Coronavirus

[Stockmann]

"... I don't know what herd immunity is..."

Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Look, Ma! An honest politician!

Not my field of expertise, but my understanding is that you need at least about 70% vaccination rates for herd immunity, and since there isn't a pediatric vaccine yet, you'd need well over 70% of the adult population vaccinated to have herd immunity. In some parts of the world (much of Africa, for example) even 100% of the adult population might not be enough.

On a separate note, I think some of the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic are becoming clear. To the extent that there are any winners, East Asia would be the clear winner, esp. economically. Russia is also a winner, having shown they have R&D strengths that, say, France, South Korea, Japan or Canada do not. Africa, outside of Tanzania, which easily has had the world's worst response, is also a winner, having handled it remarkably well. Clear losers include the EU, which has managed to spectacularly botch every single aspect of its pandemic response, although within the EU I think Germany is stronger than before relative to the Club Med (so Germany looks like it's riding first class on the Titanic). Latin America is also generally a loser; the "leading" countries, Mexico and Brazil, have had some of the world's worst pandemic responses and have fully conformed to Latin American stereotype: Not much in strengths outside of exporting commodities, mired in dysfunctional politics incapable of responding effectively to pressing issues, and R&D isn't on the radar (Mexico and Brazil are in the same economic ballpark as Russia, so it's clearly not about money).  Oil exporters generally have been losers because of the collapse in oil prices, save to some extent the UAE, whose vaccination program has shown they have genuine logistical strenghts.

On a more personal note, my view of my hometown has changed significantly as a result of the pandemic - now it's hard not to see it as Covidiot Central.

Family member diagnosed 24 hours before long sought-after vaccine appointment; another was to get J&J later this week.

Sorry to hear that, I hope your relative makes a speedy recovery.

[Bbmaj7b5]

And our respite is over.  The state has had four virus deaths in the past day.

I notice that Texas has just had 29 new losses.  You can't say "herd immunity" when this sort of thing is still going on.

Clearly Abbott is saying dumb stuff about the coronavirus so that voters will forget his doing dumb stuff during the Texas Ice Storm.

[Caracal]

"... I don't know what herd immunity is..."

Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Look, Ma! An honest politician!

Not my field of expertise, but my understanding is that you need at least about 70% vaccination rates for herd immunity, and since there isn't a pediatric vaccine yet, you'd need well over 70% of the adult population vaccinated to have herd immunity. In some parts of the world (much of Africa, for example) even 100% of the adult population might not be enough.

On a separate note, I think some of the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic are becoming clear. To the extent that there are any winners, East Asia would be the clear winner, esp. economically. Russia is also a winner, having shown they have R&D strengths that, say, France, South Korea, Japan or Canada do not. Africa, outside of Tanzania, which easily has had the world's worst response, is also a winner, having handled it remarkably well. Clear losers include the EU, which has managed to spectacularly botch every single aspect of its pandemic response, although within the EU I think Germany is stronger than before relative to the Club Med (so Germany looks like it's riding first class on the Titanic). Latin America is also generally a loser; the "leading" countries, Mexico and Brazil, have had some of the world's worst pandemic responses and have fully conformed to Latin American stereotype: Not much in strengths outside of exporting commodities, mired in dysfunctional politics incapable of responding effectively to pressing issues, and R&D isn't on the radar (Mexico and Brazil are in the same economic ballpark as Russia, so it's clearly not about money).  Oil exporters generally have been losers because of the collapse in oil prices, save to some extent the UAE, whose vaccination program has shown they have genuine logistical strenghts.

On a more personal note, my view of my hometown has changed significantly as a result of the pandemic - now it's hard not to see it as Covidiot Central.

Family member diagnosed 24 hours before long sought-after vaccine appointment; another was to get J&J later this week.

Sorry to hear that, I hope your relative makes a speedy recovery.

Lower than that, perhaps, since you can add natural infection, but its probably not a clear number. When Israel got somewhere over 50 percent their numbers started going way down and have continued to plummet despite few remaining restrictions.

