Vaccination nation

[Sun_Worshiper]

What I said on the Coronavirus thread: For a healthy young person, the chance of getting killed by Corona is about one in 1000. A person facing those odds who does not get vaccinated, is merely less risk averse than most people on this board, including me. But such people are not necessarily stupid, evil, politically misguided, anti-science, or irrational. Some people like going to Las Vegas, others don't. People differ.

First, many people are basing their decisions about the vaccine on misinformation and a misunderstanding of risk, as opposed to the probability based approach that you suggest. Second, as you surely know, a healthy young person is more likely to get covid and be asymptomatic, but also pass it on to others who are vulnerable. This dynamic leads to unnecessary deaths and hospitalizations, which are costly in economic and noneconomic terms for the country, and make it very difficult for society to get back to normal. So not all healthy young people who get the vaccine are doing so because they are evil or anti-science, but they are being selfish and destructive for no good reason.

[dismalist]

What I said on the Coronavirus thread: For a healthy young person, the chance of getting killed by Corona is about one in 1000. A person facing those odds who does not get vaccinated, is merely less risk averse than most people on this board, including me. But such people are not necessarily stupid, evil, politically misguided, anti-science, or irrational. Some people like going to Las Vegas, others don't. People differ.

First, many people are basing their decisions about the vaccine on misinformation and a misunderstanding of risk, as opposed to the probability based approach that you suggest. Second, as you surely know, a healthy young person is more likely to get covid and be asymptomatic, but also pass it on to others who are vulnerable. This dynamic leads to unnecessary deaths and hospitalizations, which are costly in economic and noneconomic terms for the country, and make it very difficult for society to get back to normal. So not all healthy young people who get the vaccine are doing so because they are evil or anti-science, but they are being selfish and destructive for no good reason.

You mean "don't get the vaccine", don't you? All that would be completely true in the absence of vaccines. But now they are plentifully available. This means anyone who doesn't like the risk can get vaccinated at zero monetary cost. The hospitalization cost for the others will be low from now on, for the vulnerable have been largely vaccinated.

And, most people are selfish most of the time. :-)

[onthefringe]

My sense is that (many) people seem to simultaneously overestimate the risks of  dying of COVID and underestimate the other risks associated with even "mild" cases of COVID. As a fully vaccinated person, I have essentially no fear of dying of COVID. I am concerned about one or more of the following:

My mother in law has stage 4 cancer, and had a suboptimal response to her vaccination. My risk tolerance for giving her COVID is extremely low. So even thoughI understand that if I get COVID it's likely to be a mild case and be less transmissable, I'm still masking in indoor spaces with people who are potentially unvaccinated.

I LOVE food. And loss of sense of smell is a common "mild" COVID symptom. I saw how much my grandfather's quality of life went down when he lost his sense of smell (not COVID  related) and am simply not willing to risk that given the mild inconvenience of masking in indoor spaces with people who are potentially unvaccinated.

I have dear friends whose kids are below the age for vaccination. While the kids themselves are at low risk of death, they could still get mild cases that could be passed on to people with suboptimal vaccine responses, or have a "mild" long term sequelae that affect their quality of life. I am am simply not willing to risk that given the mild inconvenience of masking in indoor spaces with people who are potentially unvaccinated.

I think that people who are SIMULTANEOUSLY unwilling to vaccinate themselves AND unwilling to continue masking are, in fact some combination of

stupid, evil, politically misguided, anti-science, or irrational.

[downer]

Over 34 million people in the US have had COVID-19. I'd be interested to know the vaccination rate among that group. I suspect it is less than the general population.

If you have (some) immunity from having had COVID, and you don't want to get the vaccine, is that irresponsible? I guess we can argue that it is still better to get the vaccine even if you have had COVID, but is it fair to lump them with the group who never had COVID and won't get the vaccine?

[onthefringe]

If you have (some) immunity from having had COVID, and you don't want to get the vaccine, is that irresponsible? I guess we can argue that it is still better to get the vaccine even if you have had COVID, but is it fair to lump them with the group who never had COVID and won't get the vaccine?

Yup, depending on their willingness to mask. Increasing evidence (discussed here among other places) suggests that vaccination provides significantly better immunity to newly emerging variants. I stand by my belief that people need to be willing either to get vaccinated or to mask indoors to avoid me labeling them as selfish.

[dismalist]

My sense is that (many) people seem to simultaneously overestimate the risks of  dying of COVID...

