racism. A lesson that will probably be ignored.
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 07:14:02 AM
CDC preliminary estimates of influenza-related deaths in USA, October through February: 20,000-50,000.
Current count of Covid-19 deaths in USA: 26.
I wish my university's administrators would treat influenza like Covid-19.
Honestly, this is such a non-equivalent comparison.
For one, the current count is a very early number- if you look at the spike of deaths, they happen well into the progression of the virus, rather than being at the outset.
For another, this is the very early stage of a spread for something that is expected to get much, much broader based on any epidemiological model we follow.
What we do know about SARS-cOV-2 as a virus is that it spreads on par with or slightly better than the Flu, and is more contagious when people are asymptomatic than the flu. This means it will spread a lot deeper into the population.
We also know that it results in much more severe illness than most seasonal flu viruses. The death rate is somewhere around an order of magnitude higher.
That suggests that if we don't take this seriously in the early stages and do something to halt the spread, we would expect to see significantly more deaths than the seasonal flu, especially among those over 60.
Quote from: sprout on March 10, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 03:04:05 PM
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
K-12 schools are weighing the risk of spreading infection against:
a) eliminating access to food for students on free or reduced school lunch.
b) sending kids home to working parents who are unable to stay home with them and/or older caretakers who are more vulnerable to the virus.
I don't know what the right thing to do is, but there are considerations for K-12 schools that colleges/universities don't have to factor in.
The other thing is that the role of kids, especially young kids in transmission is an open question. We know that kids generally get very mild versions, but in China there didn't seem to be much transmission from kids to other people either. That could be wrong and kids might be sources of transmission, but if they aren't that's another argument against shutting down schools.
MIT, Harvard, Smith, and Amherst are ending on-campus classes after spring break. Official pronouncement seems to be "don't expect to be back on campus for the remainder of the semester."
I think we'll see all the uber-elites shutting down "out of an abundance of caution."
Word came out today: We have an extra week of spring break to move our classes online for the remainder of March, at least.
I just recorded/uploaded my first online lecture this afternoon. I have no idea how well/poorly I did, and I'm not going to watch it to learn.
As of now, my university has ordered final exams canceled but hasn't given us instructions for what to do after spring break.
Most of the universities in Ohio are cancelling in-person classes (at OSU and OU, through March 30, unclear for some others): https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200309/universities-around-ohio-suspend-in-person-classes-because-of-coronavirus
Johns Hopkins, which has a big public health school, is as well, "through at least April 12": https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/10/hopkins-coronavirus-online-instruction-spring-break/
Good luck to all who will have to convert courses to online with little notice!
My university is discussing the distinct possibility of cancelling in-person classes (2 campuses in our system have done so but most have not). Faculty have been instructed to "finalize" our contingency plans even though most of us (me included) have never had to move our classes online before. All travel has been suspended.
Quote from: sprout on March 10, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 03:04:05 PM
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
K-12 schools are weighing the risk of spreading infection against:
a) eliminating access to food for students on free or reduced school lunch.
b) sending kids home to working parents who are unable to stay home with them and/or older caretakers who are more vulnerable to the virus.
I don't know what the right thing to do is, but there are considerations for K-12 schools that colleges/universities don't have to factor in.
We (I) often forget that public schools have added social and family services to their mission. Thanks for the reminder.
Quote from: lightning on March 10, 2020, 10:27:03 PM
Quote from: sprout on March 10, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Quote from: spork on March 10, 2020, 03:04:05 PM
Yet K-12 schools remain open, I assume? If so, that's doing things backward.
K-12 schools are weighing the risk of spreading infection against:
a) eliminating access to food for students on free or reduced school lunch.
b) sending kids home to working parents who are unable to stay home with them and/or older caretakers who are more vulnerable to the virus.
I don't know what the right thing to do is, but there are considerations for K-12 schools that colleges/universities don't have to factor in.
We (I) often forget that public schools have added social and family services to their mission. Thanks for the reminder.
Yes. School might be the safest/least chaotic space for children, and school food might be the *only* food some of these kids get all week.
The governor of Ohio and the Ohio Department of Health declared a state of emergency for the state and encouraged universities move to online instruction. All 14 public universities are "aligning" with this recommendation and taking action.
Quote from: rxprof on March 11, 2020, 01:59:19 AM
The governor of Ohio and the Ohio Department of Health declared a state of emergency for the state and encouraged universities move to online instruction. All 14 public universities are "aligning" with this recommendation and taking action.
