Preparing for Coronavirus?

[wwwdotcom]

Wiping down surfaces may not be the primary concern since this study published last week suggests that the virus can stay in the air for minutes after someone simply talks.  How can we possibly ask a room of 50 students to not say a word?

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117?mod=article_inline

[spork]

I don't feel comfortable doing it because I don't think that any of the proposed "safety measures" will be used properly if at all (cleaning all surfaces, having hand-sanitizer available, etc.).  Are we really expecting that the large teaching spaces can be cleaned EVERY HOUR with only 10 minutes between classes?  We can't even get the soap dispensers and paper towels kept full in the high-use bathrooms.  I highly doubt that campus will pay to have a dedicated cleaning team wiping down the door handles and scrubbing the classrooms.

Yes to all of this and so many more problems.  Will we be able to hand out papers to students in the classroom?  If a student appears sick will we have to tell them to leave the room and  report them immediately?  Will we encourage a snitch culture among the students?   If someone needs to take 3 weeks off to recover do we tell them to drop out or just let them make up all of their work?

I really wish I could be just furloughed for the next year.

My cynical view: many institutions will follow the letter of the law rather than the spirit, because it gives them cover when things go south, which they almost certainly will. I posted this in another thread on March 8:

I think the panic response will kick in at some universities in the second week of classes after spring break. Infected but asymptomatic students will have returned to campus and since the serial interval between Covid-19 cases is estimated at 4-5 days, signs that contagion has spread will appear in week 2. Guess what? 99.99% of the time this will actually be from the usual germs students return to campus with -- mild respiratory infections, 24-48 hour GI tract infections, etc. But as soon as a few students display symptoms like fever, cough, etc., parents are going to yank Zachary and Madison back home. With class attendance steadily dropping, administrators will close the campus "out of an abundance of caution."

Other than a few places like U. of South Carolina, which is starting classes early in August, eliminating a four-day October weekend, and ending the semester at Thanksgiving, most schools will muddle along hoping for the best until active, symptomatic infections start showing up on campus. Then campuses will close again. Rinse and repeat.

Supposedly we have been directed by state government to incorporate the concept of "quarantine in place" into our fall plan, meaning that certain dorms will be designated as quarantine sites for the infected. Yeah, that's going to work really well.

[Caracal]

Other than a few places like U. of South Carolina, which is starting classes early in August, eliminating a four-day October weekend, and ending the semester at Thanksgiving, most schools will muddle along hoping for the best until active, symptomatic infections start showing up on campus. Then campuses will close again. Rinse and repeat.

Look, the question is really whether it is possible to keep campuses from being places that contribute substantially to outbreaks. It would be extremely foolish for any school to open up and then shut down just because they had a few cases on campus. There will be cases in the community, so there will be cases on campuses. The question is whether schools can find ways to limit the spread of those cases and make campuses not particularly dangerous places.

If not, they shouldn't open, but I think we all need to learn to think in less absolute terms about risks and value.

[Penna]

I don't feel comfortable doing it because I don't think that any of the proposed "safety measures" will be used properly if at all (cleaning all surfaces, having hand-sanitizer available, etc.).

^Yes, this is pretty much where I am.  And if there's not going to be a campus-wide mask requirement, that's only going to add to my concerns.

[marshwiggle]

Look, the question is really whether it is possible to keep campuses from being places that contribute substantially to outbreaks. It would be extremely foolish for any school to open up and then shut down just because they had a few cases on campus. There will be cases in the community, so there will be cases on campuses. The question is whether schools can find ways to limit the spread of those cases and make campuses not particularly dangerous places.

If not, they shouldn't open, but I think we all need to learn to think in less absolute terms about risks and value.

But if people are already suing over "losses" due to courses going online, how much more explosive could it get if an outbreak happened on a campus? And if a student died because of the outbreak??? There are serious liability possibilities here.

[dismalist]

Here is a surprisingly detailed description of what is known about the transmission of the virus, by an epidemiologist at Dartmouth. It addresses the kinds of worries raised in this thread. Note the title: The risks. Know them. Avoid them.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is extraordinarily helpful for one's own desired behavioral changes, and perhaps, chimerically, to educate some administrators.

[apl68]

How can we possibly ask a room of 50 students to not say a word?

Tell the class that it's time for an in-class discussion.  Should do the trick.

[Larimar]

How can we possibly ask a room of 50 students to not say a word?

Tell the class that it's time for an in-class discussion.  Should do the trick.

