Humor and Wisdom in a time of Plague...(w/apologies to D. Defoe)

[saffie]

In a cutting edge interview on NPR a couple of days ago, a large New England toilet paper manufacturing co. CEO was to give his views on the hoarding
of such. I missed it. Did anyone here catch it? Perhaps it should be rebroadcast? Expiring minds need to know!

Maybe this from Maine Public Radio? https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/823820779/toilet-paper-startup-ramps-up-and-rolls-in-wake-of-coronavirus-pandemic

I can't remember where I saw it, but one story explained that there are two production paths for toilet paper, one for commercial customers, another for home consumers. Right now, demand is extremely low for one and high for the other, but it's not simple to switch commercial production over to consumer.

[Economizer]

Oh.

[dismalist]

Was this the article?

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

Doesn't make any sense though. Changing suppliers is a telephone call away, and increasing output is also easy. I'm sure it's because manufacturers of both flavors want to obey the anti-gouging laws and won't raise price.

[Economizer]

But, I do not think many TP hoarders knew about that. And, as to production, I am sure that "just in time"delivery stragtegies adopted by producers over previous massive warehousing of goods approaches for logistics did not consider the massive immediate needs forced in pandemic. Huh? So, why the TP hoarding?

[dismalist]

Well, you buy more [hoard] food, you gotta buy more [hoard] toilet paper. What goes in must come out! :-)

[Economizer]

This discussion seems to be going right down the tube.

[marshwiggle]

But, I do not think many TP hoarders knew about that.

Yeah, the timeline doesn't make sense. The run on home TP shouldn't have started until after at least a couple of weeks of people working from home. (Unless there are lots of people who are very conscious of their bathroom habits and anticipated needing more TP when they'd be working from home.)

[apl68]

In a cutting edge interview on NPR a couple of days ago, a large New England toilet paper manufacturing co. CEO was to give his views on the hoarding
of such. I missed it. Did anyone here catch it? Perhaps it should be rebroadcast? Expiring minds need to know!

Maybe this from Maine Public Radio? https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/823820779/toilet-paper-startup-ramps-up-and-rolls-in-wake-of-coronavirus-pandemic

I can't remember where I saw it, but one story explained that there are two production paths for toilet paper, one for commercial customers, another for home consumers. Right now, demand is extremely low for one and high for the other, but it's not simple to switch commercial production over to consumer.

I've seen similar explanations for why some kinds of food items have run short.  The proportion of meals eaten at restaurants abruptly nose-dived, with a corresponding surge in demand for supermarket goods.  Restaurants buy food in bulk packaging unlike much of what is seen in supermarkets.  It has taken time to shift production from the one market to the other. 

Re the toilet paper situation--at our local tissue mill, they produce paper in large runs for each customer (They make it for all the well-known brands.  You probably have something in your bathroom that was made within two miles of where I'm typing this!  Well, maybe that's not really something to brag about...).  Each run is made according to the customer's specs.  So it's plausible that the sudden shift in demand is indeed catching manufacturers flat-footed.  I think our own local mill mostly made consumer TP in the first place, and they're now going all out.  Which still hasn't kept distribution issues and local hoarders from keeping our shelves cleaned out.

[apl68]

But, I do not think many TP hoarders knew about that.

Yeah, the timeline doesn't make sense. The run on home TP shouldn't have started until after at least a couple of weeks of people working from home. (Unless there are lots of people who are very conscious of their bathroom habits and anticipated needing more TP when they'd be working from home.)

Well, now that makes a certain amount of sense.  People who knew that they (and their children) were going to be spending a lot more time at home figured they need to stock up on TP.  That produced a run on the stores, and once that got under way the conventional wisdom became grabbing all you could possibly grab the moment it hit the shelves, resulting in stores selling out of their periodic deliveries almost immediately. 

I've tended to think that relatively few people are actually hoarding ridiculous amounts of it.  It's mainly a matter of tens of millions of people going from buying a little each week to suddenly all wanting two weeks' household supply, plus some for good measure.  Such an extreme change in demand is surely going to produce temporary shortages.

Still not sure why TP has stayed in short supply for weeks now.  Actual use of certain cleaning supplies like bleach and sanitary wipes has gone up tremendously.  But surely people aren't using that much TP!

[marshwiggle]

But, I do not think many TP hoarders knew about that.

Yeah, the timeline doesn't make sense. The run on home TP shouldn't have started until after at least a couple of weeks of people working from home. (Unless there are lots of people who are very conscious of their bathroom habits and anticipated needing more TP when they'd be working from home.)

Well, now that makes a certain amount of sense.  People who knew that they (and their children) were going to be spending a lot more time at home figured they need to stock up on TP.  That produced a run on the stores, and once that got under way the conventional wisdom became grabbing all you could possibly grab the moment it hit the shelves, resulting in stores selling out of their periodic deliveries almost immediately. 

So is there a usual rush just before the Christmas holidays? Before school gets out in June? Before March break?
By the same logic, there should be at all those times if people are buying more in anticipation of everyone spending more time at home. I've never seen that, and I don't recall seeing extra big mountains of TP in stores leading up to those times either.

I've tended to think that relatively few people are actually hoarding ridiculous amounts of it.  It's mainly a matter of tens of millions of people going from buying a little each week to suddenly all wanting two weeks' household supply, plus some for good measure.  Such an extreme change in demand is surely going to produce temporary shortages.

It's way more than two weeks' supply. Do most households use a pack of 12 or 24 in two weeks?? I'd imagine the average person uses maybe a roll a week, and the average household is 3 or 4 people which works out to
a pack of 12 being about 3 weeks' supply and a bag of 24 being about 6 weeks' supply for the average house. (And for households smaller than that it's enough for months.)


Is there anyone here who has a relevant research area? Inquiring minds want to know. This could be your moment of glory.

[mamselle]

There's an intrusive ad in my news feed that can tell you how much TP you'll need based on number of folks in the house, etc.

I've deleted it so often I don't see it anymore.

But if you look for it, it's there...

M.

[marshwiggle]

There's an intrusive ad in my news feed that can tell you how much TP you'll need based on number of folks in the house, etc.

Is that like in case you have no experience to figure it out???? Does it have an accompanying video showing how many squares to tear off at a time?

Oy.

[paultuttle]

In a cutting edge interview on NPR a couple of days ago, a large New England toilet paper manufacturing co. CEO was to give his views on the hoarding
of such. I missed it. Did anyone here catch it? Perhaps it should be rebroadcast? Expiring minds need to know!

Maybe this from Maine Public Radio? https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/823820779/toilet-paper-startup-ramps-up-and-rolls-in-wake-of-coronavirus-pandemic

I can't remember where I saw it, but one story explained that there are two production paths for toilet paper, one for commercial customers, another for home consumers. Right now, demand is extremely low for one and high for the other, but it's not simple to switch commercial production over to consumer.

Perhaps because it's difficult to fit those gigantic rolls the size of automobile wheels into the standard residential dispenser?




Too soon??

<ducks and runs>

[mamselle]

Unrelated to the above:

Metaphoric meaning in astronomy....

   https://www.sciencealert.com/we-might-have-just-found-a-missing-link-black-hole-when-it-ate-a-star

Sort of like, " Urp! That was quite a tasty little star! [BEELCHH!] But why didn't you tel me there were onions in the sauce ??"

M.

[Anselm]

OK, this is sort of funny.  Over at eBay bidders are paying top dollar for Flowbees.  Selling prices have doubled in the past two weeks.