Cancelled classes due to coronavirus

[Juvenal]

Here's a rather thorough presentation and analysis of the epidemiology:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The suggestion of "what to do" is "social distancing."  That's what seems to have stopped it in China.  Main advice, stay home as much as you can until the R<1  How likely is the U.S. to do this, I wonder...

[the_geneticist]

We're on spring break this week, but starting Monday will going completely online for the next month, perhaps longer. I'm worried about labs, about what my students will be missing as far as instruction and meeting course outcomes, and am curious how some of my colleagues (who still use old, yellowed, overhead sheets and never log in to the CMS) will cope. I can understand why it's being done, but at my institution, is has not been handled well. The notices have been a cross between rah rah rah we're all in this together, we can do it! and you MUST put everything online and bend over backward, accept all late work without penalty, and reinvent the wheel at the same time. I'm not sure our infrastructure can handle it. I'm in the process of setting up our CMS for video lectures and trying to plan for labs. In the message I'm composing to send out to my students I'm telling them that remote classes do not equal extended spring break. We'll see how it goes.

We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term.  I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class.  These are interesting times.

[eigen]

Caracal,

The reaction will get worse, it always does. However, though the number of US cases has been dramatically increasing, probably due in part to iincreased testing, the number of deaths has been only increasing by a couple of people per week, mostly part of that initial Washington outbreak.

If it's any consolation, Disney World is crazy busy.

The death rate also lags significantly behind infection in this. If you look at the recent articles coming out in medical journals, death is usually around 3 weeks after the beginning of the illness in that individual.

So that means 3 weeks for cases to spread before you start seeing people die. This is what has happened in Italy recently, for instance. If you wait until deaths are high, it means you've lost most of the fight with containing cases.

[marshwiggle]

We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term.  I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class.  These are interesting times.

And if face-to-face classes resume in week 2, how many will show up in about week 10 saying "We have face to face classes????"

[polly_mer]

Our local K-12 district just announced closing for 3 weeks with an extended school year to make up the time in person later.  We're waiting for my employer to have some early morning meetings before deciding what to do to ensure we have safe kids (bringing children to work is absolutely forbidden due to the work that we do; we don't even have Take Your Kid to Work days), safe workers (much has been canceled that were going to be large gatherings), and still get time-sensitive work done that cannot be done remotely.

[the_geneticist]

We are in the last week of Winter term and the current plan is to have all classes online for "at least" the first week of Spring term.  I am not optimistic that classes will resume as normal in week 2 OR that we will hear a firm decision on the matter until late in week 1.
I am figuring out how to create a reasonably good online version of at least the first few lab modules in a majors AND a non-majors class.  These are interesting times.

And if face-to-face classes resume in week 2, how many will show up in about week 10 saying "We have face to face classes????"

I know!  I'm anticipating a LOT of students saying that they don't feel safe returning to campus.  My nightmare scenario is upper admin saying we have to offer the lab classes both in-person AND online.  I can have my TAs do one or the other, but I can't have them do both at the same time.

[Anon1787]

The UK is not following the immediately shut down schools and large gatherings strategy because doing it too early makes it unsustainable in the longer run (at least absent an autocratic government like China has). The UK government scientists said that it takes a minimum 13-16 week school closure to have any significant effect (is it realistic that schools would remained closed for the remainder of this term and quite possibly the fall term too?), so the 2-4 week closure that most schools are doing now is nothing more than costly theater like much of the security theater at airports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRadMzCKnCU

UK government scientists start talking @ 31:50.

[Caracal]

The UK is not following the immediately shut down schools and large gatherings strategy because doing it too early makes it unsustainable in the longer run (at least absent an autocratic government like China has). The UK government scientists said that it takes a minimum 13-16 week school closure to have any significant effect (is it realistic that schools would remained closed for the remainder of this term and quite possibly the fall term too?), so the 2-4 week closure that most schools are doing now is nothing more than costly theater like much of the security theater at airports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRadMzCKnCU

UK government scientists start talking @ 31:50.

The thing that following this has driven home to me is that epidemiologists and public health specialists are mostly just trying to make educated guesses, which isn't really that different from what most academics are doing. I'm not claiming they don't have incredibly valuable expertise, that they make stuff up, or that I know better than they do. I just mean that they are basically doing what most of us do in our disciplines, which is take the available evidence and try to draw conclusions about it. It isn't like you can run experiments where you take this new disease and try to figure out what public health measures would work best, so you try to use the evidence from other things and figure out how it might apply.

