Coronavirus

[pgher]

I'm hearing about more and more students, TAs, and coworkers getting COVID.  What's scary is that some tested positive, but don't have any symptoms (yet).  So many cases and it's still a small enough percentage of the community so we are nowhere near "herd immunity".  It's going to be a long winter.

Heard on the news that 59% of spread is asymptomatic.

I was talking to a colleague today whose town has >30% positivity rates. That's not good. I think my city's rate is in the mid-20's.

[nebo113]

My county/region are at 30+

[clean]

Background.... Democrats claim that they will 'follow the science'.  Recent headlines are that the Biden camp is looking to release the reserved vaccines.  Remember that the SCIENCE says that it takes 2 shots - given 3 or 4 weeks apart, depending on the brand.  The Trump administration has reserved the second shot to ensure that once the sequence is started, the second shot is available for on time delivery.

Now the Biden camp is reportedly looking to follow the British plan to give everyone one shot right away and catch up on the second 'when we can'.  How is THAT following the SCIENCE? 

Currently unknown, as far as I can determine, is what happens IF you dont get the second shot, or you dont get it for four months, rather than 4 weeks?  Will you have immunity or not?  IF not, then this is all a 'feel good' waste!  Without immunity, then there is no point in even getting the shot?  It wont help the hospitalization rates, or help reduce fatalities.

IF one has to go through all sorts of hurdles and wait in all sorts of lines to get the first shot, would you repeat it to get the still in short supply second shot?  And even if you were willing, it is not likely that if the supplies are released that there will even BE a second shot to get (and it wont likely be available as designed!)

Idiots! 

[Cheerful]

Now the Biden camp is reportedly looking to follow the British plan to give everyone one shot right away and catch up on the second 'when we can'.  How is THAT following the SCIENCE? 

It's not.  Trying to take shortcuts in life often has negative consequences.  I'd rather they take the months to recruit volunteers and conduct new trials to determine efficacy of different dosage methods.

But things are starting to sound desperate so, who knows....?

All the supposedly bureaucratic delays holding up getting people vaccinated are puzzling.  More transparency from officials would be nice.

[clean]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-release-covid-19-vaccine-doses-departure-current/story?id=75134072

It's not.

Im afraid that they ARE.  At least that is the reading of this article and several others that are available to read.

The article indicates that the incoming administration is going to HOPE that the production of new vaccine is sufficient to get the second dose out on time. 

"A Biden transition official tells ABC News they have faith vaccine manufacturers can produce enough vaccines to ensure people get their second dose in a timely manner"

[Puget]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-release-covid-19-vaccine-doses-departure-current/story?id=75134072

It's not.

Im afraid that they ARE.  At least that is the reading of this article and several others that are available to read.

The article indicates that the incoming administration is going to HOPE that the production of new vaccine is sufficient to get the second dose out on time. 

"A Biden transition official tells ABC News they have faith vaccine manufacturers can produce enough vaccines to ensure people get their second dose in a timely manner"

I don't think they are going on hope-- I'm certain they've talked with the manufacturers and gotten assurances on this front, and are also saying they will use the defense production act if necessary.

At any rate the major bottleneck right now is not available doses but getting them into people. Many states are not being flexible enough with priority levels to use doses efficiently. They need to get a lot nimbler about this, fast!

[spork]

Everything I've read, and heard second- or third-hand from public health officials and physicians who are more closely connected to the vaccination process than I am, indicates that the problem is with distribution, not production.

I want to clarify something I wrote upthread about my mom's situation. She lives in a non-profit, charity-operated retirement home. It's not an assisted living facility, nursing home, or similar hellscape owned by a private equity firm. The place had zero Covid-19 cases until the week before Christmas; the staff has done a good job keeping everyone healthy and alive.

Question for people who might have more technical knowledge on the subject than I do: publicly-reported Covid-19 deaths now stand at about 365,000 in the USA. Yet if I look at state health department and CDC mortality statistics for excess deaths in 2020, heart disease and dementias are by far the leading causes. Excess deaths from respiratory infections, which is the category in which I assume most Covid-19 deaths would be put, are far lower. Also total excess deaths are no where near what would create a national total of 365,000. So what's going on?

[clean]

I don't think they are going on hope

"A Biden transition official tells ABC News they have faith vaccine manufacturers can produce enough vaccines

Is "Faith" =/= "hope" in this case?

How to you ensure that the second shot is going to be there when it is required in 3/4 weeks respectively?  Set it aside when the first one is given.
Anything short of that is adding uncertainty and potentially putting people's lives at risk.
Perhaps I am too extreme on this, but I still think that someone is going to DIE because the second dose is not available when it should be given and some will mistakenly believe that they are able to reduce their safety measures.

