Coronavirus

[spork]

I saw a recent Facebook comment to the effect that "some doctors think wearing masks is dangerous, too." Is that really true? If so, why? My gut reaction is that the commenter is grabbing a hypothetical as an excuse to do what they want to do, rather than relying on actual published authoritative recommendations that they don't want to do.

No, except for a few quacks who should have their licenses revoked.

[Cheerful]

So far, the vaccine rollouts are less than inspiring and encouraging.  Plus talk of cutting Moderna doses in half?

I am optimistic things will get better in the coming weeks.  Israel is reportedly doing very well; maybe we can learn from their example?  If they have an extra shot left, they go out in the street and vaccinate a pizza delivery guy, they don't waste that vaccine.

[downer]

So far, the vaccine rollouts are less than inspiring and encouraging.  Plus talk of cutting Moderna doses in half?

I am optimistic things will get better in the coming weeks.  Israel is reportedly doing very well; maybe we can learn from their example?  If they have an extra shot left, they go out in the street and vaccinate a pizza delivery guy, they don't waste that vaccine.

It isn't surprising that the US is doing such a bad job with the lack of federal leadership and the lack of national health infrastructure to oversee the roll out of the vaccine.  While Israel may be doing well, it seems that some other countries with national health infrastructure are also not doing a great job though. Is this not something that was planned ahead of time?

[apl68]

So far, the vaccine rollouts are less than inspiring and encouraging.  Plus talk of cutting Moderna doses in half?

I am optimistic things will get better in the coming weeks.  Israel is reportedly doing very well; maybe we can learn from their example?  If they have an extra shot left, they go out in the street and vaccinate a pizza delivery guy, they don't waste that vaccine.

It isn't surprising that the US is doing such a bad job with the lack of federal leadership and the lack of national health infrastructure to oversee the roll out of the vaccine.  While Israel may be doing well, it seems that some other countries with national health infrastructure are also not doing a great job though. Is this not something that was planned ahead of time?

Undoubtedly, but they've had to make their plans while simultaneously overseeing an accelerated vaccine development and test program and dealing with the public health crisis of the century.  It's hard to drain the swamp when you're already up to your rear end in alligators.

Israel may have pointers worth picking up on, but let's not forget that they're a geographically minute nation.  Not a nation of over 300 million people spread over a couple million square miles.

[mythbuster]

The one thing everyone seems to overlook in their vaccine rollout complaints is that this all started during Christmas. Now I fully agree that that should NOT be a factor, but think about how hard it is to track down someone at your institution over the last three week. Everyone was OUT.
   Mr. Buster works at a globally recognized medical center. This is a place that had testing up and running as fast anywhere in the country. Even they had issues getting all the employees vaccinated due to the holiday break. He got his first dose the Monday after Christmas. This was well before many who should have been higher priority, simply because he was willing to drive into work on that day. Trying to get the state or county public health folks organized over Christmas? Good luck!
   For those interested he got the Moderna. Slight headache that afternoon and a sore arm for 24 hours after. The stated plan was to vaccinate all in hospital patients starting 1/4, so I assume at that point they think all employees will have had at least the first dose.

[Cheerful]

Is this not something that was planned ahead of time?

The lack of health-disaster preparedness in the U.S., as revealed by the current crisis, is stunning.  I'm hopeful much will be learned and analysts will have solid recommendations for improving vaccine distribution, etc. in the future after they study the many deficiencies revealed by this case.  Future generations shall benefit from our suffering.

At least some states had longstanding vaccine distribution plans (pre-COVID-19) but those are being cast aside now.  Waste of planning time and money?

And our system of federalism leads to lots of passing the buck and shirking responsibility: "it's the feds' fault, it's the states' fault, the locals are inept," and so on.

[mamselle]

Actually, an article I read, over the summer, I think, pointed out that the Obama health workers had left a detailed plan, developed after the earlier SARS issues had arisen, for just such a pandemic as arrived.

It was thrown out by the incoming administration's workers shortly after they transitioned into place in January of 2020.

I'll look for the article, I have the link in my emails.

M.

[mamselle]

Actually, an article I read, over the summer, I think, pointed out that the Obama health workers had left a detailed plan, developed after the earlier SARS issues had arisen, for just such a pandemic as arrived.

It was thrown out by the incoming administration's workers shortly after they transitioned into place in January of 2020.

I'll look for the article, I have the link in my emails.

M.

[ciao_yall]

There is a whole writeup on what went wrong with COVID in the New Yorker.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year

If it's behind a paywall, PM me and I'll send you a PDF.

[Stockmann]

Undoubtedly, but they've had to make their plans while simultaneously overseeing an accelerated vaccine development and test program and dealing with the public health crisis of the century.  It's hard to drain the swamp when you're already up to your rear end in alligators.

Israel may have pointers worth picking up on, but let's not forget that they're a geographically minute nation.  Not a nation of over 300 million people spread over a couple million square miles.

Israel has nevertheless done far better than other minute nations and seems to be in a league of its own regarding vaccinations. Belgium is also a minute state and has been far worse hit, yet doesn't match Israel in immunization rates. Then again, Belgium isn't known as the world's richest failed state for nothing.

