Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 87530 times)

Puget

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1545 on: April 16, 2021, 03:47:07 PM »
Check out this cool customized risk calculation tool: https://www.microcovid.org/

Quote
There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

I'm not sure, does that nomination party at a White House garden count?

No, it doesn't-- they also had spent time indoors beforehand (many unmasked) and that's where most/all the spread is believed to have occurred.
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Caracal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1546 on: April 16, 2021, 05:29:45 PM »
Check out this cool customized risk calculation tool: https://www.microcovid.org/

Quote
There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

I'm not sure, does that nomination party at a White House garden count?

No, it doesn't-- they also had spent time indoors beforehand (many unmasked) and that's where most/all the spread is believed to have occurred.

Yeah, and that's true of all the examples I know that have been cited as examples of outdoor super spreader events. They all involved a signifiant indoor component. If you have a backyard bbq, but lots of people go and hang out inside without masks, that isn't actually an outdoor event...
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 05:55:07 PM by Caracal »

science.expat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1547 on: April 16, 2021, 10:41:04 PM »

Caracal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1548 on: April 17, 2021, 07:20:52 AM »
Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

jimbogumbo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1549 on: April 17, 2021, 10:34:41 AM »
Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

People are at this festival for quite a long time. I think it's entirely believable many were in fact infected there.

Caracal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1550 on: April 17, 2021, 10:57:22 AM »
Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

People are at this festival for quite a long time. I think it's entirely believable many were in fact infected there.

Sure, just saying that the presentation is a bit misleading. The bigger point is that this isn't just an outdoor event and there's no reason to think that most of this spread is taking place outdoors.

apl68

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1551 on: May 03, 2021, 07:10:07 AM »
On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.
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pgher

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1552 on: May 03, 2021, 08:31:48 AM »
On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.

We started that with Easter. We are using the pre-filled kits (a mini chalice with juice and a nearly-edible wafer). That way we're not passing anything around.

hmaria1609

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1553 on: May 03, 2021, 07:09:29 PM »
On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.
That's good news!

Langue_doc

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1554 on: May 04, 2021, 04:13:51 AM »
On the one hand, reaching herd immunity seems to be unlikely https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html, but on the other hand, New York is rushing to reopen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/nyregion/nyc-reopening.html

Business as usual, pandemic or not.

Caracal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1555 on: May 04, 2021, 06:54:46 AM »
On the one hand, reaching herd immunity seems to be unlikely https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html, but on the other hand, New York is rushing to reopen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/nyregion/nyc-reopening.html

Business as usual, pandemic or not.

Herd immunity isn't the right metric for deciding when and how much to reopen. The concept really applies to a situation in which an infectious disease is introduced. If the disease is already circulating widely you'll continue to have infections for quite a while even if you reached the level required for herd immunity. 

The article made the point that it isn't clear if herd immunity is likely, but that isn't actually a disaster. Israel has fully vaccinated about 55 percent of its population, fully reopened and cases have continued to decline. That doesn't actually tell us whether they have herd immunity, and they probably don't, but vaccination has dramatically cut transmission. That's what you want to see happen.

Of course, that doesn't mean its a good idea to rush to reopen everything. Cases have gone way down in NY, but they are still pretty high. The potential danger is that by rushing to reopen dangerous places too soon, you could end up slowing the decline in cases. in the long run that isn't going to be good for businesses either. I'd love to go to a bar, but I'm not going to do it, even though I'm vaccinated, until cases are a lot lower than they are now.

evil_physics_witchcraft

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1556 on: May 04, 2021, 08:03:57 AM »