For perspective from the Ohio Department of Health (https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/know-our-programs/Novel-Coronavirus/2019-nCoV), as of today:
Quote
Confirmed Cases
in Ohio: 3
Persons Under Investigation
(PUIs) in Ohio: 15
Negative PUIs
in Ohio: 14
Cumulative Number of Individuals Under
Public Health Supervision: 255
(Cumulative number of travelers referred to the Ohio Department of Health for monitoring; includes travelers who have completed their self-monitoring period. These individuals are not exhibiting symptoms of illness. Sources include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine and travelers who have voluntarily contacted local health departments upon arrival in Ohio.)
Ohio population: 11.7 million in 2018
and in 209, there were 597 murders in Ohio. Source: These Are The 10 Murder Capitals Of Ohio For 2019 (https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-murder-capitals-of-ohio/)
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 11, 2020, 05:25:36 AM
And in 2019, there were 597 murders in Ohio. Source: These Are The 10 Murder Capitals Of Ohio For 2019 (https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-murder-capitals-of-ohio/)
correction.
I'm in Ohio too, we have suspended classes until Monday so we can transition to online until March 27th, then we will re-evaluate the situation.
Fortunately I've done hybrid classes before but still need to figure out exactly what I want the students to learn in the next 8 weeks. Especially since I bet things are going to change again - either ending the semester early or staying online until the end of the semester.
Fun and games, I'll adapt.
I'm not teaching French this term, it would be interesting to figute out how to do pronunciation work, which is usually done on-the-spot with feedback during in-class reviews of homework, assigned soliloquies (《series》), dialogues, and short readings.
To say nothing of my usual practice of starting class with a folk dance, court dance, popular song, etc.
I can create WordThread files for teaching, and have done so in the past, but might need to do in-person short private lessons on Zoom for detailed return demonstrations.
My experience with Zoom as a meeting modality is not positive; too many people have different equipment and mixed abilities to use it, just for starters.
Hmm...
M.
I'm not sure if I should start a new thread, or it's OK to ask here, but my University will go online starting next week.
One of the classes I am teaching is discussion/seminar style. The primary problem I foresee is that I am hard-of-hearing (CI user), and while my hearing is good enough for face-to-face classes (sometimes I request repetition), I can't hear well over most video software.
For my lecture-based courses, I can use a chat feature and read the questions that students send my way, but I'm not sure what to do about a seminar. Any thoughts?
We're moving mostly online for the rest of the semester, according to breaking news reports of the NY governor's announcement for SUNY/CUNY systems. There appears to be an exception for lab-based classes. No details yet from my particular campus.
I don't teach a seminar, but do have student group presentations planned. We use Blackboard and I think the Collaborate tool should work for those - screen sharing, whiteboard and chat feature for questions. But this also depends on what kind of internet access students have outside of school if our computer labs are closed.
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 11, 2020, 05:25:36 AM
Quote from: rxprof on March 11, 2020, 01:59:19 AM
The governor of Ohio and the Ohio Department of Health declared a state of emergency for the state and encouraged universities move to online instruction. All 14 public universities are "aligning" with this recommendation and taking action.
For perspective from the Ohio Department of Health (https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/know-our-programs/Novel-Coronavirus/2019-nCoV), as of today:
Quote
Confirmed Cases
in Ohio: 3
Persons Under Investigation
(PUIs) in Ohio: 15
Negative PUIs
in Ohio: 14
Cumulative Number of Individuals Under
Public Health Supervision: 255
(Cumulative number of travelers referred to the Ohio Department of Health for monitoring; includes travelers who have completed their self-monitoring period. These individuals are not exhibiting symptoms of illness. Sources include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine and travelers who have voluntarily contacted local health departments upon arrival in Ohio.)
Ohio population: 11.7 million in 2018
and in 209, there were 597 murders in Ohio. Source: These Are The 10 Murder Capitals Of Ohio For 2019 (https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-murder-capitals-of-ohio/)
I really find this kind of thing pretty annoying and irresponsible right now. None of this is easy and we obviously have to try to balance risks and costs. However, someone just tested positive in Ohio and it appears to be community spread. That means that there are not just four cases but likely a lot more. The time to try to take steps that will slow down spread is now, not when you have hundreds of cases in the state. Over 800 people have died in Italy in the last two weeks. Sure, most of us aren't at really high risk, but some people are. I have friends who are immunocompromised. I'm worried about my parents and other older relatives. Social distancing is important and necessary right now.