The lack of health-disaster preparedness in the U.S., as revealed by the current crisis, is stunning.  I'm hopeful much will be learned and analysts will have solid recommendations for improving vaccine distribution, etc. in the future after they study the many deficiencies revealed by this case.  Future generations shall benefit from our suffering.

At least some states had longstanding vaccine distribution plans (pre-COVID-19) but those are being cast aside now.  Waste of planning time and money?

And our system of federalism leads to lots of passing the buck and shirking responsibility: "it's the feds' fault, it's the states' fault, the locals are inept," and so on.

France has a centralized system, yet has done far worse than the US:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55529240

[Kron3007]

Undoubtedly, but they've had to make their plans while simultaneously overseeing an accelerated vaccine development and test program and dealing with the public health crisis of the century.  It's hard to drain the swamp when you're already up to your rear end in alligators.

Israel may have pointers worth picking up on, but let's not forget that they're a geographically minute nation.  Not a nation of over 300 million people spread over a couple million square miles.

Israel has nevertheless done far better than other minute nations and seems to be in a league of its own regarding vaccinations. Belgium is also a minute state and has been far worse hit, yet doesn't match Israel in immunization rates. Then again, Belgium isn't known as the world's richest failed state for nothing.

The lack of health-disaster preparedness in the U.S., as revealed by the current crisis, is stunning.  I'm hopeful much will be learned and analysts will have solid recommendations for improving vaccine distribution, etc. in the future after they study the many deficiencies revealed by this case.  Future generations shall benefit from our suffering.

At least some states had longstanding vaccine distribution plans (pre-COVID-19) but those are being cast aside now.  Waste of planning time and money?

And our system of federalism leads to lots of passing the buck and shirking responsibility: "it's the feds' fault, it's the states' fault, the locals are inept," and so on.

France has a centralized system, yet has done far worse than the US:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55529240

I would also argue that "minute" nations also have proportionally "minute" resources.  Obviously things are more complex when there are 300 million people, but the US has more resources per capita than most and that is why there are local governments etc.   

I think part of the answer here is also related to who has access to vaccines.  There is a very limited supply and Israel managed to get near the front of the line (probably good planning).  For example, I am in Canada, and we do not have access to enough vaccine to be at the same point as Israel.  Of course, even if we did, we would have botched it since we have not even been able to use what we do have. 

Centralized systems are only more efficient if they are well managed.  My understanding of Europe's vaccine plan is that they kind of dropped the ball. 

[apl68]

The fact that there are problems getting the vaccination efforts in gear in so many nations suggests that it's more a matter of the inherent challenges involved than cloddish incompetence on the part of this or that political leadership.  Again, this is not an easy project we're talking about.  As stupid as the Trump administration's failure to maintain the Obama-era preparations for mass vaccination may have been, I can't help suspecting that any theoretical vaccination plans made several years before COVID showed up would have had a serious problem measuring up to the real-world challenges that they have to deal with now. 

[dismalist]

As stupid as the Trump administration's failure to maintain the Obama-era preparations for mass vaccination may have been, I can't help suspecting that any theoretical vaccination plans made several years before COVID showed up would have had a serious problem measuring up to the real-world challenges that they have to deal with now.

Alas, there were many, many, too many plans to combat such problems made over the years.  There's this, from April no less: https://medium.com/cicero-news/why-two-decades-of-pandemic-planning-failed-a20608d05800

Upshot is that Congress never gave any individual Agency authority to do anything. The author is too CDC friendly, the firm that brought you no masks and no tests. The same could be written about the FDA, which brought delayed vaccines. Hell, vaccines were created on the first weekend the virus was put on the web.

The problem is not one of federalism -- see federal Germany, and non-federal France, so far --  but rather Congress passing the buck to experts, who in turn become intensely political. They make things so safe -- for themselves,  to keep their jobs.

[mamselle]

experts, who in turn become intensely political. They make things so safe -- for themselves,  to keep their jobs.

....except when they don't, and then they're fired, sidelined, and silenced.

This is indeed the month of Janus, the two-faced god of those that want everything both ways.

M.

[Stockmann]

Not just in terms of vaccines, but more broadly I think broadly in terms of pandemic response two issues appear to be decisive, overriding everything else:

-Public leadership and effective public sector action, from leadership at the top to sufficiently nimble public agencies. For a particularly dramatic comparison, Belgium would seem to have every material advantage compared to Vietnam, yet Vietnam has done orders of magnitude better - the Vietnamese authorities were willing and able to take drastic action quickly and effectively, while Belgium in recent years broke Iraq's record of length of time without a government.
-Societal response and attitudes - from willingness to accept being inconvenienced for the sake of the greater good to trust in science to a sense of responsibility towards others. Confucianist cultures did extremely well pretty much regardless of wealth, size or form of government (including Japan where there were no drastic government measures), while non-Confucianist places run by divisive populists (USA, UK, Mexico, Brazil) have done pretty badly. Theocratic Iran has done worse than probably any country between the Red Sea and the Bering Strait.

Wealth, form of government, physical geography and population density appear to be irrelevant in comparison.