Fall 2020 Enrollment numbers

[Vkw10]

Summer enrollment is higher than usual, especially first session which is online. Fall enrollment and virtual new student orientation sessions are about 8% lower than normal at this point, according to update released this week. University has been told that a 5% reduction in state aid for FY21 is likely. Deans and directors are contingency planning for 10% and 20% budget reductions.

University is marketing degree completion program heavily. Target group is 20-30 age range with 5-6 semesters completed.

[no1capybara]

I'm at a small non-selective regionally focused LAC.  Our incoming first year class is down 35% from this time last year.

[lightning]

My single Fall 2020 online class has a lot more students enrolled than usual at this time. My face to face class for this Fall, has a little bit lower enrollment than in previous years, at this time. I'm teaching a summer class, which has been converted to online (I wasn't given the choice of delivery format, but I'm not arguing the conversion to online). I don't usually teach in the summers, so I don't know if my numbers are higher or lower than usual, but the class is 7 students away from the cap, so it's not going to be an easy class to teach.

[writingprof]

Our incoming first year class is down 35% from this time last year.

Here's a hypothesis someone should test. Colleges that are politically correct enough to say "first-year" will have worse fall enrollment  than colleges that still say "freshman," because the students at the former are wealthy and white enough to take (or to have heard of) "gap years."

Meanwhile, the "freshmen" at my poor benighted college have no choice but to show up in the fall, having never heard that taking a year off is an option.

[Aster]

I believe that it is highly premature to look at current Fall enrollments. Too many people right now are delaying major decisions (like attending college).

I predict a near-universal, massive glut of late summer, last-minute, and late enrollments to most all universities.

But registering for Fall term now? Uh no, a lot of parents and young folks are going to sit on that for a while longer to see if we turn into zombie apocalypse.

[lightning]

Our incoming first year class is down 35% from this time last year.

Here's a hypothesis someone should test. Colleges that are politically correct enough to say "first-year" will have worse fall enrollment  than colleges that still say "freshman," because the students at the former are wealthy and white enough to take (or to have heard of) "gap years."

Meanwhile, the "freshmen" at my poor benighted college have no choice but to show up in the fall, having never heard that taking a year off is an option.

This is really weird to me, but maybe I've been in this business so long, I may not have noticed a shift. It used to be when a graduating high school student said they were taking a "gap year" (and this was  true for wealthy white students), it really meant that they couldn't get into a college that they actually wanted to attend and they didn't want to admit that to their peers, or in the case of middle class/working class students they couldn't afford college and didn't want to admit that to their peers, or they didn't bother applying for college (for students who preferred to enter the workforce right away, but didn't want to say that to all their college-bound peers). IOW, taking a "gap year" was a stigma.

The truly wealthy* (and in some cases famous people) transcend these stigmas, but few kids come from truly wealthy backgrounds (*family with a minimum $6-7 million in liquid assets, apart from retirement/real estate/property like cars/etc., which are assumed to be paid off if lifestyle is not extravagant for income level). 

[polly_mer]

It used to be when a graduating high school student said they were taking a "gap year" (and this was  true for wealthy white students), it really meant that they couldn't get into a college that they actually wanted to attend and they didn't want to admit that to their peers, or in the case of middle class/working class students they couldn't afford college and didn't want to admit that to their peers, or they didn't bother applying for college (for students who preferred to enter the workforce right away, but didn't want to say that to all their college-bound peers). IOW, taking a "gap year" was a stigma.

In contrast, I've never encountered the term "gap year" as a stigma.  Instead, I'm accustomed to the idea that a gap year was a privilege for someone who was enrolled in something akin to the Peace Corps, doing a religious mission, or pursuing some other activity that is most easily done when one is unencumbered with family responsibilities.  People would give public talks before the start of their gap year on what the goal of the gap year was and then would give public talks at the end of the gap year about what their experiences were.  The talks were usually sponsored by a volunteer service organization like Lions Club, Kiwanis, or Jaycees.

I know a fair number of people who didn't go to college right away for a variety of reasons, but no one I know called that a gap year.  People may have been cagey about the exact reasons (e.g., "oh, I'm saving up money by working full time" instead of "I didn't get into a good enough college" or "I'm helping with a sick family member" instead of "we couldn't afford it this year"), but the term "gap year" was a positive for the handful of lucky people, not a stigma.

[Parasaurolophus]

At my HS, students took a "gap year" to do Class Afloat. That was the term's exclusive reference.


Yeah, I know.

