Election 2021! (Canada votes again...)

[marshwiggle]

Now that the election is over


I'd just like to point out what we don't have here.

• We don't have claims the election was "stolen" by any combination of russian bots, targeted advertising, voter suppression, or mail-in ballots.(And we had a record number of mail-in ballots. No biggie.)
• We don't have people rioting in Ottawa because they didn't like the outcome.

This is because we do have

• The logistics of federal elections handled by a non-partisan national organization, Elections Canada, so things are consistent across the country.
• Several parties that all get seats, which reminds people that there aren't just two perspectives on any given issue. (i.e. It's NOT a battle between Good and Evil; it's hearing from a lot of voters with differing concerns.)

And Her Majesty shouldn't have to step in to break up the fights. (That would probably stress out the Corgis if it came to that.)

[mamselle]

Oh, right, the Corgis, I forgot about them...

She'd have to hold their leashes in one hand, and the scimitar and Doomsday book both in the other.

That could make waving difficult.

She does have to balance a lot.

(Meant kindly...)

M.

[Parasaurolophus]

Things are basically unchanged, but I think it's more or less a win for the Liberals. The NDP won't be able to afford triggering another election soon, and nobody else is going to want to do so, politically, for fear of being punished for it. That buys them at least 18 months, maybe longer, and insulates them somewhat from having to run a campaign when unemployment is high(er), assuming it will be thanks to the delta variant.

As for the Tories... if they want to have a chance in 2023+, they'll have to stick with O'Toole. Whether they realize that is another matter. I imagine he's going to have a hard time keeping the Reformists at bay, given that this is on par with Scheer's historic failure. It's also worth noting that the PPC definitely bled their votes in Ontario. Hopefully they won't wake up and realize that's what they did and return to the Conservative fold.

Singh's campaign wasn't great, but the results are fine. He can hope to do better next time, although the depleted war chest will be a big problem.

Anamie Paul is toast. But that means the Greens are pretty much forfeiting the next election, too.

[marshwiggle]

Things are basically unchanged, but I think it's more or less a win for the Liberals. The NDP won't be able to afford triggering another election soon, and nobody else is going to want to do so, politically, for fear of being punished for it. That buys them at least 18 months, maybe longer, and insulates them somewhat from having to run a campaign when unemployment is high(er), assuming it will be thanks to the delta variant.

It does provide a kind of cautionary tale for Trudeau about calling another early election, even if covid is over in 18 months. Just because he doesn't like the minority situation doesn't mean voters have a problem with it.

[Hibush]

Things are basically unchanged, but I think it's more or less a win for the Liberals. The NDP won't be able to afford triggering another election soon, and nobody else is going to want to do so, politically, for fear of being punished for it. That buys them at least 18 months, maybe longer, and insulates them somewhat from having to run a campaign when unemployment is high(er), assuming it will be thanks to the delta variant.

As for the Tories... if they want to have a chance in 2023+, they'll have to stick with O'Toole. Whether they realize that is another matter. I imagine he's going to have a hard time keeping the Reformists at bay, given that this is on par with Scheer's historic failure. It's also worth noting that the PPC definitely bled their votes in Ontario. Hopefully they won't wake up and realize that's what they did and return to the Conservative fold.

Singh's campaign wasn't great, but the results are fine. He can hope to do better next time, although the depleted war chest will be a big problem.

Anamie Paul is toast. But that means the Greens are pretty much forfeiting the next election, too.

Is there wider Tory leadership that is willing to let PP have the crazies and go after the moderate Liberal voters instead?

North Americans who are active in the Green party tend not to be the best organizers. Is that going to be a challenge for Canadian Greens going forward? Or do they have a good organizer who can also draw the support of the party members (or attract the politically sympathetic who want to see stuff get done)?

[marshwiggle]

Is there wider Tory leadership that is willing to let PP have the crazies and go after the moderate Liberal voters instead?

I think Kron had it about right.

The people's party of Canada (PPC) launched a few years ago and is filling the further right side of things, but the only have about 6% of the vote, and even that seems to be driven by anti-vax, anti shutdown items as they were only polling around 2% before. 

I think post-pandemic they'll probably subside somewhat.

North Americans who are active in the Green party tend not to be the best organizers. Is that going to be a challenge for Canadian Greens going forward? Or do they have a good organizer who can also draw the support of the party members (or attract the politically sympathetic who want to see stuff get done)?