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 11, 2020, 05:25:36 AM
Quote from: rxprof on March 11, 2020, 01:59:19 AM
The governor of Ohio and the Ohio Department of Health declared a state of emergency for the state and encouraged universities move to online instruction. All 14 public universities are "aligning" with this recommendation and taking action.
For perspective from the Ohio Department of Health (https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/know-our-programs/Novel-Coronavirus/2019-nCoV), as of today:
Quote
Confirmed Cases
in Ohio: 3
Persons Under Investigation
(PUIs) in Ohio: 15
Negative PUIs
in Ohio: 14
Cumulative Number of Individuals Under
Public Health Supervision: 255
(Cumulative number of travelers referred to the Ohio Department of Health for monitoring; includes travelers who have completed their self-monitoring period. These individuals are not exhibiting symptoms of illness. Sources include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine and travelers who have voluntarily contacted local health departments upon arrival in Ohio.)
Ohio population: 11.7 million in 2018
and in 209, there were 597 murders in Ohio. Source: These Are The 10 Murder Capitals Of Ohio For 2019 (https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-murder-capitals-of-ohio/)
For something that spreads at an exponential rate, looking at current numbers as compared to full year statistics is.... disingenuous to say the least, and completely ignoring all scientific evidence and current understanding of disease epidemiology.
The number of cases is far less important than whether those cases are clustered or spread, which indicates the degree of community presence of the disease. And I'm sure as someone with a STEM background you understand that exponential spread means that small numbers grow quite rapidly.
Quote from: OneMoreYear on March 11, 2020, 10:29:32 AM
I'm not sure if I should start a new thread, or it's OK to ask here, but my University will go online starting next week.
One of the classes I am teaching is discussion/seminar style. The primary problem I foresee is that I am hard-of-hearing (CI user), and while my hearing is good enough for face-to-face classes (sometimes I request repetition), I can't hear well over most video software.
For my lecture-based courses, I can use a chat feature and read the questions that students send my way, but I'm not sure what to do about a seminar. Any thoughts?
Does your campus use Blackboard?
You can use the groups feature of Blackboard for small-groups, typed discussions. I haven't used it but others here may have tips.
Depending on class size, it's easy to use the Blackboard message board feature for whole-class discussions. Pose questions/options for students to address and require that students reply to one or more posts. Given them a deadline by which to enter their posts.
I'm sure other Learning Management Systems have similar features.
It just takes a few schools to blew the whistle and the others will follow. No president or chancellor wants to get the blame for not closing down and students and faculty end up with the virus.
My young relatives are quite excited because their institutions are going online for the rest of the term. Somehow, that is translating into their minds as a two-month spring break. The FaceBook posts being read to us were exhorting students to just go back to their already-rented apartments in the university towns and have a big party until summer jobs begin.
One of the young relatives was looking up cheap plane tickets to various places in Europe as the announcement of all travel to Europe being suspended was made. The young relatives seriously debated how hard just flying into London and then going wherever they want would really be since that's what they did last summer as part of a planned European study abroad program. As a back-up plan, the young relatives are making road trip plans to visit their friends in better cities once they return to their home on the east coast. Only the continuing stream of friends announcing they are returning back to home city instead of staying at their colleges is slowing down that plan.
I sigh heavily as Mr. Mer and I were figuring out logistics of hosting these relatives for several weeks if they can't fly home on Friday as planned. Discussion with older relatives was how our scientific work on externally imposed fall deadlines would be affected if our employers shift to work-from-home when much of our work cannot be done off-site.
The father of the young relatives keeps sighing about how his kids don't know how privileged they are. Observing them refuse to believe that something serious is happening that warrants a change in behavior is quite interesting.
Quote from: eigen on March 11, 2020, 03:39:46 PM
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 11, 2020, 05:25:36 AM
For perspective from the Ohio Department of Health (https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/know-our-programs/Novel-Coronavirus/2019-nCoV), as of today:
Quote
Confirmed Cases
in Ohio: 3
Persons Under Investigation
(PUIs) in Ohio: 15
Negative PUIs
in Ohio: 14
Cumulative Number of Individuals Under
Public Health Supervision: 255
(Cumulative number of travelers referred to the Ohio Department of Health for monitoring; includes travelers who have completed their self-monitoring period. These individuals are not exhibiting symptoms of illness. Sources include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine and travelers who have voluntarily contacted local health departments upon arrival in Ohio.)
