Coronavirus

[Hegemony]

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Eo9M4-BrJA

Wow, that's amazing. So well done. "Curving can get flatter..."

[hmaria1609]

Yesterday, DC Mayor Bowser issued a new travel order for the city regarding visitors:
https://wtop.com/dc/2020/11/mayor-bowsers-newest-order-for-dc-visitors-need-to-get-tested/
Maryland and Virginia are exempted.

[nebo113]

67 new cases in my county of 37,000.  Probably nursing homes, though masks are a political symbol here.

[Cheerful]

The Pfizer vaccine news seems like real cause for optimism!  Nice way to start the week.

[Puget]

The Pfizer vaccine news seems like real cause for optimism!  Nice way to start the week.

Yes! We'll have to see if it holds up, but 90% effectiveness would be a game changer compared to the less optimistic estimates for vaccines.
The main problems with that one is that it has to be kept super chilled, which will make it harder to distribute, especially in less developed countries, and that it requires 2 doses. But there are lots of others under development, and this should be enough to get started with for healthcare workers, nursing home residents, and others at high risk.

This week just keeps getting better. . .

[apl68]

We have nearly 60 active cases now.  Anecdotally it appears that a lot of people couldn't resist Halloween partying, after all the church and civic events got cancelled.  We've had 13 people die of COVID in our county.  We've had a lot of people dying of all sorts of things lately.  This has been a bad year for us, only partially due to COVID.

[Parasaurolophus]

The Pfizer vaccine news seems like real cause for optimism!  Nice way to start the week.

Cautious optimism. Even if a vaccine arrives, production and distribution are a problem, and it gets compounded if the conferred immunity is relatively brief or boosters are required. Billions of people need to vaccinated against COVID-19 at least once, maybe twice (or, worse, yearly!). But we also need to maintain the production and distribution of extant vaccines.

Johnson & Johnson is planning to scale up to a billion doses a year (IIRC by far the most of any single producer). CureVac's at 400 million. If we estimate 3 billion doses a year--which seems rather optimistic--that's still more than half the world getting zero doses. If you need two doses, we're down to a quarter of the world. And if you need yearly boosters, we're fucked. And all that's assuming no significant mutations (see: Danish mink).

So: cautious optimism. I'm not expecting to get it for a couple years, at least, and Canada has been really proactive about securing enough doses for the entire population (twice over or more).

[Cheerful]

We need hope during these dark times and I'm hopeful.  It's certainly better news than hearing that the Pfizer trial failed.

As an analyst on CNBC said, it conveys to people that there can and will be an end to this thing; that if people just hang on awhile longer with the difficulties of masks, social distancing, financial concerns, etc., this will end.  With no end in sight, people get fatigued and hopeless.

I view vaccines as one part of the big strategy for beating this thing.

[spork]

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening

[Langue_doc]

New York just announced new restrictions. Indoor gatherings are limited to 10 persons.
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/11/11/nyc-health-officials-warn-of-second-wave-as-coronavirus-numbers-climb/

[Chris J]

Currently there is uncontrolled spread in every state except Hawaii and Vermont.
We are headed toward a horrifying number of months.

[dismalist]

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening

This, too, makes a lot of sense.

[hmaria1609]

From WTOP Radio online--Gov. Hogan announced reduced capacity in restaurants and gatherings in Maryland:
https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/11/maryland-coronavirus-update-november-10/

A complementary article regarding the DC area:
https://wtop.com/local/2020/11/dc-area-health-officials-on-guard-as-covid-19-winter-approaches/

[apl68]

The number of active cases in now declining in our county.  One town had to shut down its schools after 11 students tested positive, with 15 teachers and classes quarantined as a result.

[hmaria1609]

Follow up on Maryland's covid-19 prep for the winter months:
https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/11/maryland-coronavirus-update-november-12/
From WTOP Radio online (11/12/20)

Also, AAA Mid-Atlantic on Thanksgiving travel:
https://wtop.com/travel/2020/11/home-for-the-holiday-aaa-forecasts-thanksgiving-travel-at-historic-lows/