The Fora: A Higher Education Community

Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 06, 2024, 07:41:10 PMThis was what they used to call the Pac 10, so that might make a difference.

U of A is being discussed in this thread. They were part of the expansion of the Pac8 away from the Pacific.

Quote from: Hibush on April 07, 2024, 07:10:27 AM

Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 06, 2024, 07:41:10 PMThis was what they used to call the Pac 10, so that might make a difference.

U of A is being discussed in this thread. They were part of the expansion of the Pac8 away from the Pacific.

Yeah, AZ was part of the PAC 12 even as they ran up the deficits. They are one of several members moving to what was the Big 12 (along with ASU, CO and Utah).

I wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

Quote from: treeoflife on April 09, 2024, 09:21:55 AMI wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

If each school that closes is down to the last thousand students, then 20-30 isn't that big a part of the total (0.1%). Indeed, that is remarkably low turnover for businesses in any industry. Now, if the University of Arizona were to close, it alone would take out the same capacity as all those small schools combined.

To check on the scale of changes in student numbers, NCES projects enrollment increasing by about 150,000 per year in the current decade.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 10 percent from 2010 to 2020 (21.0 million vs. 19.0 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 8 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2020 to 2030.

Total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 18 percent between 2010 and 2020 (3.2 million vs. 2.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 14 percent between 2020 and 2030 to 3.0 million.

Goddard College to close

Quote from: Wahoo Redux on April 09, 2024, 06:05:09 PMGoddard College to close

Another little Vermont school that can't survive in today's world that is so hostile to little institutions. 

Looks like this has been a long time coming.  The reports all speak of how they had declined from nearly two thousand students in the early 1970s to little more than 200 when they decided to close.  The market for their brand of "experimental" education has definitely gone away.

Another beautiful campus looking for a new role.

Quote from: Hibush on April 09, 2024, 05:17:30 PM

Quote from: treeoflife on April 09, 2024, 09:21:55 AMI wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

If each school that closes is down to the last thousand students, then 20-30 isn't that big a part of the total (0.1%). Indeed, that is remarkably low turnover for businesses in any industry. Now, if the University of Arizona were to close, it alone would take out the same capacity as all those small schools combined.

To check on the scale of changes in student numbers, NCES projects enrollment increasing by about 150,000 per year in the current decade.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 10 percent from 2010 to 2020 (21.0 million vs. 19.0 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 8 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2020 to 2030.

Total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 18 percent between 2010 and 2020 (3.2 million vs. 2.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 14 percent between 2020 and 2030 to 3.0 million.

Whoa!!!

You mean that all this yammering about the "demographic cliff" (an excuse for admincritters at my uni to cut budget even though enrollment has held steady at worst and increased significantly at best), already happened? I can't wait to show these numbers to the admincritters at my place who preface many of their budget discussions with the fallout from the impending "demographic cliff" which we never saw, and which looks like we won't be seeing, according to this article. (Well, admincritters don't want to talk to me anymore, so maybe I won't).

Quote from: Hibush on April 09, 2024, 05:17:30 PM

Quote from: treeoflife on April 09, 2024, 09:21:55 AMI wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

If each school that closes is down to the last thousand students, then 20-30 isn't that big a part of the total (0.1%). Indeed, that is remarkably low turnover for businesses in any industry. Now, if the University of Arizona were to close, it alone would take out the same capacity as all those small schools combined.

To check on the scale of changes in student numbers, NCES projects enrollment increasing by about 150,000 per year in the current decade.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 10 percent from 2010 to 2020 (21.0 million vs. 19.0 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 8 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2020 to 2030.

Total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 18 percent between 2010 and 2020 (3.2 million vs. 2.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 14 percent between 2020 and 2030 to 3.0 million.

2010 is too recent a baseline.

Quote from: spork on April 10, 2024, 07:52:18 AM

Quote from: Hibush on April 09, 2024, 05:17:30 PM

Quote from: treeoflife on April 09, 2024, 09:21:55 AMI wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

If each school that closes is down to the last thousand students, then 20-30 isn't that big a part of the total (0.1%). Indeed, that is remarkably low turnover for businesses in any industry. Now, if the University of Arizona were to close, it alone would take out the same capacity as all those small schools combined.

To check on the scale of changes in student numbers, NCES projects enrollment increasing by about 150,000 per year in the current decade.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 10 percent from 2010 to 2020 (21.0 million vs. 19.0 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 8 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2020 to 2030.

Total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 18 percent between 2010 and 2020 (3.2 million vs. 2.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 14 percent between 2020 and 2030 to 3.0 million.

2010 is too recent a baseline.

I'm not being snarky, but I'd like to see that information account for football. We had a candidate for Dean a few years ago (2020? My memory is hazy) who presented on the impending dire drop in enrollment. Ultimately, my university decided to go in a different direction, and that the best way to make ourselves immune from this enrollment catastrophe was to increase our football presence. And if it's true that schools in the SEC football conference are showing record enrollments, then I wonder how much of a factor something like that is.

Quote from: lightning on April 10, 2024, 07:34:27 AMWhoa!!!

You mean that all this yammering about the "demographic cliff" (an excuse for admincritters at my uni to cut budget even though enrollment has held steady at worst and increased significantly at best), already happened? I can't wait to show these numbers to the admincritters at my place who preface many of their budget discussions with the fallout from the impending "demographic cliff" which we never saw, and which looks like we won't be seeing, according to this article. (Well, admincritters don't want to talk to me anymore, so maybe I won't).