That would indeed be typical of human attitudes toward unfamiliar low risks. If it applied here, I think a lot more people would be vaccinated. It might not apply here because healthy young  people have learned by observation over the last year or so that the risk is low.

... underestimate the other risks associated with even "mild" cases of COVID

If that risk were high, yes. But it's not, for healthy young people.

For the vulnerable, something like their behavior toward flu might be a model.

[onthefringe]

My sense is that (many) people seem to simultaneously overestimate the risks of  dying of COVID...

That would indeed be typical of human attitudes toward unfamiliar low risks. If it applied here, I think a lot more people would be vaccinated. It might not apply here because healthy young  people have learned by observation over the last year or so that the risk is low.

... underestimate the other risks associated with even "mild" cases of COVID

If that risk were high, yes. But it's not, for healthy young people.

For the vulnerable, something like their behavior toward flu might be a model.

In a study of medical professionals with mild COVID (median age in early 40s) over one in 10 reported at least one moderate to severe symptom that persisted over at least 8 months.

And, lack of risk to self does not reduce my perception that unvaccinated people who are not willing to mask present a risk to others, both through the risk of passing COVID on to someone who is vulnerable through no fault of their own, and on a societal level by serving as a breeding ground for future variants that will be more infectious, able to infect vaccinated people, and more dangerous. Or all three.

[dismalist]

My sense is that (many) people seem to simultaneously overestimate the risks of  dying of COVID...

That would indeed be typical of human attitudes toward unfamiliar low risks. If it applied here, I think a lot more people would be vaccinated. It might not apply here because healthy young  people have learned by observation over the last year or so that the risk is low.

... underestimate the other risks associated with even "mild" cases of COVID

If that risk were high, yes. But it's not, for healthy young people.

For the vulnerable, something like their behavior toward flu might be a model.

In a study of medical professionals with mild COVID (median age in early 40s) over one in 10 reported at least one moderate to severe symptom that persisted over at least 8 months.

And, lack of risk to self does not reduce my perception that unvaccinated people who are not willing to mask present a risk to others, both through the risk of passing COVID on to someone who is vulnerable through no fault of their own, and on a societal level by serving as a breeding ground for future variants that will be more infectious, able to infect vaccinated people, and more dangerous. Or all three.

But it's the unvaccinated who suffer the problems of mild cases! What costs society is hospitalization and such, not an eight month pain of an unvaccinated individual.

The breeding ground, too, will hurt the unvaccinated, not the vaccinated.

As for vulnerable populations, something can be done short of requiring everyone to be vaccinated. I doubt it could be enforced, by the way.

[onthefringe]

My sense is that (many) people seem to simultaneously overestimate the risks of  dying of COVID...

That would indeed be typical of human attitudes toward unfamiliar low risks. If it applied here, I think a lot more people would be vaccinated. It might not apply here because healthy young  people have learned by observation over the last year or so that the risk is low.

... underestimate the other risks associated with even "mild" cases of COVID

If that risk were high, yes. But it's not, for healthy young people.

For the vulnerable, something like their behavior toward flu might be a model.

In a study of medical professionals with mild COVID (median age in early 40s) over one in 10 reported at least one moderate to severe symptom that persisted over at least 8 months.

And, lack of risk to self does not reduce my perception that unvaccinated people who are not willing to mask present a risk to others, both through the risk of passing COVID on to someone who is vulnerable through no fault of their own, and on a societal level by serving as a breeding ground for future variants that will be more infectious, able to infect vaccinated people, and more dangerous. Or all three.

But it's the unvaccinated who suffer the problems of mild cases! What costs society is hospitalization and such, not an eight month pain of an unvaccinated individual.

The breeding ground, too, will hurt the unvaccinated, not the vaccinated.

As for vulnerable populations, something can be done short of requiring everyone to be vaccinated. I doubt it could be enforced, by the way.

Vaccinated people get mild cases and have sequelae. The vaccines are >90% effective against SEVERE cases, but much less effective against mild cases, especially for more transmissible variants like delta. Very few vaccinated people end up in the hospital, but mild cases (which are basically defined as cases that don't lead to hospitalization) still can cause symptoms like fatigue, anosmia, vascular issues etc. in vaccinated people.

The breeding ground issue WILL affect vaccinated people once the unvaccinated pool throws off a variant that evades immunity from the current vaccines.