Ohio population: 11.7 million in 2018
And in 2019, there were 597 murders in Ohio. Source: These Are The 10 Murder Capitals Of Ohio For 2019 (https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-murder-capitals-of-ohio/)
For something that spreads at an exponential rate, looking at current numbers as compared to full year statistics is.... disingenuous to say the least, and completely ignoring all scientific evidence and current understanding of disease epidemiology.
The number of cases is far less important than whether those cases are clustered or spread, which indicates the degree of community presence of the disease. And I'm sure as someone with a STEM background you understand that exponential spread means that small numbers grow quite rapidly.
I understand exponential growth, but my point is (and has always been) that
unsustainable "solutions" are not really solutions.A state of emergency is appropriate for things such as:
- Natural disaster; storm, earthquake, volcano, etc. where the event happens over a period of days at most, and while the entire cleanup may take weeks or months, the emergency response will be over in days or weeks at most.
- Riot, civil unrest, terrorist attack, etc. where again the event happens over a period of days at most, and while the entire cleanup may take weeks or months, the emergency response will be over in days or weeks at most.
In addition, in this type of situation the emergency response can be largely met by ramping up existing infrastructure (medical, construction, military and civilian) in order to
restore normal functioning for most of the community quickly.
In cases like Covid-19, in areas that are
not in the midst of a local outbreak, a
state of emergency is misleading because
- Most of what is required is relatively low key community wide vigilance and caution, rather than large-scale infrastructure change.
- Since the length of time is likely to be weeks at least, and more likely months, the imposed conditions must allow most normal function of the community. (Any estimates I've heard suggest a vaccine is likely at least a year or 18 months away.)
Areas without outbreaks need to respond to the threat, however, the response needs to take into account the specifics of each community so that it is appropriate and
most beneficial, rather than simply dramatic so that governments can be
perceived to be "taking action".
Brown University is going remote. Classes cancelled for transition to online instruction, to start March 30. All students out of the dorms as of March 22.
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 12, 2020, 05:34:00 AM
I understand exponential growth, but my point is (and has always been) that unsustainable "solutions" are not really solutions.
A state of emergency is appropriate for things such as:
- Natural disaster; storm, earthquake, volcano, etc. where the event happens over a period of days at most, and while the entire cleanup may take weeks or months, the emergency response will be over in days or weeks at most.
- Riot, civil unrest, terrorist attack, etc. where again the event happens over a period of days at most, and while the entire cleanup may take weeks or months, the emergency response will be over in days or weeks at most.
In addition, in this type of situation the emergency response can be largely met by ramping up existing infrastructure (medical, construction, military and civilian) in order to restore normal functioning for most of the community quickly.
In cases like Covid-19, in areas that are not in the midst of a local outbreak, a state of emergency is misleading because
- Most of what is required is relatively low key community wide vigilance and caution, rather than large-scale infrastructure change.
- Since the length of time is likely to be weeks at least, and more likely months, the imposed conditions must allow most normal function of the community. (Any estimates I've heard suggest a vaccine is likely at least a year or 18 months away.)
Areas without outbreaks need to respond to the threat, however, the response needs to take into account the specifics of each community so that it is appropriate and most beneficial, rather than simply dramatic so that governments can be perceived to be "taking action".
1. Things are going to get worse with this. I'd like to think that isn't true, but the people who know what they are talking about are alarmed.
2. You can mitigate that by avoiding having large groups of people in close contact. Classes, dorms, dining halls. These are all places where something could spread really rapidly.
3. The uncertainty and the lack of knowledge about how this is all going to go combined with the pretty bad predictions from the people who know what they are talking about means that taking more extreme steps is necessary right now.
4. You're right that this is different from a hurricane in that it isn't a discrete event. And you're also right that extreme measures can't last indefinitely. However, by the fall we are going to know a whole lot more about the virus. We will have a clearer sense of exactly how bad it is, exactly which people are most at risk and a million other things. Perhaps, we will have found ways to contain it, as China and Korea seem to have had some success in doing.
5. The point is that hopefully by then it will be possible to manage things in a more focused way. But right now it just isn't possible. The goal is to flatten the epidemic curve as that graph going around shows and keep hospitals from getting totally overwhelmed which will cause more people to die.
Caracal,
The reaction will get worse, it always does. However, though the number of US cases has been dramatically increasing, probably due in part to iincreased testing, the number of deaths has been only increasing by a couple of people per week, mostly part of that initial Washington outbreak.