[JCu16]

So far our STEM program is slightly depressed relative to numbers in some previous years, but this isn't always a clean judge for what we end up with for freshmen - so I wouldn't say its outside our natural variability as a program over the past 5 years. University wide, prior to COVID we were tracking well and truly above projections, which was nice, but fully expecting to see some constriction. Thats not a good thing though, as a small class last year is still pushing through and driving cuts.

[tuxthepenguin]

I believe that it is highly premature to look at current Fall enrollments. Too many people right now are delaying major decisions (like attending college).

I predict a near-universal, massive glut of late summer, last-minute, and late enrollments to most all universities.

But registering for Fall term now? Uh no, a lot of parents and young folks are going to sit on that for a while longer to see if we turn into zombie apocalypse.

I think a larger than normal last-minute enrollment is a given in these circumstances. I expect some to take a look at the financial aid options and conclude that it's better to enroll than to sit at home playing video games and eating junk food all day. The 'gap year' is unlikely to involve working for pay for most of the would-be college freshman. Community colleges will probably be the biggest beneficiaries.

[polly_mer]

I believe that it is highly premature to look at current Fall enrollments. Too many people right now are delaying major decisions (like attending college).

I predict a near-universal, massive glut of late summer, last-minute, and late enrollments to most all universities.

But registering for Fall term now? Uh no, a lot of parents and young folks are going to sit on that for a while longer to see if we turn into zombie apocalypse.

I think a larger than normal last-minute enrollment is a given in these circumstances. I expect some to take a look at the financial aid options and conclude that it's better to enroll than to sit at home playing video games and eating junk food all day. The 'gap year' is unlikely to involve working for pay for most of the would-be college freshman. Community colleges will probably be the biggest beneficiaries.

I'll bet 500 quatloos on a larger-than-normal summer melt for places that can't be fully face-to-face and their biggest selling point was the full-time, residential experience.  I expect a fair number of people to look at their options and conclude that a year of video games and junk food is better than burning through financial aid for a suboptimal college experience.

The community colleges may indeed pick up additional people who want cheaper classes...if indeed those classes will transfer to the degree they really want.

[no1capybara]

Our incoming first year class is down 35% from this time last year.

Here's a hypothesis someone should test. Colleges that are politically correct enough to say "first-year" will have worse fall enrollment  than colleges that still say "freshman," because the students at the former are wealthy and white enough to take (or to have heard of) "gap years."

Meanwhile, the "freshmen" at my poor benighted college have no choice but to show up in the fall, having never heard that taking a year off is an option.

Hahaha, not sure it's testable in this case - I started to write "freshmen" then changed it to "first year" to not offend anyone.  In any event, the Excel file we get has the columns headings as years.

But my school draws very locally.  We are 100% tuition driven and lot of income comes from student housing.  So it's not a good situation. I predict that more students will be commuting rather than living on campus. I did note that our % of out-of-state applications didn't change and there's no difference in the percent that put down deposits from the last couple years to this year.  Just overall numbers are way down.

[Puget]

I haven't seen numbers for the incoming class yet, but we are worried about international students, who make up ~20% of undergrads and a much larger proportion of some of the masters programs-- even if they want to come, consulates are closed and visas are not being processed. We may have options for them to start online from home and then arrive on campus when their visas come through. The good news is that as a pretty selective university we can probably compensate at least at the undergrad level by going to our domestic wait listed students-- it will be the lucky year for some students on the cusp of admission.

I don't think we'll have a problem with current students not returning at all. So far, my fall class is about where it normally is before the first years enroll in July. Big question is whether I'll be teaching it in person, hybrid, or online -- at least its a big lecture course, so less is lost if we have to go back online then was lost trying to teach my seminar online (though we limbed through OK).

[spork]

If my university doesn't have the usual menu of Division 3 athletics in the fall -- because there simply isn't any intercollegiate competition -- then there will probably be a big drop in the size of the incoming class. Many will decide that playing video games at home, taking community college courses for far less money, and/or working part-time bagging groceries is better than paying for a residential campus experience that lacks the full residential campus experience.

[the_geneticist]

If my university doesn't have the usual menu of Division 3 athletics in the fall -- because there simply isn't any intercollegiate competition -- then there will probably be a big drop in the size of the incoming class. Many will decide that playing video games at home, taking community college courses for far less money, and/or working part-time bagging groceries is better than paying for a residential campus experience that lacks the full residential campus experience.

We don't have the sports, but the rest of this really resonates with our student body.  They WANT to be on campus taking classes in person.   I think we will lose a lot of our "rising sophomores" because they are ending their first year of college by living back at home and taking all classes entirely online.  They hate it, don't think they are getting their money's worth, and are really struggling.  If they are told that next year is more of the same, a lot of them will not come back.