Preparing for Coronavirus?

[spork]

My supermarket has regular farm milk but no organic milk. I think I still saw some organic milk in my health store. I am surprised that organic milk is hard to get though. The cows must still be producing milk. I saw something about farmers just destroying large quantities of milk, but didn't follow it up.

Because many of the commercial customers who buy in bulk -- like restaurants and restaurant suppliers -- have shut down.

Another example of the fragility of hyper-efficient complex systems (borrowing from Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld and Taleb).

[pigou]

It looks to me like the hyper-efficient complex system is holding up really well. It wouldn't make sense to have thousands of ICU beds year-round for a once in a century pandemic, when we seem to be able to bring up capacity rather quickly, for example. Yes, everyone is overtaxed, but that's not inherently a problem in a crisis: we're not expecting this to go on for months. Temporarily having a low stock of toilet paper or having to buy conventional instead of organic milk doesn't seem like a huge burden in the middle of a global pandemic.

[clean]

My supermarket has regular farm milk but no organic milk. I think I still saw some organic milk in my health store. I am surprised that organic milk is hard to get though. The cows must still be producing milk. I saw something about farmers just destroying large quantities of milk, but didn't follow it up.

Because many of the commercial customers who buy in bulk -- like restaurants and restaurant suppliers -- have shut down.

Another example of the fragility of hyper-efficient complex systems (borrowing from Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld and Taleb).

Don't forget - Schools are closed!  No milk for the youngins! 

[downer]

we're not expecting this to go on for months.

Why not? Do you think there will be enough testing of people in 2 months so that people can be declared safe, or to be carrying COVID-19 antibodies, so they are allowed out? Seems very unlikely, and testing is far from 100% accurate. As soon as quarantine is lifted, more people will start dying.

There's also the fact that pandemics typically come in waves, and we have just experienced the first wave.

Some people think that there will be a good vaccine available this year, but that seems wildly optimistic.

So I'm expecting this to last and last. The more quarantining we do, the longer it will last.

[spork]

It looks to me like the hyper-efficient complex system is holding up really well. It wouldn't make sense to have thousands of ICU beds year-round for a once in a century pandemic, when we seem to be able to bring up capacity rather quickly, for example. Yes, everyone is overtaxed, but that's not inherently a problem in a crisis: we're not expecting this to go on for months. Temporarily having a low stock of toilet paper or having to buy conventional instead of organic milk doesn't seem like a huge burden in the middle of a global pandemic.

I would agree with you if the food system in the USA wasn't based on taxpayer subsidies and externalities like CO2 production and water contamination.

Meanwhile, let's plow that food under! https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html

[sprout]

They even have shelf-stable cow milk, which I prefer to soy milk (although I find the flavor inferior to refrigerated milk), but it was sold out or ridiculously priced.  Apparently at $10 a quart, I go vegan.

The shelf-stable cow milk is the packaging, not that they do anything special to the milk. Overseas most milk is sold that way. Cold supply chains to keep milk fresh are really expensive to maintain.

Actually I believe that's incorrect. It used to be called UHT (Ultra High Temperature) milk. It had a funny taste. When I had milk in France, same milk, same funny taste.

Any chemists or biologists able to enlighten?

It's a different type of pasteurization - the Ultra High Temperature pasteurization that marshwiggle mentioned.  Higher temperature, shorter time period.  UHT kills more bacteria than the pasteurization we use for milk in the US, so the milk is shelf-stable until opened.

[marshwiggle]

They even have shelf-stable cow milk, which I prefer to soy milk (although I find the flavor inferior to refrigerated milk), but it was sold out or ridiculously priced.  Apparently at $10 a quart, I go vegan.

The shelf-stable cow milk is the packaging, not that they do anything special to the milk. Overseas most milk is sold that way. Cold supply chains to keep milk fresh are really expensive to maintain.

Actually I believe that's incorrect. It used to be called UHT (Ultra High Temperature) milk. It had a funny taste. When I had milk in France, same milk, same funny taste.

Any chemists or biologists able to enlighten?

It's a different type of pasteurization - the Ultra High Temperature pasteurization that marshwiggle mentioned.  Higher temperature, shorter time period.  UHT kills more bacteria than the pasteurization we use for milk in the US, so the milk is shelf-stable until opened.

Thanks for the clarification. Why does that make it taste different? Does the higher temperature allow some different chemical reactions?

[alto_stratus]

I found something a food scientist posted about UHT and the milk flavor:
"The UHT process slightly cooks the milk solids, giving it a slightly cooked flavor that you are calling 'artificial.' The high temp process allows some milk proteins to denature and unfold, exposing normally buried sulfhydryl groups to the outer surface, and give some tasters 'slight hints of sulfur notes' upon tasting. It also give the milk a slightly tan or off-white color due to the browned milk solids."


Looks like it's similar with soymilk and nut milks - whether it requires refrigeration depends on how it's processed and packaged: "How the soy milk was processed affects its shelf life too. Shelf stable soy milk will keep much longer at room temperature. Sealed soy milk doesn't require refrigeration at all. On the other hand, chilled soy milk or soy milk that's been sold refrigerated has to be kept chilled to extend its shelf life."

"Refrigerated almond milk needs to sit in the fridge at all times. If you're not sure if the nut milk you bought is shelf-stable or not, think about where it was in the store. If it was in the refrigerated section, it definitely requires storing at low temperatures. As usual, make sure that it's always sealed when not in use."