If it's any consolation, Disney World is crazy busy.
Quote from: Ruralguy on March 12, 2020, 08:19:26 AM
Caracal,
The reaction will get worse, it always does. However, though the number of US cases has been dramatically increasing, probably due in part to iincreased testing, the number of deaths has been only increasing by a couple of people per week, mostly part of that initial Washington outbreak.
Two weeks ago nobody had died, a week ago 12 people had died, now it is 38. Washington seems to be where it has been spreading the longest and it has had a chance to get into vulnerable populations. The same thing is going to start happening elsewhere. Two weeks ago, Italy had 29 deaths. Today it is over 800. Look, most of us are going to be fine, but claiming that this is no big deal is just bizarre.
those 'extended spring breakers' wont be going on Princess Cruise lines
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/carnival-suspends-operation-of-princess-cruises-for-2-months-over-coronavirus/2204376/
Princess has suspended cruises for 2 months. Viking River Cruises has also suspended cruises.
Travel to Italy wont 'go anywhere'. No need to travel to see the Final Four this year!
Students thinking that going online is going to be one huge party, are going to be disappointed.
With food service on campus stopped, and dorms emptied, it will be hard to party on.
For the rest of us, it is early, I suppose, but has anyone's campus officially cancelled graduation yet?
Marshy, just stop talking.
We're on spring break this week, but starting Monday will going completely online for the next month, perhaps longer. I'm worried about labs, about what my students will be missing as far as instruction and meeting course outcomes, and am curious how some of my colleagues (who still use old, yellowed, overhead sheets and never log in to the CMS) will cope. I can understand why it's being done, but at my institution, is has not been handled well. The notices have been a cross between rah rah rah we're all in this together, we can do it! and you MUST put everything online and bend over backward, accept all late work without penalty, and reinvent the wheel at the same time. I'm not sure our infrastructure can handle it. I'm in the process of setting up our CMS for video lectures and trying to plan for labs. In the message I'm composing to send out to my students I'm telling them that remote classes do not equal extended spring break. We'll see how it goes.
Quote from: Caracal on March 12, 2020, 08:35:49 AM
Quote from: Ruralguy on March 12, 2020, 08:19:26 AM
Caracal,
The reaction will get worse, it always does. However, though the number of US cases has been dramatically increasing, probably due in part to iincreased testing, the number of deaths has been only increasing by a couple of people per week, mostly part of that initial Washington outbreak.
Two weeks ago nobody had died, a week ago 12 people had died, now it is 38. Washington seems to be where it has been spreading the longest and it has had a chance to get into vulnerable populations. The same thing is going to start happening elsewhere. Two weeks ago, Italy had 29 deaths. Today it is over 800. Look, most of us are going to be fine, but claiming that this is no big deal is just bizarre.
The frustrating thing culturally is that there are only two "settings"; "CRISIS!!!" or, as you say "no big deal". There is ONE more virus people can be exposed to than a coupe of months ago; it is ONE more threat to people in vulnerable populations. People have been lulled into a sense that institutions (government, employers, etc.) are responsible for keeping us safe.
The reality is that for most of the dangers out there, our own behaviour is a far bigger factor in our risk.
It's like talking about the risks of HIV and Hep C. Intravenous drug use and unprotected sex are risk factors. OF COURSE THEY ARE; THEY WOULD BE RISKY IF NEITHER OF THOSE DISEASES EXISTED!!!!
Hand washing didn't
become some important thing in the last few weeks; it's just that now people have a
specific idea of what it helps prevent.
The point is that people who exercise appropriate levels of mindfulness and caution already have a very slightly elevated risk now, while those who give much less thought to those kinds of things already expect someone else to protect them, rather than realizing that they are in more danger than they probably realize normally and becoming more wise about these things in general would be a great benefit.
TL;DR - "no big deal" is rarely an accurate description of the risks encountered in everyday life. But "crisis" is not the only alternative.
Here's a rather thorough presentation and analysis of the epidemiology:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The suggestion of "what to do" is "social distancing." That's what seems to have stopped it in China. Main advice, stay home as much as you can until the R<1 How likely is the U.S. to do this, I wonder...