Good one. In my classes it would probably work.


Larimar

[polly_mer]

Here is a surprisingly detailed description of what is known about the transmission of the virus, by an epidemiologist at Dartmouth. It addresses the kinds of worries raised in this thread. Note the title: The risks. Know them. Avoid them.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is extraordinarily helpful for one's own desired behavioral changes, and perhaps, chimerically, to educate some administrators.

I thought of this article as well when I saw Caracal's assertion "we all need to learn to think in less absolute terms about risks and value."

I'd be more confident that people could do nuance if I hadn't spent so much time trying to convince people to do the actual research on what assumptions went into the easy math equations that are circulating in various places for various purposes.

I remember one discussion on the old CHE fora on probability that included an assertion like: by returning the defective item, he is keeping his kids as safe as possible.  This assertion appeared right after we had done the math on how driving in the car for a few miles to make the return was more risky than just using the defective item, based on the information we had on the relative risks.

Feelings tend to win over data, especially for people who seldom really use data for anything.  Doing the calculations for math answers is not at all the same as being able to evaluate the science that set up the equations and the entered numbers.  Doing the math is also not the same as having some sort of official criteria that use terms like "acceptable casualties" on what the risk/benefit trade-off is.

[marshwiggle]

I remember one discussion on the old CHE fora on probability that included an assertion like: by returning the defective item, he is keeping his kids as safe as possible.  This assertion appeared right after we had done the math on how driving in the car for a few miles to make the return was more risky than just using the defective item, based on the information we had on the relative risks.

I don't think I've heard of such a thing, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's a cognitive bias to weigh risk according to our ability to mitigate it, rather than its probability. So, in the example above, the risk of car travel is basically unavoidable, and something we encounter daily, but the risk of the "defective product" is very specific, and can be mitigated by replacing the product. So even if the latter is only 1/10 as likely, I'd bet most people would feel vastly safer exchanging the product, even though the trip to the store increased their risk by a mathematically greater amount.

This applies in the covid situation by all of the people who are anxious to reopen as much as possible even though they are  concerned about the risk. Wearing masks, distancing, etc. are concrete* whereas considering things like in the article about the length of time in a room with people are more abstract.

*And more or less binary; i.e. it's easy to verify who is doing them.

[Caracal]

Here is a surprisingly detailed description of what is known about the transmission of the virus, by an epidemiologist at Dartmouth. It addresses the kinds of worries raised in this thread. Note the title: The risks. Know them. Avoid them.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

This is extraordinarily helpful for one's own desired behavioral changes, and perhaps, chimerically, to educate some administrators.

I thought of this article as well when I saw Caracal's assertion "we all need to learn to think in less absolute terms about risks and value."

I'd be more confident that people could do nuance if I hadn't spent so much time trying to convince people to do the actual research on what assumptions went into the easy math equations that are circulating in various places for various purposes.

People tend to do nuance better than experts often think they do, at least if you give them the tools to do it. On the other side, not trusting people to make distinctions tends to backfire. People are not going to be staying at home till there is a vaccine, so you really want to communicate what has less risk and what has more. To be clear, I'm not sure if in person classes are a good idea unless cases end up being way down by the fall, which doesn't seem all that likely.

[polly_mer]

Ah, Caracal, you haven't taught statistics or tried to convince enough bureaucrats of the actual risks/benefits based on actual knowledge instead of what they are sure is true to support the decisions they've already made.

Highly educated people are often the worst in this respect because they refuse to believe that what they know just ain't so.

I can't give sufficient tools to individuals who have refused to invest their energies into the necessary math, science, and related areas to understand the nuances.

People will die because they continue to not care about the nuances until it's too late.

[Bonnie]

We can't even get the soap dispensers and paper towels kept full in the high-use bathrooms.

Amen. I hate being assigned a room in one of our main classroom buildings for an afternoon class. Meets for 2.5 hours and there is NEVER toilet paper/soap/paper towel in bathroom at break.

[nebo113]

I have not seen (and may have overlooked) any discussion on this thread about students with disabilities and how their safety will be ensured, while their academic experience will not be impaired.  The note about the mask with a visual window was intriguing, but many students with a hearing impairment are accompanied by a signer and other students may have an assigned scribe.  How are colleges considering  students with disabilities?

[Cheerful]

How are colleges considering  students with disabilities?

How many are there and how much money do they have to spend on tuition and other college fees?  That will shape whether IDEA and ADA are implemented robustly or meekly by colleges.