Nature's (one of them) Editorial: Geoscience on the chopping block

[quasihumanist]

My point is that automation has finally gotten to the level where widespread substitutes for college are no longer viable.  Technology for the 2 on-shift employee Macdonalds exists now, and having to pay employees a living wage would make the capital investment worth it.  All the family farms in the Midwest are going under, no longer able to survive competition against larger, more automated operations.

[dismalist]

My point is that automation has finally gotten to the level where widespread substitutes for college are no longer viable.  Technology for the 2 on-shift employee Macdonalds exists now, and having to pay employees a living wage would make the capital investment worth it.  All the family farms in the Midwest are going under, no longer able to survive competition against larger, more automated operations.

Since 1750.

[dismalist]

New York (CNN Business)A record 4.3 million people quit their jobs in August, evidence of the considerable leverage workers have in today's economy.

About 2.9% of the workforce quit in August, up from 2.7% in July, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, released Tuesday. That marks the highest quit rate since the report began in late 2000.

The number of workers who quit rose by 242,000 from July as more Americans demanded higher pay, better working conditions and more flexible arrangements.

I can only imagine how great such mobility would be.

And the number of job openings exploded even after hitting the most recent pre covid level in March or so. On average, the quitters know what they're doing. :-)

[Stockmann]

My point is that automation has finally gotten to the level where widespread substitutes for college are no longer viable.  Technology for the 2 on-shift employee Macdonalds exists now, and having to pay employees a living wage would make the capital investment worth it.  All the family farms in the Midwest are going under, no longer able to survive competition against larger, more automated operations.

It seems some of the most severe labor shortages in the US right now include school bus drivers and customer-facing jobs in some sectors of hospitality and retail. It's not clear to me non-college-requiring jobs are actually faring worse than those requiring a college degree. Maybe once automation takes out driving as a job that will happen, but it doesn't seem to be the case right now.

[kaysixteen]

Random thought questions:

1) seeing as how possession of a college degree seems more necessary than ever, by a goodly amount, for the obtaining of many jobs that our parents and grandparents could easily have gotten without a degree, how would it likely happen that the number of kids going to, and getting, one, would be likely to significantly decrease? 

2) It may well be possible to essentially automate virtually all the human employees out of a McDs, but if McDs and other similar employers go down this route, the mass unemployment this would result in, coupled with the reduction of working-class (and increasingly also traditionally 'white collar') jobs' salaries, would be a very negative thing for the McDs of the world, as well as many more upscale businesses, as fewer and fewer Americans could afford to patronize their firms.

[Durchlässigkeitsbeiwert]

1) seeing as how possession of a college degree seems more necessary than ever, by a goodly amount, for the obtaining of many jobs that our parents and grandparents could easily have gotten without a degree, how would it likely happen that the number of kids going to, and getting, one, would be likely to significantly decrease? 

- given the demographic trends, the significant decrease in total number of students is just around the corner in some regions even if college-going proportion remains stable.
- "possession of a college degree" masks very large variability in outcomes. One can envision situation in which ongoing cost increases can make quite a few programs non-economical for students to attend.

Note that both possibilities are highly region-, institution-, or program-specific. I.e. overall growth of student body doesn't guarantee sufficient enrollment for everyone.

[jimbogumbo]

For non-academic jobs there is currently a huge shortage of available and willing workers. It is entirely possible the need for a degree will be diminishing for many jobs.

[kaysixteen]

jimbogumbo is right, theoretically, but eliminating the req for a BA for any given job that really does not need one still requires the employer a/o HR flacks to see this, and be willing to be the first guy on the block to do so.

It is of course right that the reduction in the amount of 18yos will produce an absolute reduction in the number of college students, but this does not mean that the percentage of kids going there will go down.

[Hibush]

jimbogumbo is right, theoretically, but eliminating the req for a BA for any given job that really does not need one still requires the employer a/o HR flacks to see this, and be willing to be the first guy on the block to do so.