I also just don't think schools, at least not colleges are only going to close for two weeks. They've just announced that they are only definitely closed that long. But really, I think it is unlikely most will go back to in person classes this semester. You'd have to be in a situation where it felt like the risks were dramatically reduced and that seems, unfortunately, rather unlikely. Secondary schools are a bit different for all kinds of reasons.

[backatit]

Anon, I respect the UK health minister (he has a good background and I've been pretty impressed with his record so far). One thing that has to be mentioned is that they're trying very hard to ramp up the NHS capacity at the same time. So they're not doing nothing in response; they seem to be gearing up for something akin to a wartime siege mentality - asking people to be realistic about what they can do, and to understand that this won't be a war without casualties. Individual companies are responding as best they can - my partner's company has chosen to try to keep the workforce healthy by sending everyone remote (they are in London and felt that the tube commute was just too much of a risk so they are gearing up for a longterm plan, but it's possible given the nature of the business for them to do so). But in some ways it's terrifying - we have elderly relatives and hearing Boris say what he did so casually is a bit jarring. And I'm not sure the NHS will be up to the task (not that I'm sure the US health system will, either).

So I don't know - different countries are trying different things, and we'll hopefully see at the end which works first. I'm sorry to be here rather than there in some ways (we live in the US most of the time, and my job is here - he works remote all the time) but we have kids here and we don't want to leave them with all this going on, and they won't budge.

I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.

I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.

[Caracal]

I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.

I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.

I've seen lots of people saying things like this. This isn't meant to downplay the very real threat. That said, I saw an estimate from a virologist on Twitter that the US probably has 10k to 40k cases at this point. Thats about one for every 8000 people at the high end. Is it possible that you know three people who have come down with it even though you don't live near an area that has picked it up. Sure, of course. Maybe you're in an area where it has spread without detection. Definitely possible. That is almost certainly happening in some places. But, I'd suggest given the current numbers that it is more likely that everyone is more likely to tell people about being sick and and that you are more likely to notice and apply meaning when you hear that someone is mildly sick. People get pneumonia from non-flu viral infections all the time. It has happened to my, otherwise, quite healthy mother in law twice in the last year (which makes us worried about her now)

I had a whole rash of students yesterday on our final day of in person class writing in to say they felt ill and weren't coming. I had to remind myself that I had sent an email telling them to just let me know if they were either at greater risk or feeling at all unwell and that I myself had cancelled class this week because I had a minor cough from a cold. I guess we could find out in a week that a bunch of students got infected, but they probably just had minor illnesses they would have ignored before-or didn't feel like coming to class.

I just worry that if everyone thinks there is already an outbreak in their community, it will actually make it harder for people to deal with it if it actually happens. Of course, people with pneumonia should be getting tested, otherwise we aren't going to learn about these cases till vulnerable people start dying.

[backatit]

One of them has a roommate who HAS tested positive (I don't know how he got the test, but he is in med school, and I believe had traveled to a known area. The group of roommates are quarantined and they are testing the rest of them, and we are awaiting results). The other is a healthcare worker, and they are waiting for the test to come back. We do have one case in our area, but certainly there are other nasties floating around out there and not everything will be zebras.

And it's very likely that the person I know just has pneumonia. I don't think she has any other risk factors. So that may be 2 possible one unlikely (there are three roommates with known exposure - I was counting the healthcare worker as an "unknown"). I should have been clearer.

[Anon1787]

Anon, I respect the UK health minister (he has a good background and I've been pretty impressed with his record so far). One thing that has to be mentioned is that they're trying very hard to ramp up the NHS capacity at the same time. So they're not doing nothing in response; they seem to be gearing up for something akin to a wartime siege mentality - asking people to be realistic about what they can do, and to understand that this won't be a war without casualties. Individual companies are responding as best they can - my partner's company has chosen to try to keep the workforce healthy by sending everyone remote (they are in London and felt that the tube commute was just too much of a risk so they are gearing up for a longterm plan, but it's possible given the nature of the business for them to do so). But in some ways it's terrifying - we have elderly relatives and hearing Boris say what he did so casually is a bit jarring. And I'm not sure the NHS will be up to the task (not that I'm sure the US health system will, either).

So I don't know - different countries are trying different things, and we'll hopefully see at the end which works first. I'm sorry to be here rather than there in some ways (we live in the US most of the time, and my job is here - he works remote all the time) but we have kids here and we don't want to leave them with all this going on, and they won't budge.

