Fall 2021 Deposits and Anticipated Enrollments

[TreadingLife]

Have your admissions departments released information on your incoming class sizes for this fall? We are running under our normal fall admits, but our admissions department anticipated a lower incoming fall class. What are you seeing at your institutions, particularly LACs?  I know applications are up at the big named, big endowment schools. I wonder how that might be affecting us since we are much lower on the quality food chain.

[spork]

I have no hard numbers, but senior administrators says that deposits are tracking closely with prior years and that fall enrollment projections look good.

I'll believe it when I see it. Previously we've hit the target only by increasing the tuition discount rate. The wealthier students go elsewhere.

[secundem_artem]

Artem U is up by ~ 150 deposits over this time 2020 (which was a poor year) and up modestly from a more typical year in 2019.  I don't know if it's related to discount rate - suspect it's not.

[FishProf]

Applications down 23%, Acceptances down 17%, deposits UP 13%.

It's weird.

[TreadingLife]

I have no hard numbers, but senior administrators says that deposits are tracking closely with prior years and that fall enrollment projections look good.

I'll believe it when I see it. Previously we've hit the target only by increasing the tuition discount rate. The wealthier students go elsewhere.

I worry that a lot of our normal applicant pool is applying to better named schools because they think their odds of getting in are higher this year (which may be true). I also wonder if some of this is due to somewhat better schools trying to make up for lower class sizes last year by admitting more students this year. Cumulatively, this is really hitting our normal number of deposits. Hopefully they start coming in once students realize they aren't coming off any waitlists.

[TreadingLife]

I have no hard numbers, but senior administrators says that deposits are tracking closely with prior years and that fall enrollment projections look good.

I'll believe it when I see it. Previously we've hit the target only by increasing the tuition discount rate. The wealthier students go elsewhere.

Spork, I think you and I are at similar places, and I too, only believe it when I see it. I'm not sure my institution has the appetite or ability to increase our discount rate much more. I also wonder if we tried to hold the line on the discount rate, and the result was a lower incoming class, but potentially a smaller hit to net tuition revenue despite the lower headcount. Either way, it was depressing news.

[Ruralguy]

We are running historically low, but above the last two years. We've kept "melt" down over the last few years and also are able to snag extras over the summer, so the deposit numbers pretty much are the numbers, even if the actual people switch around a bit.  So, though nobody's going to be talking about raises and extras, there may be less talk of job loss and not replacing retiring professors (or retiring anybody else).  This and some positive giving numbers may mean less talk of going under any time soon (it wasn't going to be less than 5 years, but some are worried it may be less than 10). Though even the somewhat better numbers are likely not sustainable for the long term given current budget assumptions (staffing, etc..).

[spork]

I will make the disclaimer that I work at a small private university.

Pre-pandemic: increase in the number of colleges that high school seniors were applying to (draw rates collapsed after the 2008 recession). Probably also an increase high school seniors putting down deposits at multiple colleges.

Speculation about this year's admission cycle: a pandemic-induced desire to stick with the familiar/stay close to home translated into a reduction in the number of college applications high school seniors sent out, fewer accepted applicants depositing at multiple institutions, and fewer transfers between four-year institutions.

My forecast: even though the projection of a healthy-sized incoming Fall 2021 class might turn out to be accurate, our enrollment takes a hit in 2022-23. We have nearby competitors who can charge a $3K to $5K premium and still get some of our best accepted applicants because their brands are stronger. I'm thinking of one university in particular that supposedly has suffered a significant enrollment decline. It can reach into its deeper pockets, charge only a $1K-$2K premium, and probably vacuum up most of the incoming students who would otherwise have been in our honors program in 2022-23. And the students we do get are poorer than pre-pandemic so our discount rate remains too high.

[Ruralguy]

My school is in a similar situation. Though we nominally compete with about half a dozen similar colleges in the state or nearby in other states, those schools tend not to poach out accepted students. That honor goes to a very large state school that focuses on STEM.

[spork]

Latest communication about fall enrollment contained a specific number of deposits. We are on track to hit the target. I think we will have an acceptable number for incoming first-time, full-time + transfer students this year, everyone will say "Whew! Good job, crisis averted!" and pat themselves on the back. Then there will be a big drop in Fall 2022.

[Wahoo Redux]

Our pandemic year was strangely on track, but our spring numbers are alarmingly low, almost 24% down.  We usually have a wave of enrollments over the summer but the admin is offering retirement buyouts. 

[Vkw10]

Deposits ticked up sharply this month, so we're now expecting fall enrollment about the same as Fall 2019. Hooray!