How many are shopping NOW without a mask?  Will everyone be even as vigilant after the first shot?  Remember, many say that the mask protects THEM, not you.  IF they are not wearing a mask, are You protected??  Or will we be back to discussing the meaning of "hope" with respect to the level of immunity delivered after only one dose of the vaccine (and a second 'promised' at a future date).


The Defense Production Act?  Give me a break!  It is not going to make items appear from nothing?  (It is not a star trek replicator!)  It takes time to get done initially, and even then, it takes time to change the manufacturing.  It wont ensure that the second dose is available ON TIME.

On Preview, I agree that the news seems to indicate that Spork is correct. The problem is not making the vaccine, but getting it effectively distributed from the states!  Having more available wont get it out of the states' warehouses and into arms!
In my area the reginal grocery store chain is supposed to be dispensing shots soon.  Send it to THEIR warehouse and let them ship from there!  (They certainly know how to put TP on the shelves, ONCE they get it from the suppliers!)

[clean]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/biden-plans-to-release-the-entire-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-instead-of-reserving-half-to-guarantee-second-doses/ar-BB1cAxfQ?ocid=Peregrine&li=BBnb7Kz

[Cheerful]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-release-covid-19-vaccine-doses-departure-current/story?id=75134072

It's not.

Im afraid that they ARE.  At least that is the reading of this article and several others that are available to read.

I meant that it's not science to not follow findings and procedures derived from scientific vaccine trials.  I wasn't using "it's" in reference to Biden Admin.

[Cheerful]

Question for people who might have more technical knowledge on the subject than I do: publicly-reported Covid-19 deaths now stand at about 365,000 in the USA. Yet if I look at state health department and CDC mortality statistics for excess deaths in 2020, heart disease and dementias are by far the leading causes. Excess deaths from respiratory infections, which is the category in which I assume most Covid-19 deaths would be put, are far lower. Also total excess deaths are no where near what would create a national total of 365,000. So what's going on?

Interesting.  There were fewer flu deaths, right?

[clean]

Interesting.  There were fewer flu deaths, right?

Travel restrictions are being given significant credit for the drop in the cases of flu in the Northern Hemisphere.  Most flu cases occur in the 'winter'. Those with the flu in the Southern Hemisphere over the June/September (and beyond) period - (Winter in the Southern Hemisphere) were not permitted to venture to the Northern Hemisphere to pass the flu along. 

In addition, the mask requirements and better personal hygiene (hand washing) is also credited with the drop in flu cases.  Few flu cases, fewer flu deaths. 

[spork]

Interesting.  There were fewer flu deaths, right?

Travel restrictions are being given significant credit for the drop in the cases of flu in the Northern Hemisphere.  Most flu cases occur in the 'winter'. Those with the flu in the Southern Hemisphere over the June/September (and beyond) period - (Winter in the Southern Hemisphere) were not permitted to venture to the Northern Hemisphere to pass the flu along. 

In addition, the mask requirements and better personal hygiene (hand washing) is also credited with the drop in flu cases.  Few flu cases, fewer flu deaths.

Even if all "Covid-19 deaths" are being categorized as heart disease and dementia deaths, the numbers still don't add up.

[Puget]

I don't think they are going on hope

"A Biden transition official tells ABC News they have faith vaccine manufacturers can produce enough vaccines

Is "Faith" =/= "hope" in this case?

You are being extremely literal minded here-- it's an expression, which almost certainly actually means "we talked to the manufacturers and they assured us they anticipate no problems with maintaining a manufacturing schedule that yields enough second doses on time". I know it's going to take some readjustment to the idea that experts are making decisions in consultation with other experts again, but do you seriously think "faith" means they just prayed on it?

Yes, I think you are being too extreme-- it's not like supply chain is a completely novel concept no one has dealt with before, and people certainly are going to die if vaccine is hoarded in freezers instead of administered. Since we know the first dose provides considerable protection, the certainty of that seems worth the small risk of something unanticipated delaying second doses if the companies are very confident that that is an unlikely possibility.

[clean]

but do you seriously think "faith" means they just prayed on it?

Now who is " being extremely literal minded here--"


IF you have the second dose reserved when the first is delivered, then there is CERTAINTY that the second dose can be administered AS DESIGNED.

IF the new administration decides to release that second dose, then there is a probability (ie the introduction of 'hope/faith') that there will be some failure that will mean that the second dose IS UNAVAILABLE, for whatever reason/failure when the prescribed time arrives for the follow-up shot... the part of the shot that provides the rest of the immunity  (the part that ensures CERTAINTY)!

I prefer to deal, as much as I can, with Certainty - especially when related to health!

There are enough idiots and assholes who have declared that their personal freedom to infect others surpasses their need to wear a mask.  (and enough grocery stores/walmarts that, though they have stated a policy to require masks, wont enforce/follow it! to make it dangerous for everyone else.)