Coronavirus

[jimbogumbo]

Do most analysts have confidence that COVID cases and deaths data reported by various countries are likely to be accurate?  I am skeptical.

I don't know about actual analysts, but that's why I tend to look at the number of deaths rather than the number of cases - deaths are likely to be less underreported I think, and thus more comparable internationally. The testing rate varies dramatically between countries, but there are still large differences between countries that test heavily, I'm thinking S. Korea vs the US. Both have now tested extensively, so the death rates are likely a fair comparison. On the other hand, some countries that do little testing still have high official death rates (Mexico, for example) and thus surely have truly god-awful real figures. I also prefer looking at the death rate because it also tells you something about how effectively hospitals are coping, etc.

I would highly recommend looking at excess mortality data also.

[spork]

Do most analysts have confidence that COVID cases and deaths data reported by various countries are likely to be accurate?  I am skeptical.

I don't know about actual analysts, but that's why I tend to look at the number of deaths rather than the number of cases - deaths are likely to be less underreported I think, and thus more comparable internationally. The testing rate varies dramatically between countries, but there are still large differences between countries that test heavily, I'm thinking S. Korea vs the US. Both have now tested extensively, so the death rates are likely a fair comparison. On the other hand, some countries that do little testing still have high official death rates (Mexico, for example) and thus surely have truly god-awful real figures. I also prefer looking at the death rate because it also tells you something about how effectively hospitals are coping, etc.

I would highly recommend looking at excess mortality data also.

Yes. With time we will have a much clearer picture of how deadly SARS-CoV-2 is and to whom.

Any country with low prevalence and a high case fatality ratio is grossly undercounting cases, either by choice or by circumstance.

[Langue_doc]

Last I checked, India was part of Asia. And it most definitely does not have the virus under control, and its death rate is not good, either.

On a per capita basis they are doing much better than most st of the countries listed.  I am actually surprised it has not exploded much more dramatically there.

India has only 97 deaths per million pop. The US figure is about 8 times higher, and Belgium's is nearly 14 times higher.

Their numbers are also falling while the US and many other countries are still climbing.

I understand that India had quite drastic shutdowns and curfews. Public transportation, including air traffic was suspended and people were required to stay home unless they had to go to work. Schools and colleges were closed. Grocery stores were open only for a certain number of hours a day. This was during the early stages of the pandemic. I'm not sure what restrictions are in effect now.

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

I found out that some of my relatives are planning to get together up North- about 17 of them.

[hmaria1609]

Gov. Hogan sent state troopers throughout Maryland to enforce covid-19 rules. So far, no arrests:
https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/11/no-arrests-so-far-as-maryland-state-police-enforce-covid-19-rules/
Scroll down past the links bracket/break for the 2nd half of the article. Yesterday, an automated alert went out that bars and restaurants needed to be closed by 10 pm.

[Parasaurolophus]

The Supreme Court ruled against Cuomo's attendance limits for churches today.

[nebo113]

The Supreme Court ruled against Cuomo's attendance limits for churches today.

Churches:  The New Death Pods

[AmLitHist]

One of my very good Comp II live virtual lecture (LVL) students emailed me yesterday evening:  she's in the hospital with COVID and pneumonia.  She's a really sweet young girl, and I"m worried about her.  They usually haven't been hospitalizing young people around here unless they're very sick, plus, STL hospitals are full to the rafters right now. (I have several nurse friends working at different places, and one said they've started looking for beds in Chicago where they can send patients if needed.)  My student has bad asthma, and an attack is what landed her in the ER Thanksgiving night.  Her family all tested positive a couple of weeks ago, but she was negative then; she was most worried about her sister--who I'd taught last spring!--because the sister also has asthma and was very sick.

This stuff is scary.

[fleabite]

AmLitHist, directing all good thoughts towards your hospitalized student. It is scary stuff. I hope she pulls through, and quickly.

[wareagle]

AmLitHist, do you have an update on your student?

[hmaria1609]

From WTOP Radio online: Video interview with Dr. Fauci and virus safety
https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/11/fauci-on-covid-19-were-in-a-particularly-vulnerable-period/
Posted 11/30/20

[apl68]

This morning we had somebody trying to book the library's meeting room to hold a meeting in protest of masking rules.  I told him that we couldn't hold such a meeting here, since we had to go by the Governor's indoor masking mandate.  Then I sent out an e-mail to our Mayor, giving her a heads up and letting her know that she has support in standing firm against such foolishness.

I just don't get people sometimes.  We have a local mother of three dying of COVID right now.  And people can't be bothered to wear masks?  In cold weather no less?

[spork]

This morning we had somebody trying to book the library's meeting room to hold a meeting in protest of masking rules.  I told him that we couldn't hold such a meeting here, since we had to go by the Governor's indoor masking mandate.  Then I sent out an e-mail to our Mayor, giving her a heads up and letting her know that she has support in standing firm against such foolishness.

I just don't get people sometimes.  We have a local mother of three dying of COVID right now.  And people can't be bothered to wear masks?  In cold weather no less?

How much has the media shown images of what's happening inside hospitals? Not happening where I live. But any demonstration against basic safety precautions, no matter how small, gets extensive coverage.

[AmLitHist]

RE:  my student with COVID:  she emailed me last night, asking if it's OK if she tries to finish the semester, rather than taking the incomplete I've offered.  She's that kind of student.*  I told her of course she can, but if she finds it's too much, the offer still stands. 

She got out of the hospital yesterday morning--not because she's completely well, but because the hospital is hurting for bed space, and since her entire family has already had the virus and recovered, she was the best candidate to be released into home care provided by her mom and sister.

I hope she recovers well, but I also hope she emails me in a day or two and requests the incomplete.  This class isn't all that important in the big picture, and I'd rather have her finish up over the break and focus now on getting some rest and getting better, instead.
---
*I was that student myself:  I had pneumonia most of the fall of my second year of college.

The college doctor assured me I wasn't contagious, gave me some good cough syrup that kept me quiet for a couple of hours, and told me to do what I felt like doing.

Instead of going home and getting well, I'd drag myself to classes, go back to the dorm and do my homework, have girls on my floor bring food up from the Dining Commons to me, and sleep--then do it all again the next day, for about 2 months.

[wareagle]

RE:  my student with COVID:  she emailed me last night, asking if it's OK if she tries to finish the semester, rather than taking the incomplete I've offered.  She's that kind of student.*  I told her of course she can, but if she finds it's too much, the offer still stands. 

She got out of the hospital yesterday morning--not because she's completely well, but because the hospital is hurting for bed space, and since her entire family has already had the virus and recovered, she was the best candidate to be released into home care provided by her mom and sister.

I hope she recovers well, but I also hope she emails me in a day or two and requests the incomplete.  This class isn't all that important in the big picture, and I'd rather have her finish up over the break and focus now on getting some rest and getting better, instead.
---
*I was that student myself:  I had pneumonia most of the fall of my second year of college.

The college doctor assured me I wasn't contagious, gave me some good cough syrup that kept me quiet for a couple of hours, and told me to do what I felt like doing.

Instead of going home and getting well, I'd drag myself to classes, go back to the dorm and do my homework, have girls on my floor bring food up from the Dining Commons to me, and sleep--then do it all again the next day, for about 2 months.

I am glad she has her mom and sister to take care of her.  Sounds very scary.

I'm sure she appreciates your offer of the Incomplete.  Professors as caring as you make my job a whole lot easier.  Thank you.