Coronavirus

[dismalist]

Where is this increase in new cases?

The Northeast, where case rates have almost doubled since mid March.

I find Sweden interesting. Least restrictive policies and low deaths.

Unless you compare their total death rate to neighboring similar countries with more restrictive policies

Possibly interesting. But it looks like Sweden makes it.

In deaths https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=SWE~DNK~FIN

In cases https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=SWE~DNK~FIN

The US data suggest any current increase is local. It is certainly small. Nationally, it hardly counts. Of course, it will spread. But given all the international data, it seems not a cause for alarm.

That's really the point. We all differ in our risk aversion. No group owns their preferred policy. Question is who pays whom to get to their desired level of risk.


[ETA.: Forgot Norway. Still works for Sweden. Current cases and deaths.]

[Anon1787]

Where is this increase in new cases?

The Northeast, where case rates have almost doubled since mid March.

I find Sweden interesting. Least restrictive policies and low deaths.

Unless you compare their total death rate to neighboring similar countries with more restrictive policies

Cases are no longer a particularly good metric. It's estimated that upwards of 70% of people in Denmark were infected with Omicron. You'd need to do China-style lockdowns to prevent significant spread. It's arguably better for people to get infected now since Omicron is less virulent and people are vaccinated.

[dismalist]

Where is this increase in new cases?

The Northeast, where case rates have almost doubled since mid March.

I find Sweden interesting. Least restrictive policies and low deaths.

Unless you compare their total death rate to neighboring similar countries with more restrictive policies

Cases are no longer a particularly good metric. It's estimated that upwards of 70% of people in Denmark were infected with Omicron. You'd need to do China-style lockdowns to prevent significant spread. It's arguably better for people to get infected now since Omicron is less virulent and people are vaccinated.

That's why the death numbers are more informative. But I know of no data for China. Thus, we cannot even say that lockdowns help.

But current policy promulgations are justified in the news by case counts.

The Omicron characteristics should be widespread knowledge, but they aren't.

Anyways, the place for policy decisions about Covid is at a most decentral level, not because of lack of knowledge, but because people differ in risk aversion.

[Anon1787]

Looking back, I think that Sweden's policy during the first year of the pandemic is more questionable.

Currently, however, given the characteristics of Omicron and the failure of mitigation measures (other than vaccination) imposed in countries like Denmark to have a significant effect, I agree that decision-making should be done at a very local level and that the onus should be on those who argue otherwise.

[mamselle]

They said that in 1721, too.

M.

[science.expat]

Here in Aus, the Omicron variant is running rampant. We're sitting at about 20,000 new cases a day in NSW from a population of about 8 million. But hospitalisations are fairly low as is the death rate. I've had it, as have many of my colleagues.

For me, triple vaxxed and in my late 50s, the symptoms were very mild - just like a 3 day head cold. But other folks my age have had much worse flu like symptoms. However, I don't know anyone who has gone to hospital but I note that none of them are particularly vulnerable.

[spork]

NBER working paper: A FINAL REPORT CARD ON THE STATES' RESPONSE TO COVID-19

[downer]

NBER working paper: A FINAL REPORT CARD ON THE STATES' RESPONSE TO COVID-19

For me, the stand-out finding is

The Relationship Between Mortality, Education, and Economy Scores
Excluding the geographically  unusual cases of Hawaii and Alaska to focus on the continental U.S., there is no apparent relationship between reduced economic activity during the pandemic and our composite mortality measure.

It's going to be very difficult for any state to impose lockdown in the future. And as for school closures, hard to see anyone making a convincing argument for them again.

School closures did have a moderate correlation with our mortality measure, but based on the literature we do not believe this relationship was causal.

Previously the CDC and politicians could say that their recommendations were from an abundance of caution. But now there are data.

[Langue_doc]

Where is this increase in new cases?

The Northeast, where case rates have almost doubled since mid March.

I find Sweden interesting. Least restrictive policies and low deaths.

Unless you compare their total death rate to neighboring similar countries with more restrictive policies

If you scroll down to the map of the hotspots, you can see that cases are going up in the Northeast.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?name=styln-coronavirus&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=show&is_new=false

I was talking to someone from one of the northern states who tested positive for Covid last week after experiencing severe Covid symptoms, and then two of the kids tested positive earlier this week, followed by the spouse, and then the third kid. This is a highly contagious variant, which, while not as serious as the previous ones, is still strong enough to require bed rest and taking time off from work. At least two teachers from two different kids' schools also tested positive either late last week or early this week. In addition, the neighbors who share the back fence came down with Covid (kids go to the same school) around the same time, as did some of the people who socialized with the person who came down with Covid last week. This is not by any means a congested neighborhood or school district.

