Should the Justice Department indict Trump?

[Ruralguy]

It will probably be easier to get him on the documents or the Georgia thing.

I do believe he's totally guilty of...well, all of it. But as they say on all of the law tv shows, there's a difference between knowing something in your heart and mind and being able to prove it within the confines of the law. There's a pretty good case for crossing the line of legality in going from the bogus losing law suits (mostly legal, but somewhat questionable) to purposely promoting "alternate" (fake?) electors or worse (probably not legal in the way they were doing it). It will be a lot harder actually linking all of this to the actual riot/insurrection at the Capitol. Though, there may very well be someone who testified to saying "Lets stir them  up at the Capitol and delay this all or even get Congress to totally reverse the vote"   and then have Trump saying (by witness account or tape) "Yup, lets totally do that!"  To me its seems close, but no cigar. Still, I could be wrong.

Will it mater? Democrats have long ago dismissed Trump, and republicans who were going to dismiss him on principle have already done so. What's left are Republicans (or right leaning independents) who would only dump him because he's a loser, not because he did anything wrong. So, it remains to be seen how Republicans will really process a trial and especially a conviction on any of this. I suppose it could help rally Dems in the way COVID did several years ago, or abortion rights did last year. It doesn't change Dem minds, but it can change Dem level of engagment, including, say, donations to down ballot races, which may mean , say, having Congresscritter Frisch instead of Congrescritter Bobert.

[lightning]

Being a "winner" or a "loser" is the key to the MAGA, QAnon, Proud Boys, etc. base. Trump makes them all feel like "winners." This is why they still support him.

Putting Trump behind bars now rather than sooner, won't get rid of the problem that got him elected in the first place and that is Trump is their social identifier (both individual and group)--he gives them a sense of belonging to a larger social group (a nation within a nation), he is agency, he validates who they are and makes it OK to express in public what otherwise they have to keep to themselves, but most of all, he makes them feel like "winners."

Not aggressively & not quickly pursuing indictments and convictions against Trump only amplifies and continues to amplify all the reasons that Trump became their Messiah in the first place. Every delay is a "win" for MAGA.

When Trump loses, QAnon, MAGA, armed right-wing white supremacists, etc. will feel like "losers" because of the way they have hitched their own sense of identity & agency to Trump and the Trump cult. So, Trump needs to lose over-and-over again-and-again in a public and humiliating fashion.

That's the only way out. Or should I say, it was the only way out. Because all the courts and prosecutors have dragged their feet, Trump has remained their social identifier, their agency, their sense of belonging, and their "winning." And, right before an election, this is how a presidential candidate's base needs to feel about a candidate, in order for the candidate to get elected. This is why DeSantis, who would otherwise be the perfect Republican candidate, can't get any traction.

[Langue_doc]

Georgia indicted him and his cronies on racketeering charges.

Trump Indicted in Georgia
Ex-President Accused of Leading Push to Overturn 2020 Vote
Donald Trump and 18 others were indicted by an Atlanta grand jury in a sweeping racketeering case. It is the fourth major criminal case facing Mr. Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/15/us/trump-indictment-georgia-election

The annotated indictment here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/15/us/politics/trump-georgia-indictment-annotated.html

The 41 indictments listed by category:

A grand jury in Fulton County, Ga., on Monday unveiled the fourth criminal indictment of former President Donald J. Trump. Like a federal indictment earlier this month, this one concerns Mr. Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. But it differs in that it charges 18 other defendants who are alleged to have taken part in the scheme.

The 41 Counts in the Georgia Indictment
22 counts
Related to forgery or false documents and statements
8 counts
Related to soliciting or impersonating public officers
3 counts
Related to influencing witnesses
3 counts
Related to election fraud or defrauding the state
3 counts
Related to computer tampering
1 count
Related to racketeering
1 count
Related to perjury

[Ruralguy]

This one, to me, always seemed like the best case against him just on the publicly available evidence, let alone the details.

