Coronavirus

[Puget]

Check out this cool customized risk calculation tool: https://www.microcovid.org/

There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

I'm not sure, does that nomination party at a White House garden count?

No, it doesn't-- they also had spent time indoors beforehand (many unmasked) and that's where most/all the spread is believed to have occurred.

[Caracal]

Check out this cool customized risk calculation tool: https://www.microcovid.org/

There have been zero super spreader events tied to events in exclusively outdoor spaces.

I'm not sure, does that nomination party at a White House garden count?

No, it doesn't-- they also had spent time indoors beforehand (many unmasked) and that's where most/all the spread is believed to have occurred.

Yeah, and that's true of all the examples I know that have been cited as examples of outdoor super spreader events. They all involved a signifiant indoor component. If you have a backyard bbq, but lots of people go and hang out inside without masks, that isn't actually an outdoor event...

[science.expat]

Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

[Caracal]

Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

[jimbogumbo]

Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

People are at this festival for quite a long time. I think it's entirely believable many were in fact infected there.

[Caracal]

Outdoor transmission is less likely but non zero - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/more-than-1000-test-positive-to-covid19-at-kumbh-mela-india/100073802

Hmm, so first of all the article is a bit misleading. If 1000 people at the festival test positive, it doesn't mean they all were infected there. Actually given average incubation time, probably most of them were infected elsewhere. This is also another example of something that isn't an exclusively outdoor event. People get there by train and bus, presumably. Once they are there, it seems like they stay in various facilities, including very large  communal dorms and there are lots of other events, some of which might be indoor.

It's the same issue with the pictures of beaches that newspapers are obsessed with publishing alongside COVID headlines. If you want to have a picture accurately describing the dangers of spread, you should show a bar, club or house party with spring breakers gathered there. The actual beach is pretty low risk.

That isn't to say there isn't probably significant elevated risk at very crowded outdoor events, but it still should be kept in perspective. The problem is that the alternative to people going to a somewhat crowded beach or park isn't everyone staying at their house. The alternative is usually people gathering inside.

People are at this festival for quite a long time. I think it's entirely believable many were in fact infected there.

Sure, just saying that the presentation is a bit misleading. The bigger point is that this isn't just an outdoor event and there's no reason to think that most of this spread is taking place outdoors.

[apl68]

On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.

[pgher]

On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.

We started that with Easter. We are using the pre-filled kits (a mini chalice with juice and a nearly-edible wafer). That way we're not passing anything around.

[hmaria1609]

On Sunday our church had the Lord's Supper (aka Communion) for the first time since before the shutdown.  It was so good to finally be able to celebrate this again.

That's good news!

[Langue_doc]

On the one hand, reaching herd immunity seems to be unlikely https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html, but on the other hand, New York is rushing to reopen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/nyregion/nyc-reopening.html

Business as usual, pandemic or not.

[Caracal]

On the one hand, reaching herd immunity seems to be unlikely https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html, but on the other hand, New York is rushing to reopen https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/nyregion/nyc-reopening.html

Business as usual, pandemic or not.

Herd immunity isn't the right metric for deciding when and how much to reopen. The concept really applies to a situation in which an infectious disease is introduced. If the disease is already circulating widely you'll continue to have infections for quite a while even if you reached the level required for herd immunity. 

The article made the point that it isn't clear if herd immunity is likely, but that isn't actually a disaster. Israel has fully vaccinated about 55 percent of its population, fully reopened and cases have continued to decline. That doesn't actually tell us whether they have herd immunity, and they probably don't, but vaccination has dramatically cut transmission. That's what you want to see happen.

Of course, that doesn't mean its a good idea to rush to reopen everything. Cases have gone way down in NY, but they are still pretty high. The potential danger is that by rushing to reopen dangerous places too soon, you could end up slowing the decline in cases. in the long run that isn't going to be good for businesses either. I'd love to go to a bar, but I'm not going to do it, even though I'm vaccinated, until cases are a lot lower than they are now.

[evil_physics_witchcraft]

Not sure if this is really a good idea...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/florida-governor-desantis-suspends-all-remaining-covid-restrictions.html

[apl68]

Looks like we will be reopening our library's Community Room event space beginning next month.  We've worked out a plan with a representative of the state Department of Health.  The space will be limited to events with no more than 20 attendees (In a room with a capacity of about 50), with sanitizer and masks provided by the library and all rules about social distancing, etc. for indoor events in place. 

Because the meetings will mostly take place outside normal library hours, we will not have staff on hand to police compliance with the guidelines.  What we will do is provide appropriate signage, incorporate a sheet on the guidelines in the user agreement that room users have to sign, and provide verbal instructions on the guidelines when they do their pre-event walk-throughs.  So they won't be able to say they didn't know better.  And we will have security video evidence of the room if people fail to comply with the guidelines.

This has been weighing on my mind for quite some time.  We've had a LOT of pressure from the public to reopen that room for public use.  The front desk staff have been in the awkward position of being unable to answer questions about when, exactly that will happen.  Now we can give some answers.  The public won't like them, but at least we have actual answers and a plan.

[the_geneticist]

My campus is hoping/planning a return to mostly in-person instruction in the Fall. 
But. 
They haven't put BUILDING or ROOM locations for any classes.
There is no plan for what to do for students/staff/faculty who won't/can't be vaccinated (yes, they can opt out).
The upper admin folks are considering allowing students to individually request remote instruction.  (can I just say NO?)
The stairways are still labeled as "up only" or "down only" even though there is no way that students will be able to get to their classes on time considering the random layout of many of our buildings.
The restrooms are supposed to be "1 user only" (Have they ever seen the line for the ladies restroom near my office?  It's 10+ even when you can use all the stalls)
The drinking fountains are covered up even though we know COVID is transmitted by air & not touching surfaces.

Ah well, Fall quarter is a long way off.  But it's going to be a bumpy transition.

[Parasaurolophus]

We've been advised that classrooms will have no occupancy restrictions.

This doesn't square with the revised guidance that came down from Health Canada this morning.