Quote from: EdnaMode on March 12, 2020, 09:36:23 AM
We're on spring break this week, but starting Monday will going completely online for the next month, perhaps longer. I'm worried about labs, about what my students will be missing as far as instruction and meeting course outcomes, and am curious how some of my colleagues (who still use old, yellowed, overhead sheets and never log in to the CMS) will cope. I can understand why it's being done, but at my institution, is has not been handled well. The notices have been a cross between rah rah rah we're all in this together, we can do it! and you MUST put everything online and bend over backward, accept all late work without penalty, and reinvent the wheel at the same time. I'm not sure our infrastructure can handle it. I'm in the process of setting up our CMS for video lectures and trying to plan for labs. In the message I'm composing to send out to my students I'm telling them that remote classes do not equal extended spring break. We'll see how it goes.
We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term. I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class. These are interesting times.
Quote from: Ruralguy on March 12, 2020, 08:19:26 AM
Caracal,
The reaction will get worse, it always does. However, though the number of US cases has been dramatically increasing, probably due in part to iincreased testing, the number of deaths has been only increasing by a couple of people per week, mostly part of that initial Washington outbreak.
If it's any consolation, Disney World is crazy busy.
The death rate also lags significantly behind infection in this. If you look at the recent articles coming out in medical journals, death is usually around 3 weeks after the beginning of the illness in that individual.
So that means 3 weeks for cases to spread before you start seeing people die. This is what has happened in Italy recently, for instance. If you wait until deaths are high, it means you've lost most of the fight with containing cases.
Quote from: the_geneticist on March 12, 2020, 01:31:17 PM
We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term. I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class. These are interesting times.
And if face-to-face classes resume in week 2, how many will show up in about week 10 saying "We have face to face classes????"
Our local K-12 district just announced closing for 3 weeks with an extended school year to make up the time in person later. We're waiting for my employer to have some early morning meetings before deciding what to do to ensure we have safe kids (bringing children to work is absolutely forbidden due to the work that we do; we don't even have Take Your Kid to Work days), safe workers (much has been canceled that were going to be large gatherings), and still get time-sensitive work done that cannot be done remotely.
Quote from: marshwiggle on March 13, 2020, 04:51:04 AM
Quote from: the_geneticist on March 12, 2020, 01:31:17 PM
We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term. I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class. These are interesting times.
And if face-to-face classes resume in week 2, how many will show up in about week 10 saying "We have face to face classes????"
I know! I'm anticipating a LOT of students saying that they don't feel safe returning to campus. My nightmare scenario is upper admin saying we have to offer the lab classes both in-person AND online. I can have my TAs do one or the other, but I can't have them do both at the same time.
The UK is not following the immediately shut down schools and large gatherings strategy because doing it too early makes it unsustainable in the longer run (at least absent an autocratic government like China has). The UK government scientists said that it takes a minimum 13-16 week school closure to have any significant effect (is it realistic that schools would remained closed for the remainder of this term and quite possibly the fall term too?), so the 2-4 week closure that most schools are doing now is nothing more than costly theater like much of the security theater at airports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRadMzCKnCU
UK government scientists start talking @ 31:50.
Quote from: Anon1787 on March 13, 2020, 11:12:50 PM
The UK is not following the immediately shut down schools and large gatherings strategy because doing it too early makes it unsustainable in the longer run (at least absent an autocratic government like China has). The UK government scientists said that it takes a minimum 13-16 week school closure to have any significant effect (is it realistic that schools would remained closed for the remainder of this term and quite possibly the fall term too?), so the 2-4 week closure that most schools are doing now is nothing more than costly theater like much of the security theater at airports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRadMzCKnCU
UK government scientists start talking @ 31:50.
The thing that following this has driven home to me is that epidemiologists and public health specialists are mostly just trying to make educated guesses, which isn't really that different from what most academics are doing. I'm not claiming they don't have incredibly valuable expertise, that they make stuff up, or that I know better than they do. I just mean that they are basically doing what most of us do in our disciplines, which is take the available evidence and try to draw conclusions about it. It isn't like you can run experiments where you take this new disease and try to figure out what public health measures would work best, so you try to use the evidence from other things and figure out how it might apply.
I also just don't think schools, at least not colleges are only going to close for two weeks. They've just announced that they are only definitely closed that long. But really, I think it is unlikely most will go back to in person classes this semester. You'd have to be in a situation where it felt like the risks were dramatically reduced and that seems, unfortunately, rather unlikely. Secondary schools are a bit different for all kinds of reasons.
