Colleges in Dire Financial Straits

[spork]

[. . .]

but I want admincritters to at least shut up about the "demographic cliff" and stop using it as an excuse to cut-cut-cut.

As pointed out in the Delta Cost Project report that I reference upthread, in prior decades the money saved by eliminating full-time/tenured faculty positions was largely spent on more administrative staff. Budgets weren't reduced, the money was just spent on something else. I assume this practice has continued since the report was published.

Despite the above, I still regard "faculty governance" as one of the more certain routes to financial ruin for universities.

In failing organizations, no one wants to admit that they are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

[Wahoo Redux]

We've (my former) university has been running up against the cut-cut-cut with declining enrollment.  There was some additional hiring so that deans and such could "concentrate on generating money" kind of bull pucky, but part of the issue was simply that classrooms were not filling in some departments.  There was no reason for some teachers because students weren't taking their classes and/or there was redundancy in general ed: they only need X number to fulfill the need.  The admin then became aggressive about killing off their weakest children and force feeding their strongest----and this is where the pushback is occurring.

[treeoflife]

The department of Education report foreseeing a rise in enrolment seems to be based on disposable income, an interesting matrix but I think we all feel this makes very little sense in light of the demographic changes.

[selecter]

The term demographic cliff is pure rhetoric. Its just like the term liability. It signifies nothing.

You must be joking. Both are quite real, demonstrable, and consequential.

[dismalist]

The term demographic cliff is pure rhetoric. Its just like the term liability. It signifies nothing.

You must be joking. Both are quite real, demonstrable, and consequential.

I was responding to lightning, who mentioned a decline in enrollments from 2010. That was not a demographic cliff, but was described that way to emotionally justify some budget cuts to others. Pure rhetoric. What is coming after 2026 can justifiably be described as a demographic cliff. But that's a question of taste for words.

I also wrote

Just the facts ma'am, just the facts.

And, as I wrote upthread, fact is the college age cohort is going down the tubes after 2026.

Even if one knows the definitions of words, one doesn't necessarily know anything about the underlying phenomena.

[secundem_artem]

Final decisions are soon to be made for who and what lives and dies here at Artem U.  The atmosphere is a toxic soup of pain, anger, resignation, and finger pointing. Factions are being formed.  Rumblings about the nuclear option - votes of non-confidence - are heard in quiet corners.  Magical thinking abounds for possible solutions to what some refuse to believe is a crisis.

Twelve months ago, I would have said it was inconceivable that we would find ourselves in this situation.  But here we are. 

As the saying goes, at first you go broke slowly, and then all at once.

Right now, we are in a fight to avoid the "all at once" stage of the process.  I think the president and provost have a reasonable approach to do that.  Unfortunately, with remarkably little support from the faculty.

[apl68]

Final decisions are soon to be made for who and what lives and dies here at Artem U.  The atmosphere is a toxic soup of pain, anger, resignation, and finger pointing. Factions are being formed.  Rumblings about the nuclear option - votes of non-confidence - are heard in quiet corners.  Magical thinking abounds for possible solutions to what some refuse to believe is a crisis.

Twelve months ago, I would have said it was inconceivable that we would find ourselves in this situation.  But here we are. 

As the saying goes, at first you go broke slowly, and then all at once.

Right now, we are in a fight to avoid the "all at once" stage of the process.  I think the president and provost have a reasonable approach to do that.  Unfortunately, with remarkably little support from the faculty.

It deteriorated that fast, huh?  Is it mainly a matter of declining enrollment, or had administration taken some unsuccessful gambles like overspending on capital improvements or partnerships that didn't work out?

Sorry to hear that you are having to deal with this, artem.  If the president and provost have a plausible approach, then I hope that they can persuade the faculty to buy in, even though the plan likely to be unavoidably unpleasant to deal with.

[lilyb]

Final decisions are soon to be made for who and what lives and dies here at Artem U.  The atmosphere is a toxic soup of pain, anger, resignation, and finger pointing. Factions are being formed.  Rumblings about the nuclear option - votes of non-confidence - are heard in quiet corners.  Magical thinking abounds for possible solutions to what some refuse to believe is a crisis.