I agree that anything that would prevent this is likely unenforceable.I am simply saying that I personally think poorly of people who BOTH refuse to get vaccinated AND refuse to mask in public, and that I am in support of public health mandates (requiring masking of everyone or allowing refusal of service to the unmasked vaccinated) that would reduce the transmission if the variants we have or the production of new, scarier variants.

[dismalist]

The breeding ground issue WILL affect vaccinated people once the unvaccinated pool throws off a variant that evades immunity from the current vaccines.

And we know nothing, just speculation.  And that is where we humans go for equal-probability-of-the-unknown without further evidence. We're built that way.

Given what is known about other virus mutations, I'd say the probability of a Black Swan is very low. Opinions can differ. And the reactions can differ, too. Which was my original point.

[downer]

If you have (some) immunity from having had COVID, and you don't want to get the vaccine, is that irresponsible? I guess we can argue that it is still better to get the vaccine even if you have had COVID, but is it fair to lump them with the group who never had COVID and won't get the vaccine?

Yup, depending on their willingness to mask. Increasing evidence (discussed here among other places) suggests that vaccination provides significantly better immunity to newly emerging variants. I stand by my belief that people need to be willing either to get vaccinated or to mask indoors to avoid me labeling them as selfish.

I don't place much stock in "increasing evidence" when the evidence seems also point in other directions.
https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/07/covid_survivors_resistance/index.html

Given that vaccinated can also get COVID no one is absolutely safe. I'm more incline to place those who have had COVID already in the same category as those who are vaccinated.

But I'm also pretty much in favor of vaccine mandates from employers and schools. My main worry is pragmatic. If mandates generate resentment and resistance, then there may be greater problems in the future, when a more serious viral pandemic hits us.

[Sun_Worshiper]

What I said on the Coronavirus thread: For a healthy young person, the chance of getting killed by Corona is about one in 1000. A person facing those odds who does not get vaccinated, is merely less risk averse than most people on this board, including me. But such people are not necessarily stupid, evil, politically misguided, anti-science, or irrational. Some people like going to Las Vegas, others don't. People differ.

First, many people are basing their decisions about the vaccine on misinformation and a misunderstanding of risk, as opposed to the probability based approach that you suggest. Second, as you surely know, a healthy young person is more likely to get covid and be asymptomatic, but also pass it on to others who are vulnerable. This dynamic leads to unnecessary deaths and hospitalizations, which are costly in economic and noneconomic terms for the country, and make it very difficult for society to get back to normal. So not all healthy young people who get the vaccine are doing so because they are evil or anti-science, but they are being selfish and destructive for no good reason.

You mean "don't get the vaccine", don't you? All that would be completely true in the absence of vaccines. But now they are plentifully available. This means anyone who doesn't like the risk can get vaccinated at zero monetary cost. The hospitalization cost for the others will be low from now on, for the vulnerable have been largely vaccinated.

And, most people are selfish most of the time. :-)

There are people who cannot get vaccinated, of course, for example because they have some health condition. There is also the issue of variants.

And you can write off the issue of selfishness as being just a part of the human condition, but lots of us who are young and in good shape/health have gotten vaccinated in order to protect others. People who refuse to do their part are hurting the rest of the country by ensuring that the economy/society cannot return to normal.

[dismalist]

The situation is symmetric. If one forces vaccines on people, one is taking something away from them. If one gives freedom of choice, one is taking something away from others.

Because we live in a regime of  non-vaccination allowed, I would be for bribing people people to get vaccinated.

[onthefringe]

The situation is symmetric. If one forces vaccines on people, one is taking something away from them. If one gives freedom of choice, one is taking something away from others.

Because we live in a regime of  non-vaccination allowed, I would be for bribing people people to get vaccinated.

Alternate plan: freedom of choice but choices have consequences (eg, needing to mask, not being able to enter some businesses, not being able to take classes in some formats at some schools)

+bribing is fine. I have no problems with both carrots and sticks.

[dismalist]

The situation is symmetric. If one forces vaccines on people, one is taking something away from them. If one gives freedom of choice, one is taking something away from others.

Because we live in a regime of  non-vaccination allowed, I would be for bribing people people to get vaccinated.

Alternate plan: freedom of choice but choices have consequences (eg, needing to mask, not being able to enter some businesses, not being able to take classes in some formats at some schools)

+bribing is fine. I have no problems with both carrots and sticks.

I agree with both. The bribes are consequences of the right not to vaccinate. The sticks suggested here are consequences of freedom of association. :-)