Coronavirus

[Hegemony]

I don't know what Spork intended to say, but I can certainly say that the costs that will be socialized are not primarily monetary costs, but the overall costs of people who don't take public health measures — costs in death, isolation, and difficulty — will be borne by all of us. Private decisions, public costs.

[dismalist]

I don't know what Spork intended to say, but I can certainly say that the costs that will be socialized are not primarily monetary costs, but the overall costs of people who don't take public health measures — costs in death, isolation, and difficulty — will be borne by all of us. Private decisions, public costs.

I think that's true of the past, but no longer. [And there have been lots of private costs imposed by inept governments so far.] The situation without and with a vaccine is fundamentally different. My point about low public costs applies to the situation now, not the one a year and a quarter ago.

As I said, we see the same light. For one it's the light at the end of the tunnel; for another it's the headlamp of the oncoming train. :-)

[spork]

I don't know what Spork intended to say, but I can certainly say that the costs that will be socialized are not primarily monetary costs, but the overall costs of people who don't take public health measures — costs in death, isolation, and difficulty — will be borne by all of us. Private decisions, public costs.

That's what I meant, though I tend to think in terms of dollars and cents. E.g., person decides not to get vaccinated gets hospitalized, and the cost of treatment is borne by others. Or an immune-compromised kidney transplant recipient gets infected by someone who decided not to get vaccinated. We pay for others' stupidity. At least in the short run. In the long run, as someone more famous than I once said, we are all dead.

[dismalist]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

[Stockmann]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

On the other hand, the long term side-effects of Covid are pretty unknown. We don't know what it does to your long-term risk of lung cancer, dementia, etc.

[dismalist]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

On the other hand, the long term side-effects of Covid are pretty unknown. We don't know what it does to your long-term risk of lung cancer, dementia, etc.

People tend to overestimate the probability of small risks if they have no information about them. That's normal.

[hmaria1609]

Mayor Muriel Bowser announced the public health emergency will end for the District tomorrow:
https://wtop.com/dc/2021/07/dcs-public-health-emergency-status-to-end-sunday/
Posted on WTOP online (7/24/21)

[Wulfenia]

Regarding China's two main vaccines, Sinvac and Sinopharm, their efficacy is noticeably lower than that for other vaccines. And, per an acquaintance who works for an international public health agency, China provides a country with one or two million free vaccine doses, then charges prices for additional doses that are higher than the market prices for the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines. The problem these countries face is not being able to access supplies of the latter, while China is quite happy to export what its pharmaceutical factories are producing.

Yes, the Chinese vaccines are of low efficacy. But even those vaccines are more than, say, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, etc managed to develop. Yes, many of them (and others) have a problem with access to Moderna and Pfizer, but part of the problem is their own failure to develop vaccines, and they are all wealthier and less isolated than Cuba. Switzerland is a particularly notable failure, as it was badly affected by Covid, boasts a well-regarded R&D sector and has a huge pharmaceutical sector.
Also Israel (probably the only democracy to have become stronger due to the pandemic), despite not developing vaccines, managed to set up a world-beating vaccination program, which other wealthy, small countries like Norway, Sweden or Qatar failed to do.

This is not a fair assessment. In China, it was an absolute priority to have a national vaccine. In France, it made no sense to continue a phase-3-trial of a vaccine that was clearly much inferior to the German vaccine because ressources are better used for producing the German vaccine in licence.

I agree that Cuba is very successful. They have a very long history of prioritizing health care.

[Caracal]

Yes, the Chinese vaccines are of low efficacy.

It appears that Sinopharm, while not nearly as good at preventing infection, is still quite good at preventing severe disease and death. Part of the problem with all the discussion about which vaccines are better is that it ends up obscuring that all the vaccines are very good at preventing the worst outcomes and that seems to hold true with all the variants.

[quasihumanist]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

For losing your job, one in a thousand is a small risk.

For dying, one in a thousand is not a small risk.

[dismalist]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

For losing your job, one in a thousand is a small risk.

For dying, one in a thousand is not a small risk.

I feel that way, too, but other people feel differently.

[Caracal]

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

For losing your job, one in a thousand is a small risk.

For dying, one in a thousand is not a small risk.

I feel that way, too, but other people feel differently.

Two points.
1. It is important to remember that not getting vaccinated imposes lots of costs on everyone else. You are far more likely to spread COVID if you aren't vaccinated. The people most at risk are other unvaccinated people, but vaccinated people with conditions which may suppress their immune system also can be vulnerable.

2. Long Covid is definitely real, but I think some of the studies and reporting on it are misleading and alarmist. Still, even putting that aside, for a lot of people, getting COVID is a pretty unpleasant experience, especially if they aren't vaccinated. The chances of having to be hospitalized for a younger person are a lot higher than the chances of dying. Even if there are no long term consequences, that's not really something I want to experience if I can help it. Even for mild cases, people are often quite sick.