It's not done. We're more like lemmings about half way down.

Quote from: RatGuy on April 10, 2024, 08:20:01 AM[. . . ]

I'm not being snarky, but I'd like to see that information account for football.

[. . .]

There is a lot I can write about causal factors in enrollment trends, but I'll try to be brief.

• I remember a report from several years ago about total educational debt in the USA being roughly equal to the cost of excess institutional capacity. I.e., student loans paying for unneeded capital expenditures, salaries, etc. I'll try to find the report.
• In the meantime, here's a summary of findings from the Delta Cost Project in 2014.
• As Nathan Grawe has pointed out, the Northeast and Midwest are the regions most severely affected by a shrinking of the traditional college-aged demographic. If you're in a Sunbelt state with large cities and a booming population that includes working families with children, enrollment growth, or at least a substantial portion of it, is independent of SEC football ranking. Vermont, in contrast, is a sparsely populated rural state filled with old people.
• Since at least the start of the Covid pandemic, and possibly earlier, college-bound high school graduates have been more frequently choosing large-enrollment public flagships over smaller compass point campuses than in the past. For example, look at degree-seeking undergraduate enrollment at NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, and UNCH Charlotte compared to UNC Asheville. I assume the same is true for private institutions also, although I have not seen any data to support this.

Quote from: lightning on April 10, 2024, 07:34:27 AM

Quote from: Hibush on April 09, 2024, 05:17:30 PM

Quote from: treeoflife on April 09, 2024, 09:21:55 AMI wonder what will be the rate of closures, are we about to see a steady stream of 20-30 institutions per year or will this be a tidal wave in 2025-2026.

If each school that closes is down to the last thousand students, then 20-30 isn't that big a part of the total (0.1%). Indeed, that is remarkably low turnover for businesses in any industry. Now, if the University of Arizona were to close, it alone would take out the same capacity as all those small schools combined.

To check on the scale of changes in student numbers, NCES projects enrollment increasing by about 150,000 per year in the current decade.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 10 percent from 2010 to 2020 (21.0 million vs. 19.0 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 8 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2020 to 2030.

Total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions
▼ decreased 18 percent between 2010 and 2020 (3.2 million vs. 2.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 14 percent between 2020 and 2030 to 3.0 million.

Whoa!!!

You mean that all this yammering about the "demographic cliff" (an excuse for admincritters at my uni to cut budget even though enrollment has held steady at worst and increased significantly at best), already happened? I can't wait to show these numbers to the admincritters at my place who preface many of their budget discussions with the fallout from the impending "demographic cliff" which we never saw, and which looks like we won't be seeing, according to this article. (Well, admincritters don't want to talk to me anymore, so maybe I won't).

Yes, the forecast knocked me off my perch.

I skimmed an Appendix to the report. They regressed enrollments on a coupla' things including per capita income. They must expect a per capita income so high that everybody can afford to go to college!

Forecasting is hard, especially the future.

What is known is that the number of 18 year olds will start to decline after 2026, at perhaps 3% per year, and 6% per year later. Look at the first chart in Cliff, a surprisingly informative article.

So, ceteris paribus, predicting the same for enrollments is not idiotic.

Thus, the time path of enrollments would be pretty gradual, but then a dip. Perhaps not as bad as bankruptcy:

"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

I was talking earlier this week to an old acquaintance at Alma Mater who is pretty well-placed, and learned that they've been working in recent years on vocational post-undergrad programs to help compensate for the decline in traditional-age undergrad demand.  Apparently they've had some success so far.  Overall enrollment has been holding steady, and the school has been able to retire about a quarter of its outstanding debt from some years back when they (like every other school in the country) engaged in a building spree on campus.

Quote from: jimbogumbo on April 10, 2024, 08:36:10 AM

Quote from: lightning on April 10, 2024, 07:34:27 AMWhoa!!!

You mean that all this yammering about the "demographic cliff" (an excuse for admincritters at my uni to cut budget even though enrollment has held steady at worst and increased significantly at best), already happened? I can't wait to show these numbers to the admincritters at my place who preface many of their budget discussions with the fallout from the impending "demographic cliff" which we never saw, and which looks like we won't be seeing, according to this article. (Well, admincritters don't want to talk to me anymore, so maybe I won't).

It's not done. We're more like lemmings about half way down.

I get that we're only halfway through it, but ten years ago (2014), admincritters at my uni were using the impending "demographic cliff" to cut-cut-cut as a preparation for significant lower enrollments. Since 2014, our enrollment has held steady or increased significantly. According to NCES, we are halfway through the "demographic cliff." Yet, the administrators at my place keep talking about the "demographic cliff" as if it hasn't started yet, and that we have to cut now to be prepared for the lower enrollments later. The lower enrollments never happened. By the same logic in 2014, where admincritters said they had to cut-cut-cut to get ready for projected lower enrollments (of which the lower student enrollments never happened at my place), it's time to restore-restore-restore to get ready for impending enrollment growth. Of course, it's silly for me to say that, but I want admincritters to at least shut up about the "demographic cliff" and stop using it as an excuse to cut-cut-cut.

The term demographic cliff is pure rhetoric. Its just like the term liability. It signifies nothing.

Just the facts ma'am, just the facts.