I think its worth keeping in mind how destructive polarization around this has been-obviously the misinformation and bad choices from people who believe none of this is real have been bad-but there's plenty of bad results from polarization to go around. I'm continually amazed by people who seem to have accepted it as an article of faith that restrictions will need to stay in place long into the future, who treat anyone trying to balance trade offs versus risks as a dangerous person putting everyone at danger, or who believe, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary, that children are super spreaders and there's no way reopening schools could be safe. There are a lot of people who aren't thinking very clearly at this point, it isn't just people in your home town.

[Bbmaj7b5]

"... I don't know what herd immunity is..."

Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Look, Ma! An honest politician!

Science, in general, befuddles him.

[Cheerful]

"... I don't know what herd immunity is..."
Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Look, Ma! An honest politician!

Not my field of expertise, but my understanding is that you need at least about 70% vaccination rates for herd immunity, and since there isn't a pediatric vaccine yet, you'd need well over 70% of the adult population vaccinated to have herd immunity. In some parts of the world (much of Africa, for example) even 100% of the adult population might not be enough.

On a separate note, I think some of the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic are becoming clear. To the extent that there are any winners, East Asia would be the clear winner, esp. economically. Russia is also a winner, having shown they have R&D strengths that, say, France, South Korea, Japan or Canada do not. Africa, outside of Tanzania, which easily has had the world's worst response, is also a winner, having handled it remarkably well. Clear losers include the EU, which has managed to spectacularly botch every single aspect of its pandemic response, although within the EU I think Germany is stronger than before relative to the Club Med (so Germany looks like it's riding first class on the Titanic). Latin America is also generally a loser; the "leading" countries, Mexico and Brazil, have had some of the world's worst pandemic responses and have fully conformed to Latin American stereotype: Not much in strengths outside of exporting commodities, mired in dysfunctional politics incapable of responding effectively to pressing issues, and R&D isn't on the radar (Mexico and Brazil are in the same economic ballpark as Russia, so it's clearly not about money).  Oil exporters generally have been losers because of the collapse in oil prices, save to some extent the UAE, whose vaccination program has shown they have genuine logistical strenghts.

On a more personal note, my view of my hometown has changed significantly as a result of the pandemic - now it's hard not to see it as Covidiot Central.

What about New Zealand and Australia?  Seemingly amazing at containing the virus.

[Puget]

The problem with Abbott's statement is not one with quibbling about the exact threshold for herd immunity, but rather that he seems to think it can be achieved in seniors based on the vaccination rate in seniors. He doesn't seem to understand it is a community population measure, and unless seniors aren't mixing with younger people at all you have to look at the vaccination rate across all ages.

In the flip side, I've seen equally dumb takes about how "the US" won't be able to reach herd immunity because 20-25% of US adults say they will never get vaccinated, as if the never-vaxers were equally distributed through the population, when we know they are heavily concentrated in red, rural areas. Herd immunity applies to whatever population is intermingling, not to the country as a whole. So yes, some areas definitely won't reach herd immunity (or will do so only through eventual natural immunity), but how much of a problem for the rest of the country that is depends on how much population mixing there is between those areas and places with good vaccine uptake. Indeed, transmission outside the US could be a bigger threat in some areas than transmission in a rural area of the US where few people travel outside their immediate region.

[Cheerful]

...as if the never-vaxers were equally distributed through the population, when we know they are heavily concentrated in red, rural areas.

The term "never-vaxers" doesn't capture probably significant numbers who are not "anti-vax" in general but, in the case of COVID vaccines, are hesitant and taking a "wait-and-see" approach.

According to numerous media reports, Detroit (neither red nor rural) has substantial vaccine hesitancy.

[Puget]

...as if the never-vaxers were equally distributed through the population, when we know they are heavily concentrated in red, rural areas.

The term "never-vaxers" doesn't capture probably significant numbers who are not "anti-vax" in general but, in the case of COVID vaccines, are hesitant and taking a "wait-and-see" approach.

According to numerous media reports, Detroit (neither red nor rural) has substantial vaccine hesitancy.

The "wait and see" numbers have been going steadily down (so people were apparently using this response accurately-- the waited, saw, and decided they wanted it), and are now only about 15% of adults depending on the poll you look at. That number has dropped fastest among Black respondents, so I think your impression (or the media reports) are rather out of date. The "nevers" have stalled out at around 20%, and are heavily white conservative evangelicals, and more men than women. If you are claiming that we will "never" get to herd immunity it is mostly that 20% you are talking about, but it isn't really 20% uniformly, it's something like 5% in highly educated blue metro areas and 40% in some red rural areas.