Anon, I respect the UK health minister (he has a good background and I've been pretty impressed with his record so far). One thing that has to be mentioned is that they're trying very hard to ramp up the NHS capacity at the same time. So they're not doing nothing in response; they seem to be gearing up for something akin to a wartime siege mentality - asking people to be realistic about what they can do, and to understand that this won't be a war without casualties. Individual companies are responding as best they can - my partner's company has chosen to try to keep the workforce healthy by sending everyone remote (they are in London and felt that the tube commute was just too much of a risk so they are gearing up for a longterm plan, but it's possible given the nature of the business for them to do so). But in some ways it's terrifying - we have elderly relatives and hearing Boris say what he did so casually is a bit jarring. And I'm not sure the NHS will be up to the task (not that I'm sure the US health system will, either).
So I don't know - different countries are trying different things, and we'll hopefully see at the end which works first. I'm sorry to be here rather than there in some ways (we live in the US most of the time, and my job is here - he works remote all the time) but we have kids here and we don't want to leave them with all this going on, and they won't budge.
I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.
I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.
Quote from: backatit on March 14, 2020, 05:22:31 AM
I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.
I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.
I've seen lots of people saying things like this. This isn't meant to downplay the very real threat. That said, I saw an estimate from a virologist on Twitter that the US probably has 10k to 40k cases at this point. Thats about one for every 8000 people at the high end. Is it possible that you know three people who have come down with it even though you don't live near an area that has picked it up. Sure, of course. Maybe you're in an area where it has spread without detection. Definitely possible. That is almost certainly happening in some places. But, I'd suggest given the current numbers that it is more likely that everyone is more likely to tell people about being sick and and that you are more likely to notice and apply meaning when you hear that someone is mildly sick. People get pneumonia from non-flu viral infections all the time. It has happened to my, otherwise, quite healthy mother in law twice in the last year (which makes us worried about her now)
I had a whole rash of students yesterday on our final day of in person class writing in to say they felt ill and weren't coming. I had to remind myself that I had sent an email telling them to just let me know if they were either at greater risk or feeling at all unwell and that I myself had cancelled class this week because I had a minor cough from a cold. I guess we could find out in a week that a bunch of students got infected, but they probably just had minor illnesses they would have ignored before-or didn't feel like coming to class.
I just worry that if everyone thinks there is already an outbreak in their community, it will actually make it harder for people to deal with it if it actually happens. Of course, people with pneumonia should be getting tested, otherwise we aren't going to learn about these cases till vulnerable people start dying.
One of them has a roommate who HAS tested positive (I don't know how he got the test, but he is in med school, and I believe had traveled to a known area. The group of roommates are quarantined and they are testing the rest of them, and we are awaiting results). The other is a healthcare worker, and they are waiting for the test to come back. We do have one case in our area, but certainly there are other nasties floating around out there and not everything will be zebras.
And it's very likely that the person I know just has pneumonia. I don't think she has any other risk factors. So that may be 2 possible one unlikely (there are three roommates with known exposure - I was counting the healthcare worker as an "unknown"). I should have been clearer.
Quote from: backatit on March 14, 2020, 05:22:31 AM
Anon, I respect the UK health minister (he has a good background and I've been pretty impressed with his record so far). One thing that has to be mentioned is that they're trying very hard to ramp up the NHS capacity at the same time. So they're not doing nothing in response; they seem to be gearing up for something akin to a wartime siege mentality - asking people to be realistic about what they can do, and to understand that this won't be a war without casualties. Individual companies are responding as best they can - my partner's company has chosen to try to keep the workforce healthy by sending everyone remote (they are in London and felt that the tube commute was just too much of a risk so they are gearing up for a longterm plan, but it's possible given the nature of the business for them to do so). But in some ways it's terrifying - we have elderly relatives and hearing Boris say what he did so casually is a bit jarring. And I'm not sure the NHS will be up to the task (not that I'm sure the US health system will, either).
So I don't know - different countries are trying different things, and we'll hopefully see at the end which works first. I'm sorry to be here rather than there in some ways (we live in the US most of the time, and my job is here - he works remote all the time) but we have kids here and we don't want to leave them with all this going on, and they won't budge.
I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.
I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.
I agree, and did not mean to give the impression that the UK is doing nothing. The minister gave some estimates about what the most effective measures are likely to be such as self-isolation for 7 days when experiencing symptoms (though difficult to do). Stopping large gatherings and the like was much less effective, and it should not be done too early (which is the mistake that I believe is being made on our side of the pond) in order to maximize the likelihood that people will actually comply with it (which will go down the longer it lasts). Closing schools also requires that the children not socialize with each other, which, once again, is not likely to happen for a sustained period. So you aren't helping matters if grandparents become the emergency daycare option and children start socializing with each other.