[Stockmann]

Yes, the Chinese vaccines are of low efficacy. But even those vaccines are more than, say, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, etc managed to develop. Yes, many of them (and others) have a problem with access to Moderna and Pfizer, but part of the problem is their own failure to develop vaccines, and they are all wealthier and less isolated than Cuba. Switzerland is a particularly notable failure, as it was badly affected by Covid, boasts a well-regarded R&D sector and has a huge pharmaceutical sector.
Also Israel (probably the only democracy to have become stronger due to the pandemic), despite not developing vaccines, managed to set up a world-beating vaccination program, which other wealthy, small countries like Norway, Sweden or Qatar failed to do.

This is not a fair assessment. In China, it was an absolute priority to have a national vaccine. In France, it made no sense to continue a phase-3-trial of a vaccine that was clearly much inferior to the German vaccine because ressources are better used for producing the German vaccine in licence.

I agree that Cuba is very successful. They have a very long history of prioritizing health care.

The problem with the French approach (and indeed, that of the EU minus Germany) is that it was a failure - vaccination got off to a notoriously slow start, vastly behind the UK or even Germany, which was far slower than the UK. Perhaps with better procurement and logistics, and less bureaucracy, it could've had a highly successful program, without its own vaccines. But even a mediocre vaccine might've helped if it had been rolled out early and quickly, even if boosters of another vaccine had to be given eventually. It didn't help how vaccination quickly got politicized, with Macron blatantly doing a misinformation campaign against Astra Zeneca, and the EU not approving Sputnik V in a blatantly political approach, given they've approved others with lower effectiveness. Sure, the EU minus approach to vaccination was more successful than the Australian approach, but at least Australia had succeeded in containing Covid. The EU minus is pretty unique among developed places (and behind a number of middle income and developing countries) in having botched Covid containment, and Covid immunization, and vaccine development.
Cuba and China both faced obvious geopolitical problems in procuring vaccines, so national pride, etc aside it made sense to develop their own vaccines. In China's case, there was sheer population size to consider. The Cubans made no attempt to obtain vaccines from abroad, out of arrogance and/or because they assumed (no doubt accurately in the case of Western vaccines) they wouldn't get them anyway, but the claimed effectiveness of their Abdala vaccine is (again, if confirmed) comparable to Pfizer, Moderna and Sputnik. France faced no such concerns but, again, the problem is not so much their choice of approach but the fact it was a failure (unlike Israel and the UAE, which also didn't develop their own vaccines). Coupled with the lack of "solidarity" from Brussels towards Italy and Spain when they were the pandemic's epicenters, it doesn't exactly bode well for the EU.

Somebody said: "For a healthy non-elderly adult, the mortality rate for Covid if infected is somewhere around one in a thousand. So not getting vaccinated and not taking any precautions has a very low probability of killing you and a pretty low probability of causing you any serious costs."

So, low societal costs form here on in.

For losing your job, one in a thousand is a small risk.

For dying, one in a thousand is not a small risk.

I feel that way, too, but other people feel differently.

Two points.
1. It is important to remember that not getting vaccinated imposes lots of costs on everyone else. You are far more likely to spread COVID if you aren't vaccinated. The people most at risk are other unvaccinated people, but vaccinated people with conditions which may suppress their immune system also can be vulnerable.

2. Long Covid is definitely real, but I think some of the studies and reporting on it are misleading and alarmist. Still, even putting that aside, for a lot of people, getting COVID is a pretty unpleasant experience, especially if they aren't vaccinated. The chances of having to be hospitalized for a younger person are a lot higher than the chances of dying. Even if there are no long term consequences, that's not really something I want to experience if I can help it. Even for mild cases, people are often quite sick.

In addition, in the US, the risk of financial ruin due to Covid medical expenses is much more than 1 in 1000. The risk of lung scarring (with what effect on your long-term risk of pneumonia, lung cancer, etc?) is much more than 1 in 1000. The risk of neurological side effects of uncertain duration and of uncertain long-term consequences (dementia risk?) such as losing your sense of smell, is also higher.
Personally, I don't and never much worried about dying of Covid - I'm young enough, and have no major, known risk factor other than being male. I did worry about my parents (incl. the risk of them catching it from me), and I did worry about things like being too sick to work or look after my child, medical expenses, long term health consequences, etc.

[Caracal]

The risk of neurological side effects of uncertain duration and of uncertain long-term consequences (dementia risk?) such as losing your sense of smell, is also higher.

The studies that got lots of attention on this weren't very good. The big problem with lots of long covid studies is that they don't have a control group, so you can end up with a lot of cofounding issues and response bias problems. I've seen several studies that claim "neurological and psychological problems were higher among people who got covid but lump together everything and fail to consider that it would make sense that getting covid in a pandemic might result in increased anxiety for all the normal reasons.

[dismalist]

And not

getting covid in a pandemic might also result in increased anxiety for all the normal reasons

, too. :-)