[spork]

...as if the never-vaxers were equally distributed through the population, when we know they are heavily concentrated in red, rural areas.

The term "never-vaxers" doesn't capture probably significant numbers who are not "anti-vax" in general but, in the case of COVID vaccines, are hesitant and taking a "wait-and-see" approach.

According to numerous media reports, Detroit (neither red nor rural) has substantial vaccine hesitancy.

The "wait and see" numbers have been going steadily down (so people were apparently using this response accurately-- the waited, saw, and decided they wanted it), and are now only about 15% of adults depending on the poll you look at. That number has dropped fastest among Black respondents, so I think your impression (or the media reports) are rather out of date. The "nevers" have stalled out at around 20%, and are heavily white conservative evangelicals, and more men than women. If you are claiming that we will "never" get to herd immunity it is mostly that 20% you are talking about, but it isn't really 20% uniformly, it's something like 5% in highly educated blue metro areas and 40% in some red rural areas.

I'm open to being criticized as totally wrong on this, but I think much of the "vaccine hesitancy" is actually 1) pre-existing lack of access to affordable/effective health care among socioeconomically marginalized groups, and 2) the implicit reporting bias produced by "journalistic objectivity" and the media's penchant for glorifying the terrible ("if it bleeds it leads").

[Cheerful]

Based on an informal skimming of discussions in the national and local mass media and social media in recent weeks, Covid vaccine hesitancy is a complex, nuanced thing in the U.S.  Emergency-use approval only rather than standard FDA approval, pioneering new vaccine methods, fear, trust, and public health messaging are all factors.

Informative article with predictions about lower vaccine demand:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/america-is-about-to-hit-a-vaccine-wall-as-demand-drops-with-or-without-johnson-johnson-162241805.html

[Stockmann]

Lower than that, perhaps, since you can add natural infection, but its probably not a clear number. When Israel got somewhere over 50 percent their numbers started going way down and have continued to plummet despite few remaining restrictions.

I agree, temporary inmmunity due to infection adds up and I wasn't considering that.

I think its worth keeping in mind how destructive polarization around this has been-obviously the misinformation and bad choices from people who believe none of this is real have been bad-but there's plenty of bad results from polarization to go around. I'm continually amazed by people who seem to have accepted it as an article of faith that restrictions will need to stay in place long into the future, who treat anyone trying to balance trade offs versus risks as a dangerous person putting everyone at danger, or who believe, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary, that children are super spreaders and there's no way reopening schools could be safe. There are a lot of people who aren't thinking very clearly at this point, it isn't just people in your home town.

Yep. The thing is, it's precisely complying with relatively mild precautions like wearing facemasks in public or contact-tracing (or vaccines) that makes it possible to lift harsher restrictions safely. Where people largely comply voluntarily (like in Japan), government diktat isn't needed and mild restrictions are all that's necessary to keep things under control. Where people largely refuse to comply, the trade-offs become awful, esp. once things are out of control. Where adults comply with things like facemasks, that makes things like keeping schools open safely possible, like in Singapore.  In my hometown, I know things got so bad that at the worst point the frequency of ambulance sirens actually fell near a major hopital - the hospitals were full, so the ambulances had nowhere to take people. But tell that to the many people, many of them old men (the demographic most likely to die) who went and continue to go out with chin diapers, or no facemask at all, all the people partying a la Masque of the Red Death, etc. I used to be proud of my hometown, but given the arrogance, petulance and selfishness on display, I no longer am.

What about New Zealand and Australia?  Seemingly amazing at containing the virus.

I think they too will reap, or are already reaping, the benefits of re-opening both early and safely.

[Caracal]

Lower than that, perhaps, since you can add natural infection, but its probably not a clear number. When Israel got somewhere over 50 percent their numbers started going way down and have continued to plummet despite few remaining restrictions.

I agree, temporary inmmunity due to infection adds up and I wasn't considering that.