I know someone who is sick, but got NO advice from her doctor to self-isolate. So she's been out and about picking up her prescription (for the pneumonia she was diagnosed with - she tested negative for flu and strep). I advised her to call the health department hotline for advice, because she sure sounds like she has symptoms of this to me. I know three people in my community with suspected cases now, and I don't live anywhere near one of the hot spots. None have been tested because they don't meet the criteria. One has really bad lung issues, and I'm worried about her.

I've never been so glad to teach fully online in my life.

I agree, and did not mean to give the impression that the UK is doing nothing. The minister gave some estimates about what the most effective measures are likely to be such as self-isolation for 7 days when experiencing symptoms (though difficult to do). Stopping large gatherings and the like was much less effective, and it should not be done too early (which is the mistake that I believe is being made on our side of the pond) in order to maximize the likelihood that people will actually comply with it (which will go down the longer it lasts). Closing schools also requires that the children not socialize with each other, which, once again, is not likely to happen for a sustained period. So you aren't helping matters if grandparents become the emergency daycare option and children start socializing with each other.

[AmLitHist]

Our spring break for next week has been extended to two weeks for students--they come back, to ONLINE classes, on March 30.

I'd imagine we'll be online at least until mid-April, which would be only a couple of weeks, but I can't imagine we'd go through all that work for any shorter time. 

Only three of us in my department (combined with Reading) are QM-certified, online-trained, and actively teach online.  Combined faculty, including adjuncts, is probably around 30-35 total. Of those, about 25 have no clue at all how to use Blackboard beyond just posting a syllabus (which they usually have someone else do for them), and about the same number are actively, violently anti-online teaching.  Between that and the huge percentage of developmental classes in our combined departments, this ought to be a real mess. 

Luckily I use Bb extensively in my two F2F classes, so I just have to add a few self-tests and discussion boards, and I'm ready for the rest of the semester.  My Comp II students are really good about using Bb, too.

In my town, the governor has shut down all K-12 through the end of the month.

[Caracal]

One of them has a roommate who HAS tested positive (I don't know how he got the test, but he is in med school, and I believe had traveled to a known area. The group of roommates are quarantined and they are testing the rest of them, and we are awaiting results). The other is a healthcare worker, and they are waiting for the test to come back. We do have one case in our area, but certainly there are other nasties floating around out there and not everything will be zebras.

And it's very likely that the person I know just has pneumonia. I don't think she has any other risk factors. So that may be 2 possible one unlikely (there are three roommates with known exposure - I was counting the healthcare worker as an "unknown"). I should have been clearer.

Fair enough, a couple of those do seem pretty concerning. All of this does highlight how bad the testing shortage is. You're never going to catch every case, and even in China the estimates are that probably far more people got it than our in the official numbers, but we just have very little idea what the situation is anywhere.

[dr_codex]

Our spring break for next week has been extended to two weeks for students--they come back, to ONLINE classes, on March 30.

I'd imagine we'll be online at least until mid-April, which would be only a couple of weeks, but I can't imagine we'd go through all that work for any shorter time. 

Only three of us in my department (combined with Reading) are QM-certified, online-trained, and actively teach online.  Combined faculty, including adjuncts, is probably around 30-35 total. Of those, about 25 have no clue at all how to use Blackboard beyond just posting a syllabus (which they usually have someone else do for them), and about the same number are actively, violently anti-online teaching.  Between that and the huge percentage of developmental classes in our combined departments, this ought to be a real mess. 

Luckily I use Bb extensively in my two F2F classes, so I just have to add a few self-tests and discussion boards, and I'm ready for the rest of the semester.  My Comp II students are really good about using Bb, too.

In my town, the governor has shut down all K-12 through the end of the month.

While the numbers are slightly different in my department, the trends are about the same.

I have 3 sections of Comp II. I thought that they were following along with BB, since that was how they submit assignments. Turns out, when I had to start really checking over the last week, only about half of them have logged in at all during that time, despite a steady stream of BB messages/emails from me. I don't want to freak out the conscientious ones, but the people totally off the grid need to wise up and realize that they will fail (more likely, under the circumstances, get an INC grade) if they don't get in touch one way or another, and pronto. I'm aware that there are probably some people with connectivity issues, but they have my work phone number, my cell phone number, and any number of other ways to get in touch.

I hope they aren't really sick.

It hasn't helped that many of my colleagues seem to have taken the guideline to ensure that most of the coursework is done very soon to mean "Give them the final exam next week!!!" Ugh. No wonder the students are panicking.