Our spring break for next week has been extended to two weeks for students--they come back, to ONLINE classes, on March 30.
I'd imagine we'll be online at least until mid-April, which would be only a couple of weeks, but I can't imagine we'd go through all that work for any shorter time.
Only three of us in my department (combined with Reading) are QM-certified, online-trained, and actively teach online. Combined faculty, including adjuncts, is probably around 30-35 total. Of those, about 25 have no clue at all how to use Blackboard beyond just posting a syllabus (which they usually have someone else do for them), and about the same number are actively, violently anti-online teaching. Between that and the huge percentage of developmental classes in our combined departments, this ought to be a real mess.
Luckily I use Bb extensively in my two F2F classes, so I just have to add a few self-tests and discussion boards, and I'm ready for the rest of the semester. My Comp II students are really good about using Bb, too.
In my town, the governor has shut down all K-12 through the end of the month.
Quote from: backatit on March 14, 2020, 06:41:36 AM
One of them has a roommate who HAS tested positive (I don't know how he got the test, but he is in med school, and I believe had traveled to a known area. The group of roommates are quarantined and they are testing the rest of them, and we are awaiting results). The other is a healthcare worker, and they are waiting for the test to come back. We do have one case in our area, but certainly there are other nasties floating around out there and not everything will be zebras.
And it's very likely that the person I know just has pneumonia. I don't think she has any other risk factors. So that may be 2 possible one unlikely (there are three roommates with known exposure - I was counting the healthcare worker as an "unknown"). I should have been clearer.
Fair enough, a couple of those do seem pretty concerning. All of this does highlight how bad the testing shortage is. You're never going to catch every case, and even in China the estimates are that probably far more people got it than our in the official numbers, but we just have very little idea what the situation is anywhere.
Quote from: AmLitHist on March 14, 2020, 10:40:43 AM
Our spring break for next week has been extended to two weeks for students--they come back, to ONLINE classes, on March 30.
I'd imagine we'll be online at least until mid-April, which would be only a couple of weeks, but I can't imagine we'd go through all that work for any shorter time.
Only three of us in my department (combined with Reading) are QM-certified, online-trained, and actively teach online. Combined faculty, including adjuncts, is probably around 30-35 total. Of those, about 25 have no clue at all how to use Blackboard beyond just posting a syllabus (which they usually have someone else do for them), and about the same number are actively, violently anti-online teaching. Between that and the huge percentage of developmental classes in our combined departments, this ought to be a real mess.
Luckily I use Bb extensively in my two F2F classes, so I just have to add a few self-tests and discussion boards, and I'm ready for the rest of the semester. My Comp II students are really good about using Bb, too.
In my town, the governor has shut down all K-12 through the end of the month.
While the numbers are slightly different in my department, the trends are about the same.
I have 3 sections of Comp II. I thought that they were following along with BB, since that was how they submit assignments. Turns out, when I had to start really checking over the last week, only about half of them have logged in at all during that time, despite a steady stream of BB messages/emails from me. I don't want to freak out the conscientious ones, but the people totally off the grid need to wise up and realize that they will fail (more likely, under the circumstances, get an INC grade) if they don't get in touch one way or another, and pronto. I'm aware that there are probably some people with connectivity issues, but they have my work phone number, my cell phone number, and any number of other ways to get in touch.
I hope they aren't really sick.
It hasn't helped that many of my colleagues seem to have taken the guideline to ensure that most of the coursework is done very soon to mean "Give them the final exam next week!!!" Ugh. No wonder the students are panicking.
And the official word from the State Health folks is that ALL instruction (preK-college) must be online.
How long?
Well, our finals are online this week, then it's Spring Break, then all of Spring quarter has to be online too. And likely so for Summer as well.
My courses have now all been migrated. Minus this week's lectures, which I'll have to record over the next couple days.
I still have to go in tomorrow for a meeting, however. Lawl.
We're off for two weeks than will continue teaching online for the rest of the semester. Students are not happy with this.
What else do they expect to happen? Does a grandparent have to die to make this sink in?
Lucky for me I already teach 100% online but for the students at my Uni, this is a challenge. I keep reminding them that it isn't forever. Adapt and overcome.