Twelve months ago, I would have said it was inconceivable that we would find ourselves in this situation.  But here we are. 

As the saying goes, at first you go broke slowly, and then all at once.

Right now, we are in a fight to avoid the "all at once" stage of the process.  I think the president and provost have a reasonable approach to do that.  Unfortunately, with remarkably little support from the faculty.

I am sorry to hear this and predict that my uni will approach this stage in the near future. It will be devastating when the faculty all turn on one another because we've been pretty united up until now.

[Hegemony]

Not quite the university-ending kind of dire straits, but a 93% vote of no confidence in the president from the faculty of Indiana University:

https://www.idsnews.com/article/2024/04/whitten-rebuked-iu-faculty-vote-no-confidence-in-whitten-shrivastav-docherty]https://www.idsnews.com/article/2024/04/whitten-rebuked-iu-faculty-vote-no-confidence-in-whitten-shrivastav-docherty]https://www.idsnews.com/article/2024/04/whitten-rebuked-iu-faculty-vote-no-confidence-in-whitten-shrivastav-docherty

[Wahoo Redux]

Final decisions are soon to be made for who and what lives and dies here at Artem U.  The atmosphere is a toxic soup of pain, anger, resignation, and finger pointing. Factions are being formed.  Rumblings about the nuclear option - votes of non-confidence - are heard in quiet corners.  Magical thinking abounds for possible solutions to what some refuse to believe is a crisis.

Twelve months ago, I would have said it was inconceivable that we would find ourselves in this situation.  But here we are. 

As the saying goes, at first you go broke slowly, and then all at once.

Right now, we are in a fight to avoid the "all at once" stage of the process.  I think the president and provost have a reasonable approach to do that.  Unfortunately, with remarkably little support from the faculty.

So sorry, man. It is so demoralizing and worrying.  Are you safe?  I will say that at least hitting an iceberg does not prolong the anxiety and uncertainty; at least you can plan.  A slowly weakening uni means you are constantly waiting for a shoe to drop.

I hope your job survives in some form or other.

[spork]

Keystone College is on the verge of shutting down:

https://www.thetimes-tribune.com/news/accreditor-requires-keystone-college-to-prepare-plan-for-potential-closure/article_a40f1e44-a414-5e48-858e-27a767ba0ad8.html

[apl68]

It's hard to see them recruiting many students for upcoming semesters when word is out that they're having to make teach-out plans.  This will likely prove the final blow.  Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, but then if plans like this aren't mandated in time students could end up left in the lurch.

Speaking of which, I wonder how many students have been left in the lurch in recent years when a school has suddenly shut down?  Having your college close out from under you has got to feel like a disaster for students.

[Wahoo Redux]

I thought I would just post this from Reddit.  It touches on several Fora themes.

Admin announces job losses using ChatGPT-generated email
That's all. Can't give details for obvious reasons but we are sunsetting a program and there are job losses entailed. Upper admin sent out an announcement to the campus. Details were wrong. The voice was odd and not characteristic of the sender. There was nothing specific about the program being ended.

I put a prompt into ChatGPT to "write a memo to the campus community announcing the closure of X program due to low enrollment" and got a reply that was as close to identical to the memo as one can get with Chat — the same points in same order and oodles of identical phrases. Why the heck am I killing myself to hold students accountable for misusing GPT? It is stunning and insulting.

[selecter]

New Jersey City College pretty much toast. Outstanding debt of 244M, operating deficit of 6M (down from 20 after 33% of academics slashed), and 50M in overdue deferred maintenance.

And they want a partner. Ummm. No.

https://www.nj.com/hudson/2024/04/financially-distressed-njcu-needs-a-partner-but-which-university-can-afford-to-take-on-the-school.html

[selecter]

Final decisions are soon to be made for who and what lives and dies here at Artem U.  The atmosphere is a toxic soup of pain, anger, resignation, and finger pointing. Factions are being formed.  Rumblings about the nuclear option - votes of non-confidence - are heard in quiet corners.  Magical thinking abounds for possible solutions to what some refuse to believe is a crisis.

I'm awfully sorry to hear it. Have alarms been sounded to wealthy board members or donors, local politicians, powerful partners, and anybody else with deep pockets?