(from canitgobad.net)

[mythbuster]

Sprout and Alto_strauss have it right. There are many sets of conditions that achieve pasteurization. UHT is the highest temp and therefore kills the most bacteria. But, it also denatures the proteins the most, which can alter flavor. We use different temperature conditions on milk for drinking than milk for ice cream because we are concerned about different bacterial contaminants.
   It's also why there is always an argument about raw milk products and especially raw milk cheeses. Raw milk is not pasteurized at all. Which allows the natural milk Flora to contribute to the cheese flavor. The USDA/ FDA does not allow raw milk cheeses, but they are legal in Europe.

[Caracal]

we're not expecting this to go on for months.

Why not? Do you think there will be enough testing of people in 2 months so that people can be declared safe, or to be carrying COVID-19 antibodies, so they are allowed out? Seems very unlikely, and testing is far from 100% accurate. As soon as quarantine is lifted, more people will start dying.

There's also the fact that pandemics typically come in waves, and we have just experienced the first wave.

Some people think that there will be a good vaccine available this year, but that seems wildly optimistic.

So I'm expecting this to last and last. The more quarantining we do, the longer it will last.

With the caveat, that I have no idea what will actually happen, the idea is that if current measures could get cases way down, then it becomes possible to put more resources into testing and contact tracing. As long as you have a ton of really sick people in hospitals and PPE supplies and resources are short, it doesn't make sense to even be trying to test everyone with mild symptoms. You also might have to have shutdowns again if cases started rising, but the hope would be that with good testing and containment, you wouldn't have to shut everything everywhere down. I don't think we should expect things to go back to "normal" but it seems like it is certainly possible for have gradual and limited reopening without having uncontained spread.

[pigou]

we're not expecting this to go on for months.

Why not? Do you think there will be enough testing of people in 2 months so that people can be declared safe, or to be carrying COVID-19 antibodies, so they are allowed out? Seems very unlikely, and testing is far from 100% accurate. As soon as quarantine is lifted, more people will start dying.

An ambiguous use of "this:" I was referring to the shortages of ICU beds and toilet paper. It wouldn't make sense to maintain year-round ICU capacity for a once in a century pandemic. Rather, all levels of government need to have plans for how to provide additional capacity quickly in an emergency. If that means setting up tents in central park or beds in convention centers, that's working as intended and not a policy failure.

I do suspect that we'll see an easing of restrictions no later than mid-May, and earlier in parts of Europe. Particularly the re-opening of non-essential businesses. As long as people adhere to social distancing, having a flower shop open next to the grocery store isn't actually a threat to public health. Restaurants could re-open with stricter capacity limits and distancing. Same for dry cleaners and hair salons (maybe with guidance to wear masks).

That'll lead to more infections than a world in which we don't do any of these things. But it'll also greatly reduce the harm to people's livelihoods and mental health. And it may not lead to so many additional infections as to overwhelm the health care system, which is really the primary concern.

[downer]

So far there have been reports of some places in China lifting some restrictions on travel, but it's hard to know how much to trust reports from there.

So far it seems that nowhere in the West has a clear plan for how to lift restrictions.

This discussion in the NYT magazine was useful.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html
Zeke Emmanuel is not optimistic about any restrictions being lifted even by mid-June. Peter Singer talks about restrictions lasting a year to 18 months.

I have seen several reports of people who have had the virus getting reinfected -- it seems possible that some people who recover do not develop or retain antibodies. (Though that seems to go against the conventional knowledge of what happens with viruses.)

The surest thing is our uncertainty. We have very little idea how to get out of this situation.

[Caracal]

I have seen several reports of people who have had the virus getting reinfected -- it seems possible that some people who recover do not develop or retain antibodies. (Though that seems to go against the conventional knowledge of what happens with viruses.)

Important clarification. There is absolutely zero evidence of "reinfection." There have been some people who have at one point tested negative for the virus and then at a later point tested positive. Those people haven't shown renewed symptoms and there haven't been any reports of them passing the virus to anyone else. It might be helpful if someone with enough background in virus detection could weigh in about the mechanics of this, but the virology and public health people I follow on Twitter seem to all think that the likely explanation for this is the testing.

I think this is the kind of thing that happens when non-experts like us start following things in a field very closely. When I think about the kind of mistakes I see made in public discussions of my own field, it often involves a lack of broader context in which to understand something. My favorite example of this years ago was a book written by a psychologist who argued that Abraham Lincoln was gay. Why? Well, he slept in the same bed with a friend for several years and then later wrote that friend affectionate letters. The problem is that it was quite common for young, unmarried men without a lot of means to share a bed in the 19th century. Beds were expensive and people were used to crowded accommodations. The letters do seem rather affectionate by contemporary standards, but 19th century personal letters between men were often pretty affectionate. Could Lincoln have slept with men? Of course, he could have. You can't prove a negative and I'm sure plenty of people did sleep with men, there's just no particular reason to think Lincoln did or didn't.

I think this is  the same thing in terms of the need for larger context. If you study viruses and immune response you know that viruses behave in certain ways and our immune systems do certain things to respond. Is it possible that somehow this particular virus is totally different? Of course, anything's possible. But, the people who know what they are talking about seem to think that it is extremely likely this is just about the sensitivity of the test, not people getting reinfected.

[downer]

The Harvard epidemiologist I follow on twitter posted this, commenting it was very worrisome.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
It is a preliminary report though, so no need to panic.

[Caracal]

The Harvard epidemiologist I follow on twitter posted this, commenting it was very worrisome.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
It is a preliminary report though, so no need to panic.

Was it Eric Feigl-Ding? He's not an infectious disease epidemiologist. My very strong impression is that he is somebody who has really latched on to this to get attention. He's posted a number of things that have been widely debunked. This seems like no exception

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1248043917939036162