The Greens need to not just be another shrill protest voice, like the NDP often is.  To be fair, their problems in this election stemmed from the party executive shooting themselves in the foot. If they can chill out and get behind a reasonable leader they should be able to recover. (But since Anamie Paul has again failed to win her own seat, and even lost ground, she's not wise to continue.)

[Kron3007]

Things are basically unchanged, but I think it's more or less a win for the Liberals. The NDP won't be able to afford triggering another election soon, and nobody else is going to want to do so, politically, for fear of being punished for it. That buys them at least 18 months, maybe longer, and insulates them somewhat from having to run a campaign when unemployment is high(er), assuming it will be thanks to the delta variant.

As for the Tories... if they want to have a chance in 2023+, they'll have to stick with O'Toole. Whether they realize that is another matter. I imagine he's going to have a hard time keeping the Reformists at bay, given that this is on par with Scheer's historic failure. It's also worth noting that the PPC definitely bled their votes in Ontario. Hopefully they won't wake up and realize that's what they did and return to the Conservative fold.

Singh's campaign wasn't great, but the results are fine. He can hope to do better next time, although the depleted war chest will be a big problem.

Anamie Paul is toast. But that means the Greens are pretty much forfeiting the next election, too.

I dont see it as a liberal win at all.  More like everyone lost, including us.  They did not get their majority, which is what they were after.  Now they have to get someone on board with any bill they want to pass.  Sure, no one wants another election (or this one) and are inclined to go along, but they still need to appease someone to move their agenda forward.  They will be swimming up river all the time. 
 
Conservatives are no better off with Erin than they were before.  He might be their best bet, but he just seems so fake. 

Pretty much status quo for NDP.  It will be very hard for them to ever break free without electoral reform.  This should be a major focus for them IMO, but the liberals are unlikely to move on it in any real way since they are the real winners of the current system. 

I dont see the PPC joining the conservatives any time soon.  As long as the cons have a more PC type of leader (which they need to win), I only see the PPC growing stronger (which is good, to a degree).

As for the greens, this was really poor timing and they need to sort themselves out.

[secundem_artem]

What ever happened to the Social Credit Party?  If memory serves, once upon a time, they were kind of a big deal in BC.  Do they even exist any more?  Or did they get subsumed into another party?

[Parasaurolophus]

What ever happened to the Social Credit Party?  If memory serves, once upon a time, they were kind of a big deal in BC.  Do they even exist any more?  Or did they get subsumed into another party?

It fragmented along regional lines and was taken over by social conservatives, and died out in 1984 or so, although it didn't officially cease to exist until the early '90s.

[kaysixteen]

Hmmmm... I did not see an answer to my question... could two or more of the sub-plurality parties whose combined total would be a majority of seats establish a coalition without the plurality party?

[quasihumanist]

Hmmmm... I did not see an answer to my question... could two or more of the sub-plurality parties whose combined total would be a majority of seats establish a coalition without the plurality party?

Yes.

[Parasaurolophus]

They could, but they're all dead-set against it. We don't have a tradition of doing so.

[kaysixteen]

Ok, but failing to do that means all those parties continue to be on the outside of government looking in.... why would that be preferable to governing in coalition?

[marshwiggle]

I'm pretty sure it has happened on occasion; I just can't recall exactly when. Minority governments happen only about 1/3 of the time, IIRC, and that situation happens only a small proportion of those, so they're quite uncommon.

[Parasaurolophus]

Ok, but failing to do that means all those parties continue to be on the outside of government looking in.... why would that be preferable to governing in coalition?

It's not preferable for the population or those parties. But it's preferable for the Liberals and Conservatives, because even without a coalition, they're bound to get 18 months or so to govern, then another chance at a majority. Their party coffers are sufficiently full that they can afford to run a couple of campaigns in short succession; the other parties, not so much.

I'm pretty sure it has happened on occasion; I just can't recall exactly when. Minority governments happen only about 1/3 of the time, IIRC, and that situation happens only a small proportion of those, so they're quite uncommon.

There were several prior to Confederation, including the Great Coalition of 1864. But at the federal level, I don't think there's been one since then (there have been plenty of provincial coalition governments, especially in Manitoba). When the Liberals and NDP tried to form one in 2008, the Conservatives argued it was illegal (which it of course isn't).