I think its worth keeping in mind how destructive polarization around this has been-obviously the misinformation and bad choices from people who believe none of this is real have been bad-but there's plenty of bad results from polarization to go around. I'm continually amazed by people who seem to have accepted it as an article of faith that restrictions will need to stay in place long into the future, who treat anyone trying to balance trade offs versus risks as a dangerous person putting everyone at danger, or who believe, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary, that children are super spreaders and there's no way reopening schools could be safe. There are a lot of people who aren't thinking very clearly at this point, it isn't just people in your home town.

Yep. The thing is, it's precisely complying with relatively mild precautions like wearing facemasks in public or contact-tracing (or vaccines) that makes it possible to lift harsher restrictions safely. Where people largely comply voluntarily (like in Japan), government diktat isn't needed and mild restrictions are all that's necessary to keep things under control. Where people largely refuse to comply, the trade-offs become awful, esp. once things are out of control. Where adults comply with things like facemasks, that makes things like keeping schools open safely possible, like in Singapore.  In my hometown, I know things got so bad that at the worst point the frequency of ambulance sirens actually fell near a major hopital - the hospitals were full, so the ambulances had nowhere to take people. But tell that to the many people, many of them old men (the demographic most likely to die) who went and continue to go out with chin diapers, or no facemask at all, all the people partying a la Masque of the Red Death, etc. I used to be proud of my hometown, but given the arrogance, petulance and selfishness on display, I no longer am.

Yeah, I guess. However, I think its worth thinking of other attitudes as dangerous in more subtle ways. Freaking out about the dangers of outdoor spaces like beaches or parks, blaming spread of disease primarily on the people getting it and shaming of behavior rather than trying to figure out how to help people have all contributed to our failure to control this. Cities should have been putting up heat lamps in parks this winter. Last summer they should have been racing to put up misters and shade in warm areas. They didn't because you had useless scolds instead telling everyone to "stay home" as if that was useful advice 5 months into a pandemic that showed no signs of ending.

[Stockmann]

In principle, yes, parks and beaches can be pretty safe if certain simple rules are followed. In the case of my hometown, this kind of falls under "that's why we can't have nice things" - you're probably much safer going to the mall, at least outside peak times, because rules on facemasks are actually enforced and are probably less crowded than during the before times anyway, than going to the park, which apparently is going to be pretty crowded with lots of people not wearing facemasks or not wearing them correctly, and lots of them jogging or whatever and therefore panting hard. So yeah, I agree compromise, avoiding paranoia, etc are necessary, but don't underestimate covidiot ability to ruin things for everyone.
In my hometown, at least anecdotally, the direct and indirect (the place has been badly hit economically) effects of the pandemic are driving people away, to the point of there seemingly being a glut of properties to let.

[Caracal]

In principle, yes, parks and beaches can be pretty safe if certain simple rules are followed. In the case of my hometown, this kind of falls under "that's why we can't have nice things" - you're probably much safer going to the mall, at least outside peak times, because rules on facemasks are actually enforced and are probably less crowded than during the before times anyway, than going to the park, which apparently is going to be pretty crowded with lots of people not wearing facemasks or not wearing them correctly, and lots of them jogging or whatever and therefore panting hard. So yeah, I agree compromise, avoiding paranoia, etc are necessary, but don't underestimate covidiot ability to ruin things for everyone.
In my hometown, at least anecdotally, the direct and indirect (the place has been badly hit economically) effects of the pandemic are driving people away, to the point of there seemingly being a glut of properties to let.

Yeah, but thats the thing. It would be good if people in crowded outdoor public spaces were wearing masks, but all the evidence suggests that even if they aren't, those places are still much, much  safer than indoors. There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

[Stockmann]

It would be good if people in crowded outdoor public spaces were wearing masks, but all the evidence suggests that even if they aren't, those places are still much, much  safer than indoors.

Yeah, but it's probably much safer to ride the subway in Tokyo or Seoul than taking a stroll in the park in my hometown, even though riding the subway "ought" to be physically ideal conditions for Covid spread and a walk in the park ought to be much safer. The difference is down not to any physical quality but to differences in behavior, and it's not just people in my hometown not wearing facemasks at the park, but also the much higher likelihood that they're infected in the first place, which is in turn down to widespread idiotic behavior in my hometown (they're not wearing facemasks at indoor raves, either) and widespread sensible behavior in Tokyo and Seoul.

There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

I'm not sure, does that nomination party at a White House garden count?