Of course the other "Jan 6" charges are quite serious, but extraordinary cases require extraordinary evidence, most likely. I'm convinced that "45" did it, but I don't know as though there's really enough for a conviction.

[Wahoo Redux]

I will always agree that no one is above the law, but has anyone seen the polling lately?

The DOJ has made a martyr out of Trump.  He might just get elected again.

[Sun_Worshiper]

I will always agree that no one is above the law, but has anyone seen the polling lately?

The DOJ has made a martyr out of Trump.  He might just get elected again.

The indictments may have galvanized his base, but I don't think they are doing anything to help him with independents or right-leaning Democrats. What is helping him with these folks is that people are very unhappy with Biden and with the state of things in the US more generally. But the election is a year away, so I wouldn't read too much into any polls at this point.

[Wahoo Redux]

I will always agree that no one is above the law, but has anyone seen the polling lately?

The DOJ has made a martyr out of Trump.  He might just get elected again.

The indictments may have galvanized his base, but I don't think they are doing anything to help him with independents or right-leaning Democrats. What is helping him with these folks is that people are very unhappy with Biden and with the state of things in the US more generally. But the election is a year away, so I wouldn't read too much into any polls at this point.

Yeah, everything I've read says that people are unhappy with Biden----why I am not sure since he is doing a lot of stuff----but Trump has the headlines and X (formally Twitter) with fresh indignities to froth about.  Dislike of Biden + martyrdom of Trump seems like a very bad combo.

[Sun_Worshiper]

I will always agree that no one is above the law, but has anyone seen the polling lately?

The DOJ has made a martyr out of Trump.  He might just get elected again.

The indictments may have galvanized his base, but I don't think they are doing anything to help him with independents or right-leaning Democrats. What is helping him with these folks is that people are very unhappy with Biden and with the state of things in the US more generally. But the election is a year away, so I wouldn't read too much into any polls at this point.

Yeah, everything I've read says that people are unhappy with Biden----why I am not sure since he is doing a lot of stuff----but Trump has the headlines and X (formally Twitter) with fresh indignities to froth about.  Dislike of Biden + martyrdom of Trump seems like a very bad combo.

I doubt that being indicted for 91 felonies, and probably having been convicted of a few within the next year, will be an asset to Trump in a general election. And while it is a scary thought that he could be elected again, it is also good to keep in mind that he was a weak candidate in 2020, even before the insurrection and all the indictments.

Biden's polling problems are troubling, but Democrats did well in 2022 and have done well in special elections. Let's see if polls look a little better in 6 months or so as the economy continues to recover and Trump's campaign of craziness heats up.

[nebo113]

Virginia Gov. Younkin, MAGA with a smile and good hair, lost bigly yesterday.  DEMS now control House and Senate, and won many local races. 

[Wahoo Redux]

Virginia Gov. Younkin, MAGA with a smile and good hair, lost bigly yesterday.  DEMS now control House and Senate, and won many local races. 

Tee hee.  Yeah, and Ohio just passed an amendment which adds abortion rights to their constitution against strong Republican opposition, and Beshear won in Kentucky.

Maybe I am just being swept into the age of paranoia, because I do not see how Trump is electable, but I just hate to see the big orange baboon get center stage before any kind of election.

[waterboy]

And as we all know, sometimes the electoral college "trumps" the popular vote.  It will again be very close, jail or not.

[lightning]

I don't trust polls.

No one should worry about polls, especially a year out.

It's more important to mobilize and get the vote out, than to worry about the score one year out. There are casual voters who will crawl through glass and fire just to vote against Trump.

It's the polls that gave Democrats a lack of urgency in 2016. If anything, recent polling should give Democrats a good kick in the rear and not take anything for granted.

[Wahoo Redux]

If anything, recent polling should give Democrats a good kick in the rear and not take anything for granted.

From your keyboard to God's control panel.