It is of course right that the reduction in the amount of 18yos will produce an absolute reduction in the number of college students, but this does not mean that the percentage of kids going there will go down.

We are doing this battle right now with HR at the university. For some staff jobs, it used to be easy to make a masters a requirement or preferred qualification just to bring then number of applicants down to a manageable number. Now we need to fill those positions with people who can do the job, and that screen is no longer useful. A BS and demonstrated accomplishment is just fine. Unfortunately changing that requirement downgrades the position so that qualified people won't take the job.

We who value an education a whole lot also understand that the ability to do a challenging job can be gained in a variety of ways. It is the inability of HR to adapt policies to reality that hinders us.

[dismalist]

jimbogumbo is right, theoretically, but eliminating the req for a BA for any given job that really does not need one still requires the employer a/o HR flacks to see this, and be willing to be the first guy on the block to do so.

It is of course right that the reduction in the amount of 18yos will produce an absolute reduction in the number of college students, but this does not mean that the percentage of kids going there will go down.

We are doing this battle right now with HR at the university. For some staff jobs, it used to be easy to make a masters a requirement or preferred qualification just to bring then number of applicants down to a manageable number. Now we need to fill those positions with people who can do the job, and that screen is no longer useful. A BS and demonstrated accomplishment is just fine. Unfortunately changing that requirement downgrades the position so that qualified people won't take the job.

We who value an education a whole lot also understand that the ability to do a challenging job can be gained in a variety of ways. It is the inability of HR to adapt policies to reality that hinders us.

Are those that are hired qualified for what needs to be done, or not?

[mamselle]

I did EA jobs as a grad student (because of massive mess-ups in my funding) that were booked as B.A. or B.S. or above required, degrees above that considered.

Many BA/BS-level students could have done the work in one sense, but the setting was very demanding, the people could sometimes be under a lot of pressure, and you were often juggling many deadlines for grants, papers, and course packets at once. Several people in my position had or were working on advanced degrees, or had extensive experience in other settings.

Whether it would have been multiple experiences in similar jobs or additional degree work to give the applicant the multi-tasking capacities needed, HR didn't much care, as long as the interviewing profs were satisfied (one usually covered 2, 3 or 4, depending on their seniority and how much they could contribute to the pot that funded that position).

And they were picky, so defaulting to them made sense.

It was an outrigger institute to the main university, though, so it also had its own mini-HR office tied to the main HR office. The mini-office did most of the grunt work, hiring, onboarding, etc., so it was easier to negotiate things with them and let them work out the wrinkles with their overseers later.

M.

[jimbogumbo]

Not the college admissions staple, but I'll use McDonalds as an example. They are paying $15 per hour now to start. Many (the one I prefer to stop in, for example) cannot keep the dine in option open except on weekends. They are paying bonuses for anyone with management experience. They and Starbucks offer free tuition at a CC or online through ASU for any full time worker that wants an AA. The same is true at the grocery stores (Kroger, King Sooper, that chain) which in fact has a union. The number of college age students who will go to college will drop in absolute terms, and the number whoo will do so without this kind of work and tuition support even more. I think it is in large part a good thing.

I'm arguing that I BELIEVE this will also result in the type of change I'm envisioning re credentialing. And, in another plus, not only is full time, benefited employment becoming more the norm where part time was the last 10 years, the scheduling of awful shifts is going away.

That, btw,  might actually help f2f enrollments. The only way to attend college when you worked two weeks on first shift, then two weeks on second shift was via asynchronous online, which simply isn't as good an option for many full time workers. Better, consistent shifts is a plus.

[Hibush]

jimbogumbo is right, theoretically, but eliminating the req for a BA for any given job that really does not need one still requires the employer a/o HR flacks to see this, and be willing to be the first guy on the block to do so.

Unfortunately changing that requirement downgrades the position so that qualified people won't take the job.

Are those that are hired qualified for what needs to be done, or not?

We are unable to fill the positions at all. That is the worst outcome.