[dismalist]

NBER working paper: A FINAL REPORT CARD ON THE STATES' RESPONSE TO COVID-19

For me, the stand-out finding is

The Relationship Between Mortality, Education, and Economy Scores
Excluding the geographically  unusual cases of Hawaii and Alaska to focus on the continental U.S., there is no apparent relationship between reduced economic activity during the pandemic and our composite mortality measure.

It's going to be very difficult for any state to impose lockdown in the future. And as for school closures, hard to see anyone making a convincing argument for them again.

School closures did have a moderate correlation with our mortality measure, but based on the literature we do not believe this relationship was causal.

Previously the CDC and politicians could say that their recommendations were from an abundance of caution. But now there are data.

Oh, there's plenty of caution -- on the part of politicians being cautious so as not to mar their re-election chances!

As usual, the problem is us. We tend to overestimate small risks if we are not familiar with them, or until we are familiar with them. We transmit this to the politicians. The media exaggerate risk. That sells.

That paper Spork linked is really useful and heartening. One thing to keep in mind is

Because COVID infection mortality risk is extremely age-related -- 8700 times higher in age 85+ than in 5 to 17,
according to the CDC

[Hegemony]

A friend of mine went out to eat in a restaurant last week, something I am decidedly not yet willing to do, even though we're allegedly in a low-transmission area. Friend is now sick and has tested positive.

In related news, 3/20 of my students have tested positive. In the last three days.

(I am still teaching in an N95 mask, and am not going to stop any time soon.)

I read someone saying that when an area has "low numbers," it doesn't mean that the number of COVID cases is actually all that low — it means there is still room in the hospital for you.

[Ruralguy]

Its an algorithm taking into account cases, deaths, hospitalizations, hospital capacity, and their derivatives. You can check the CDC site to see if case numbers are actually low.

Im still wearing a mask inside. I didn't outside yesterday and a student  basically sneezed right on me.

[mamselle]

Interesting vignette, at least to me: I went to the bank machine area, which is in the forecourt of the bank itself.

It was after they'd opened, so both doors to the machine area were accessible (usually after-hours, just the main door is).

I was masked, gloved, and had already started to walk towards the machine when an unmasked kid strode in through the side door, which is near the machine, and started using it.

I backed away, walked out, and said, "OK, I'll come back later."

He looked surprised (to be fair, maybe he hadn't seen me), but he didn't apologize or offer to wait (I was closer to the machine than he was and had my card out) and walked up to the machine and started swiping his card.

It struck me that, a) it hadn't occurred to him that someone might need to be in the space alone; b) if they did, he wasn't going to cede the option even though he'd arrived later, and c) we're now at the point where, even in an area/town that's usually respectful and courteous to others, consideration of prior approach, possible need for isolation, and the concept of waiting for others is by-the-by.

The burden of isolation now, apparently, falls fully on those who need to be isolated, even when it might seem obvious that they have that need, and one courteous option might be to let the person who needs to be alone go first.   

Not a biggie at some levels, but it was different than it's been (and our wastewater outflow numbers are not looking good at present, so this issue is really not yet over.)

Tant pis. La vie continue.   

M.

[Anon1787]

The burden of isolation now, apparently, falls fully on those who need to be isolated, even when it might seem obvious that they have that need, and one courteous option might be to let the person who needs to be alone go first.   

Without further information, I'd just assume that someone wearing a mask and gloves is a cautious belt-and-suspenders type of person rather than having any special medical need, so I would not vacate the room either.

[Stockmann]

Does anyone have any insights into what China's leadership is doing? Surely they realize that, even if the Shanghai lockdown succeeds in bringing cases down to zero, in some weeks or months there'd be cases again, and even if they again succeeded in bringing cases down to zero with lockdowns, it's be the same thing again and again.
I guess part of it is saving face - doing a U-turn would be implicitly admitting their Covid policy is not, in fact, the best in the world, and there's the issue of their crappy vaccines.  But the financial, social and psychological costs are surely vast - and a regime that's long boasted its economic successes has literally brought hunger back to Shanghai. They're making seemingly zero effort to not traumatize children, meaning China will bear the consequences for many decades to come. Plus, the lockdown isn't even working, the omicron wave seems to be spreading to Beijing - yet the regime seems to be doubling down.